2018 Fantasy Football: 1st RB Ranks

Onward to the RB position, where our cup runneth over (relative to a couple years ago) with feature backs. There are still a bunch of split backfields, but it feels like we see more defined roles than we have in the past. Lastly, with both RBs and WRs this early in the off-season there are a bunch of players on rosters and I start my ranks by using the depth charts on Ourlads.com. I try to sort out how it’s going to end up, but it takes a pretty significant leap to put a player who’s currently 5^th on the RB depth chart and put him 1^st or even 2^nd for rankings purposes.

Note: ADP is draft positional overall, Pos. ADP is draft position with a position group, and Diff. is the difference between my positional rank and the positional ADP.

Rank	Player	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Diff
1	Le'Veon Bell	PIT	1	3	3	-2
2	David Johnson	ARI	1	4	4	-2
3	Todd Gurley	LAR	1	1	1	2
4	Alvin Kamara	NO	1	6	5	-1
5	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	1	2	2	3
6	LeSean McCoy	BUF	1	19	12	-6

Why after like 15 years of LeSean McCoy are we still underestimating his ability to produce in good and bad situations. He’s been the most consistent producer of the top RBs outside of Bell.

Rank	Player	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Diff
7	Saquon Barkley	NYG	2	8	6	1
8	Melvin Gordon	LAC	2	11	9	-1
9	Kareem Hunt	KC	2	10	8	1
10	Devonta Freeman	ATL	2	18	11	-1
11	Jerick McKinnon	SF	2	15	15	-4
12	Dalvin Cook	MIN	2	15	10	2
13	Leonard Fournette	JAC	2	9	7	6
14	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	2	24	14	0

Leonard Fournette is immensely talented, but he’s had ankle or foot issues for multiple seasons in a row, between Jacksonville and LSU. I think he’s going to be a high functioning RB2, but I don’t think I want to build a roster around him like you would have to at pick 9 in the first round.

Rank	Player	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Diff
15	Jordan Howard	CHI	3	22	13	2
16	Tevin Coleman	ATL	3	65	29	-13
17	Dion Lewis	TEN	3	63	28	-11
18	Lamar Miller	HOU	3	52	25	-7
19	Joe Mixon	CIN	3	28	16	3
20	Rex Burkhead	NE	3	93	37	-17
21	Ronald Jones II	TB	3	51	24	-3
22	Derrius Guice	WAS	3	42	21	1
23	C.J. Anderson	CAR	3	102	41	-18
24	Alex Collins	BAL	3	37	19	5

Hey, look at that, tier 3 is Brock starts to argue with the ADP tier once again. People are low on Coleman again this season, and although I’m a touch high (RB 16, he finished 2017 RB 22 on ESPN) I think in a walk year he’s involved in the passing game a bit more. Dion Lewis is going to rise up rankings as we learn more about the split in Tennessee. He’s an injury risk for sure but even with conservative usage last year in NE in the first half of the year he was still solidly a RB2 last season. With Lewis gone from NE someone has to pick up the slack and as of right now it’s my belief that will be Burkhead. Burkhead, unlike Gillislee or Hill, is useful both as a runner and a pass catcher allowing the Pats offense to be more versatile, much like Lewis. Lastly, we have C.J. Anderson. Jonathan Stewart saw at least 10 rushes in 13 games and at least 15 in 6 games last season. Anderson is the likely successor to that role and a functional replacement for Stewart. An RB2 spot may be a bit high but right now his role is more concrete than say Jones/Henry/Drake/Ajayi in Tier 4.

Rank	Player	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Diff
25	Duke Johnson	CLE	4	104	42	-17
26	Chris Thompson	WAS	4	95	38	-12
27	Mark Ingram	NO	4	49	23	4
28	Marshawn Lynch	OAK	4	69	31	-3
29	Aaron Jones	GB	4	98	39	-10
30	Derrick Henry	TEN	4	32	17	13
31	Kenyan Drake	MIA	4	34	18	13
32	Isaiah Crowell	NYJ	4	82	35	-3
33	Carlos Hyde	CLE	4	68	30	3
34	Theo Riddick	DET	4	144	53	-19
35	Marlon Mack	IND	4	73	32	3
36	Jay Ajayi	PHI	4	39	20	16
37	Tarik Cohen	CHI	4	89	36	1
38	Gio Bernard	CIN	4	129	46	-8

The fourth tier is a hodge-podge of receiving backs and lead backs I’m wary of. As we get into the RB3s there are obviously going to be question marks for guys like Johnson, Thompson, and Riddick those question marks are the total carries they’ll get in any given game and the variance that comes along with being the primary pass catching back. The Browns will be improved and while Johnson will see less snaps lining up in the slot with Landry in town, the Browns resigned him for a reason. We presume. Johnson has one other thing over Hyde and Chubb. Johnson is set in his receiving and spill back role while Hyde and Chubb battle it out over the main back role in Cleveland. Thompson is coming off of an injury, but in a backfield that is full of unproven or underperforming talent Thompson is the constant and a great safety net/check down option for Smith with Reed’s health and issue at TE. I’m not sure why Riddick is 15 spots behind Thompson and 11 behind Johnson at ADP (I realized while writing that he’s 9 behind Johnson for me. SHHH!!!). Riddick is one of the most consisted pass catching options out of the backfield. Yes, Golladay is probably going to make the Lions WR rich with Tate and Jones already being solid contributors, but Riddick is a matchup nightmare in the middle of the field and there isn’t much left TE with Ebron’s departure. Now for the trio of players that I’m lower on than consensus. Starting with Henry and Drake. Both teams brought in veterans to join this pair in their respective backfields, and both teams have shown an unwillingness to make either player it’s feature back in their careers. It doesn’t mean that either is incapable, but at some point, the players and teams have to both put up or shut up on whether Henry or Drake can be the bell cow many in fantasy twitter believe they can be. Lastly, in this tier is Ajayi. Most of what I said about Henry/Drake applies to Ajayi with one difference, Philly didn’t bring in a veteran. They did, however, make a Super Bowl run in which they gave him 15/18/9 rush attempts with a backup QB at the helm. Clement, and returning vet Sproles, are going to be big factors in the passing game and the Dolphins gave him 260 rushes in 2016 and gave up on him half way through the next season. I hope I’m wrong on Ajayi fantasy-wise, I thought he got a raw deal in the draft with his knee issues out of Boise State, but the hype is too rich for my blood at a RB2 price.

Rank	Player	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Diff
39	Bilal Powell	NYJ	5	131	48	-9
40	Frank Gore	MIA	5	167	59	-19
41	Devantae Booker	DEN	5	115	44	-3
42	Royce Freeman	DEN	5	62	27	15
43	Chris Carson	SEA	5	143	52	-9
44	Kenneth Dixon	BAL	5	196	65	-21
45	Ameer Abdullah	DET	5	269	80	-35
46	Rashaad Penny	SEA	5	48	22	24
47	Spencer Ware	KC	5	218	69	-22
48	Austin Ekeler	LAC	5	164	58	-10
49	D'Onta Foreman	HOU	5	108	43	6

Frank Gore is a conundrum wrapped in an enigma. He’s been a remarkably consistent force in fantasy football over the past decade and as I pointed out in the tier above makes my ranks of both him and Drake difficult. If we start to get more inclination of the usage of each player as the off-season continues Gore probably drops but as of now with the Dolphins refusal to completely commit to Drake, Gore is worth a dart throw in the RB4 range. Freeman is the sixth biggest difference in this range, but I want to hit on him real quick. I like Freeman and don’t care all that much for Booker but there isn’t great clarity here so I’m going to temper my expectations for both. Now to a great of players that I’m 2-3 tiers off on (tier here being top 12/24/36/48/60). The sole player I’m lower on considerably is Rashaad Penny. Penny wasn’t my favorite back in the draft and landed behind a horrible offensive line and with an underrated Carson coming back from injury. Carson has had just as much good pub this off-season as the rookie and has shown an ability to perform reasonably well behind that offensive line. Penny was a liability as a pass blocker in college, which is at least a slight hinderance to full time back ability as his RB 22 positional ADP would suggest he is. The reset of the tier are players I’m much higher on than everybody else. Dixon was the running back of choice last off-season and he’s going to have to knock off incumbent and 2017 surprise Alex Collins but right now I like him a lot more than many other depth chart RB2s. Abdullah on the other hand is still listed as the RB1 on the Detroit depth chart and although I think he no longer curries favor with the Lions front office I couldn’t drop him much farther right now. Spencer Ware is the second most talented back in KC and was ahead of West on the depth chart before his injury last season. Needless to say, I like a lot of backs in this tier and will probably take a few of these lottery tickets in best ball leagues.

Rank	Player	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Diff
50	Jordan Wilkins	IND	6	217	68	-18
51	James White	NE	6	140	51	0
52	Javorius Allen	BAL	6	186	62	-10
53	Nyheim Hines	IND	6	146	55	-2
54	Rod Smith	DAL	6	279	82	-28
55	Latavius Murray	MIN	6	145	54	1
56	Jonathan Stewart	NYG	6	219	70	-14
57	Matt Breida	SF	6	157	56	1
58	Corey Clement	PHI	6	130	47	11
59	Nick Chubb	CLE	6	101	40	19
60	Chris Ivory	BUF	6	245	74	-14
61	T.J. Yeldon	JAC	6	193	63	-2
62	Jamaal Williams	GB	6	78	33	29
63	Ty Montgomery	GB	6	133	49	14
64	Charles Sims	TB	6	304	86	-22
65	Sony Michel	NE	6	57	26	39
66	Chase Edmonds	ARI	6	302	85	-19
67	Doug Martin	OAK	6	137	50	17

I’m going to focus on players with at least 18 rankings difference. So, we’ll start with a backfield battle I find interesting, the Indianapolis Colts. Mack is probably the starter week 1, but I’m not sure he’s a complete back much like Hines the first of two backs drafted this year. Joining Hines and Mack in Wilkins whom I believe is the most well rounded of the backs. Where Mack and Hines are big play threats who butter their bread on the outside more often than between the tackles. Wilkins proved at Ole Miss an ability to be useful both inside and out, and to some extent in the passing game. I like Wilkins more than Hines right now, but this is a battle that will fascinate throughout camp. Rod Smith is dangerously underrated. As we get into full blown backup running back territory Rod Smith is in sole possession of the RB2 role in Dallas and a great position to get work if something happens with Elliott. This tier also has a bevy of rookies and Chubb may be the most overrated in fantasy this year. I’m a big fan of Nick Chubb as a player but he’s currently the third back on the Browns roster, behind FA addition Carlos Hyde and receiving back, and recently re-signed, Duke Johnson. I think Chubb can beat Hyde over time but as we enter the season he’s clearly the RB3 there and being draft at least a RB tier too high. I’m probably too low on Jamaal Williams but the Packers backfield right now is a mystery even here in NE Wisconsin. Williams and Jones were both good in there times as the lead back and although I prefer Jones’ talent Williams probably deserves better than high end RB6. The Charles Sims and, skipping ahead, Jacquizz Rodgers hate has gone too far. Yes, Ronald Jones was drafted and will probably be the starting running back in Tampa Bay but both Sims and Rodgers have been useful players in fantasy and real life and neither should be this low when their only barrier to entry is a good, not great, rookie running back ahead of them on the depth chart. Sony Michel is going to be a player I’m extremely tepid on until we see something at least somewhat concrete about his role in New England. On the Patriots depth chart on Ourlads is currently RB5. Yes, the Pats spent a 1^st round pick on him and he fits well into the Pats preference for versatility but Burkhead provides similar versatility, White provides a serious threat in the passing game, and Hill or Gillislee is going to be the power back. Michel is going to be a major part of this attack at some point in the future, but right now he’s likely 3^rd or 4^th on the depth chart even after cuts to the roster. Lastly, in this tier is Edmonds. The Fordham product was a stud in college and only has a lackluster Elijah Penny to beat out as the full time backup to David Johnson.

Rank	Player	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Diff
68	Jacquizz Rodgers	TB	7	294	84	-16
69	C.J. Prosise	SEA	7	255	77	-8
70	Kerryon Johnson	DET	7	81	34	36
71	John Kelly	LAR	7	262	78	-7
72	LeGarrette Blount	DET	7	126	45	27
73	Mike Gillislee	NE	7	270	81	-8
74	Rob Kelley	WAS	7	304	86	-12
75	Charcandrick West	KC	7	304	86	-11
76	Boston Scott	NO	7	304	86	-10
77	Kallen Ballage	MIA	7	195	64	13
78	Justin Jackson	LAC	7	304	86	-8
79	James Conner	PIT	7	304	86	-7
80	De'Angelo Henderson	DEN	7	241	73	7
81	Corey Grant	JAC	7	304	86	-5
82	Jalen Richard	OAK	7	304	86	-4
83	Donnel Pumphrey	PHI	7	304	86	-3
84	Joe Williams	SF	7	304	86	-2
85	Wayne Gallman	NYG	7	236	72	13
86	Wendell Smallwood	PHI	7	304	86	0
87	Malcolm Brown	LAR	7	304	86	1

This tier 7 is where we come to the end of ADP data, and if we’re honest your patience and attention. So, this discussion is about another of the fascinating backfield competitions in Detroit. As we talked about earlier, Abdullah certainly doesn’t have many friends in Detroit but there isn’t much clarity to the situation. Detroit brought in LaGarrette Blount in FA, drafted Kerry Johnson in the second, and still have stud receiving back Theo Riddick on the roster. So, Johnson or Blount will almost certainly take over a two-down role on the Lions but will it be back and forth, a split backfield with four backs, or a drastic switch in the way the offense is run. I don’t know and at this point we lack info. Bumping either up a tier, tier and a half is probably worthwhile but I’m not sure I want any back in Detroit outside of Riddick.

Rank	Player	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Diff
91	Cameron Artis-Payne	CAR	8	291	83	8
94	Elijah McGuire	NYJ	8	213	67	27
101	Peyton Barber	TB	8	158	57	44
103	Samaje Perine	WAS	8	182	61	42
106	Jonathan Williams	NO	9	253	76	30
114	Darren Sproles	PHI	9	267	79	35
123	Jeremy Hill	NE	9	210	66	57

This last grouping is just players that had ADP data and were in tier 8 or 9. McGuire is RB3 with the Giants and to me isn’t really a factor behind Stewart and Barkley. Barber is RB4 in Tampa and is valuable in my mind only if Jones gets injured, which may be more likely than this rank with Jones’ soft tissue injury history. For Semaje Perine just combine everything I said for the Lions duo above, mix it with the McGuire sentence, and for his sacks hope the talent we saw as a freshman at Oklahoma shines through. Someone is going to pick up carries early in the year for the Saints with the Mark Ingram suspension and if the Jonathan Williams we saw at Arkansas, or that one year in Buffalo, show up it could very well be Jonathan Williams. Williams wasn’t out of football last year for no reason however and I think it’s much more likely that Scott or Lasco get those opportunities to shine next to Aiken than Williams. Darren Sproles is in his third decade in the league at 55 years old (none of that is true) and many expect him to have an impact for the Eagles. That said, his role was usurped by Core Clement last season and although I personally hope we get one more quintessential Sproles year, I’m not overly optimistic the diminutive 34-year-old has the ability, or will be given the opportunity, to do it. Lastly, for this set of rankings is Jeremy Hill. Hill is one of the four in front of Michel on the NE depth chart and based on this rank, it is clear I think Hill gets cut from the RB depth. Hill has shown flashes but at this point in his career is mostly seen as a plodding between the tackles power back, who might not actually be good at that either.

RB is always fascinating and we’re almost always way off on where it all settles out but it’s a deeper position than most of recent memory and has a number of extremely interesting battle to watch as we progress through camp and the pre-season.