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Monday, June 18, 2018

2018 Fantasy Football: 1st WR Ranks


WR is as deep as it’s been recently, but with the rest of the skill positions being deeper than recent drafts with influxes of talent it seems like there has been a bit of a devaluation this year. That doesn’t mean that the position isn’t still important or a good place to find values and boost your chances of winning.
Note: ADP is draft positional overall, Pos. ADP is draft position with a position group, and Diff. is the difference between my positional rank and the positional ADP.

Rank
Player
Pos
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Diff
1
Antonio Brown
1
PIT
1
5
1
0
2
Julio Jones
2
ATL
1
13
4
-2
3
DeAndre Hopkins
3
HOU
1
7
2
1
4
Odell Beckham Jr
4
NYG
1
12
3
1
5
A.J. Green
5
CIN
1
16
6
-1
6
Michael Thomas
6
NO
1
14
5
1

Yep.

Rank
Player
Pos
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Diff
7
Keenan Allen
7
LAC
2
17
7
0
8
Davante Adams
8
GB
2
20
8
0
9
Doug Baldwin
9
SEA
2
29
11
-2
10
Allen Robinson
10
CHI
2
44
19
-9
11
Mike Evans
11
TB
2
21
9
2

More yep and Allen Robinson. I like Robinson a lot more than everyone else. I think he instantly becomes Trubisky’s favorite target and although they added some other targets to the offense I expect Robinson to be a solid WR1 this season.

Rank
Player
Pos
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Diff
12
Adam Thielen
12
MIN
3
31
13
-1
13
T.Y. Hilton
13
IND
3
30
12
1
14
Tyreek Hill
14
KC
3
27
10
4
15
Demaryius Thomas
15
DEN
3
43
18
-3
16
Larry Fitzgerald
16
ARI
3
41
17
-1
17
Josh Gordon
17
CLE
3
40
16
1
18
Stefon Diggs
18
MIN
3
38
15
3

Yep times three. I’m a touch low on Hill, but even then I’m not all that far off.

Rank
Player
Pos
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Diff
19
Marvin Jones
19
DET
4
55
23
-4
20
JuJu Smith-Schuster
20
PIT
4
47
22
-2
21
Alshon Jeffery
21
PHI
4
46
21
0
22
Corey Davis
22
TEN
4
77
31
-9
23
Jarvis Landry
23
CLE
4
58
24
-1
24
Amari Cooper
24
OAK
4
36
14
10
25
Sammy Watkins
25
KC
4
71
28
-3
26
Golden Tate
26
DET
4
59
25
1
27
Kenny Stills
27
MIA
4
120
47
-20
28
Josh Doctson
28
WAS
4
138
54
-26
29
Michael Crabtree
29
BAL
4
64
26
3
30
Marqise Lee
30
JAC
4
125
52
-22
31
Emmanuel Sanders
31
DEN
4
88
38
-7

Tier 4 is where I start to diverge a bit more significantly from ADP. Corey Davis was a favorite of mine last year post-draft and although he was hampered by injuries we saw the upside late in the year and the playoffs for Davis. I think year 2 shows fully his ability and I’m high overall on the Titans offense. Where I’m high on Davis I’m low on Cooper by just about the same amount. I’m low on Oakland as a whole, but Cooper has been inconsistent in his time in the NFL and although he’s talented I don’t think the TD issues, or the Carr issues, get cleared up this season. Davante Parker has shown an inability to separate with any consistency in the NFL and at some point we have to shift our expectation of what Parker can be. Stills has been sneaky good since his move from NO to MIA and is the most consistent deep threat on the Dolphins the last couple of seasons. Same goes for Doctson, yes, the Redskins added Paul Richardson to the receiving corps, but I think Richardson takes more away from the Crowder/TE production than from Doctson’s. Before the ridiculous 2014 WR class it was well held knowledge that it took receivers about three seasons to reach their potential and adjust to the NFL game. I’m fully on board the Doctson break out train. Marqise Lee isn’t a great wide receiver but he’s the number one option on the Jaguars and that’s a useful asset to have on your fantasy football team.

Rank
Player
Pos
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Diff
32
Devin Funchess
32
CAR
5
75
29
3
33
Marquise Goodwin
33
SF
5
86
36
-3
34
Julian Edelman
34
NE
5
70
27
7
35
Randall Cobb
35
GB
5
105
42
-7
36
Cooper Kupp
36
LAR
5
84
34
2
37
Will Fuller
37
HOU
5
87
37
0
38
Sterling Shephard
38
NYG
5
113
45
-7
39
Brandin Cooks
39
LAR
5
45
20
19
40
Chris Hogan
40
NE
5
85
35
5
41
Rishard Matthews
41
TEN
5
123
50
-9
42
Robby Anderson
42
NYJ
5
96
39
3
43
Kelvin Benjamin
43
BUF
5
106
43
0
44
Nelson Agholor
44
PHI
5
109
44
0
45
Martavis Bryant
45
OAK
5
127
53
-8
46
Devante Parker
46
MIA
5
100
40
6

Only one real big difference in tier 5, Brandin Cooks. I think he finds himself in the Sammy Watkins conundrum from a year ago. No, Cooks didn’t join the team shortly before the season, but he takes over the WR1 role in the offense and the attention of a division with a ridiculous amount of CB talent. Cooks is fast and will have a role, but like Watkins it’s highly likely that he’ll be the decoy that McVey uses to take attention away from the rest of the offensive game plan. I don’t think he has as bad a year as Watkins last season, but I think for the first time he’ll see the downside of three teams in three seasons.

Rank
Player
Pos
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Diff
47
Terrance Williams
47
DAL
6
285
97
-50
48
Donte Moncrief
48
JAC
6
203
72
-24
49
Mohamed Sanu
49
ATL
6
177
64
-15
50
Geronimo Allison
50
GB
6
229
79
-29
51
Chris Godwin
51
TB
6
199
71
-20
52
Michael Gallup
52
DAL
6
152
58
-6
53
Robert Woods
53
LAR
6
76
30
23
54
DJ Moore
54
CAR
6
121
48
6
55
Quincy Enunwa
55
NYJ
6
222
77
-22
56
Tyler Lockett
56
SEA
6
169
63
-7
57
Kenny Golladay
57
DET
6
153
59
-2
58
Taywan Taylor
58
TEN
6
303
105
-47
59
Jamison Crowder
59
WAS
6
103
41
18
60
Tyrell Williams
60
LAC
6
188
68
-8
61
Ted Ginn Jr
61
NO
6
160
61
0
62
Pierre Garcon
62
SF
6
79
32
30
63
Jordy Nelson
63
OAK
6
83
33
30

Here we go, bottom of the WR4s and we have 9 differences over 20, and 4 greater than 30 spots. We start with the biggest difference, Terrance Williams. Like it or not he’s the #1 target on a team that lost its WR1 & TE1. I personally like Gallup (WR 52), and this receiving corps is going to be just the worst to rank, but as of now I couldn’t bring myself to rank the top outside receiver on a team much lower. A similar argument leads to the Moncrief ranking. He’s the #2 in Jacksonville, and with my tepid excitement for Marqise Lee, means I have him ranked considerably higher than the current consensus. Geronimo Allison is the #3 in Green Bay, for now, the battle for GB WR3 is going to be fascinating. In much the same way, the battle for who starts across from Mike Evans in Tampa is a transition that will be intriguing. If Tampa starts to play their two TEs more often, that WR2 is going to be much more valuable than the WR3 and thus the ranking of Godwin. Godwin started to come on late in the year and has continued to shine early in this pre-season. Woods’ drop is directly linked to two things: 1) That I think Cooks will have a more productive, if lackluster, season than Watkins. 2) That Kupp will continue to see a bunch of targets as a valuable safety valve in the slot for Goff. WR battle of intrigue #3 will happen during Jets training camp. Robby Anderson is the deep threat for the Jets and Enunwa is more of a possession receiver. They have both functioned as the #1 receiver in the past and bring different skill sets. I have Anderson 13 spots higher than Enunwa because he brings more upside due to his ability to stretch the field, but it will be interesting to see who wins the QB battle and who is developing report during Jets camp. Remember how I said I’m high on the Titans offense this season, well I’m really high, and Taywan Taylor is the true breakout player for Tennessee this year. Taylor is the primary slot player in Tennessee with Davis and Matthews on the outside. He was better than expectations as a rookie and if LeFleur has learned anything from Shannahan and McVay it almost certainly starts with the impact a slot receiver can have on a modern NFL offense. Lastly, are a pair of older vets who are probably secondary options on their respective teams. Garcon has featured heavily on Shanahan’s offenses in the past and that has lead many to presume that he will resume that production this year. I’m skeptical but there’s a nice logic to it. Nelson is on his first non-Packers team of his career and has been garnering rave reviews from Derek Carr in minicamp. Nelson took a step back last year with the Packers but the role vacated by Crabtree is open and Nelson will surely give himself every opportunity to pick up that slack.

Rank
Player
Pos
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Diff
64
Brandon Lafell
64
CIN
7
303
105
-41
65
Willie Snead
65
BAL
7
283
96
-31
66
DeSean Jackson
66
TB
7
151
57
9
67
Paul Richardson
67
WAS
7
149
56
11
68
Mike Wallace
68
PHI
7
198
70
-2
69
Jordan Matthews
69
NE
7
207
73
-4
70
Ryan Grant
70
IND
7
256
86
-16
71
Trent Taylor
71
SF
7
290
101
-30
72
Calvin Ridley
72
ATL
7
124
51
21
73
Cole Beasley
73
DAL
7
234
81
-8
74
Christian Kirk
74
ARI
7
162
62
12
75
Travis Benjamin
75
LAC
7
303
105
-30
76
John Ross
76
CIN
7
246
85
-9
77
Danny Amendola
77
MIA
7
179
65
12
78
Jermaine Kearse
78
NYJ
7
280
94
-16
79
Corey Coleman
79
CLE
7
214
76
3
80
Courtland Sutton
80
DEN
7
232
80
0
81
Taylor Gabriel
81
CHI
7
303
105
-24
82
DJ Chark
82
JAC
7
242
84
-2
83
John Brown
83
BAL
7
259
87
-4
84
Austin Carr
84
NO
7
303
105
-21
85
Allen Hurns
85
DAL
7
116
46
39
86
J.J. Nelson
86
ARI
7
303
105
-19
87
Chris Conley
87
KC
7
303
105
-18

Tier 7 is a large tier (24 players) and features a plethora of different roles and types of receivers. Lafell is the #2, for now, on the Bengals and although not a good offense by any means. At this point he’s a WR6 on my board and won’t cost you much to take a flier. Snead finds himself as the outside receiver across from Crabtree in Baltimore and everything I just said about Lafell applies here as well. Trent Taylor was over shadowed as a surprise breakout receiver by Cooper Kupp in his own division. Taylor should continue to be the WR3 in what is expected to be a good SF offense and the primary slot threat. Let’s compare the tier below for a moment. ADP has Benjamin and Mike Williams switched from me and I’m open to this flipping. Right now, I’ll stick with the solid vet but Williams can stay healthy this off-season and progress I’ll quickly switch my thoughts about the Chargers receiving corps. Moving to Chicago, Taylor Gabriel has been a productive number three for years in Atlanta and should be a fun addition for Chicago. He’ll fly under the radar, but he will help stretch a defense and open up space for whomever wins the slot job or the TEs. Let’s quick hit the last four. Carr was the camp breakout in NE last year but never really materialized but lands in NO with his second straight HOF QB. Hurns had his moments in Jacksonville but fell off the map after a breakout year. He has a hill to climb in Dallas but could fly up my ranks if a starting slot or larger role than currently expected becomes his. JJ Nelson might be just a guy again in Arizona but he’s a known quantity in Arizona unlike most of his receiving corps mates. Lastly, Conley has never reached the potential many of us expected and with the addition of Watkins this may be the last year I put much into expectations for him.

Rank
Player
Pos
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Diff
88
Daurice Fountain
88
IND
8
303
105
-17
89
DeAngelo Yancey
89
GB
8
303
105
-16
90
KeKe Coutee
90
HOU
8
300
103
-13
91
Mike Williams
91
LAC
8
155
60
31
92
Brandon Marshall
92
SEA
8
208
74
18
93
Zay Jones
93
BUF
8
303
105
-12
94
Darrius Heyward-Bey
94
PIT
8
303
105
-11
95
Torrey Smith
95
CAR
8
303
105
-10
96
Jeremy Kerley
96
BUF
8
303
105
-9
97
Adam Humphries
97
TB
8
303
105
-8
98
James Washington
98
PIT
8
237
82
16
99
Cameron Meredith
99
NO
8
141
55
44
100
T.J. Jones
100
DET
8
303
105
-5
101
Laquon Treadwell
101
MIN
8
303
105
-4
102
Anthony Miller
102
CHI
8
187
67
35
103
Chad Williams
103
ARI
8
265
90
13
104
Dede Westbrook
104
JAC
8
180
66
38
105
Rashad Greene
105
JAC
8
303
105
0
106
Chris Moore
106
BAL
8
303
105
1
107
Deon Cain
107
IND
8
303
105
2
108
Dante Pettis
108
SF
8
212
75
33
109
J'Mon Moore
109
GB
8
293
102
7
110
Tyler Boyd
110
CIN
8
303
105
5
111
Tajae Sharpe
111
TEN
8
303
105
6
112
Josh Reynolds
112
LAR
8
303
105
7
113
Ryan Switzer
113
OAK
8
303
105
8
114
Jaron Brown
114
SEA
8
281
95
19
115
Bruce Ellington
115
HOU
8
303
105
10
116
Keelan Cole
116
JAC
8
191
69
47
117
Malcolm Mitchell
117
NE
8
286
98
19
118
DaeSean Hamilton
118
DEN
8
289
100
18

I already addressed Williams when talking about Benjamin above. Unlike Williams, I’ll take the younger player in New Orleans. Meredith was a surprise in Chicago in 2016 but a season ending injury left as a FA this year and Chicago let him leave for the Big Easy where he’s third or fourth on the depth chart right now. I like Carr talent-wise more than Meredith but will watch how this sifts out going forward. I’m lower on rookies in general heading into the season because they don’t develop as fast as we would like. He’ll fight for the starting slot spot in Chicago, but I don’t expect all that much from him. Apply that to Dante Pettis as well. As we head to players in my bottom two tiers who have ADP data, let’s take one last look at Jacksonville through the Westbrook and Cole ranks. This is the reaction to the Moncrief rank. I think he’s the #2 pretty clearly right now and although both Westbrook and Cole have had their flashes I’m not sure that any more than two receivers see consistent enough targets and playing time to prop up the depth they have that hasn’t really separated itself to this point.

Rank
Player
Pos
Team
Tier
ADP
Pos.
ADP
Diff
129
Terrelle Pryor
129
NYJ
9
223
78
51
166
Albert Wilson
166
MIA
10
239
83
83
136
Tre'Quan Smith
136
NO
9
261
88
48
119
Chester Rogers
119
IND
9
264
89
30
189
Antonio Callaway
189
CLE
10
273
91
98
138
Equanimeous St. Brown
138
GB
10
278
93
45
211
Amara Darboh
211
SEA
10
288
99
112
144
Kevin White
144
CHI
10
301
104
40

I’m just not a Pryor believer and wasn’t last year. I think Enunwa and Anderson are the only receivers I care about on the Jets and that Pryor hasn’t progressed as well as was presumed when he left Cleveland. Albert Wilson is a #FantasyTwitter darling but that Miami offenses most likely won’t produce enough to carry three or four fantasy relevant receivers. I like Smith for the future but he’s going to need a gap year before he makes an impact in the NFL. With Rogers, ask me about the Colts offense later. For Callaway, see: Smith, Tre’Quan. I don’t get the St. Brown love, he slid, was the third of a trio of late round Packer receiver picks and refuses to play special teams which doesn’t bode well for a sixth wide receiver trying to make the team. Darboh and White are draft favorites who didn’t make the early impact expected of them. White can’t stay healthy, hopefully he can in 2018. Too much was expected of Darboh last year, but the addition of Marshall makes it seem like the Seahawks aren’t all that impressed or confident in the depth currently on the roster.

There are a handful of interesting receiving corps battles heading into camp that will greatly alter tiers 4-8. That plus injuries and the ever-evolving offensive landscapes makes archetypes that have been in play for many years in fantasy less reliable than ever. This is personally my favorite position group to ponder, discuss, and rank each season and this year will almost certainly be no different.

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