2019 Fantasy Football: 1st Rankings: Position - Tight Ends

Tight end falls off a cliff like no other position and that includes RB. You go from the consensus top 3 and then you start to have questions from four on down. There’s a lot of promise and talent at the position in the league overall, it’s just paired with quite a bit of uncertainty.

Note: Player | Team | My Overall Rank | My Positional Rank | ADP Overall Rank | ADP Positional Rank

Elite Tier (1-3)	The Good Tier (4-7)
Travis Kelce | KC | xx | 1 | 16 | 1	Evan Engram | NYG | xx | 4 | 57 | 5
George Kittle | SF | xx | 2 | 25 | 3	O.J. Howard | TB | xx | 5 | 56 | 4
Zach Ertz | PHI | xx | 3 | 22 | 2	Hunter Henry | LAC | xx | 6 | 68 | 6
	David Njoku | CLE | xx | 7 | 87 | 9

Not much to see here, we’ll get to the top 7 guy from ADP who’s not in this group, but other than that certain someone missing it’s all straightforward up top.

Good Spots but Lingering Questions Tier (8-12)	The Really Good but Oft Injured Tier (13-15)
Vance McDonald | PIT | xx | 8 | 107 | 10	Jordan Reed | WAS | xx | 13 | 157 | 19
Austin Hooper | ATL | xx | 9 | 108 | 11	Greg Olsen | CAR | xx | 14 | 148 | 17
Jimmy Graham | GB | xx | 10 | 160 | 20	Tyler Eifert | CIN | xx | 15 | 198 | 24
Jack Doyle | IND | xx | 11 | 164 | 21
Jared Cook | NO | xx | 12 | 80 | 8

Tier three brings us a group of five players that I don’t know how to order. McDonald and Hooper are valued pretty close to consensus, but both may have hit their peaks last season. Their continued improvement therefore is based on 80+ targets and better TD luck than last year (both had 4 TDs) and that makes them high floor/low ceiling options. The rest of the tier needs a bit more explanation and we’ll start with the elephant in the room… Jimmy Graham. Graham fell out of favor last season in fantasy because of inconsistent production and a seeming inability to assimilate into the Packers offense. This wasn’t a complete surprise as he was playing for a Mike McCarthy offense that requires TEs to play in line and block, a trait that Graham has never developed in his career. Despite these issues, Graham still saw 89 targets last season and averaged 11.6 yards per catch. He is almost certainly due for some touchdown regression (only 2 in 2018) based on his targets and with a change in HC/offense Graham will hopefully played in the slot or in a pseudo H-back role to get him space and utilize his optimal skill set. As for Doyle, well he was clearly Indy’s top TE target when he was on the field in 2018 and on his target pace in 2018 he would have seen right around 80 targets in a very good passing game helmed by Andrew Luck. He’s going to share snaps with Ebron but he showed he was a viable option in the first six weeks last year with Ebron on the team. Lastly in tier 3, is Jared Cook who is going to be good but not blow your socks off good like some seem to think. On the positive side of the ledger Benjamin Watson was the third most targeted player on the 2018 New Orleans Saints and was efficient (11.4 yards per catch). That said Watson only saw 46 targets, I expect Tre’Quan Smith to add to his role in the club (44 targets last year) and even Kamara or Thomas are less involved in the passing the Saints have seen a decrease in their pass plays each of the last two seasons (674 in ’16, 536 in ’17, and 519 in ’18) as Drew Brees ages. Cook will be a good fantasy option but he’s going to come back down to earth this year as the most optimistic scenario is that he see 40% less targets than last year.

Moving out of my TE1s the fourth tier is filled with players that have a long list of injury concerns but when healthy might win you your fantasy league. Reed is the top of this trio because his highs are the highest when all three have the same floor (i.e. 0 points). Reed is coming off the most games played in a season (13) since his third year in the league, he saw 84 targets and had a healthy 10.3 yards per reception. He did post the lowest catch rate of his career but considering he hovered around 76% in every year before this, a decrease in competent quarterbacking almost assuredly hampered that last season. Olsen is the one that is closest in rank to ADP but is a worrisome case. He fractured his foot early in the 2017 season and came back a couple of months later and finished the season despite soreness upon his return. Then fractured the same foot at the start of 2018, came back after three games and then ruptured his plantar fascia missing the final four games. That a tricky injury to come back from, and at some point, repeated foot injuries for a large, 34-year-old man holds a lot of risk. That all said maybe I should move Olsen down a bit more. Last in the oft-injured tier is Tyler Eifert. Eifert has the games played resume that I think most associate with Reed’s injury history. When on the field Eifert averages around 12 yards per catch and is a game changing option in the middle of the field for the Bengals. That said I think I’m going to knock Olsen and Eifert down my next set of rankings because I can’t quite justify the risk/reward.

Solid Starters, Limited Upside Tier (16-26)	The You’re Only Going to Notice the Ravens Tier (27-37)
Kyle Rudolph | MIN | xx | 16 | 140 | 15	Jordan Thomas | HOU | xx | 27 | 298 | 40
Dallas Goedert | PHI | xx | 17 | 178 | 22	Dawson Knox | BUF | xx | 28 | 287 | 36
Eric Ebron | IND | xx | 18 | 71 | 7	Ricky Seals-Jones | ARI | xx | 29 | 299 | 41
Chris Herndon IV | NYJ | xx | 19 | 149 | 18	Jeff Heuerman | DEN | xx | 30 | 299 | 41
Mike Gesicki | MIA | xx | 20 | 220 | 26	Hayden Hurst | BAL | xx | 31 | 299 | 41
Trey Burton | CHI | xx | 21 | 132 | 14	Mark Andrews | BAL | xx | 32 | 195 | 23
Vernon Davis | WAS | xx | 22 | 299 | 41	Tyler Higbee | LAR | xx | 33 | 199 | 41
Noah Fant | DEN | xx | 23 | 146 | 16	Cameron Brate | TB | xx | 34 | 276 | 34
T.J. Hockenson | DET | xx | 24 | 129 | 13	Jason Witten | DAL | xx | 35 | 214 | 25
Delanie Walker | TEN | xx | 25 | 128 | 12	Adam Shaheen | CHI | xx | 36 | 299 | 41
Nick Vannett | SEA | xx | 26 | 299 | 41	C.J. Uzomah | CIN | xx | 37 | 299 | 41

As we get through my TE2s and my fifth tier we finally get to the Ebron question. Ebron had a breakout last season, his first in Indy, and was aided by the Doyle injury. Ebron was also aided by unsustainable TD production in which he caught 13 besting his previous best by 8. With Doyle and Cain back from injury and Campbell’s addition in the draft there will be more middle of the field threats to take away targets from the TE 2 for the Colts. Gesicki and Goedert are highly touted second year tight ends, Gesicki is a starter on a bad team, Goedert is a backup in an impressive offense. The reason I have the two of them relatively high and Fant/Hockenson relatively low is because rookie TEs don’t perform well in fantasy. Matthew Berry of ESPN just put out his Draft Day Manifesto (You should read it.) and he noted that only once has a rookie tight end and that was Engram a couple seasons ago and in that case every other receiving options seemingly got hurt. So, don’t rely on rookie tight ends, even ones of as good of quality as Fant and Hockenson. Why is Davis so low? I know Reed is relatively healthy but even with Reed in last season the Redskins used both TEs often last season, and with a seeming lack of talent at receiver Davis should be a solid TE2 option with TE1 upside if/when Jordan Reed goes down. Lastly, is Delanie Walker who started slowing down a couple years back and then missed most of the year last season after he fractured and dislocated his ankle. I’m going to stay skeptical of a 34-year-old tight end coming off a shattered and dislocated ankle. As for tier six, well the naming of the tier says it all. I want to rank Andrews higher, but I just as the Ravens drafted them in the wrong order, I don’t trust them to utilize each of them properly this season. Going forward if we get a clear indication of how they plan to utilize them on an offense were Nick Boyle is going to be on the field a lot but a non-factor in fantasy.

Not in my Top 6 Tiers but in ADP

Ian Thomas | CAR | xx | 38 | 249 | 29

Matt LaCosse | NE | xx | 43 | 294 | 38

Gerald Everett | LAR | xx | 45 | 268 | 32

Irv Smith Jr | MIN | xx | 46 | 228 | 27

Geoff Swaim | JAC | xx | 47 | 282 | 20

Benjamin Watson | NE | xx | 49 | 291 | 37

Will Dissly | SEA | xx | 52 | 260 | 31

Jace Sternberger | GB | xx | 53 | 271 | 33

Darren Waller | OAK | xx | 67 | 251 | 30

Blake Jarwin | DAL | xx | 68 | 297 | 39

Alright rapid fire on this lot. Thomas is dependent on Olsen’s status this year. One of LaCosse/Watson is going to be the nominal starter for the Pats, LaCosse will have the job for four weeks, not sure it’s that valuable a position if you’re not Gronk-esque disrupter. Everett and Higbee seem to go back and forth as to who is going to end up with that job and it just sinks both of their values. Early camp reports have Minnesota lining up in more two tight end sets which could bump Smith up into a TE3 but he’s a rookie on an offense that doesn’t have many targets to redistribute. Swaim is the nominal TE 1 in Jacksonville and coming off the best season of his career (32 targets, 242 yards, and a TD); He’s replacing O’Shaughnessy who saw similar targets with admittedly worse QB play, but even with Foles I’m not sure how much a relatively raw and unproven TE is going to see the targets that would make him a top 20 TE. Vannett has the “experience” at TE in Seattle and while Dissly was incredibly productive (15.9) last year he saw 14 targets in his 4 starts. Add to that Vannett is listed as the starter for now and the lack of TE targets means that Dissly falls relative to ADP. I going to be honest, I don’t understand the Sternberger hype. I get that the Packers drafted him in the third round this year but he’s the TE 3 on the depth chart and unless they cut Graham or he gets hurt I don’t think there are enough targets to go around with the additional receiving talent in Green Bay. I’ll admit that I have no idea what to do with the TE position in Oakland. I prefer Swoope just because of his athleticism but even he’s at TE40. So no matter whom gets the starting role I don’t think they are the obvious heir apparent to the target share that Jared Cook had last season. Lastly, Blake Jarwin who split the lead role in Dallas with Swaim last year will be the backup this year with the return of Witten to the Cowboys. Jarwin and Swaim combined for 68 targets last season and it’s hard not to believe that Witten will take most if not all of those targets and possibly more this year leaving Jarwin as just a guy with a handful of targets and untapped potential.

So there we are, my initial rankings of the TE group and there’s a great upper crust, a good second tier, and then the questions start for some good options from advantageous situations. Then it falls off a cliff and there are a lot of guys to look at but discerning which will be the option that breaks out looks tougher than most seasons.