Quarterbacks are our first
positional ranks of the season and overall, it’s a pretty deep bunch with some
interesting decisions on when to pull the trigger and draft your first QB. That
said, there are definitely cutoff points at which the quality from one tier to
the next changes drastically.
This is what the information in
each tier means: Player | Team | My Overall Rank | Positional ADP | Overall ADP
|
The Mahomes Tier
(1)
|
The Very Good Tier
(2-5)
|
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Patrick Mahomes II
| KC| 37 | 1 | 30
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Aaron Rodgers
| GB | 44 | 4 | 49
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Andrew Luck
| IND | 50 | 2 | 44
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Deshaun Watson
| HOU | 51 | 3 | 46
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Russell Wilson
| SEA | 60 | 7 | 78
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Tier 1 is Mahomes, and Mahomes
alone as even if he doesn’t tap 5000 yards and 50 TDs he’ll still have a better
than most chance to be QB1 with say 4700 and 35. Tier 2 doesn’t have much in
the way of surprises with everyone within 2 spots of their respective (4&7)
consensus ADPs.
|
Good w/ Questions
Tier
(6-9)
|
Scampering Sophomore Tier
(10-11)
|
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Ben Roethlisberger
| PIT | 70 | 13 | 113
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Lamar Jackson
| BAL | 88 | 18 | 127
|
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Carson Wentz
| PHI | 71 | 8 | 84
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Josh Allen
| BUF | 89 | 21 | 137
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Baker Mayfield
| CLE | 80 | 5 | 62
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Cam Newton
| CAR | 85 | 9 | 88
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Tier 3 is where I start to
disagree with ADP more noticeably, starting with Big Ben. This offense is still
going to be prolific. The loss of Brown is going to slow this offense, but I
think a top half QB1 is still very attainable for him and this offense. Tier 4 is
just sophomores Jackson & Allen who I think are being massively underrated
in fantasy. Allen was an atrocious passer as a rookie on all levels except for
the deep third, while Jackson was consistently meh across all three. That said
both are going to run prolifically and it doesn’t matter where the points come
as long as they come. I think both will end up as low end QB1s in fantasy and I
put Jackson slightly higher because he has a much shorter distance to go to hit
a 60% completion rate.
|
Useful QB Tier
(12-20)
|
The Who Are You? Tier
(21-27)
|
|
Matt Ryan
| ATL | 91 | 6 | 73
|
Mitchell Trubisky
| CHI | 207 | 19 | 131
|
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Philip Rivers
| LAC | 99 | 16 | 124
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Jimmy Garoppolo
| SF | 208 | 20 | 133
|
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Drew Brees
| NO | 108 | 10 | 91
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Sam Darnold
| NYJ | 209 | 24 | 274
|
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Jared Goff
| LAR | 120 | 11 | 95
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Matt Stafford |
DET | 212 | 23 | 172
|
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Dak Prescott
| DAL | 121 | 15 | 120
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Marcus Mariota
| TEN | 216 | 27 | 199
|
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Tom Brady
| NE | 122 | 16 | 125
|
Derek Carr |
OAK | 217 | 25 | 276
|
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Kyler Murray
| ARI | 123 | 12 | 97
|
Nick Foles
| JAC | 218 | 29 | 212
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Kirk Cousins
| MIN | 128 | 22 | 139
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Jameis Winston
| TB | 134 | 14 | 114
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Tier 5 is a big tier but a strong
tier. I may be too low on Ryan before it is all said and done, but I have him
as my last QB1 in a 12-team league and he may move up a bit as we get closer to
the season. I have Brees as a high QB2 and not as a low QB1 because the Saints
ran more last season than they have recently, and age seemed to catch up to Brees
late in the season as underthrown or late arriving balls increased. He and the
offense will still be very good, but I think we see a slight slip. I’m a half
tier lower on Murray than ADP and it has to do with my worry about his
surroundings. He’s going to be able to run more but constant pressure,
especially interior pressure, could really hamper his ability to disrupt the
defenses plans. Winston is set up to have his most prolific season under Bruce
Arians but will Arians’ aggressive style concentrate or exacerbate what have
been his worst tendencies since entering the league.
Tier 6 are guys with question
marks who all should be QB2 fliers on a roster or really weak QB1s if you wait
too long as other take their second QB.
|
Rookies, Vets, and Questions. Oh My! Tier
(28-37)
|
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Andy Dalton | CIN | 228 | 26 | 189
|
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Dwayne Haskins | WAS | 270 | 28 | 205
|
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Eli Manning | NYG | 284 | 34 | 299
|
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Joe Flacco | DEN | 288 | 30 | 250
|
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Josh Rosen | MIA | 301 | 31 | 253
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Ryan Fitzpatrick | MIA | 301 | 34 | 299
|
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Case Keenum | WAS | 301 | 34 | 299
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Drew Lock | DEN | 301 | 33 | 285
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Ryan Tannehill | TEN | 301 | 34 | 299
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Daniel Jones | NYG | 301 | 32 | 272
|
Not much to say here Dalton is
consistently mediocre but can be useful in a pinch/against teams who haven’t
seen him much. Haskins has a chance to take the Washington job from week 1 but could
start a bit slow as a rookie. Manning and Flacco have rookies behind them on
the depth chart, Jones and Lock respectively, and I believe will lose snaps to those
rookies at some point this season. Rosen and Fitzpatrick are in a rather confusing
QB competition in Miami, and Tannehill is in position to take over if Mariota
stumbles in what is certainly a make or break season for the former Duck. All
that is to say there may be greater opportunity for some in this tier than
there appears at this time.
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