2019 Fantasy Football: 1st Rankings: Position - Running Backs

Alright I’ve started this article three times now as Word apparently doesn’t do auto-recovery anymore… Anyways, this year’s crop of RBs is deep up top, with a solid upper-middle class that falls off fast and is pretty muddled. That said values can be found all over the draft.

Note: Player | Team | My Overall Rank | My Positional Rank | ADP Overall Rank | ADP Positional Rank

Elite Tier (1-5)	Very Good Tier (6-9)
Saquon Barkley | NYG | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1	Melvin Gordon | LAC | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5
Alvin Kamara | NO | 2| 2 | 3 | 3	Todd Gurley | LAR | 9 | 7 | 17 | 10
David Johnson | ARI | 3 | 3 | 8 | 6	Le’Veon Bell | NYJ | 16 | 8 | 10 | 7
Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2	Nick Chubb | CLE | 18 | 9 | 21 | 12
Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4

The first two tiers don’t have many surprises, but Johnson, Gurley, and Chubb are all 3 spots higher in my RB ranks than the ADP. I expect Johnson to bounce back and have a much greater role in the passing game than last season,  Gurley should still dominate touches in the Rams offense even if they scale him back a bit, and I’m just not as scared of the Hunt impact on Chubb as everyone else seems to be. Chubb may never be what he was at his best at Georgia but 85-90% of that is still more talented than Hunt. I loved Hunt coming out but he’s going to be suspended for a while next season and he’s now on the league’s radar which increases his risk for further suspension.

Very Good but w/ Questions Tier (10-16)	White, Cohen and Some Bell Cows Tier (17-26)
Leonard Fournette | JAC | 19 | 10 | 29 | 14	Kerryon Johnson | DET | 36 | 17 | 33 | 15
James Conner | PIT | 23 | 11 | 12 | 8	Devonta Freeman | ATL | 38 | 18 | 34 | 16
Dalvin Cook | MIN | 25 | 12 | 20 | 11	James White | NE | 39 | 19 | 53 | 25
Damien Williams | KC | 27 | 13 | 28 | 13	Derrick Henry | TEN | 43 | 20 | 37 | 19
Joe Mixon | CIN | 28 | 14 | 35 | 17	Derrius Guice | WAS | 47 | 21 | 65 | 29
Aaron Jones | GB | 30 | 15 | 36 | 18	Kenyan Drake | MIA | 49 | 22 | 52 | 24
Marlon Mack | IND | 34 | 16 | 53 | 25	Josh Jacobs | OAK | 55 | 23 | 40 | 20
	Mark Ingram | BAL | 56 | 24 | 48 | 23
	Phillip Lindsay | DEN | 57 | 25 | 43 | 21
	Tarik Cohen | CHI | 61 | 26 | 54 | 26

More of the same in the third tier with Fournette, Conner, Mixon, and Jones all falling a couple spots off their ADP ranks. The big outlier here however is Mack. I’ve had my qualms but Mack is the lead back in Indy in a Luck led offense and he’ll lose some touches in poor game scripts but I don’t see regression hitting the defense as hard as everyone else and think they’ve set themselves up well to roll with the punches again in 2019. Mack did a better job in 2018 of running between the tackles but still has the ability to make the splash play when he gets space or bounces the run outside. In tier four I’m a half-tier higher on White as a solid RB2 instead of a top-end RB3. White is still going to a get at least 90 targets out of the backfield and shouldn’t be too affected by the Michel, et. al. rotation. Lastly, in this tier is Guice. He’s had the report on the hamstring and that’s a bit worrisome but a compensation injury as you return to full health isn’t uncommon. If it lingers into mid-camp I’ll be more concerned but outside of injury I’m not too worried about Peterson, and Thompson’s receiving share only really limits is upside not his floor or baseline production in that Washington offense.

Receiving Backs and Low End Starters Tier (27-35)	Chicago’s Starter and RB 2s Tier (36-53)
Tevin Coleman | SF | 65 | 27 | 69 | 30	Theo Riddick | DET | 94 | 36 | 213 | 66
Chris Carson | SEA | 69 | 28 | 60 | 27	Nyheim Hines | IND | 95 | 37 | 122 | 48
Sony Michel | NE | 73 | 29 | 45 | 22	Ito Smith | ATL | 96 | 38 | 110 | 44
LeSean McCoy | BUF | 74 | 30 | 94 | 37	D’Onta Foreman | HOU | 97 | 39 | 119 | 47
Peyton Barber | TB | 76 | 31 | 109 | 43	David Montgomery | CHI | 103 | 40 | 61 | 28
Chris Thompson | WAS | 83 | 32 | 162 | 57	Rashaad Penny | SEA | 104 | 41 | 77 | 33
Duke Johnson | CLE | 84 | 33 | 169 | 60	Royce Freeman | DEN | 107 | 42 | 99 | 38
Lamar Miller | HOU | 86 | 34 | 74 | 31	Ronald Jones II | TB | 114 | 43 | 104 | 41
Jordan Howard | PHI | 90 | 35 | 86 | 35	Matt Breida | SF | 115 | 44 | 153 | 55
	Gio Bernard | CIN | 116 | 45 | 210 | 65
	Darrell Henderson | LAR | 118 | 46 | 82 | 34
	Austin Ekeler | LAC | 119 | 47 | 105 | 42
	Mike Davis | CHI | 127 | 48 | 168 | 59
	C.J. Anderson | DET | 131 | 49 | 187 | 62
	Miles Sanders | PHI | 133 | 50 | 76 | 32
	Dion Lewis | TEN | 138 | 51 | 117 | 46
	Carlos Hyde | KC | 139 | 52 | 116 | 45
	Jerrick McKinnon | SF | 142 | 53 | 102 | 40

I’m worried about Michel the way everyone else is worried about Gurley, except Michel had surgery after a relatively low workload rookie season (209 carries). I’m really high however on Chris Thompson and Duke Johnson. Thompson was hampered last by injury and piss poor quarterback play and should bounce back to 70 or so targets and 7.5 or so yards per catch. I’ve got less to go on with Johnson but the insistence of the coaching staff that he’s a part of their plans going forward, there should be more space for the backs in the passing game with OBJ in town, and a belief that he’s much more talented than his usage so far in the NFL. I may be high on these receiving backs, but I also think the ADP is off right now for PPR. As long as Riddick is on the Lions roster I think he’s locked into at least 60 targets. Hines is closer but still 11 spots higher in my ranks than ADP. He’s the clear receiving back on an Indy team that utilized him a bunch last season and with Luck a year further removed from injury I think we start to talk about him like the next big thing in that receiving RB archetype. I don’t have a great argument against Montgomery other than Davis is going to get his, Cohen is still there in the passing game, and Montgomery couldn’t break the big one at the college level, it’s going to worse in the pros. That said I essentially flipped him and Davis in my ranks, I’m not sure how much higher I’m comfortable with at this point. In SF, I have Breida and McKinnon flipped from ADP for two reasons we’ve seen Breida play through injury and McKinnon is coming off lower body injuries compared to Breida’s torn pec. That said McKinnon is probably the better change of pace when healthy and this backfield is going to be a NE level mess for fantasy players. Bernard is a receiving back, but I might get closer to ADP if there are rumblings about Rodney Anderson or Trayveon Williams forcing the new staff’s hands at receiving back. Before we talk about the two rookies I’m low on, let’s talk about Davis and Anderson. I addressed the Davis stuff earlier in the talk about Montgomery, for Anderson I for one don’t believe that Detroit is going to give Johnson the role we all assume. The last couple of seasons they’ve shown a propensity to have a pound it back and Anderson fits the bill of big back to take workload off an already injured young back. We’ll finish off our talk about tier 6 by discussing Henderson and Sanders. I love Henderson as a player. That’s not hyperbole he was my draft crush this year and I love him but at best he’s a rookie receiving back on a great offense, at worst he’s a rookie weapon out of the backfield used sparingly as Gurley retains 90% of the RB touches while getting spilled for Malcolm Brown. As for Sanders, well there are a gaggle of backs in Philadelphia more established, the head coach has been unwilling to trust rookie backs, and his downside is he gets lost in the shuffle as Adams is the early down back, Clement is still the receiving back, and Sproles make three adding up for the majority of the touches.

The Less Likely to Take Over Tier (54-68)	One of These Will Win Your League Tier (69-83)
Alexander Mattison | MIN | 142 | 54 | 152 | 54	Myles Gaskin | MIA | 216 | 69 | 299 | 80
Latavius Murray | NO | 150 | 55 | 90 | 36	Alfred Blue | JAC | 220 | 70 | 299 | 80
Frank Gore | BUF | 151 | 56 | 299 | 80	T.J. Yeldon | BUF | 221 | 71 | 225 | 70
Kalen Ballage | MIA | 152 | 57 | 144 |52	Rex Burkhead | NE | 222 | 72 | 227 | 71
Jamaal Williams | GB | 156 | 58 | 166 | 58	Josh Adams | PHI | 223 | 73 | 229 | 80
Chase Edmonds | ARI | 157 | 59 | 229 | 72	Devin Singletary | BUF | 224 | 74 | 156 | 56
Jaylen Samuels | PIT | 164 | 60 | 130 | 49	Benny Snell Jr | PIT | 227 | 75 | 233 | 73
Jalen Richard | OAK | 165 | 61 | 171 | 61	Damien Harris | NE | 228 | 76 | 142 | 51
Elijah McGuire | NYJ | 166 | 62 | 244 | 74	Jordan Wilkins | IND | 235 | 77 | 299 | 80
Kenneth Dixon | BAL | 167 | 63 | 292 | 77	Wayne Gallman | NYG | 236 | 78 | 299 | 80
Kareem Hunt | CLE | 168 | 64 | 100 | 39	Cameron Artis-Payne | CAR | 243 | 79 | 299 | 80
Malcolm Brown | LAR | 201 | 65 | 299 | 80	Matt Dayes | NO | 244 | 80 | 299 | 80
Adrian Peterson | WAS | 202 | 66 | 138 | 50	Darrel Williams | KC | 254 | 81 | 299 | 80
Corey Clement | PHI | 203 | 67 | 299 | 80	Gus Edwards | BAL | 255 | 82 | 223 | 69
Justin Jackson | LAC | 205 | 68 | 279 | 76	Devontae Booker | DEN | 256 | 83 | 299 | 80

Last tow tiers and someone from here is going to win you your league. Let’s run through the big discrepancies in a fast paced, “hot takey” way. Latavius is going to get some run in the Ingram role in NO and I’m probably too low but I don’t know where to move him up to. The reasons the next back is where he is, is because YOU NEVER COUNT OUT FRANK GORE. Moving on Edmonds is the clear back up to David Johnson, Samuels is a weird player who doesn’t fit a role and isn’t going to challenge Conner for the lead role but will play three positions a game and probably frustrate you. McGuire is the #2 on the Jets and Gase should an inability to truly utilize a workhorse in Miami and I just don’t trust him, so McGuire gets a bit of a bump from me. I still believe in Kenneth Dixon and it’s the reason that he’s here and Justice Hill figures into my last tier (In the ADP, not in my Top 8 Tiers list below). Hunt is the 2^nd to what I believe will be a bell cow back and was probably picked up as trade bait midseason as he comes off suspension and teams get desperate. Every word out of the Rams camp is that Brown is the backup for Gurley and I think you should value that backfield as Gurley, Henderson (receiving back), Brown (handcuff). Peterson should be the handcuff for Guice this year and I’ll fight you about it. Clement is the Eagles receiving back and should be drafted as such. Gaskin is the back I trust the most in MIA but that means very little at this point in the offseason. Blue is the backup in Jacksonville until we get something tangible on Armstead or Rawls and that’s useful especially if that FO/coaching staff is as pig-headed and stupid as they seem to be recently. I hope Singletary becomes what his ADP suggests in year one but he’s the RB #4 in Buffalo right now and the QB can’t complete a short pass that would help utilize his skill set. I’m probably low on Harris but right now he’s 4^th on the depth chart behind Michel/Burkhead/White and he’s not jumping White or Michel early in the season. Lastly, Edwards… Yeah… Maybe, Baltimore’s backfield is a mess.

Players with an ADP Not in my Top 8 Tiers

Tony Pollard | DAL | 263 | 84 | 277 | 75

Justice Hill | BAL | 264 | 87 | 151 | 53

Darwin Thompson | KC | 273 | 90 | 201 | 64

Ryquell Armstead | JAC | 301 | 113 | 197 | 63

Dexter Williams | GB | 301 | 114 | 295 | 78

Spencer Ware | IND | 301 | 116 | 296 | 79

Bruce Anderson | TB | 301 | 152 | 217 | 67

Pollard gives Dallas a receiving back but it’s still to be seen if they can properly use him. Also, only 9 places different. I’m 34 spots lower on Hill than ADP and that’s because I think there are at least two more talented backs (Ingram/Dixon) and one more proven (Edwards) in front of him on the depth chart. That said outside of Ingram I’m not sure anyone is locked into a spot on the depth chart so Hill has a real chance to move up quickly as camp starts. I like the idea of Thompson, and love the player, but KC has a starter and a solid backup at RB, Hill (assuming he’s reinstated) and Kelce who’ll take up a fair share of middle of the field targets and a number of scat back/slot receivers on the roster means that Thompson has a lot in his way to production. Armstead is a banger between the tackles and a nice fantasy flier on a Jags team that seems fed up with Fournette to some extent but he’s not overly dynamic and is only useful if Fournette is gone from the roster in one way or another. I don’t get the Williams hype from a fantasy perspective. He’s a sixth-round pick who should factor into the 3^rd/4^th RB role on the team but I’m not sold that he’s was somehow drafted to fill some giant hole the staff saw in the team, when again he was drafted in round 6. Ware is the old guy in a room full of guys drafted in the last couple of seasons in Indy and may be the do it all 3^rd back but will have to fight for the spot with Jordan Wilkins in camp and the preseason. Lastly, Bruce Anderson feels like the square peg, round hole thing we did with every non-Peyton Barber back last year in Tampa Bay. It didn’t work last year, and I’m skeptical to say the least again this season.

Alright there we have it 8 tiers of RB, 90 players, a bunch of words and a set of rankings you will surely disagree with and I’ll think were shit in about 8 days. Enjoy and let me know what you think.