Championship
Week is upon us (And the Army-Navy game). And with it the end of the “Regular
Season”. It’s going to be pretty straight forward in this week’s preview. We’re
going to talk about every game, pick every spread, and point out the five I
like most at the end.
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Home
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Away
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Home
Rating
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Away
Rating
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My
Spread
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Win%
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Date
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Time
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TV
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Oregon
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Utah
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36.208
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46.538
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-10.330
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61.3%
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12/6
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19:00
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ABC
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Oklahoma
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Baylor
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43.625
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35.164
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8.460
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59.3%
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12/7
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11:00
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ABC
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Miami (OH)
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Central Michigan
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4.063
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7.611
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-3.549
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54.2%
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12/7
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11:00
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ESPN2
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Appalachian State
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Louisiana
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40.670
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30.323
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13.187
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64.3%
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12/7
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11:00
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ESPN
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FAU
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UAB
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20.861
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4.801
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17.319
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68.7%
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12/7
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12:30
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CBSSN
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Memphis
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Cincinnati
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37.801
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30.434
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9.442
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60.4%
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12/7
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14:30
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ABC
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Georgia
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LSU
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44.811
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55.826
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-11.015
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62.0%
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12/7
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15:00
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CBS
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Boise State
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Hawaii
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33.557
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10.660
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25.861
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77.8%
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12/7
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15:00
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ESPN
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Clemson
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Virginia
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59.404
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23.345
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36.059
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88.8%
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12/7
|
18:30
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ABC
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Ohio State
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Wisconsin
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68.969
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41.304
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27.665
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79.7%
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12/7
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19:00
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FOX
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Army
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Navy
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-14.634
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24.096
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-38.730
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91.7%
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12/14
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14:00
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CBS
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Oregon
vs Utah (-6.5), (Fri. 7:00 pm, ABC) (O/U 46)
Oregon
looked like the conference favorite for much of the season, but they faltered
late and close game decisions by coach and QB made the season a disappointing overachievement.
This one could be sneakily high scoring as Utah found its offense this season,
averaging 35 over the course of the season and just shy of 40 (39.4) over the
last five conference games. Utah has the better defense, but their games have
hit over that number 7 times in 12 games. I think Utah wins with a more
consistent defense but in a game somewhere around 38 -21.
Picks – Utah
to win, Utah to cover, and the over to hit
Baylor
vs Oklahoma (-9) (Sat. 11:00 am, ABC) (O/U 64.5)
A
rematch of a game that Baylor had in hand a few weeks ago and let slip through
their hands. The game should be pretty replicable to the first time, but slightly
better turnover luck, more efficient red zone play and Oklahoma is a probably
10 points better. But… Baylor was the more efficient team per play in the first
game out-gaining Oklahoma 5.904 to 5.526. I think this one is a one possession game
but neither side excites me and the over/under seems almost exactly correct and
that’s real frustrating when picking a side.
Picks – Oklahoma to win,
Baylor to cover and the over to hit
Miami
(OH) vs Central Michigan (-7) (Sat. 11:00 am, ESPN2) (O/U 54)
It
was a have and have not MAC this season and the winner of the have (CMU) is a
touchdown favorite to the winner of the have nots (MiOh). The defenses are about
on par, but the CMU offense sets them apart from Miami (OH). CMU has only
scored under 35 points (5 TDs) once since their loss on the road to WMU, where
as Miami (OH) scored more than 35 only once. CMU’s offense is the difference in
this one this one with a score in the 31-20 range.
Picks – CMU to
win, CMU to cover and the under
Louisiana
at Appalachian State (-6.5) (Sat. 11:00 ESPN) (O/U 56)
App
State won the first matchup by being more efficient with their scoring
opportunities and a slimmer than the score yards per play advantage. I think
this one is a pretty straight forward, low-scoring, tight slobber knocker. App
State is the better team, wins by a touchdown and once again in a low scoring
affair.
Picks – App State to win, App State to cover and the under
UAB
at FAU (-7.5) (Sat. 12:30 pm CBSSN) (O/U 49.5)
A
surprisingly good matchup for the CUSA with two top 60 to 65 teams. FAU started
off slower than expected getting thumped by Ohio State and UCF. They rebounded
well only loosing a close one to Marshall and beating their last five opponents
by 22.6 points on average. UAB lost to WKU/Tenn/SoMiss in a season in which many
expected a drop off with the departure of the first class of transfers that
helped their rebound when the team was reinstated at UAB. FAU is solid on both sides of the ball, where
UAB is a very good defense and a bad offense. I have more faith in Lane Kiffin
and FAU let’ say in the 24-13 range. Picks – FAU to win, FAU to
cover, and a slight lean to the under
Cincinnati
at Memphis (-9.5) (Sat. 2:30 pm, ABC) (O/U 57.5)
So,
Memphis won last week by 10 in a game they had to have to win the division.
Cincinnati didn’t necessarily need to show too much last week as they had the
division well in hand, but the stats and season would suggest that Memphis
should have won by more. Oh, and the Cincy coaches name is going to come up for
some open positions this week and that’s always a tricky course to navigate.
Picks
– Memphis to win, Memphis to cover, and the over
LSU
(-7) vs Georgia (Sat. 3:00 pm, CBS) (O/U 54.5)
This
is a close game if Georgia has been sandbagging on offense for an entire
season, LSU’s defense just decides it doesn’t want to fuck with it, and the LSU
players are unafraid to incur the wrath of Coach O. In all honesty the Georgia
defense is going to have to carry a heck of a load or the offense, and Fromm in
particular, are going to have to raise their level to a place it hasn’t been very
often this season. I think Burrow and company roll.
Picks – LSU to
win, LSU to cover, and the over to hit
Hawaii
at Boise State (-13.5) (Sat. 3:00 pm, ESPN) (O/U 64.5)
Tied
for the highest over/under of the day with OU-BU and it should be an exciting
game. That said Hawaii’s propensity to turn the ball over, and Boise State’s
steadiness should make this a two-score game when all is said and done. Hawaii
has the firepower to keep up but lacks the consistency.
Picks – Boise
to win, Boise to cover, and the over to hit
Virginia
vs Clemson (-28.5) (Sat. 6:30 pm, ABC) (O/U 55)
Oh
man, I don’t want to be glib for a second game in a row, and let’s be honest
the middle of three major conference title games that only look exciting from a
gambling standpoint, but here we are. There’s nothing wrong with Virginia, they’re
just fine, the problem is Clemson is very good on both sides of the ball and want
to prove a point. Although the best thing to happen in this game would be for
Virginia to win after Dabo straight bullshited all of us about the strength of
the ACC.
Picks – Clemson to win, Virginia to cover (maybe), and the
under.
Wisconsin
vs Ohio State (-16.5) (Sat. 7:00 pm, FOX) (O/U 56.5)
Ohio
State has been the most consistent team all year with an 11-point win over Penn
State being it’s closest margin of the season. Yes, Wisconsin has the advantage
of playing them previously but unless their LBs have gotten more athletic and
they have an answer for Chase Young and a handful of other Ohio State defenders
I don’t see how they keep this close enough to backdoor cover this spread.
Picks
– Ohio State to win, Ohio State to cover, and the under
Best
Bets (Championship Week)
Missed
a couple weeks because I didn’t want to half-ass the best bets. I do have a
number of bets that I like this week.
The
Pertinent Information
Bankroll
- $10,746.36
ROI
– 16.23%
Record
– 33-22-2 (59.65%)
Oregon-Utah
Over 46
App
State -6.5
ULL-App
Under 56
Boise
State -13.5
Ohio
State -16.5
Ohio
State-Wisconsin Under 56.5
So,
there we are, no money lines, three spreads, and a trio of over/unders.
