2020 Fantasy Football - First Rankings - 12-Team PPR Mock Draft

Now we need to test the veracity of my big board rankings or roughly the first 60 players. After the fifth round I tend to start deviating based on how my team is setting up. In that vein let’s set up this six-round mock. I did this as a thought experiment for myself so I controlled all teams, but I gave myself parameters to work within: I drafted how I would for the 1^st, 5^th, & 10^th picks, I drafted based on ADP (until the last 2 rounds where I still used ADP but also took into account team needs) for the 3^rd, 6^th, and 11^th picks, the 2^nd pick would start off RB/RB, 4^th pick started off WR/WR, 7^th pick stated off RB/WR, 8^th pick WR/RB (did this intentionally to see how similar picks played out differently in rounds 2-4), the 10^th pick was a first round QB, and the 12^th pick a first round TE. So, those are your preliminary team setups, let’s take a look at how this played out.

 

Round 1
Team	Player
Me 1	Christian McCaffrey
RB/RB	Saquon Barkley
ADP 1	Ezekiel Elliott
WR/WR	Michael Thomas
Me 2	Alvin Kamara
ADP 2	Dalvin Cook
RB/WR	Derrick Henry
WR/RB	Davante Adams
QB	Patrick Mahomes
Me 3	Julio Jones
ADP 3	Joe Mixon
TE	Travis Kelce

 

First round is pretty straight forward Mahomes (ADP 17) and Kecle (ADP 14) sneak into the round but that’s me simulating fringe strategies and not necessary a reflection of what would happen in a league you’re in, especially with Kelce.

 

Round 2
Team	Player
TE	Miles Sanders
ADP 3	Tyreek Hill
Me 3	DeAndre Hopkins
QB	Aaron Jones
WR/RB	Austin Ekeler
RB/WR	Chris Godwin
ADP 2	Nick Chubb
Me 2	DJ Moore
WR/WR	Allen Robinson
ADP 1	Kenyan Drake
RB/RB	Josh Jacobs
Me 1	Amari Cooper

 

As we get farther into this, I’m always intrigued by how the QB/TE first drafts start. In this case the TE team gets Miles Sanders based on my board where I have him as a low end first round value. His ADP right now is 18 but Kelce gives you scoring consistency and week to week dominance over most TEs. Sanders gives you top half of RB1 upside on a well-designed offense where he doesn’t have much in the way of competition for backfield touches. And yes, I know Peterson doesn’t often give elite workloads, but he hasn’t had a back like Sanders who can perform in every area of the game. ADP 3 gets off to a strong start with a workhorse back and a high upside and high floor receiver. ME 3 gets two ball hog receivers, there’s some risk for Hopkins in a new offense that may not produce the volume for him the way Houston did but he’s still one of the best receivers in the league. QB & WR/RB get a couple of underrated players. People are taking the Jones TD regression too far and seeing too much impact from AJ Dillon for my taste who I think was more an insurance pick for next year than a replacement or touch stealing pick for the 2020 season. It’s interesting with the hype surrounding Chris Godwin and the addition of Brady that his ADP is just 20. I have him as the 13^th rated player but still pick 18 in this mock but I think you can have legitimate concerns but love the outside especially in the mid-2^nd. Chubb, Drake, and Jacobs are interesting case studies. Chubb’s production and touches took a dip when Kareem Hunt returned from suspension last season, but he’s incredibly talented, able to do it all, and carry the load for the Browns but it would appear that he won’t be a true bell cow back with Hunt firmly entrenched as the receiving back. I just can’t find the production for Drake in my projections. I have him at 44% rush share and 8% of the passing game, there may be room for a slight uptick, but with a rushing QB and a younger vet RB that has consistent usage it becomes tougher and tougher to find places to take touches from to give to Drake. Lastly, Jacobs and the no good, very bad, offseason plan to continue to limit his contribution in the pass game by adding more depth to Jalen Richard in the Raiders backfield passing touches. Jacobs is going to be more valuable in non-PPR scoring but he’s still a talented player and proficient pass catcher dating back to his time at Alabama. Lastly, Robinson and Cooper are 100+ target WR1s for the Bears and Cowboys, respectively.

 

Round 3
Team	Player
Me 1	George Kittle
RB/RB	Odell Beckham
ADP 1	Lamar Jackson
WR/WR	Todd Gurley
Me 2	Mike Evans
ADP 2	Clyde Edwards Helaire
RB/WR	Le'Veon Bell
WR/RB	Melvin Gordon
QB	JuJu Smith-Schuster
Me 3	Leonard Fournette
ADP 3	Kenny Galloday
TE	Cooper Kupp

 

It’s at this point that I followed my board but really have to think about bringing the TE values down. Although I don’t mind a roster highlighted by McCaffrey, Cooper, and Kittle, I’d probably be more excited if I’d gone with Beckham, Jackson, or Evans and gone completely for an upside-based roster. I’m high on Beckham and with a Barkley, Jacobs start going with a high upside, shouldn’t be too low a floor wide receiver should be a points maximizing bet. ADP took Jackson and while I probably wouldn’t touch a QB at this point in the draft especially having gone RB/RB to start I think one of the low end WR1s or high end 2s would have been a better build. Gurley, after Thomas and Robinson, is a gamble I’m willing to take, and he should have the lead role in Atlanta on lockdown. Evans seems like he’d be fine value in Round 3 (ADP 24) and I’d be pretty happy with a Kamara/Moore/Evans start. CEH and all rookies for that matter are hurt immensely by what is a stilted at best off-season program. I think CEH is in much more of split in Kansas City with Damien Williams. Bell and Gordon should be lead backs, with the majority of the workload and good and middling receiving production, respectively. Juju at 33 both makes completely sense to me and seems like it could be the steal that allows a strategy like QB in the first to work. With Ben back, and assuming he plays 14 games I think Juju is probably a steal at WR12 and a mid to late third round pick. Fournette, well I’m always going to bet on him and that’s my downfall but he should still dominate the rushes in Jacksonville but I can’t imagine there is a way to come close to the targets numbers from last season. I’m too low on Galloday, and much like Juju if he goes here, he’s a steal and is about a half dozen spots too low in this my own mock I’m now tearing apart. Lastly, in this round is Kupp, I kind of like how this started with Kelce & Sanders at the turn, and Kupp the reception machine in round 3. He should be high floor, with Edelman-esque upside.

 

Round 4
Team	Player
TE	Chris Carson
ADP 3	Adam Thielen
Me 3	Tyler Lockett
QB	James Conner
WR/RB	Keenan Allen
RB/WR	A.J. Brown
ADP 2	Mark Andrews
Me 2	Courtland Sutton
WR/WR	Raheem Mostert
ADP 1	David Johnson
RB/RB	Stefon Diggs
Me 1	David Montgomery

 

Thielen is low in my ranks and will need to pop up a touch but to be honest not too much higher in a mock. Round 4 is chock full of WR talent. Thielen (ADP:34), Lockett (60), Allen (54), Brown (43), Sutton (52), and Diggs (67) are all WR1 caliber players. And generally going outside this round with just Brown and Thielen going in round 3 or 4 and Diggs going as late as round 6 which is patently ridiculous. The running backs at this point are mostly inefficient ball hogs with Carson and Conner getting lead roles and young “challengers”, Mostert is actually good but will be in more of a committee, Johnson is a wild card as his season was derailed by a back injury and he’s a steal if healthy and full go, and Montgomery is just going to get the ball a lot and average 3.6 yards per carry. Lastly Mark Andrews, is the 3^rd TE taken and is added to a team with Cook, Chubb and CEH at ADP and followed up with Andrews before a WR.

 

Round 5
Team	Player
Me 1	Deshaun Watson
RB/RB	Robert Woods
ADP 1	Calvin Ridley
WR/WR	Russell Wilson
Me 2	Dak Prescott
ADP 2	DK Metcalf
RB/WR	Terry McLaurin
WR/RB	Kareem Hunt
QB	T.Y. Hilton
Me 3	Devin Singletary
ADP 3	Jonathan Taylor
TE	Kyler Murray

 

Round 5 I start to deviate a bit from my pure rankings.

Team: Me 1 – McCaffrey/Cooper/Kittle/Montgomery – I added Watson to this team, yes I could have gone receiver but I think I can still get WR1 level upside even if there is more risk associated with it later but I can’t get the production levels of Watson.

Team: RB/RB – Barkley/Jacobs/Beckham/Diggs – After starting RB/RB/WR/WR I stayed on the receiver train and added Woods to a rather volatile receiving corps. I think the upside and floor of my starting RBs is such that I can add a receiving back or two later in the draft and a flyer and be pretty happy with how the roster rolls out.

Team: ADP 1 – Elliott/Drake/Jackson/Da. Johnson – The RBs are strong, the QB should be good even with regression, and Ridley isn’t a great WR1 but he should be right around 100 targets this season and Elliott/Jackson are going to carry this team and rounds 6 through 10 are going to be about taking high upside players.

Team: WR/WR – Thomas/Robinson/Gurley/Mostert – I like the start of this one. Two of my top 10 receivers, a potential #1 RB in Gurley, if Mostert is clearly the lead back he’s a RB1 and this team is loaded. Because of this balance and upside I decided to be aggressive and go for it with my starting lineup and drafted Russell Wilson.

Team: Me 2 – Kamara/Moore/Evans/Sutton – With WR locked down I didn’t like what was there ate RB although Singletary was a tease, so I added the last QB of my 6 deep tier 1 in Prescott. I’m not afraid to take QBs a little earlier than the expert mocks.

Team: ADP 2 – Cook/Chubb/CEH/Andrews – Metcalf adds upside to a team that’s stacked at RB but will now certainly need to go WR heavy for a few rounds to give the team some production and level.

Team: RB/WR – Henry/Godwin/Bell/Brown – Good balance but the RBs are a bit towards the high-volume variety more so than the huge play variety at this point in their careers. McLaurin gives us three really good young receivers, who should see 100 target volume.

Team: WR/RB – Adams/Ekeler/Gordon/Allen – This one I weirdly like, Adams is going to get a quarter of the targets, Ekeler is going to dominate that backfield especially early in the season, Gordon won’t get the workload from the Chargers but will still be a good fantasy option, and Allen seems weirdly underrated to me this offseason for his talent and production levels. Adding Kareem Hunt means we’re relying a bit too much on receiving backs but in a PPR that’s not really a huge issue just means game script and volatility matter a bit more.

Team: QB – Mahomes/Jones/Smith-Schuster/Conner – Kind of like this start despite probably never drafting from this position. Needed WR depth, got Hitlon, if healthy this is a great start, if hurt, it hurts the team but it’s not fatal.

Team: Me 3 – Jones/Hopkins/Fournette/Lockett – This team is just made up of players consensus seems to hate and well, I get it on Fornette, I don’t quite understand it for Lockett or Jones, and Hopkins is just a mixed bag of unknowns. That continues in this round with the addition of Singletary who everyone seems to think is going to lose a whole bunch of production to a plodding rookie with solid feet and no camp.

Team: ADP 3 – Mixon/Hill/Galloday/Thielen – This might be one of my favorite starts but you have one stud RB, and three WR1 types and then in round 5 you add a high upside rookie, who if he can assume the starting job will absolutely make the most of it.

Team: TE – Kelce/Sanders/Kupp/Carson – Added Murray to this group and all I can say is that Kelce and Murray better outperform replacement level by quite a bit to make up for baselines. Now if Sanders busts out and Kupp isn’t hurt by 2 TE sets we got ourselves something brewing but I’m not overly confident in that.

 

Round 6
Team	Player
TE	D.J. Chark
ADP	Zach Ertz
Me	Derrius Guice
QB	Darren Waller
WR/RB	Jarvis Landry
RB/WR	Tarik Cohen
ADP	DeVante Parker
Me	James White
WR/WR	Evan Engram
ADP	A.J. Green
RB/RB	Michael Gallup
Me	Julian Edelman

 

And your sixth-round wild cards. Ertz has TE 1 upside or if Goedert eclipses him, TE 12-15 downside. Chark could boom again but that requires a sixth round rookie QB to catch lightning in a bottle. Guice… Well, I love Guice but I know I’m going to be way out on a limb betting on him again. Waller TE1 upside, but a lot of young talent added in the offseason that could limit his ability to just dominate targets again in 2020. Landry should be solid, but I wonder if he gets lost in the shuffle as the middle of the field becomes more congested in Cleveland. Cohen is going to get 100 targets again. Take a mid-round shot on him. I like Preston Williams better than Parker but I seem to be in the minority with that opinion, I’ll just take the age 21/22 breakout over the 27/28 breakout. This mock was done based on ranks before the Cam addition but White could potentially have his value destroyed by a non-checkdown dependent healthy Cam. It seems like half the TE1s could feasibly the overall TE 1 at the end of the season, but we don’t know what the offense will look like and he’s had trouble staying on the field. Green could realistically be a WR1 again after two injury riddle years but he’s getting up there in age and may no longer be the #1 option on his roster, although I absolutely think he is. Gallup has been most people’s odd man out with the addition of CeeDee Lamb but He should still be the WR2 in Dallas and the outside receiver across from Cooper while Lamb sets up shop in the slot. Less attention shouldn’t be a detraction from his value. Lastly, Edelman. A first time starter was going to lean on him, Cam loves Mesh (mid-field crossing routes) and there isn’t much for receiving talent on the roster so Edelamn should still see 100+ targets easily even if he isn’t in the 140-160 range.

 

So, there we have it, I’ll leave you with the ranks of the 12 rosters.

Team	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6
RB/RB	Saquon Barkley	Josh Jacobs	Odell Beckham	Stefon Diggs	Robert Woods	Michael Gallup
WR/WR	Michael Thomas	Allen Robinson	Todd Gurley	Raheem Mostert	Russell Wilson	Evan Engram
ADP 3	Joe Mixon	Tyreek Hill	Kenny Galloday	Adam Thielen	Jonathan Taylor	Zach Ertz
ADP 2	Dalvin Cook	Nick Chubb	Clyde Edwards Helaire	Mark Andrews	DK Metcalf	DeVante Parker
Me 1	Christian McCaffrey	Amari Cooper	George Kittle	David Montgomery	Deshaun Watson	Julian Edelman
Me 2	Alvin Kamara	DJ Moore	Mike Evans	Courtland Sutton	Dak Prescott	James White
WR/RB	Davante Adams	Austin Ekeler	Melvin Gordon	Keenan Allen	Kareem Hunt	Jarvis Landry
TE	Travis Kelce	Miles Sanders	Cooper Kupp	Chris Carson	Kyler Murray	D.J. Chark
ADP	Ezekiel Elliott	Kenyan Drake	Lamar Jackson	David Johnson	Calvin Ridley	A.J. Green
QB	Patrick Mahomes	Aaron Jones	JuJu Smith-Schuster	James Conner	T.Y. Hilton	Darren Waller
RB/WR	Derrick Henry	Chris Godwin	Le'Veon Bell	A.J. Brown	Terry McLaurin	Tarik Cohen
Me 3	Julio Jones	DeAndre Hopkins	Leonard Fournette	Tyler Lockett	Devin Singletary	Derrius Guice