2021 Fantasy Football - 1st PPR Ranks - Wide Receivers

 Wide receiver keeps getting deeper and deeper with the proliferation of the passing game and a greater reliance on the pass game as the focal point of the offense. Case in point I don’t really get too suspicious of output for wide receivers until WR40 and I have crushes into the WR60s. Which means we’re ready to get into a long rambling discussion about the value of relatively similar producers.

 

Tier 1 – The Elite
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR1	Davante Adams	GB	11	2	-1
WR2	Stefon Diggs	BUF	13	3	-1
WR3	Tyreek Hill	KC	9	1	2

 

I think these three are the best combination of targets and consistency. Hill doesn’t have major questions but has other target concerns, Diggs has the regression questions both for the offense and for his QB, and Adams has the Rodgers questions. For now, I’m assuming Rodgers is back. Obviously.

 

Tier 2 – The Really Very Good
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR4	Michael Thomas	NO	27	9	-5
WR5	DeAndre Hopkins	ARI	16	4	1
WR6	Keenan Allen	LAC	30	10	-4
WR7	AJ Brown	TEN	19	6	1
WR8	Calvin Ridley	ATL	20	7	1
WR9	Justin Jefferson	MIN	24	8	1
WR10	DK Metcalf	SEA	18	5	5

 

Nothing hugely off here. Higher on Thomas coming off injury, higher on Allen because he’s been insanely consistent, and lower on Metcalf because fuck it someone has to be 10^th. I put these in tiers because I believe you can sub any one out for another and I can make a cogent argument about the order.

 

Tier 3 – More Very Good but Slightly Worse Receivers
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR11	Allen Robinson	CHI	33	11	0
WR12	Mike Evans	TB	41	14	-2
WR13	Chris Godwin	TB	45	17	-4
WR14	Amari Cooper	DAL	40	13	1
WR15	DJ Moore	CAR	52	22	-7
WR16	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	67	27	-11
WR17	Terry McLaurin	WAS	36	12	5
WR18	Kenny Golladay	NYG	57	23	-5
WR19	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	43	15	4
WR20	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	63	25	-5
WR21	Julio Jones	ATL	44	16	5
WR22	Tyler Lockett	SEA	50	20	2
WR23	Robert Woods	LAR	46	18	5
WR24	Courtland Sutton	DEN	69	28	-4

 

Ja’Marr Chase is the big difference here almost a full wide receiver tier off with me at WR16 and ADP at WR27. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd still exist but Chase is the most talented of the trio and…. AJ Green vacated 104 targets, the Bengals were on pace for 680 pass attempts last season in games Burrow started, and unless one of the TEs really steps up there are going to be at least 40 extra targets up for grabs making the Bengals offense very capable of sustaining the 630ish targets I have them projected at and Ja’Marr Chase more than capable of being a high end WR 2 after being drafted 5^th overall.

 

Tier 4 – The Good with Concerns Tier
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR25	Odell Beckham Jr	CLE	75	32	-7
WR26	JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	70	29	-3
WR27	Tee Higgins	CIN	66	26	1
WR28	Cooper Kupp	LAR	51	21	7
WR29	Adam Thielen	MIN	49	19	10
WR30	Michael Pittman Jr	IND	114	49	-19
WR31	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	106	45	-14
WR32	Tyler Boyd	CIN	80	33	-1
WR33	Will Fuller	MIA	86	37	-4
WR34	Chase Claypool	PIT	71	30	4
WR35	Marquise Brown	BAL	99	42	-7
WR36	Cole Beasley	BUF	121	52	-16
WR37	Deebo Samuel	SF	83	35	2
WR38	Brandin Cooks	HOU	85	36	2
WR39	Jerry Jeudy	DEN	88	38	1
WR40	Michael Gallup	DAL	105	44	-4

 

Let’s write this tier up a bit differently and highlight my concerns with each:

Beckham – His back, the offensive balance

Smith-Schuster – Shit the bed last year, target hogs, Ben’s arm

Higgins – Burrow’s recovery

Kupp – Injuries, Stafford pushing the ball more

Thielen – Getting older – This one’s weak but I don’t have a concrete reason why

Pittman – Who’s WR1, Wentz, power run game

Waddle – Rookie, Tua

Boyd – Third best receiver on team

Fuller – Injuries, inconsistency

Claypool – Ben’s arm, offensive balance

Brown – Bateman, passing game efficiency

Beasley – Age, COVID, decreased offensive efficiency

Samuel – Aiyuk target hog, QB uncertainty

Cooks – Concussions, QB play

Jeudy – Sutton, QB play, drops

Gallup – Last year of contract, 3^rd option, offensive balance

 

Tier 5 – Lowest Top Options & Second Options Galore
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR41	Robby Anderson	CAR	81	34	7
WR42	Corey Davis	NYJ	113	48	-6
WR43	DeVonta Smith	PHI	96	40	3
WR44	Laviska Shenault	JAX	102	43	1
WR45	Henry Ruggs	LVR	131	53	-8
WR46	Gabriel Davis	BUF	171	63	-17
WR47	Diontae Johnson	PIT	59	24	23
WR48	Mike Williams	LAC	134	54	-6
WR49	Bryan Edwards	LVR	262	87	-38
WR50	Marvin Jones	JAX	120	51	-1
WR51	Jamison Crowder	NYJ	170	62	-11
WR52	Curtis Samuel	WAS	94	39	13
WR53	Breshad Perriman	DET	215	78	-25
WR54	T.Y. Hilton	IND	116	50	4
WR55	Randall Cobb	HOU	257	86	-31
WR56	Nelson Agholor	NE	161	59	-3
WR57	DJ Chark	JAX	74	31	26
WR58	Mecole Hardman	KC	141	56	2
WR59	Sterling Shepard	NYG	196	72	-13
WR60	Jalen Reagor	PHI	149	58	2
WR61	Denzel Mims	NYJ	189	70	-9

 

A quartet of big disagreemnts and a handful of smaller ones. We’ll start with the smaller ones quickly… I’m high on Gabriel Davis than consensus because I think he takes over the John Brown role and does it well. Maybe he’s a bit streaky like old school DeSean Jackson because he should be primarily a deep threat but he balled out last season and unless Emmanuel Sanders relegates him to the same role as last year he’s going to be a steal. The Crowder rank depends on two things, whether the Jets keep him and his role wherever he ends up. He’s talented enough to be higher than this but everything the Jets have done and said points to him shipping off somewhere else. There’s still the longshot that the Jets go 4 wide more often in which case him and Elijah Moore can both be on the field and most of our projections are wrong. I'm a baker’s dozen spots lower on Curtis Samuel then consensus and I feel dirty about it. I’m worried the Rivera staff is going to try and use him as a deep threat again with both McLaurin and Logan Thomas being good in the underneath spaces. I like Dyami Brown to be the vertical threat in this offense eventually and think Samuel gets hurt by being pigeon-holed after we saw him break out in his last season in Carolina. Lastly of the “quick” guys is Sterling Shepard. I actually think the additions of Galloday and Toney help a versatile guy like Shepard. He’s been productive but the constant attention from opposing offenses with a lack of a better option means he’s constantly at a disadvantage. He's well worth a flyer at the end of the WR 5s.

Let’s talk about the Raiders passing game. Brian Edwards is the WR2 in Las Vegas and receiver three behind Waller & Ruggs. That said I’ll happily admit that this is a ranking based on faith in the player and not necessarily in anything other than small sample size yards per reception (17.55) and per target (12.87). The Raiders should target both receivers more as they settle into the offense in year two. Diontae Johnson has been one of the most inefficient players per target in his first two seasons with 7.4 yards per target on 2019 and an abysmal 6.4 in 2020. I’m also probably too low on a player who saw 144 targets last season which is frustrating because you’d think he’d be targeted less this year but, Ben’s arm is absolute trash. Also I worry I’m too low because Matt Harmon rated Johnson well and I respect his work with Reception Perception. Randall Cobb & Brashad Perriman belong to the same category of players I have higher than ADP. Both are solid starters on bad football teams who should get a large percentage of the target share with inconsistent production and frustrating unknowns that make picking them a bit of a hold your nose and close your eyes ordeal. Lastly, one DJ Chark. Chark had a disappointing 2019, 53 catches on 93 targets for 706 yards and 5 TDs. I don’t hate Chark I just like Marvin Jones’ consistency and Laviska Shenaults upside making Chark possibly the highest targeted receiver but also the lowest scoring fantasy option on the offense.

 

Tier 6 – Young Guys with Upside
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR62	Parris Campbell	IND	187	69	-7
WR63	Amari Rodgers	GB	236	82	-19
WR64	Elijah Moore	NYJ	177	66	-2
WR65	DeVante Parker	MIA	110	46	19
WR66	Dyami Brown	WAS	316	104	-38
WR67	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	191	71	-4
WR68	Russell Gage	ATL	163	60	8
WR69	Hunter Renfrow	LVR	272	92	-23
WR70	Tre'Quan Smith	NO	206	76	-6
WR71	Rashod Bateman	BAL	148	57	14
WR72	Sammy Watkins	BAL	230	81	-9
WR73	AJ Green	ARI	203	74	-1
WR74	Jakobi Meyers	NE	265	89	-15
WR75	Terrace Marshall Jr	CAR	184	67	8
WR76	Darnell Mooney	CHI	136	55	21
WR77	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	247	85	-8
WR78	Christian Kirk	ARI	185	68	10
WR79	Nico Collins	HOU	242	83	-4
WR80	Kadarius Toney	NYG	173	64	16
WR81	Cornell Powell	KC	327	106	-25
WR82	KJ Hamler	DEN	309	103	-21
WR83	Olabisi Johnson	MIN	327	106	-23
WR84	Van Jefferson	LAR	264	88	-4
WR85	Preston Williams	MIA	302	101	-16

 

So many players to like in this range, so little time. We’ll focus on the differences bigger than a tier and a half (18 spots). Amari Rodgers was drafted 85^th overall by the Packers. He’s fills a need (slot receiver) and brings a different body type to the Packer’s roster as a smaller twitchier frame compared to the bigger bodies that populate the majority of the receiving corps. He should slot, no pun intended, into a Randall Cobb role in the interior of the field taking advantage of space underneath and stretching the seam to help take advantage of space created by Aaron Rodgers’ ability and LaFleur’s offense. I’m not sure he’s too affected by who’s at QB as the underneath space wouldn’t be the area of the field hit hardest by the departure of Rodgers. 19 spots different in the other direction is Devante Parker. Parker hit 100 yards three times last season and needed 12, 14, and 14 targets to get each and it’s not like he was just catching deep shots as he had 25 catches over those three games (10,8,7 respectively). He just hasn’t broken out like some thought he would, he’s not a bad player but he’s at best the 2^nd best receiving option on the team and more likely 3^rd or 4^th best behind Fuller, Waddle, and Preston Williams. That also doesn’t take into account the targets going to TEs Gesicki and rookie Hunter Long, and Gaskin at running back. All-in-All, there are more mouths to feed, and Parker didn’t really stand out last year when he was one of just a few. Dyami Brown is one of my guys this year, before you ask, yes you can have a “your” guy in the WR 6 range. Brown was a standout at Ole Miss, was incredibly fun to watch, and is a smaller (literally) version of DK Metcalf. I don’t think he has quite that impact, but the WFT needs a vertical stretch player to make life easier on McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. Add in a Fitzpatrick at QB and you’ve got yourself a spicy meatball who I’m almost 40 spots higher on than ADP. What to do with Darnell Mooney? I wasn’t overly impressed by him during last year’s draft prep, nor high on him heading into the NFL Season last year. He was alright last year turning 98 targest into 631 yards but only eclipsed 50 yards 3 times in weeks 4, 8, and 17. He was busy in the Bears week 17 game against the Packers but wasn’t overly efficient turning 13 targets into 11 receptions, 93 yards, and 0 TDs. Adding Fields is an upgrade at QB but overall I’m just not sold on Mooney yet, especially if Cohen can come back healthy and be good enough to channel 100 targets to once again. I’m 25 spots higher on Cornell Powell than ADP and it’s pretty simple the reason why… I don’t believe in Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, or Demarcus Robinson and I think Powell is polished enough to take over the WR2 spot by the end of the season. Even if he doesn’t fully own it there are a lot of targets available in KC and I’m not sure any one of the incumbents that deserves a massive upgrade in role. I’ll combine KJ Hamler and Olabisi Johnson because I’m 20-odd spots higher on them than consensus. Both are their respective teams WR 3s which means they will be on the field for 3 receiver sets which are much more prevalent than ever and with Rudolph gone more 11 personnel seems likely which means more Jefferson, Thielen, and Johnson. At least in my estimation. Hamler is in a similar position albeit the slot role in 3 receiver sets in Denver. Hamler is the fourth option but he’s more talented in my estimation than Johnson and unlike the Minnesota offense I think there’s more potential in the Denver offense for offensive weapons and that makes the 3^rd (Fant) and 4^th (Hamler) options more valuable than Irv Smith and Johnson.

 

Tier of Misfit Toys
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR88	Demarcus Robinson	KC	290	97	-9
WR90	Keke Coutee	HOU	266	90	0
WR92	Josh Reynolds	TEN	213	77	15
WR94	Tyrell Williams	DET	221	79	15
WR95	Quintez Cephus	DET	293	99	-4
WR96	Anthony Miller	CHI	284	96	0
WR97	D'Wayne Eskridge	SEA	246	84	13
WR99	Darius Slayton	NYG	228	80	19
WR100	John Brown	LVR	176	65	35
WR101	Tim Patrick	DEN	292	98	3
WR103	Rondale Moore	ARI	168	61	42
WR108	James Washington	PIT	298	100	8
WR109	Desean Jackson	LAR	282	94	15
WR110	Emmanuel Sanders	BUF	197	73	37
WR113	Kendrick Bourne	NE	303	102	11
WR115	Zach Pascal	IND	283	95	20
WR134	Dez Fitzpatrick	TEN	277	93	41
WR140	Allen Lazard	GB	204	75	65
WR154	John Ross	NYG	319	105	49
WR166	Josh Palmer	LAC	270	91	75

 

Welcome back to the land of misfit toys. These are the players that are deep in my rankings without being in my top 6 tiers up to WR85 (WR 7s +1) and here we have 7 players who are at least 35 spots different from ADP. John Brown’s ranking brings me no joy. As an ardent supporter of Brown over many years I hate how low I have him, but Vegas played the 7^th least 11 personell (3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB) in the league last year at 50% of the time. They played 12, 21, 22, or 13 personell which have 2 WR orless 47% of the time. This means that I think the offense is Ruggs and Edwards on the field about 2/3rds of the time and that leaves very limited snaps for Borwn. I hope I’m wrong because nothing makes me happier than seeing John Brown succeed, I’m just not sure a 31-year-old John Brown, switching teams, and schemes (BUF was in 11 or 10 (4 WR) personnel 86% of the time) finishes a high end WR 6. Working our way to more divergent, is the man who replaces(?) Brown in Buffalo, Emmanuel Sanders. I’ll be honest I’m going to be wrong about Sanders, I know this, you assumed this, and the news out of Bills camp is that he’ll be the WR2. That makes no sense to me because I’d much rather see someone like Gabriel Davis take over the WR2/John Brown role. Sanders is a perfectly acceptable player but much like last year in New Orleans Sanders is going to get more deep shots than expected. I’ll move him up some in the next rankings because he’s clearly going to have a larger role than I think he should but he’s also almost certainly an avoid for me this season. Dez Fitzpatrick wasn’t necessarily a loser in the Julio Jones trade, but he certainly finds his path to a sizeable workload much more difficult. Assuming he picks up the playbook well he’s the WR4 for Tennessee which means a head-to-head battle with Josh Reynolds. Reynolds had one alright season with the Rams, but he didn’t separate himself all that much. Fitzpatrick was an underrated 4^th round pick. That’s to say I like the player, but he needs to beat Reynolds who was brought in as a free agent and the Titans need to open up the passing game and if not, Brown and Jones will hog a vast majority of the passing game work. I’m going to be a Rondale Moore draft spot hater. I love me some Rondale Moore, and I think that Christian Kirk isn’t the answer in the slot, but I think the Cardinals receiving corps is going to be a messy medley of mediocre performances that leaves everybody frustrated and Moore a post-hype sleeper next year when he’s comfortable in the offense and the NFL. I hope he makes the impact many think as he was incredibly fun at Purdue, but I fear we get a muddle with him, Isabella, Kirk, Green, and Johnson behind Hopkins. We head back to Green Bay to a man hurt by Rodgers’ addition to the receiver corps. Lazard had every opportunity to make a lasting mark in the receiving corps and never could quite separate in a group that never quite broke out in the shadow of Adams. Lazard isn’t bad or unusable he’s just around. Lastly, Josh Palmer. A third-round pick for the Chargers, Palmer is a dark horse darling in dynasty and looks to be creeping in as a factor late in redraft as well. I was not excited about the Palmer pick, and I’m not certain there’s a third WR option that matters too much for fantasy. I think he’s an interesting stash in dynasty, but I want almost nothing to do with him at the bottom of my roster this year.