2021 Fantasy Football - Training Camp R.O.O.C. - ADP Analysis & Adjustments

As promised, here’s part two focusing on the 10 copies of Superflex data with a slight twinge towards TE premium but I wouldn’t say fully TE premium for either draft. That said the first set of results are from a 96-team, 8-copy rookie draft you could draft veterans so you will notice there aren’t exactly 384 picks. The second set is from a 20-team, 2-copy league that contracted from 24-teams so there are 83 picks in that draft. All-in-all it gives us a pretty good idea of where players are going in real drafts and with stakes to give us pretty good ADP data to explore. (Note: Average 1 is of the 8 drafts, Average 2 from the last 2 drafts, and Average 3 is the overall average of all 10)

No surprise at 1 overall and all ten picks went with Lawrence. After that we see a mix of Pitts, Fields, and a couple Lance and Harris’. I’m not buying into Pitts like some are, but I at least understand the upside to that pick, Najee is the one that really gets me. Harris is a good running back but compared to the QBs, Top 15 WRs and Pitts I just don’t think he has the longevity or short-term upside to be a top 5 pick let alone a top 2 pick like he was for a couple people. I think it’s interesting that we see mini-tiers (1 full pick difference) form in the top 12: Lawrence -> Pitts/Fields -> Lance/Harris -> Chase -> Wilson/Etienne -> Williams -> Jones -> Waddle/Smith. That’s the top 12 and neatly also the break where we see our first 2 pick gap. Along with that I think the Tiers are at Lawrence/Pitts and Etienne/Williams. Starting off the next 12 we have tier of 3 before a two-pick gap again. Elijah Moore is the pre-camp darling of the dynasty community and I agree, just mad he’s popped up as high as he has. He’s joined by Sermon who has risen post Jeff Wilson injury and Bateman who was the last of “top” wide receivers. R. Moore/Marshall/Carter fill out the next trio. I hope I’m wrong on Moore who was super fun as a freshman at Purdue, but he struggled with injuries throughout his college career. Carter intrigues me as he seems to have a solid chance of early playing time and has an intriguing receiving skill set that gives him early value. Then we have a big tier that takes us past past the top 24 to Kyle Trask at 28. Those players from 19-28 are:

Toney/Freiermuth/St. Brown/Brown/Mond/Eskridge/Rodgers/Collins/Gainwell/Trask.

Toney, having gones 20^th in the actual draft, confuses me. He ranged from 17^th to 22^nd, and considering the emphasis on draft position from the fantasy community I feel like were sleeping collectively on a surprise 1^st round rookie for a second year (Aiyuk). The other curiosity is Mond going ahead of Trask. Trask was a late second rounder, Mond an early 3^rd (64^th to 66^th so not really a big difference). Trask is behind a 42-year-old, Mond behind Kirk Cousins who’s 33 and has two fully guaranteed years left on his contract. I just don’t get the 7 spot split or the average of 4 pick split between them when one situation seems to offer much greater short term payoff potential even if neither is that likely to hit.

Player	Pos.	Tm	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Ave	1	2	Ave	Ave
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1.0	1	1	1.0	1.0
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	2.5	2	4	3.0	2.6
Justin Fields	QB	CHI	2	2	3	3	3	4	4	4	3.1	2	4	3.0	3.1
Trey Lance	QB	SF	3	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	4.5	3	3	3.0	4.2
Najee Harris	RB	PIT	2	2	4	4	5	6	6	6	4.4	5	7	6.0	4.7
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	4	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	5.8	6	7	6.5	5.9
Zach Wilson	QB	NYJ	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	9	7.6	5	6	5.5	7.2
Travis Etienne	RB	JAX	6	6	7	7	8	8	8	8	7.3	8	9	8.5	7.5
Javonte Williams	RB	DEN	8	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	9.3	8	9	8.5	9.1
Mac Jones	QB	NE	9	9	10	10	11	11	11	11	10.3	10	10	10.0	10.2
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	9	10	10	10	11	13	13	13	11.1	12	13	12.5	11.4
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	11.8	11	12	11.5	11.7
Elijah Moore	WR	NYJ	11	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	13.4	15	17	16.0	13.9
Trey Sermon	RB	SF	12	13	14	14	15	15	16	17	14.5	11	14	12.5	14.1
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	14.5	13	14	13.5	14.3
Rondale Moore	WR	ARI	14	15	15	16	16	16	17	17	15.8	18	19	18.5	16.3
Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR	CAR	14	16	17	18	18	19	19	19	17.5	16	16	16.0	17.2
Michael Carter	RB	NYJ	16	17	17	18	18	18	18	19	17.6	15	17	16.0	17.3
Kadarius Toney	WR	NYG	17	18	19	20	20	20	21	21	19.5	18	22	20.0	19.6
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	17	18	19	20	20	20	20	21	19.4	22	25	23.5	20.2
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	19	20	21	21	21	22	22	22	21.0	24	25	24.5	21.7
Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	19	21	21	23	24	24	25	25	22.8	20	23	21.5	22.5
Kellen Mond	QB	MIN	22	22	22	22	23	25	25	25	23.3	24	26	25.0	23.6
D'Wayne Eskridge	WR	SEA	22	24	25	26	27	27	28	28	25.9	19	21	20.0	24.7
Amari Rodgers	WR	GB	23	24	24	24	26	27	27	27	25.3	21	27	24.0	25.0
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	23	23	24	25	26	26	26	26	24.9	28	28	28.0	25.5
Kenny Gainwell	RB	PHI	25	28	28	29	29	29	29	29	28.3	20	23	21.5	26.9
Kyle Trask	QB	TB	23	23	24	27	27	28	28	28	26.0	30	32	31.0	27.0
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	23	29	30	30	31	31	31	31	29.5	26	33	29.5	29.5
Josh Palmer	WR	LAC	30	31	31	31	32	32	34	34	31.9	29	33	31.0	31.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	26	28	32	32	33	34	35	35	31.9	36	40	38.0	33.1
Hunter Long	TE	MIA	27	30	33	36	37	37	38	38	34.5	29	35	32.0	34.0
Elijah Mitchell	RB	SF	29	33	34	35	35	36	39	39	35.0	30	32	31.0	34.2
Jacob Harris	TE	LAR	30	30	32	32	33	33	34	35	32.4	42	42	42.0	34.3
Davis Mills	QB	HOU	33	36	36	37	37	38	38	39	36.8	27	31	29.0	35.2
Noah Gray	TE	KC	32	32	33	35	36	36	37	49	36.3	34	42	38.0	36.6
Tutu Atwell	WR	LAR	31	34	35	40	40	43	43	44	38.8	35	41	38.0	38.6
Khalil Herbert	RB	CHI	29	39	39	40	42	49	49	49	42.0	37	39	38.0	41.2
Kylen Granson	TE	IND	37	40	41	42	45	47	48	49	43.6	34	42	38.0	42.5
Anthony Schwartz	WR	CLE	36	41	43	43	46	49	49	49	44.5	39	42	40.5	43.7
Javian Hawkins	RB	ATL	36	38	42	42	48	49	49	49	44.1	42	42	42.0	43.7
Demetric Felton	RB	CLE	26	42	49	49	49	49	49	49	45.3	42	42	42.0	44.6
Cornell Powell	WR	KC	40	41	47	48	49	49	49	49	46.5	36	42	39.0	45.0
Gerrid Doaks	RB	MIA	41	42	49	49	49	49	49	49	47.1	31	42	36.5	45.0
Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	41	43	44	45	46	49	49	49	45.8	42	42	42.0	45.0
Chris Evans	RB	CIN	39	41	42	49	49	49	49	49	45.9	42	42	42.0	45.1
Jake Funk	RB	LAR	44	44	45	45	45	49	49	49	46.3	42	42	42.0	45.4
Larry Rountree III	RB	LAC	35	48	49	49	49	49	49	49	47.1	38	42	40.0	45.7
Brevin Jordan	TE	HOU	38	46	46	49	49	49	49	49	46.9	42	42	42.0	45.9
Jermar Jefferson	RB	DET	43	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	48.3	37	41	39.0	46.4
Pooka Williams Jr.	RB	CIN	38	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	47.6	42	42	42.0	46.5
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	WR	MIN	43	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	48.3	42	42	42.0	47.0
Mike Strachan	WR	IND	46	46	49	49	49	49	49	49	48.3	42	42	42.0	47.0
Kylin Hill	RB	GB	44	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	48.4	42	42	42.0	47.1
Tre' McKitty	TE	LAC	44	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	48.4	42	42	42.0	47.1
Tylan Wallace	WR	BAL	47	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	48.8	40	42	41.0	47.2
Seth Williams	WR	DEN	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	49.0	38	42	40.0	47.2
Kene Nwangwu	RB	MIN	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	49	49.0	42	42	42.0	47.6

 

Chuba Hubbard stands alone in 2.5 picks on average behind Trask and 2.2 ahead of Palmer. I think Hubbard marks the line between clear opportunity/backups rookies and more speculative picks. Palmer/Stevenson/Long/Mitchell/Harris/Mills/Gray/Atwell mark off our second to last tier and the last of the players without a 49 on their card. Except Gray. These are the players that are most likely going in your 4 round drafts every time and fill out the top 37 in these 10 drafts.

 

Lastly, let’s look at the effect of the ADP if we use my big board rules for season long no both my ranks and my 2QB R.O.O.C. ranks. As a reminder the way I adjust for the ADP is if my rank is higher (so 2^nd vs 4^th) then I average the two to get a new rank but if I’m lower on a player than ADP (4^th vs 2^nd) then I leave my rank where it is because I’m alright with someone sniping me on that player. I put these together to save space and give a comparison, both are sorted by the adjusted ranks. Also you’ll see a handful of players with their adjusted ranks bolded and those are players in their respective top 48s that went undrafted but are worked in to the adjusted ranks with those undrafted numbers (49 for the 8-copy league, and 42 for the 2-copy league).

 

Player	Pos	Tm	2QB R.O.O.C.	Adj. Rank	Player	Pos	Tm	2QB Rank	Adj. Rank
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	1	1	Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	1	1
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	2	3.95	Justin Fields	QB	CHI	3	3.05
Trey Lance	QB	SF	4	4.1	Trey Lance	QB	SF	2	3.1
Zach Wilson	QB	NYJ	6	6.6	Zach Wilson	QB	NYJ	4	5.6
Justin Fields	QB	CHI	7	7	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	6	6
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	3	7.2	Najee Harris	RB	PIT	7	7
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	5	8.35	Mac Jones	QB	NE	5	7.6
Najee Harris	RB	PIT	9	9	Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	8	9.7
Mac Jones	QB	NE	8	9.1	Travis Etienne	RB	JAX	10	10
Travis Etienne	RB	JAX	10	10	DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	9	10.35
Javonte Williams	RB	DEN	12	12	Javonte Williams	RB	DEN	11	11
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	11	12.65	Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	12	12
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	13	13	Trey Sermon	RB	SF	13	13.55
Elijah Moore	WR	NYJ	14	14	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	14	14.15
Trey Sermon	RB	SF	16	16	Michael Carter	RB	NYJ	15	16.15
Michael Carter	RB	NYJ	17	17.15	Elijah Moore	WR	NYJ	17	17
Kadarius Toney	WR	NYG	15	17.3	Kadarius Toney	WR	NYG	16	17.8
Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR	CAR	19	19	Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR	CAR	18	18
Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	20	21.25	Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	19	20.75
Kellen Mond	QB	MIN	21	22.3	Rondale Moore	WR	ARI	21	21
Kyle Trask	QB	TB	18	22.5	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	22	22
Rondale Moore	WR	ARI	23	23	Amari Rodgers	WR	GB	20	22.5
Amari Rodgers	WR	GB	22	23.5	Kellen Mond	QB	MIN	24	24
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	24	24	Kyle Trask	QB	TB	23	25
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	25	25.25	Nico Collins	WR	HOU	25	25.25
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	26	27.75	Kenny Gainwell	RB	PHI	26	26.45
Kenny Gainwell	RB	PHI	28	28	Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	30	30
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	31	31	Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	27	30.05
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	29	31.05	Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	31	31
Davis Mills	QB	HOU	27	31.1	Elijah Mitchell	RB	SF	29	31.6
Elijah Mitchell	RB	SF	32	33.1	D'Wayne Eskridge	WR	SEA	36	36
Khalil Herbert	RB	CHI	34	37.6	Cornell Powell	WR	KC	28	36.5
Cornell Powell	WR	KC	33	39	Khalil Herbert	RB	CHI	32	36.6
Anthony Schwartz	WR	CLE	37	40.35	Davis Mills	QB	HOU	37	37
Jermar Jefferson	RB	DET	35	40.7	Anthony Schwartz	WR	CLE	33	38.35
Kene Nwangwu	RB	MIN	36	41.8	Larry Rountree III	RB	LAC	35	40.35
Gerrid Doaks	RB	MIA	39	42	Ihmir Smith-Marsette	WR	MIN	40	43.5
Larry Rountree III	RB	LAC	40	42.85	Chris Evans	RB	CIN	42	43.55
D'Wayne Eskridge	WR	SEA	43	43	Kylin Hill	RB	GB	41	44.05
Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	41	43	Jermar Jefferson	RB	DET	44	45.2
Chris Evans	RB	CIN	46	46	Kene Nwangwu	RB	MIN	43	45.3
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	WR	MIN	45	46	Tutu Atwell	WR	LAR	46	46
Kylin Hill	RB	GB	48	48	Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	47	47
Tutu Atwell	WR	LAR	51	51	Jake Funk	RB	LAR	49	49
Brevin Jordan	TE	HOU	52	52	Javian Hawkins	RB	ATL	50	50
Jake Funk	RB	LAR	54	54	Hunter Long	TE	MIA	54	54
Hunter Long	TE	MIA	55	55	Brevin Jordan	TE	HOU	56	56
Josh Palmer	WR	LAC	56	56	Josh Palmer	WR	LAC	57	57
Javian Hawkins	RB	ATL	57	57	Kylen Granson	TE	IND	58	58
Kylen Granson	TE	IND	58	58	Tylan Wallace	WR	BAL	59	59
Tylan Wallace	WR	BAL	59	59	Noah Gray	TE	KC	60	60
Noah Gray	TE	KC	65	65	Seth Williams	WR	DEN	62	62
Tre' McKitty	TE	LAC	69	69	Gerrid Doaks	RB	MIA	65	65
Seth Williams	WR	DEN	76	76	Jacob Harris	TE	LAR	66	66
Pooka Williams Jr.	RB	CIN	79	79	Tre' McKitty	TE	LAC	67	67
Demetric Felton	RB	CLE	80	80	Demetric Felton	RB	CLE	70	70
Jacob Harris	TE	LAR	83	83	Pooka Williams Jr.	RB	CIN	70	70
Mike Strachan	WR	IND	146	146	Mike Strachan	WR	IND	70	70

 

At the top non-Jones QBs get bumped up R.O.O.C. which I think is a positive change, while Waddle/Smith take a bit of a tumble to 6/7 respectively but that will keep you from reaching too much for either, although it would appear you can get either at the end of the 1^st or even the early 2^nd. All-in-all there aren’t huge swings in the R.O.O.C. rankings but tweaks that make for a contextualized version of the rankings.

With my rankings the big change at the top is Jones from 5^th to 7^th, Amari Rodgers from 20^th to 22^nd, and Cornell Powell from 28^th to 32^nd. Jones makes sense because I heavily favor QBs in my 2QB ranks so any first round QB is going to be high in my ranks. Rodgers finds himself in a role and skill set that the Packers currently don’t have on the roster, but may if the rumors about a Cobb trade are true. Powell is a guy I know I’m high on, but I just don’t trust the players in front of him all that much and he brings a new face and intriguing upside to a non-speed role on the outside for the Chiefs.

There we are, context added from recent rookie drafts to pair with new rookie ranks and the start of training camps.