2022 Fantasy Football - 1st Ranks - Wide Receivers

 

We have officially gotten to the most loaded position in football and fantasy football. The explosion of passing games at all levels and the loosing of rules has allowed offenses to flourish and that means that, for the foreseeable future, we will never have a dearth of receivers. That’s not to say there isn’t intrigue or disagreements on strategy but no position is deeper than WR.

ADP is from July 5^th

 

Tier 1 (1-3) Elite
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	TD	PPR	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR1	Stefon Diggs	BUF	169	1319	10	308	11	4	-3
WR2	Cooper Kupp	LAR	179	1429	10	333	2	1	1
WR3	Justin Jefferson	MIN	153	1381	10	301	5	2	1

I was gonna say no surprises here or in the next tier but I think Diggs as WR 1 will be a bit of a shock to some. Not huge but ADP has Diggs at 4, I have digs at 1 is mostly a return to form and efficiency for Diggs and Allen along with the fact I every so slightly doubt that Kupp and Stafford can be as incredibly efficient as last year.

 

Tier 2 (4-8) What’s the Word Between Elite and Very Good
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	TD	PPR	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR4	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	129	1154	11	263	8	3	1
WR5	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	130	1069	7	235	16	7	-2
WR6	Davante Adams	LVR	127	1030	10	247	12	5	1
WR7	Tyreek Hill	MIA	123	1033	9	240	24	9	-2
WR8	Mike Evans	TB	151	1226	10	269	21	8	0

No big differences here but what I want to talk about is why these are two tiers instead of one. These five for me don’t have questions, they’re all the unquestioned number ones or in Evans case they throw the ball 600+ times every year. Even in Hill’s case he’s dynamic enough and Tua showed he could get the ball consistently to a player with ball skills last year…

 

Tier 3 (9-14) Very Good
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	TD	PPR	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR9	A.J. Brown	PHI	130	1131	10	255	29	11	-2
WR10	DK Metcalf	SEA	138	1084	10	252	50	19	-9
WR11	Keenan Allen	LAC	147	1152	7	255	28	10	1
WR12	DJ Moore	CAR	170	1357	5	267	43	17	-5
WR13	Deebo Samuel	SF	134	1212	8	260	15	6	7
WR14	Chris Godwin	TB	130	1110	8	250	58	25	-11

This group is supremely talented, of that this is no doubt, and there isn’t much of a difference between them except for in my mind the slight amount of distrust I have with each. Brown is oft-injured but goes to a team with a more positive offensive identity. Metcalf’s quarterbacking gets worse but Smith showed a propensity to feed him the ball. Allen is as consistent as they come. Moore has yet to have more than 4 TDs in a season, and goes from bad QB play to average QB play. Samuel won’t have the rushing upside he had last year and although he should be plenty used, his relationship with teammates and staff are certainly affected by this off-seasons antics. Godwin is coming off a December ACL tear, and although he looks to be on a positive timeline, we won’t know until he’s actually on the field and avoids compensation injuries. All in all I have biggest questions about this group while still be very trusting of their ability and upside.

 

Tier 4 (15-21) Very Good with Questions
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	TD	PPR	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR15	Terry McLaurin	WAS	131	1010	6	218	48	18	-3
WR16	Courtland Sutton	DEN	118	988	9	219	54	22	-6
WR17	Michael Pittman Jr	IND	128	1011	7	229	33	13	5
WR18	Tee Higgins	CIN	114	975	7	213	30	12	7
WR19	Diontae Johnson	PIT	158	1067	8	252	36	14	3
WR20	Brandin Cooks	HOU	139	1101	7	245	53	21	-1
WR21	Amari Cooper	CLE	114	970	7	211	56	23	-2

Tier 4 are players with much bigger questions, and/or are Tee Higgins and the WR 2 on his team. Instead of touching on each like above let’s look at our three biggest differences in this tier. Sutton, seems low to almost an incredible degree considering his new QBs propensity to feed two top targets for the past three seasons. Even if Denver continues to lean on Williams and Gordon (unlikely), his top option should still be very good fantasy options and much better than a low-end WR2. Pittman had a fantastic rookie season and finished WR 17 in PPR, right where I have him this year. There are just too many known commodities and players I consider better talents to move him too far up. Pittman’s range of outcomes are relatively small though and is someone I will be targeting as a relatively safe second option if he falls past his current ADP. Higgins is a wonderful player and a WR1 on most teams in the league. This comes down to the fact that I think the Bengals offense this year will be at best a middle between the start of the season and the end/playoff run meaning a less pass heavy offense. So, all good options, all mid-WR2 options.

 

Tier 5 (22-34) Low End 1s, High End 2s
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	TD	PPR	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR22	Mike Williams	LAC	128	1058	8	231	42	16	6
WR23	Tyler Lockett	SEA	126	1021	6	229	92	39	-16
WR24	Drake London	ATL	104	834	4	180	89	38	-14
WR25	DeVonta Smith	PHI	107	858	6	188	80	35	-10
WR26	Marquise Brown	ARI	108	795	6	183	51	20	6
WR27	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	109	884	9	219	115	50	-23
WR28	Rashod Bateman	BAL	124	938	7	220	75	33	-5
WR29	Darnell Mooney	CHI	141	988	6	219	60	26	3
WR30	Adam Thielen	MIN	116	968	7	216	66	29	1
WR31	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	119	977	7	214	95	41	-10
WR32	Chris Olave	NO	108	1080	6	220	109	47	-15
WR33	JuJu Smith-Schuster	KC	122	992	7	225	67	30	3
WR34	Kenny Golladay	NYG	94	740	7	169	130	56	-22

Now, we get into big differences and we’ll stick to the five players in this tier I’m at least 12 spots higher on than ADP. Lockett is a fantastic receiver and still the second option in his offense with the ability to win in multiple ways. London is the best wide receiver on the Atlanta offense and at worst the second receiving option behind Pitts. Wilson, much like London, is the best receiver on his roster immediately, he’s also got a good complimentary piece in Corey Davis to draw at least some attention. They will hopefully have a better offense to perform in as Zach Wilson moves into year 2 as QB. Aiyuk was WR 35 last season, improved his yards per catch and target last season and was much more consistent in his production in the second half of last season. The passing game is still primarily a three-player equation with him, Kittle, and Samuel. If we assume that Lance makes the 49ers offense better and more efficient then that should be mean at least a slight boost for all. Note: I realized after I wrote all that, that I had said I wasn’t gonna write about Smith or Aiyuk. I like what I wrote so it’s staying. As for Olave, I just don’t trust Michael Thomas or the team to handle Michael Thomas’ injury or future injuries well. I also think Olave is a verry good route runner and should assimilate to an NFL offense quickly. That should allow him to work his way into the offense even if Thomas is healthy as the Saints still have needs at outside receiver. Lastly, Kenny Golladay. Iwas never a huge Golladay fan but we’ve come way to far in the other direction. He’s a boombust player, and maybe I should drop him into the next category but he’s still his teams WR1 and with Shepard coming off a major injury and Toney’s status with the team up in the air it’s tough to think the leading receiver won’t be Golladay. That’s not to mention a more competent offense under Daboll.

 

Tier 6 (35-52) Really Good WR 2s
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	TD	PPR	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR35	Gabriel Davis	BUF	114	924	6	192	65	28	7
WR36	Christian Kirk	JAX	120	848	7	206	94	40	-4
WR37	Jerry Jeudy	DEN	113	905	7	193	62	27	10
WR38	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	109	801	5	189	37	15	23
WR39	Michael Gallup	DAL	104	830	6	177	114	49	-10
WR40	Christian Watson	GB	94	890	6	191	128	55	-15
WR41	Allen Lazard	GB	94	796	7	186	99	43	-2
WR42	Chase Claypool	PIT	117	869	6	189	105	46	-4
WR43	Jakobi Meyers	NE	133	1007	4	215	135	57	-14
WR44	Tyler Boyd	CIN	98	776	4	168	121	52	-8
WR45	Jameson Williams	DET	76	705	6	160	141	59	-14
WR46	Allen Robinson	LAR	94	672	6	158	57	24	22
WR47	Hunter Renfrow	LVR	106	820	6	197	83	36	11
WR48	Elijah Moore	NYJ	91	597	5	141	79	34	14
WR49	Robert Woods	TEN	122	928	8	218	101	44	5
WR50	Treylon Burks	TEN	95	783	6	181	97	42	8
WR51	Mecole Hardman	KC	102	900	6	195	143	61	-10
WR52	DeAndre Hopkins	ARI	77	601	4	133	84	37	15

Sticking with our over 12 picks difference rule we move to tier 6 and a group of that really highlights how deep WR is. I want to take a moment to talk about Gabriel Davis, a player I’ve been higher on since he was drafted than most. WR 28, or WR 22 as he currently is on Draftkings, is starting to get out of control. A buddy was in a bestball draft and someone took him 37 overall. Davis should be productive but predicting that big of a jump from a player that has yet to eclipse 600 yards is a tough ask. I’m 23 spots lower than ADP on Waddle, a player I love. Right around the WR3 cutoff seems a reasonable middle for his value, while a high end WR2 is his current ADP and that seems aggressive considering he was WR 13 in PPR last year with 140 targets. I still like him long term but unless we see a large swing in the how that offense plays, I have a serious questions of his ability to reach that ADP. I have the pair of Packers WR right next to each, but I’ve given the edge to the Watson because he provides a vertical element to the game that Adams helped proved, but we know from Adams’ absences recently that no one currently on the roster can replicate. I like Lazard he’s a good solid option but I don’t think that anyone is under the impression that he’s a lead receiver. That said I don’t think either player is a great option but I would much rather Watson in round 11 over Lazard in round 9. Jakobi Meyers difference in rank is that I think he’ll be the clear WR1 for NE and that I think his TD numbers are a fluke for the targets he’s been getting. Note to my Friend: Yes Jeremy, if you read this far he has one more year before he gets the full DJ Moore treatment.  Jameson Williams, when he does return from injury, will be the WR1 in Detroit and brings them a different type of downfield threat that I find incredibly intriguing as the fourth or fifth option on my roster. This probably means that I’ve dropped a bit too low on Hopkins who has to serve a 6^-game suspension for PEDs to start the year. Hopkins was still very good last year and I need to adjust him up around Williams. Moving back up the ranks. Robinson worries me, yes he was on a mess of team last year but that wasn’t anything unusual. What was unusual was his inability to be a productive member of a bad team producing his lowest yards per target, and per catch. I could see a nice mid-ground of WR3 range but him as a low end WR2 seems aggressive even as he goes to the best situation of his career. Lastly, Elijah Moore. Moore is an interesting slot option, but he’s in a 2a/2b situation for targets with Corey Davis which limits his usage, and him being an underneath target makes his usage much less efficient than an outside receiver.

 

Tier (53-77) You’ll Win Your League in this Range… Just Not Sure with Which One?
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	TD	PPR	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR53	Corey Davis	NYJ	70	508	4	117	172	68	-13
WR54	Van Jefferson	LAR	79	617	5	134	168	66	-10
WR55	Alec Pierce	IND	99	840	6	190	171	67	-14
WR56	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	107	818	3	181	69	31	23
WR57	Jahan Dotson	WAS	64	504	3	113	139	58	-1
WR58	Curtis Samuel	WAS	55	391	3	89	195	76	-18
WR59	Michael Thomas	NO	93	910	5	190	73	32	27
WR60	Rondale Moore	ARI	83	611	3	149	147	63	-3
WR61	Laviska Shenault Jr	JAX	63	421	3	103	234	90	-29
WR62	George Pickens	PIT	90	744	5	168	173	69	-7
WR63	Josh Palmer	LAC	48	350	4	91	185	74	-11
WR64	Devin Duvernay	BAL	78	546	3	129	226	87	-23
WR65	Robbie Anderson	CAR	93	684	4	145	183	73	-8
WR66	Byron Pringle	CHI	99	818	5	183	240	91	-25
WR67	Tim Patrick	DEN	69	567	3	119	145	62	5
WR68	Nico Collins	HOU	93	657	3	135	211	81	-13
WR69	Russell Gage	TB	74	540	5	134	102	45	24
WR70	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	KC	68	569	5	121	124	53	17
WR71	Donovan Peoples-Jones	CLE	81	808	4	155	212	82	-11
WR72	Bryan Edwards	ATL	75	581	3	121	244	92	-20
WR73	Marvin Jones	JAX	114	822	7	193	177	70	3
WR74	Skyy Moore	KC	51	445	4	104	119	51	23
WR75	Jalen Tolbert	DAL	65	552	4	125	178	71	4
WR76	DJ Chark	DET	91	688	4	144	148	64	12
WR77	Jamison Crowder	BUF	91	665	4	152	166	65	12

I’m gonna shift to at least 18 spots of difference for the last 3 tiers. Amon-Ra St. Brown was fantastic as a rookie finishing as a low-end WR2. That said the addition Williams, a healthy Hockenson (probably not for a full season), and a healthy Swift mean a loss in targets, and target share, and a move inside that benefits him as a player but not necessarily as a fantasy weapon. He’s already going 10 WR spots lower than his finish last season and I think that will continue to fall, especially with positive recovery news for Williams.

Samuel - one of those players that my projections and I disagree but I put him and Dotson next to each other because I’m not sure exactly what that receiving corps is going to look like. This will work itself out through camps but for now… we get a bit of a mess.

Thomas - a tough one because if healthy he’s still young enough to be very good, but unfortunately him and the team haven’t been able to keep him healtenough to be on the first for the past year and a half.

Shenault – Was the favorite upside project of the fantasy community for the last two seasons, and now… well not so much he’s going WR 90 and while that’s actually pretty on point with my projections. He’s fourth on the depth chart, but Marvin Jones dropped off the face of the earth last year, I’ll take a gamble at the top of the WR6s on a playmaker on a team that desperately needs people who can win in short spaces the way he can.

Duvernay – Baltimore got rid of Marquise Brown this offseason and the Ravens need to promote from within and with Proche looking likely to take the slot role that leaves Duvernay as the last of the vets who I think can make an impact. I do have a favorite player lurking deeper on the depth chart (Makai Polk) but he’s a UDFA and I’ll need more than my feelings to prop him up this high.

Pringle – Chicago’s receivers are shit, Pringle flashed at times in Kansas City and is a player I’ve never been too high or low on. Even with the recent news of the Harry trade I still think that Pringle is Chicago’s second most likely outside receiver to trust.

Gage – Recruited to TB by Brady this offseason Gage has been a known part of the Falcons for a couple of years, where he was a high end WR3 for the past two seasons. He’ll be much less the focal point in Tampa but he’ll have to beat out the likes of Darden, Tyler Johnson, and Scotty Miller.

Edwards – Heads to Atlanta where he should be the 3^rd or 4^th receiving option after his move from Oakland. His most likely role would be outside opposite London. He was a draft favorite of mine coming out but it’s a put up or shut year in Atlanta.

S. Moore – I liked Moore, not as much as many, in the draft but heading to Kansas City it’s seems clear that there is going to be a WR muddle that makes each of these players a pain in fantasy, this can be seen relatively with the KC receivers sitting at 33, 51, 70, and 74. The offense will be fine, Reid always sees to that.

 

Tier 8 (78-100) Injuries, Young Guys, Busts, and Post Hype Sleepers
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	TD	PPR	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR78	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	65	510	4	116	263	100	-22
WR79	Quez Watkins	PHI	81	699	3	142	294	109	-30
WR80	Cedrick Wilson	MIA	68	518	3	117	269	102	-22
WR81	AJ Green	ARI	71	532	3	112	216	83	-2
WR82	John Metchie III	HOU	68	526	3	118	205	79	3
WR83	Jarvis Landry	NO	83	745	2	141	125	54	29
WR84	Kadarius Toney	NYG	78	563	3	128	110	48	36
WR85	Sterling Shepard	NYG	41	285	3	74	249	95	-10
WR86	Tyler Johnson	TB	53	390	2	86	333	117	-31
WR87	Parris Campbell	IND	45	324	2	72	218	84	3
WR88	David Bell	CLE	51	421	3	96	197	77	11
WR89	Quintez Cephus	DET	30	260	2	58	412	139	-50
WR90	Randall Cobb	GB	65	527	4	122	253	97	-7
WR91	Demarcus Robinson	LVR	29	214	2	51	336	118	-27
WR92	Jalen Guyton	LAC	48	392	3	83	280	104	-12
WR93	Jalen Nailor	MIN	55	485	3	105	412	139	-46
WR94	Freddie Swain	SEA	57	434	6	113	395	134	-40
WR95	Sammy Watkins	GB	59	479	3	103	188	75	20
WR96	Calvin Austin III	PIT	50	435	3	97	347	123	-27
WR97	Dyami Brown	WAS	29	210	2	47	412	139	-42
WR98	Ihmir Smith-Marsette	MIN	28	230	2	56	380	132	-34
WR99	Kendrick Bourne	NE	68	550	3	118	200	78	21
WR100	Tre'Quan Smith	NO	46	442	4	99	369	127	-27

Going to highlight the 30+ pick differences so we’re not covering the entire tier

Watkins – will be the WR3 in Philly, doesn’t mean a lot of targets but enough to make him a useful asset and an interesting handcuff for Brown who misses multiple games a year.

Toney – The signs out of New York are better around Toney than they were earlier in the offseason and may require an adjustment upwards as he’ll be the WR2 for them.

Ty. Johnson – As I’m a bit lower on Gage it makes sense that I would be higher on Tyler Johnson. Much like a number of other players

Cephus – He went down with a collarbone injury and he’s the fourth Lions WR but he’s a steady injury replacement and we’re solidly into watchlist/waiver wire players.

Nailor – I liked Nailor in the draft and KJ Osborn is not a long-term option which means him and second year player Smith-Marsette are good enough to ascend to the third option in Minnesota.

Swain – He’s gonna get 40 or 50 targets and be the WR3 in Seattle and finish between 70 and 90 in a season without Metcalf/Lockett missing time.

Dy. Brown – I still believe in Brown. It’s a make-or-break year but a three WR set of Brown, McLaurin, and Dotson seems like a pretty nice lineup

Smith-Marsette – See: Nailor

 

Tier 9 (101-131) Lottery Tickets
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	TD	PPR	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR101	Denzel Mims	NYJ	46	306	2	64	398	135	-34
WR102	Cody Thompson	SEA	23	216	1	44	412	139	-37
WR103	Jalen Reagor	PHI	14	105	0	21	412	139	-36
WR104	Zach Pascal	PHI	6	42	0	10	412	139	-35
WR105	Cam Sims	WAS	23	191	1	41	412	139	-34
WR106	Wan'Dale Robinson	NYG	56	396	2	90	219	85	21
WR107	Danny Gray	SF	33	302	1	59	341	120	-13
WR108	Kyle Philips	TEN	60	449	3	105	408	138	-30
WR109	Keelan Cole	LVR	12	91	0	19	412	139	-30
WR110	Olamide Zaccheaus	ATL	51	405	2	83	311	112	-2
WR111	James Washington	DAL	52	403	3	83	231	88	23
WR112	Zay Jones	JAX	57	355	3	85	258	98	14
WR113	DeVante Parker	NE	68	522	2	103	142	60	53
WR114	Dezmon Patmon	IND	14	112	1	26	412	139	-25
WR115	Anthony Schwartz	CLE	38	270	2	54	349	125	-10
WR116	Frank Darby	ATL	12	101	0	18	412	139	-23
WR117	Velus Jones Jr	CHI	28	240	2	56	252	96	21
WR118	Preston Williams	MIA	16	117	2	32	412	139	-21
WR119	Tyquan Thornton	NE	27	232	2	56	287	107	12
WR120	C.J. Board	NYG	72	504	2	109	412	139	-19
WR121	Marquez Callaway	NO	34	317	2	63	266	101	20
WR122	Terrace Marshall	CAR	52	333	3	81	247	94	28
WR123	Ben Skowronek	LAR	47	355	3	79	412	139	-16
WR124	Deonte Harty	NO	25	237	1	47	406	137	-13
WR125	Rashard Higgins	CAR	15	121	1	26	382	133	-8
WR126	Chris Conley	HOU	52	383	2	83	412	139	-13
WR127	Chris Moore	HOU	22	151	1	36	412	139	-12
WR128	Seth Williams	DEN	11	97	1	23	412	139	-11
WR129	Amari Rodgers	GB	29	234	1	50	281	105	24
WR130	James Proche	BAL	49	406	2	89	337	119	11
WR131	Khalil Shakir	BUF	39	313	3	77	324	115	16

These players are lottery tickets, most don’t have an actual ADP, so I’m not going to write them all up but there are going to be a couple useful players or interesting watchlist/wavier wire options.

 

Bottom Tiers with Big Differences from ADP (Sorted by ADP)
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Yds	TD	PPR	ADP	PADP	Diff
WR144	KJ Osborn	MIN	18	146	1	32	181	72	72
WR137	KJ Hamler	DEN	28	213	1	43	223	86	51
WR163	Isaiah McKenzie	BUF	10	69	0	17	262	99	64
WR152	Braxton Berrios	NYJ	12	80	0	16	275	103	49
WR135	Jauan Jennings	SF	45	356	3	82	292	108	27
WR173	Romeo Doubs	GB	24	196	1	42	301	110	63
WR145	Nelson Agholor	NE	27	196	1	44	309	111	34
WR139	Justyn Ross	KC	34	303	2	66	314	113	26
WR161	Tylan Wallace	BAL	41	359	2	76	332	116	45
WR292	Ashton Dulin	IND	3	23	0	5	344	121	171

Lastly the players I’m at least 24 spots lower on from the bottom tiers of my rankings.

Osborn – I think he’s a perfectly fine player but younger higher upside options are available in Minnesota.

Hamler – Was favorite coming out of college but he’s fourth behind Sutton, Jeudy, and Patrick in Denver.

McKenzie – Looks like he might be the odd man out in Buffalo and buried behind new additions and younger options.

Berrios – Lost out with the addition of Elijah Moore to the team and is the backup slot for a middling Jets offense.

Jennings – My projections have him closer to his ADP but he’s relatively injury dependent and with Samuel having a more consistent receiver presence I worry about Jennings’ consistency.

Doubs – Maybe he produces as a rookie but he makes more sense as a dynasty stash instead of redraft option this year.

Agholor – Disappointed last season as the WR 71 and is the WR4 on the depth chart and probably the 6^th receiving options when TEs and RBs are included.

Ross – He’s a fun option and a in KC and a talented player who has been mired in injury hell throughout his college career. He’ll rocket up these ranks if he looks like he’s battling for a starting spot in camp but not before then.

Wallace – A dark horse for increased workload with the loss of Marquise Brown, although I think there are more likely options on the team to make that jump.

Dulin – He’s going WR 121 so it’s not a huge deal but he’s somewhere between WR 4 & 6 for the Colts and I just doesn’t do much for me.