2022 Fantasy Football - 1st Ranks - Running Backs

Although frustrating the change to tandem backfields has made RB an interesting thought experiment and puzzle. The position has depth and breadth, draft strategy is varied, and no one completely agrees on what you should do.

ADP is from July 5th

 

Tier 1 (1-2) Elite
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB1	Jonathan Taylor	IND	331	1746	17	57	420	2	292	1	1	0
RB2	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	269	1237	10	123	876	5	272	3	2	0

Nothing to see here, Taylor outperformed expectations last year and McCaffrey is the RB1 every time he’s been on the field.

 

Tier 2 (3-10) Bellcows
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB3	Dalvin Cook	MIN	242	1147	9	52	370	2	197	9	6	-3
RB4	Najee Harris	PIT	319	1247	14	101	588	3	252	7	5	-1
RB5	Joe Mixon	CIN	326	1348	10	50	353	3	221	10	7	-2
RB6	Nick Chubb	CLE	283	1498	11	20	148	1	211	20	11	-5
RB7	Austin Ekeler	LAC	216	968	7	96	709	6	224	4	3	4
RB8	Derrick Henry	TEN	376	1826	15	41	286	1	275	6	4	4
RB9	Saquon Barkley	NYG	223	992	6	78	495	2	184	25	14	-5
RB10	Leonard Fournette	TB	198	801	8	88	571	2	177	19	10	0

I’m higher on Chubb and Barkley from this group. Chubb is good for at least 1200 yards and double digit touchdowns, Hunt takes much of the passing game work in Cleveland but that hampers Chubb from truly elite upside but means he’s incredibly consistent year over year. Barkley for his part has dominated touches in New York when he’s been healthy and unlike Chubb is used often in the passing game. A change to Daboll’s system is a bit of a worry but Jones isn’t the passer or the runner Allen is so that should limit the overall damage due to the offense switch. As for Ekeler and Henry it’s not an upside issue but merely that both are mostly dependent on the one half of their game to produce their points. For Ekeler that’s passing game work, for Henry another year of 350+ rushes.

 

Tier 3 (11-17) Good Starters with Some Leakage to Backfield Mates
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB11	J.K. Dobbins	BAL	230	1277	12	58	362	2	220	45	21	-10
RB12	D'Andre Swift	DET	173	743	10	91	610	3	186	14	8	4
RB13	Elijah Mitchell	SF	249	1158	9	30	229	1	181	55	24	-11
RB14	Aaron Jones	GB	198	1005	8	71	480	3	194	18	9	5
RB15	Breece Hall	NYJ	216	859	12	55	342	4	184	46	22	-7
RB16	Javonte Williams	DEN	234	1042	8	61	417	3	192	22	12	4
RB17	Antonio Gibson	WAS	217	931	9	67	415	2	180	49	23	-6
RB18	Kenneth Walker III	SEA	249	964	18	32	186	1	192	90	33	-15
RB19	Josh Jacobs	LVR	246	1038	9	59	373	3	191	44	20	-1
RB20	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	222	993	8	58	396	2	177	31	16	4

Our first three large breaks from ADP. I think Dobbins’ role, if healthy this year, is what we expected last year. That may be fool’s gold but as long as he’s makes it through camp with positive reviews, I’m willing to gamble on a talented player in a very good situation. Mitchell had a surprise rookie campaign that saw him rush the ball a little over 200 times for just shy of 1000 yards, a small uptick in his TD production (5 last year) and should see him averaging around 20 rushes, and a couple targets, per game. Walker is probably going to be my boldest take this year. Penny doesn’t worry me too much as the Seahawks have tended to lean on a single back when they trust one. Walker has plenty of draft capital invested in him and in a season that should see Seattle hunker down and play bully ball while rebuilding I think Walker has a huge rookie season. Lastly, I have Hall 7 spots higher than ADP. I just think this offense will be a bit more efficient, he has a good well rounded skill set, and Zach Wilson could use a little stress taken off his shoulders.

 

Tier 4 (21-35) Starters with Questions, and Elite Seconds
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB21	Miles Sanders	PHI	168	826	5	58	377	3	152	70	27	-6
RB22	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	178	785	6	68	461	3	159	68	26	-4
RB23	Kareem Hunt	CLE	124	572	5	51	396	4	132	82	31	-8
RB24	James Conner	ARI	202	811	7	40	286	1	143	27	15	9
RB25	Alvin Kamara	NO	172	800	7	37	360	2	150	23	13	12
RB26	David Montgomery	CHI	211	831	8	45	292	2	152	34	17	9
RB27	Cam Akers	LAR	215	899	6	31	226	2	144	39	18	9
RB28	James Robinson	JAX	195	886	8	32	180	1	142	120	42	-14
RB29	Chase Edmonds	MIA	172	799	7	54	332	2	148	98	36	-7
RB30	Damien Harris	NE	199	948	10	24	164	0	151	77	28	2
RB31	Nyheim Hines	IND	61	254	2	65	429	2	83	126	45	-14
RB32	Tony Pollard	DAL	157	795	4	58	399	2	143	78	29	3
RB33	AJ Dillon	GB	194	869	6	38	276	2	146	61	25	8
RB34	Cordarrelle Patterson	ATL	132	494	5	80	567	3	138	81	30	4
RB35	Devin Singletary	BUF	190	895	5	33	194	1	132	86	32	3

Kamara, is the first player with a large gap that I have lower than ADP. That being said, I actually think I might split the difference. He’s going to be better week-to-week than almost everyone I have in this tier, and the replacement level player you would need to draft added on to Kamara’s totals while back probably means he should be bumped back up. Conner, Montgomery, and Akers are all 9 spots lower, they all also have major questions. Conner doesn’t have Edmonds to deal with this season but he also is riding high off a 15 TD season on in which he scored on almost 10% of his carries a record that will certainly not continue. Montgomery has Herbert who performed very well while spelling Montgomery last season. Montgomery isn’t a standout athlete and although his vision and mental processing help him immensely, Herbert provides a different skillset behind a porous offensive line. Akers made a miraculous comeback last playoff but was very clearly limited during the Rams Super Bowl run. Michel leaving is a positive sign in the Rams confidence in Akers but we still need to see him return to even close to his pre-injury performance levels to take him where he’s being drafted. I’m too high on Robinson, I forgot he tore his Achilles in week 16 and I’ll have to drop him at least a tier and raise Snoop Conner below. Hines is going to drop after this. I tried my best to justify why I have him here (consistent, Ryan likes him, known role) but none of it really added up to this guy should definitely be over Pollard and Dillon, and in the same tier. Dillon is a little more than half a tier lower for me and it’s not really his fault. He sits in the same tier but behind players that have better, or more immediate, access to the main workload and/or a more consistent receiving game presence.

 

Tier 5 (36-47) Handcuffs and Other Backups
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB36	Travis Etienne	JAX	80	356	4	47	308	3	94	40	19	17
RB37	Melvin Gordon	DEN	148	615	5	36	246	2	115	93	34	3
RB38	James Cook	BUF	89	357	3	81	575	3	117	104	37	1
RB39	Ronald Jones	KC	115	514	4	17	115	0	81	117	40	-1
RB40	Alexander Mattison	MIN	132	555	2	40	285	1	98	118	41	-1
RB41	Khalil Herbert	CHI	137	575	5	28	182	1	100	163	56	-15
RB42	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	80	284	2	22	130	1	53	206	64	-22
RB43	Darrell Henderson	LAR	160	718	4	38	245	2	121	123	44	-1
RB44	Jamaal Williams	DET	145	574	8	30	205	1	115	152	52	-8
RB45	Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	90	386	4	29	178	1	75	136	47	-2
RB46	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	152	695	6	29	208	1	117	108	38	8
RB47	Marlon Mack	HOU	149	653	6	15	93	1	103	158	53	-6

If Etienne is fully past is Lisfranc injury, and all reports say he is, he should be in line to get a good workload early probably, maybe. I don’t understand this ADP, the five backs going after him are Jacobs, Dobbins, Hall, Gibson, Mitchell. Those are all lead backs who will definitely lead their teams in touches. I like Etienne but unless this new coaching staff is going to do a 180 from the last one, I’m not sure that’s role he plays the entire season. Herbert was very good while Montgomery was on IR, he didn’t get a lot of run after Montgomery came back but much like Mattison he should be very valuable in case of injury. Ditto for Hubbard, if McCaffrey gets hurt again Hubbard proved more than capable last year, he isn’t McCaffrey but he showed why he had been considered in the running for RB1 in his draft class before a poor final college season. We need to stop underrating Jamaal Williams, going back to his Packers days he’s been a consistent presence, never finishing outside of RB4 range and picking up the slack when the lead back misses time. Stevenson is this low for me because that Pats backfield looks messy, and although I think Stevenson is going to be more involved in general, but I don’t think it’s enough to be more than a RB4 stash and pray play.

 

Tier 6 (48-51) Rookies with Pathways
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB48	Dameon Pierce	HOU	110	419	5	31	198	2	90	122	43	5
RB49	Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	133	495	5	15	90	1	81	189	60	-11
RB50	Tyler Allgeier	ATL	110	428	5	45	305	1	97	144	50	0
RB51	Rachaad White	TB	99	393	5	14	107	1	72	137	48	3

I wasn’t sure what to do with these four so I just made them their own tier. Pierce shows up in a messy backfield where he’s currently third on the depth chart, in front of him is an aging Burkhead, and Marlon Mack, who has shown flashes of returning to pre-injury form but was buried in Indy and had very different outputs the last two years, 6.5 yards per carry on a handful of carries and 3.61 on 28 last year. Pierce has his own questions (college workload) but he certainly has the highest ceiling in Houston. Robinson looks to be headed into the most defined role; Rivera has already said he envisions a split backfield like he had back in the day in Carolina. That’s good news for Robinson’s floor but bad news for his upside. Allgeier is immediately placed in a backfield that needs a early down back and a battle with Mike Davis who was brought in as a free agent. White brings a big bodied athletic presence to back up Fournette, he’s already second on the depth chart and despite his size he showed nimble feet and athleticism at Arizona State that should be well utilized if he can gain Brady’s trust.

 

Tier 7 (52-68) Useful RB 2s and 3s
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB52	Gus Edwards	BAL	81	422	2	9	63	0	56	161	55	-3
RB53	Kenyan Drake	LVR	82	366	3	50	321	2	89	187	59	-6
RB54	Rashaad Penny	SEA	79	445	3	14	97	1	71	96	35	19
RB55	Chris Evans	CIN	29	111	1	25	177	2	42	242	74	-19
RB56	Michael Carter	NYJ	89	391	2	70	420	3	103	116	39	17
RB57	Mark Ingram	NO	115	515	6	37	340	1	114	204	63	-6
RB58	Damien Williams	ATL	77	296	3	18	121	0	55	213	65	-7
RB59	Jeff Wilson	SF	24	101	2	6	41	0	24	279	84	-25
RB60	Pierre Strong Jr	NE	42	168	2	53	328	2	67	265	81	-21
RB61	Isaiah Spiller	LAC	80	297	3	22	144	1	60	134	46	15
RB62	Kyle Juszczyk	SF	2	8	0	45	347	2	44	340	96	-34
RB63	Eno Benjamin	ARI	113	400	3	59	389	2	100	235	71	-8
RB64	Rex Burkhead	HOU	99	390	3	46	307	2	89	245	75	-11
RB65	Sony Michel	MIA	123	517	5	27	162	1	92	186	58	7
RB66	Raheem Mostert	MIA	74	417	3	11	77	0	61	149	51	15
RB67	Keaontay Ingram	ARI	12	47	1	6	38	0	14	239	73	-6
RB68	J.D. McKissic	WAS	48	214	1	64	255	2	57	138	49	19

Penny – I’m much more aggressive on Walker taking control of that backfield and therefore am much lower on Penny. He’s a perfectly fine back and a good piece when he’s healthy. He’s not the receiving back people think he is, his highest target season is 12 and that was as a rookie. He did light it up at the end of the season which I admittedly forgot but the Seahawks drafted the second RB in the draft with a high second round pick suggesting Seattle doesn’t necessarily trust him either.

Evans – I think Evans has an increased receiving role in CIN and is the RB I trust most to backup Mixon.

Carter – Carter is going to be the spell back for the Jets but I don’t think it’s going to be as big of a role as is being assumed.

Wilson – I admit this one is more about uncertainty and injuries in San Fran and I should probably switch him and Davis-Price because I believe more in Wilson as a known commodity and as the injury replacement for Mitchell.

Strong – I think Strong is the heir to the James White role in New England. It’s that simple.

Spiller – Count me as skeptical on Spiller and the backfield behind Ekeler is a muddled mess.

Juszczyk – A really good receiving fullback who I probably have a bit too high but I think we need to remember he’s a useful piece of this offense.

Mostert – I don’t know what this backfield is going to be but I’m pretty sure Edmonds is the only player I want out of this backfield.

McKissic – A really good consistent player that has outperformed expectations for a couple of seasons but if Rivera is to be believed about what they want the backfield to look like I think it means a reduction of McKissic’s involvement with Gibson increasing his passing game work and Robinson picking up the rushing slack.

 

Tier 8 Rookies and 3rd/4th Options
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB69	Hassan Haskins	TEN	94	353	3	11	65	0	54	215	67	2
RB70	Jerome Ford	CLE	32	124	1	10	72	0	25	409	117	-47
RB71	Joshua Kelley	LAC	45	148	2	16	108	1	38	405	116	-45
RB72	Boston Scott	PHI	77	336	4	6	39	0	54	274	83	-11
RB73	Tony Jones Jr	NO	69	187	3	22	175	0	48	342	97	-24
RB74	Jerick McKinnon	KC	10	43	0	17	113	0	18	214	66	8
RB75	Benny Snell Jr	PIT	36	127	2	3	19	0	23	322	91	-16
RB76	Samaje Perine	CIN	53	208	1	19	137	1	40	256	77	-1
RB77	Mike Davis	BAL	41	162	1	9	54	0	26	261	80	-3
RB78	James White	NE	9	38	0	18	121	1	21	220	68	10
RB79	Trayveon Williams	CIN	17	79	0	3	18	0	10	412	118	-39
RB80	Tyler Badie	BAL	3	10	0	14	97	1	16	295	85	-5
RB81	Ty Chandler	MIN	18	66	1	6	42	0	15	396	112	-31
RB82	Darrel Williams	ARI	37	136	2	9	67	0	30	159	54	28
RB83	Kyren Williams	LAR	34	127	1	16	102	1	30	330	93	-10
RB84	Matt Breida	NYG	93	457	1	41	271	2	87	236	72	12
RB85	Rico Dowdle	DAL	36	135	1	6	41	0	24	412	118	-33
RB86	Tyrion Davis-Price	SF	83	304	3	15	95	0	52	182	57	29
RB87	D'Onta Foreman	CAR	27	113	1	12	112	1	29	192	61	26
RB88	Chris Carson	SEA	68	309	2	9	56	0	47	232	70	18
RB89	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	TB	40	185	2	7	38	0	32	267	82	7
RB90	Zamir White	LVR	70	267	5	21	126	0	58	201	62	28

Ford – He’s a very talented back who I think works his way into the injury replacement role in Cleveland.

Kelley – 3^rd on the depth chart, don’t really want any non-Ekeler backs in LA.

Jones Jr – Abram Smith is the new Jones and he has fallen too far because of almost nothing.

Tr. Williams – This is a potential play in Cincinnati but we’re purely in deep deep stash territory.

Chandler – I hate that I have to choose between him and Nwangwu but I think Chandler is more well-rounded.

Da. Williams – He’s a perfectly fine player but I’d rather have Benjamin or Ingram as supplementary options behind Conner.

Dowdle – Will probably be the only non-Elliott/Pollard option on Dallas’ roster and is the clear third option there.

Davis-Price – Talked about Wilson above, I don’t hate Davis-Price I’ll wait and see on his role in SF.

Foreman – Buried behind McCaffrey and Hubbard.

White – Don’t hate the player and think he’s a fine dynasty stash but Jacobs and Drake are going to take up most of the work in this offense.

 

Tier 9 & 10 Overvalued Flyers
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
RB92	Myles Gaskin	MIA	25	93	1	3	16	0	15	257	78	14
RB104	Snoop Conner	JAX	73	293	3	22	117	0	53	302	86	18
RB108	Brandon Bolden	LVR	16	75	1	18	121	1	25	328	92	16
RB111	Jermar Jefferson	DET	19	96	1	11	64	0	20	352	99	12
RB113	Jaret Patterson	WAS	17	66	1	6	39	0	15	345	98	15
RB116	Abram Smith	NO	11	45	1	6	50	0	12	338	95	21
RB118	Derrick Gore	KC	8	42	0	3	33	0	9	320	90	28
RB126	Zack Moss	BUF	3	13	0	5	32	0	6	331	94	32
RB129	Dontrell Hilliard	TEN	5	26	0	3	17	0	5	260	79	50
RB135	Trey Sermon	SF	5	19	0	3	22	0	5	248	76	59
RB167	D'Ernest Johnson	CLE	3	14	0	1	9	0	3	228	69	98
RB173	DeeJay Dallas	SEA	2	8	0	1	9	0	2	353	100	73

These are the players in my bottom two tiers that I’m at least a full 12 picks low on within the position. I chose only those players that had an ADP so we’re able to look at a more complete picture of the differences. Gaskin is the top returning rusher from the Dolphins but he’s fourth on the preliminary depth charts with a new coaching staff that brought in three other veteran running backs this off-season. I like Gaskin but this seems to signal the end to him having a significant impact in Miami. Conner is a rookie and to be honest I need to bump him up a bit and drop Robinson, I forgot that Robinson tore his Achilles week 16. He’ll be much more in-line with his ADP and that’s why I do this stuff because I go look and make sure I didn’t miss something. I’m honestly not sure about Bolden, I think he could have a role considering his history with McDaniels but he’s entering his age 32 season and he’ll have increasing depth chart pressure from rookie Zamir White. Jefferson, was an intriguing player coming out of Oregon State last year and showed up well in limited time last season rushing for just under 5 yards a carry on 15 carries and 2 TDs. He’s got Swift and Williams problems at opportunities though and he’s buried at fifth on the depth chart right now. Patterson got a raw deal in Washington. The drafting of Robinson to be the 1B to Gibson’s 1A means Patterson needs at least one injury and maybe two to get anywhere close to last year’s production. Abram Smith is this year’s Tony Jones, maybe he get’s a greater workload with Kamara out but he’d still be my fourth option on the Saints in 2022. Gore was good enough when given the chance but the addition of Ronald Jones suggests he’s the fourth option and the 2b to Jones’ 1b. Moss and Sermon are going way too high; Sermon was beaten out by a much lower draft pick and spent the year in the dog house, Moss went from favored back in a tandem to limited carries (3/5/5) in the last three weeks of the season and only 1 carry in the two playoff games. The addition of Cook suggests Singletary will take over the rushing role and Cook will take over the general role that Singletary had had the previous couple of years. Our last pair, well outside of Dallas who I think is overvalued because I think Walker takes over the rushing role in Seattle, are Hilliard and Johnson. I assume the assumption with Hilliard is that he will take over the bellcow role if Henry goes down. My assumption is that will be Haskins role. Hilliard, I think gets sniped in the Browns hierarchy by the rookie Ford as stated above.