2022 Fantasy Football - 1st Ranks - Quarterbacks

First rankings of the year is of course Quarterbacks and as has been the case it’s a deep year with a lot of good choices up top and some interesting flyers in the QB2s range all in all another year to be aggressive or look for values within tiers. Once again, I like ranking the players but it’s important to note that I won’t have too big of a problem with any order switching amongst those players. (QBx denotes tier finishes so QB1 are the top 12, QB2 the next 12, etc…/QB x is the ranking so the top QB is QB 1 and the 12^th is QB 12)

ADP Data is from July 5th

 

Tier 1 (1-3) Elite Tier
Rank	Player	Team	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TDs	INT	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
QB1	Josh Allen	BUF	641	4994	37	16	112	616	8	466	26	1	0
QB2	Patrick Mahomes	KC	660	5693	41	10	63	314	3	466	35	2	0
QB3	Justin Herbert	LAC	634	4991	41	15	68	310	5	440	38	3	0

 

Northing of note specific rank-wise but Herbert in the top tier might leave some puzzled. The players in the next tier all have a question that worries me, Herbert, like Allen and Mahomes, doesn’t. He’s mobile enough to take advantage of a handful of scoring opportunities on the ground, he’s young and in the upswing of his career, and a touch more efficiency this year easily puts him withing range of Allen and Mahomes.

 

Tier 2 (4-9) Elite with Questions Tier
Rank	Player	Team	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TDs	INT	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
QB4	Lamar Jackson	BAL	449	3582	25	9	154	922	5	373	52	4	0
QB5	Dak Prescott	DAL	601	4839	33	12	48	229	4	382	76	9	-4
QB6	Tom Brady	TB	691	5543	42	14	30	50	2	425	74	8	-2
QB7	Kyler Murray	ARI	586	4469	28	14	123	701	6	395	59	5	2
QB8	Aaron Rodgers	GB	545	4590	38	6	34	168	2	394	91	12	-4
QB9	Jalen Hurts	PHI	520	4255	30	18	142	799	8	415	64	6	3

 

No huge differences here, I’m higher on Prescott and Rodgers, they’re just very consistent, and play on offenses that will allow them to score. No one in this tier is horribly out of place, but I have Hurts at the bottom of the tier because he’s the one I have the least faith in to be consistent week in week out. That said Hurts definitely fits a rushing QB archetype along the lines of Jackson and Murray.

 

Tier 3 (10-12) Elite Floors, Limited Ceilings Tier
Rank	Player	Team	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TDs	INT	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
QB10	Joe Burrow	CIN	523	4380	33	15	48	163	1	337	72	7	3
QB11	Russell Wilson	DEN	542	4566	35	12	99	547	4	416	88	11	0
QB12	Matthew Stafford	LAR	623	4917	38	20	34	112	1	372	85	10	2

 

This tier is tricky for me because how do you handle players that have extremely high and consistent floors but also limited upside. Burrow could outdo my projections if the offense stays prolific like the second half of last season but with his injury history I would be surprised if they didn’t try to utilize Mixon to take some of that pressure off him. Wilson seems to slump in the second half of seasons and the stretches where the Seahawks “Let Russ cook” seemed to implode a bit and indulge some of his less desirable, and riskier, instincts. Stafford hit what I think is his peak last seasons as a top half QB 5 last year and has a rather narrow range of something like QB 7 to QB 14.

 

Tier 4 (13-14) High Upside, Running Sophomores Tier
Rank	Player	Team	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TDs	INT	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
QB13	Trey Lance	SF	567	4998	28	11	97	430	6	393	107	13	0
QB14	Justin Fields	CHI	522	3964	26	25	117	681	6	354	129	16	-2

 

You could make the case that these two should be in the above and below tiers respectively and I think that argument holds merit but I put them together because I think Fields’ upside on the ground is massive, and he showed himself well in a horrible situation last year in Chicago. It hasn’t gotten much better but that rushing upside is massive. Lance is slightly less dynamic on the ground but still a very real rushing threat, he has a better team around him, but it’s tough for me to completely discount the fact that I wasn’t as sold on his NFL readiness and the fact that at no point last year did he ever really challenge Jimmy G.

 

Tier 5 (15-21) The Kirk Cousins Tier
Rank	Player	Team	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TDs	INT	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
QB15	Derek Carr	LVR	584	4517	34	15	47	137	1	346	112	15	0
QB16	Kirk Cousins	MIN	582	4911	34	14	29	92	2	361	111	14	2
QB17	Jameis Winston	NO	602	5961	34	23	80	336	2	402	157	21	-4
QB18	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	537	4258	32	16	54	267	4	351	167	24	-6
QB19	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	624	4410	33	18	85	388	4	369	140	18	1
QB20	Mac Jones	NE	575	4479	29	15	42	124	2	320	162	22	-2
QB21	Matt Ryan	IND	563	4524	30	14	37	111	1	320	151	19	2

 

Carr is “Next in line to the throne” Kirk, Kirk is “Real” Kirk, Jameis is “Spicy” Kirk, Tannehill is “Was Kirk, wasn’t Kirk, is Kirk again” Kirk, Trevor is “Man he’s too talented to be Kirk” Kirk, Jones is “Young” Kirk, and Ryan is “Old” Kirk. Tannehill is the player from this tier to talk about. Tannehill should probably be no lower than where I have him, he has back-to-back 6 TD seasons, he’s been a QB1 both of the last two years and runs more often than most think. He’s a great bestball option late and he’ll probably save a team in redraft as well.

 

Tier 6 (22-26) Potential League Winner Lotter Tier
Rank	Player	Team	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TDs	INT	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
QB22	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	490	3743	25	14	64	602	5	336	132	17	5
QB23	Zach Wilson	NYJ	593	4223	34	20	54	344	3	359	175	25	-2
QB24	Daniel Jones	NYG	593	4430	31	20	100	582	3	371	165	23	1
QB25	Carson Wentz	WAS	524	3805	24	10	56	225	3	291	184	26	-1
QB26	Deshaun Watson	CLE	254	2198	16	5	53	288	3	202	156	20	6

 

Let’s look at the ways each can potentially “win” you a league…

Tua with the efficiency and short passing game with the addition of Hill and the continued growth of Waddle, and efficiency on the ground makes him a consistent 15-25-point scorer and makes him a mid-QB1.

Wilson makes magic happen with his legs and a more balanced offense greatly increases his fantasy output in his sophomore year.

Jones recaptures his proficiency in the run game while taking on a couple more pass attempts a game with Daboll, and a much more well-run offense.

Wentz recaptures that Philly magic while utilizing McLaurin, Dotson, Gibson, and McKissic. He’s the least likely here as injuries have limited his rushing output over the years.

Watson the easiest to see, he needs to play more than half the season. From a fantasy standpoint when he plays he almost certainly immediately a starting option week in, and week out.

 

Tier 7 (27-34) Bottom Starters, Upside Backups Tier
Rank	Player	Team	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TDs	INT	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
QB27	Baker Mayfield	CAR	571	4373	24	15	46	165	1	287	282	32	-5
QB28	Marcus Mariota	ATL	522	4127	19	11	77	458	4	299	227	29	-1
QB29	Kenny Pickett	PIT	265	1939	14	8	23	75	1	145	254	31	-2
QB30	Davis Mills	HOU	608	4590	32	20	23	56	1	318	202	28	2
QB31	Jared Goff	DET	601	4730	28	14	22	48	1	309	190	27	4
QB32	Geno Smith	SEA	460	3626	28	27	39	171	2	265	343	39	-7
QB33	Mitchell Trubisky	PIT	402	2945	21	12	32	170	1	225	230	30	3
QB34	Jacoby Brissett	CLE	239	2066	15	7	26	97	2	164	307	35	-1

 

Geno has the locker room in Seattle, every current or former ‘Hawks vet has given him the vote of confidence. They aren’t going to be good this year but he’s the most likely starter. Mayfield’s ADP will catch up post news, just not this set of ADP. Pickett gets his bump despite my projections because at this point up side matters more than anything.

 

Tier 8 (35-48) Rookies, Vets, and Backups… Oh My! Tier
Rank	Player	Team	Att	Pass Yds	Pass TDs	INT	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	FP	ADP	Pos ADP	Diff
QB35	Desmond Ridder	ATL	72	566	3	1	22	79	1	47	298	34	1
QB36	Jimmy Garoppolo	SF	27	237	1	1	12	16	0	19	329	36	0
QB37	Teddy Bridgewater	MIA	49	374	2	2	7	28	0	29	412	47	-10
QB38	Tyler Huntley	BAL	110	878	6	8	5	30	0	54	390	43	-5
QB39	Malik Willis	TEN	3	22	0	0	1	5	0	3	378	41	-2
QB40	Drew Lock	SEA	112	884	7	5	11	45	1	70	335	37	3
QB41	Taylor Heinicke	WAS	52	381	2	2	7	39	0	28	412	47	-6
QB42	Matt Corral	CAR	15	118	1	0	9	32	0	13	339	38	4
QB43	Gardner Minshew	PHI	55	449	3	1	9	45	0	37	389	42	1
QB44	Jordan Love	GB	41	347	3	4	13	28	0	23	399	45	-1
QB45	Sam Darnold	CAR	31	236	1	1	18	72	1	27	284	33	12
QB46	Chad Henne	KC	14	117	1	1	4	11	0	9	412	47	-1
QB47	Case Keenum	BUF	7	51	0	0	4	14	0	6	412	47	0
QB48	John Wolford	LAR	3	25	0	0	2	16	0	3	412	47	1

Not much to see here, a Jimmy G trade is gonna shoot him up, Ridder has a chance to beat out or replace Mariota, Bridgewater is a solid option if Tua absolutely shits the bed, Huntley played well in his spot starts las season, and Lock could still beat out Smith in Seattle. Outside of that Willis, Corral, Heinecke, Minshew, Love all need a lot of help but would be interesting starts if given chances.