A
few things to start ROOC is my attempt to quantify rookie talent adjusted for opportunity,
and draft slot. I got two sets of ROOC rankings (2QB and Standard) and then my
own two sets of rankings to go along with it. Now let’s go over some components…
Draft Grade (DrGr) – the grade I gave the player during the draft. Pick
Grade (PkGr) – Grade I gave the pick, use the associated % in the formula. Pick
– Pick used on player in the draft, correlates pretty well with opportunity. Pick
AV (PkAV) – The approximate value of the draft pick. Now/EOS/Y3 –
What I predict the roster spot will be for that player / where on the depth
chart they currently are, Now/End of Season/ Year 3. ROOC2QB/ROOC –
Numerical representation of value based on those inputs. Let’s start off with Superflex
(2QB) ROOC ranks…
Player |
Pos |
Tm |
Dr Gr |
Pk Gr |
Pick |
Pk AV |
Now |
EOS |
Y3 |
ROOC 2Q |
Bryce Young |
QB |
CAR |
6.7 |
A |
1 |
34.6 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
25.56 |
C.J. Stroud |
QB |
HOU |
6.5 |
A |
2 |
30.2 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
24.02 |
Anthony Richardson |
QB |
IND |
6.2 |
A- |
4 |
25.8 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
22.07 |
Bijan Robinson |
RB |
ATL |
7.4 |
C+ |
8 |
21.4 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
20.40 |
Jahmyr Gibbs |
RB |
DET |
7.1 |
C |
12 |
18.8 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
19.29 |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
WR |
SEA |
7.4 |
A+ |
20 |
15.5 |
3rd |
3rd |
1st/2nd |
18.82 |
Quentin Johnston |
WR |
LAC |
7.1 |
A+ |
21 |
15.2 |
3rd |
3rd |
1st |
18.77 |
Zay Flowers |
WR |
BAL |
6.7 |
A |
22 |
14.9 |
3rd |
2nd |
1st/2nd |
18.31 |
Jordan Addison |
WR |
MIN |
6.5 |
A- |
23 |
14.6 |
2nd |
2nd |
2nd |
17.84 |
Jonathan Mingo |
WR |
CAR |
6.5 |
A |
39 |
11.3 |
3rd |
2nd |
1st |
17.27 |
Will Levis |
QB |
TEN |
5.8 |
A- |
33 |
12.3 |
2nd |
2nd |
1st |
17.16 |
Zach Charbonnet |
RB |
SEA |
6.8 |
C |
52 |
9.4 |
2nd |
2nd |
2nd |
15.82 |
Jayden Reed |
WR |
GB |
5.9 |
B |
50 |
9.7 |
3rd |
2nd |
2nd |
15.47 |
Tyjae Spears |
RB |
TEN |
6.0 |
B+ |
81 |
6.6 |
2nd |
2nd |
1st |
15.46 |
Hendon Hooker |
QB |
DET |
5.6 |
B+ |
68 |
7.7 |
2nd |
2nd |
1st/2nd |
15.26 |
Rashee Rice |
WR |
KC |
6.1 |
A- |
55 |
9.1 |
5th |
3rd |
1st/2nd |
15.23 |
Kendre Miller |
RB |
NO |
6.1 |
B |
71 |
7.5 |
3rd |
3rd |
1st/2nd |
14.94 |
Cedric Tillman |
WR |
CLE |
6.3 |
A+ |
74 |
7.2 |
4th/5th |
3rd/4th |
1st/2nd |
14.90 |
Josh Downs |
WR |
IND |
6.4 |
A+ |
79 |
6.8 |
4th |
3rd |
2nd |
14.83 |
Dalton Kincaid |
TE |
BUF |
7.3 |
A |
25 |
14.1 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
14.70 |
Israel Abanikanda |
RB |
NYJ |
6.6 |
A+ |
143 |
3.0 |
2nd |
2nd |
2nd |
14.41 |
Sam LaPorta |
TE |
DET |
7.3 |
A |
34 |
12.1 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
14.38 |
Marvin Mims |
WR |
DEN |
6.1 |
B+ |
63 |
8.2 |
5th |
4th |
2nd |
14.30 |
Devon Achane |
RB |
MIA |
5.8 |
B+ |
84 |
6.4 |
3rd |
3rd |
2nd |
14.27 |
Chase Brown |
RB |
CIN |
6.1 |
A- |
163 |
2.2 |
2nd |
2nd |
1st |
14.26 |
Nathaniel Dell |
WR |
HOU |
6.0 |
B+ |
69 |
7.6 |
4th/5th |
3rd/4th |
2nd/3rd |
14.05 |
Stetson Bennett |
QB |
LAR |
5.2 |
B |
128 |
3.7 |
2nd |
2nd |
1st/2nd |
13.77 |
Jalin Hyatt |
WR |
NYG |
6.0 |
B+ |
73 |
7.3 |
6th |
4th |
2nd |
13.76 |
Michael Mayer |
TE |
LVR |
7.0 |
B+ |
35 |
12.0 |
2nd |
1st/2nd |
1st |
13.76 |
Zach Evans |
RB |
LAR |
6.2 |
A+ |
215 |
0.4 |
3rd |
1st/2nd |
1st |
13.74 |
Roschon Johnson |
RB |
CHI |
5.5 |
B+ |
115 |
4.4 |
3rd |
2nd/3rd |
2nd |
13.63 |
Jake Haener |
QB |
NO |
5.7 |
A+ |
127 |
3.8 |
3rd |
3rd |
2nd |
13.57 |
Charlie Jones |
WR |
CIN |
6.3 |
A+ |
131 |
3.6 |
4th |
4th |
2nd |
13.41 |
Luke Schoonmaker |
TE |
DAL |
6.3 |
C+ |
58 |
8.7 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
13.22 |
Jaren Hall |
QB |
MIN |
5.3 |
A+ |
164 |
2.1 |
3rd |
2nd/3rd |
1st/2nd |
13.14 |
Deuce Vaughn |
RB |
DAL |
5.8 |
A |
212 |
0.5 |
2nd |
2nd |
2nd |
13.05 |
Michael Wilson |
WR |
ARI |
6.1 |
A+ |
94 |
5.7 |
6th |
5th |
2nd/3rd |
13.02 |
Luke Musgrave |
TE |
GB |
6.1 |
C+ |
42 |
10.8 |
1st |
1st/2nd |
1st/2nd |
13.02 |
Aidan O'Connell |
QB |
LVR |
4.7 |
B+ |
135 |
3.4 |
3rd |
2nd |
2nd |
12.95 |
Clayton Tune |
QB |
ARI |
5.1 |
A |
139 |
3.2 |
3rd |
3rd |
2nd |
12.94 |
Tyler Scott |
WR |
CHI |
6.0 |
A |
133 |
3.5 |
5th |
4th |
2nd |
12.94 |
A.T. Perry |
WR |
NO |
6.2 |
A+ |
195 |
1.0 |
3rd/4th |
3rd |
2nd |
12.88 |
Evan Hull |
RB |
IND |
5.6 |
B- |
176 |
1.7 |
3rd |
2nd/3rd |
2nd |
12.86 |
Dorian Thompson-Robinson |
QB |
CLE |
4.6 |
B |
140 |
3.1 |
3rd |
2nd |
2nd |
12.75 |
Kayshon Boutte |
WR |
NE |
6.4 |
A+ |
187 |
1.3 |
5th |
3rd/4th |
2nd |
12.67 |
Eric Gray |
RB |
NYG |
5.1 |
C- |
172 |
1.8 |
3rd |
2nd |
2nd |
12.63 |
Tucker Kraft |
TE |
GB |
6.4 |
B |
78 |
6.9 |
2nd |
1st/2nd |
1st/2nd |
12.51 |
Tank Bigsby |
RB |
JAX |
4.3 |
D |
88 |
6.1 |
2nd |
2nd/3rd |
3rd |
12.46 |
Tier One & Two
- Young, stroud Richardson
are the top tier… all top 5 quarterbacks, you can quibble on the order and I
get why people have Richardson first because of the rushing ability and upside.
The second tier, and I agree, is the two running backs. Robinson is the talent
that you can at least try and justify using a top 10 pick on, Gibbs has some
very special traits like he’s not as well rounded a prospect as Robinson.
Tier Three - Our next tier is the first round adjacent receivers and
Will Levis. Levis has been linked with the other 3 QBs throughout the process
but fell until the top of the 3rd round. He’s a bit of developmental guy but I
could see him popping up a few spots because of position scarcity. As for the
receivers Njigba/Johnston are above with some order of Flowers/Addison and for
me Mingo, but that‘s a more fringe take than the others.
Tier Four - And Outside of that top 11 this is where I think there
is a massive drop-off in certainty and role upside. This tier is bookended by backs
I really like I don’t love that Charbonnet got drafted by Seattle but he still
went round 21 and he should have at worst a spill role with the upside being 1b.
Reed has a chance to be the number 2 option for the Packers and has good draft
capital (Pick 50). Spears, in Tennessee, and Brown, in Cincinnati, at the
bottom of the ROOC tier are a tier of their own for me both are in line to
potentially take over strong productive roles for players rumored to be cap causalities.
Hooker landed in a great space to at least challenge for a starting job, Rice has
a shot at a significant role in the Chiefs offense that is lacking consistent playmakers.
Miller may be in line to replace Kamara if the Saints choose to move on after
the season when he’s no longer a cap albatross. Tillman/Downs/Mims all have talent
and are going to potentially useful offenses but they’re buried for now on the
depth charts. Kincaid and LaPorta should challenge for starting roles by the
end of the season at worst, and Abanikanda is explosive but he’s going to be purely
a home run/spell back behind Breece Hall.
Tier
Five - I prefer Haener to
Bennet but there’s definitely more in front of Haener than Bennett. Dell is
explosive and Houston needs playmakers I just think the overall upside is
limited. Hyatt is a bit buried on a receiving corps with a lot of options but
no real standouts, Mayer might be too low for me and ROOC with a role in line
for him in Vegas, Evans could supplant Akers, Johnson slots in almost traight
away as the backup in Chicago and Jones sits on the precipice of a really nice
third option role in Cincinnati.
Tier
Six -
In the last tier I prefer
the three TEs and O’Connell. Schoonmaker has a shot at a great and productive role
in DAL and both Green Bay TEs hasve a shot at roles tahare currently vacated
because there are 0 true TEs on the roster. O’Connell is on a Raiders Depth
Chart that has perfectly accepatable QB pay and not much else.
Standard
ROOC just shuffles the QBs down with only 5 of them in the top 48 payers.
Player |
Pos |
Tm |
Dr Gr |
Pk Gr |
Pick |
Pk AV |
Now |
EOS |
Y3 |
ROOC |
Bijan Robinson |
RB |
ATL |
7.4 |
C+ |
8 |
21.4 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
20.40 |
Jahmyr Gibbs |
RB |
DET |
7.1 |
C |
12 |
18.8 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
19.29 |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
WR |
SEA |
7.4 |
A+ |
20 |
15.5 |
3rd |
3rd |
1st/2nd |
18.82 |
Quentin Johnston |
WR |
LAC |
7.1 |
A+ |
21 |
15.2 |
3rd |
3rd |
1st |
18.77 |
Zay Flowers |
WR |
BAL |
6.7 |
A |
22 |
14.9 |
3rd |
2nd |
1st/2nd |
18.31 |
Jordan Addison |
WR |
MIN |
6.5 |
A- |
23 |
14.6 |
2nd |
2nd |
2nd |
17.84 |
Bryce Young |
QB |
CAR |
6.7 |
A |
1 |
34.6 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
17.78 |
Jonathan Mingo |
WR |
CAR |
6.5 |
A |
39 |
11.3 |
3rd |
2nd |
1st |
17.27 |
C.J. Stroud |
QB |
HOU |
6.5 |
A |
2 |
30.2 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
17.01 |
Anthony Richardson |
QB |
IND |
6.2 |
A- |
4 |
25.8 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
16.04 |
Zach Charbonnet |
RB |
SEA |
6.8 |
C |
52 |
9.4 |
2nd |
2nd |
2nd |
15.82 |
Jayden Reed |
WR |
GB |
5.9 |
B |
50 |
9.7 |
3rd |
2nd |
2nd |
15.47 |
Tyjae Spears |
RB |
TEN |
6.0 |
B+ |
81 |
6.6 |
2nd |
2nd |
1st |
15.46 |
Rashee Rice |
WR |
KC |
6.1 |
A- |
55 |
9.1 |
5th |
3rd |
1st/2nd |
15.23 |
Kendre Miller |
RB |
NO |
6.1 |
B |
71 |
7.5 |
3rd |
3rd |
1st/2nd |
14.94 |
Cedric Tillman |
WR |
CLE |
6.3 |
A+ |
74 |
7.2 |
4th/5th |
3rd/4th |
1st/2nd |
14.90 |
Josh Downs |
WR |
IND |
6.4 |
A+ |
79 |
6.8 |
4th |
3rd |
2nd |
14.83 |
Dalton Kincaid |
TE |
BUF |
7.3 |
A |
25 |
14.1 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
14.70 |
Israel Abanikanda |
RB |
NYJ |
6.6 |
A+ |
143 |
3.0 |
2nd |
2nd |
2nd |
14.41 |
Sam LaPorta |
TE |
DET |
7.3 |
A |
34 |
12.1 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
14.38 |
Marvin Mims |
WR |
DEN |
6.1 |
B+ |
63 |
8.2 |
5th |
4th |
2nd |
14.30 |
Devon Achane |
RB |
MIA |
5.8 |
B+ |
84 |
6.4 |
3rd |
3rd |
2nd |
14.27 |
Chase Brown |
RB |
CIN |
6.1 |
A- |
163 |
2.2 |
2nd |
2nd |
1st |
14.26 |
Nathaniel Dell |
WR |
HOU |
6.0 |
B+ |
69 |
7.6 |
4th/5th |
3rd/4th |
2nd/3rd |
14.05 |
Jalin Hyatt |
WR |
NYG |
6.0 |
B+ |
73 |
7.3 |
6th |
4th |
2nd |
13.76 |
Michael Mayer |
TE |
LVR |
7.0 |
B+ |
35 |
12.0 |
2nd |
1st/2nd |
1st |
13.76 |
Zach Evans |
RB |
LAR |
6.2 |
A+ |
215 |
0.4 |
3rd |
1st/2nd |
1st |
13.74 |
Roschon Johnson |
RB |
CHI |
5.5 |
B+ |
115 |
4.4 |
3rd |
2nd/3rd |
2nd |
13.63 |
Charlie Jones |
WR |
CIN |
6.3 |
A+ |
131 |
3.6 |
4th |
4th |
2nd |
13.41 |
Will Levis |
QB |
TEN |
5.8 |
A- |
33 |
12.3 |
2nd |
2nd |
1st |
13.33 |
Luke Schoonmaker |
TE |
DAL |
6.3 |
C+ |
58 |
8.7 |
1st |
1st |
1st |
13.22 |
Deuce Vaughn |
RB |
DAL |
5.8 |
A |
212 |
0.5 |
2nd |
2nd |
2nd |
13.05 |
Michael Wilson |
WR |
ARI |
6.1 |
A+ |
94 |
5.7 |
6th |
5th |
2nd/3rd |
13.02 |
Luke Musgrave |
TE |
GB |
6.1 |
C+ |
42 |
10.8 |
1st |
1st/2nd |
1st/2nd |
13.02 |
Tyler Scott |
WR |
CHI |
6.0 |
A |
133 |
3.5 |
5th |
4th |
2nd |
12.94 |
A.T. Perry |
WR |
NO |
6.2 |
A+ |
195 |
1.0 |
3rd/4th |
3rd |
2nd |
12.88 |
Evan Hull |
RB |
IND |
5.6 |
B- |
176 |
1.7 |
3rd |
2nd/3rd |
2nd |
12.86 |
Kayshon Boutte |
WR |
NE |
6.4 |
A+ |
187 |
1.3 |
5th |
3rd/4th |
2nd |
12.67 |
Eric Gray |
RB |
NYG |
5.1 |
C- |
172 |
1.8 |
3rd |
2nd |
2nd |
12.63 |
Tucker Kraft |
TE |
GB |
6.4 |
B |
78 |
6.9 |
2nd |
1st/2nd |
1st/2nd |
12.51 |
Tank Bigsby |
RB |
JAX |
4.3 |
D |
88 |
6.1 |
2nd |
2nd/3rd |
3rd |
12.46 |
Keaton Mitchell |
RB |
BAL |
5.3 |
A+ |
UDFA |
0.1 |
4th |
2nd/3rd |
1st/2nd |
12.28 |
Hendon Hooker |
QB |
DET |
5.6 |
B+ |
68 |
7.7 |
2nd |
2nd |
1st/2nd |
12.26 |
Chris Rodriguez Jr |
RB |
WAS |
5.4 |
C+ |
193 |
1.1 |
3rd |
3rd |
2nd/3rd |
12.15 |
Trey Palmer |
WR |
TB |
5.8 |
A+ |
191 |
1.2 |
5th |
3rd/4th |
2nd/3rd |
11.98 |
Brenton Strange |
TE |
JAX |
6.0 |
C- |
61 |
8.4 |
2nd |
2nd |
2nd |
11.97 |
Darnell Washington |
TE |
PIT |
6.6 |
A+ |
93 |
5.7 |
3rd |
2nd |
2nd |
11.95 |
Elijah Higgins |
WR |
MIA |
4.7 |
C+ |
197 |
1.0 |
3rd |
3rd |
2nd/3rd |
11.65 |
My
Ranks + Comparison
Player |
Pos |
Tm |
Dr Gr |
Pick |
2QB Rk |
ROOC 2QB |
Std RK |
ROOC |
Bryce Young |
QB |
CAR |
6.7 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
10 |
7 |
Anthony Richardson |
QB |
IND |
6.2 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
11 |
10 |
C.J. Stroud |
QB |
HOU |
6.5 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
12 |
9 |
Bijan Robinson |
RB |
ATL |
7.4 |
8 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
1 |
Jahmyr Gibbs |
RB |
DET |
7.1 |
12 |
5 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
Jaxon Smith-Njigba |
WR |
SEA |
7.4 |
20 |
6 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
Quentin Johnston |
WR |
LAC |
7.1 |
21 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
Jonathan Mingo |
WR |
CAR |
6.5 |
39 |
8 |
10 |
5 |
8 |
Will Levis |
QB |
TEN |
5.8 |
33 |
9 |
11 |
22 |
30 |
Zay Flowers |
WR |
BAL |
6.7 |
22 |
10 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
Jordan Addison |
WR |
MIN |
6.5 |
23 |
11 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
Chase Brown |
RB |
CIN |
6.1 |
163 |
12 |
25 |
8 |
23 |
Tyjae Spears |
RB |
TEN |
6.0 |
81 |
13 |
14 |
9 |
13 |
Hendon Hooker |
QB |
DET |
5.6 |
68 |
14 |
15 |
30 |
43 |
Jayden Reed |
WR |
GB |
5.9 |
50 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
Rashee Rice |
WR |
KC |
6.1 |
55 |
16 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
Cedric Tillman |
WR |
CLE |
6.3 |
74 |
17 |
18 |
15 |
16 |
Zach Charbonnet |
RB |
SEA |
6.8 |
52 |
18 |
12 |
16 |
11 |
Kendre Miller |
RB |
NO |
6.1 |
71 |
19 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
Israel Abanikanda |
RB |
NYJ |
6.6 |
143 |
20 |
21 |
18 |
19 |
Dalton Kincaid |
TE |
BUF |
7.3 |
25 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
Sam LaPorta |
TE |
DET |
7.3 |
34 |
22 |
22 |
20 |
20 |
Michael Mayer |
TE |
LVR |
7.0 |
35 |
23 |
29 |
21 |
26 |
Josh Downs |
WR |
IND |
6.4 |
79 |
24 |
19 |
23 |
17 |
Luke Schoonmaker |
TE |
DAL |
6.3 |
58 |
25 |
34 |
24 |
31 |
Marvin Mims |
WR |
DEN |
6.1 |
63 |
26 |
23 |
25 |
21 |
Jake Haener |
QB |
NO |
5.7 |
127 |
27 |
32 |
38 |
57 |
Jalin Hyatt |
WR |
NYG |
6.0 |
73 |
28 |
28 |
26 |
25 |
Luke Musgrave |
TE |
GB |
6.1 |
42 |
29 |
38 |
27 |
34 |
Zach Evans |
RB |
LAR |
6.2 |
215 |
30 |
30 |
28 |
27 |
Tucker Kraft |
TE |
GB |
6.4 |
78 |
31 |
47 |
29 |
40 |
Stetson Bennett |
QB |
LAR |
5.2 |
128 |
32 |
27 |
47 |
50 |
Aidan O'Connell |
QB |
LVR |
4.7 |
135 |
33 |
39 |
48 |
62 |
Deuce Vaughn |
RB |
DAL |
5.8 |
212 |
34 |
36 |
31 |
32 |
Tyler Scott |
WR |
CHI |
6.0 |
133 |
35 |
41 |
32 |
35 |
A.T. Perry |
WR |
NO |
6.2 |
195 |
36 |
42 |
33 |
36 |
Devon Achane |
RB |
MIA |
5.8 |
84 |
37 |
24 |
34 |
22 |
Nathaniel Dell |
WR |
HOU |
6.0 |
69 |
38 |
26 |
35 |
24 |
Keaton Mitchell |
RB |
BAL |
5.3 |
UDFA |
39 |
49 |
36 |
42 |
Charlie Jones |
WR |
CIN |
6.3 |
131 |
40 |
33 |
37 |
29 |
Jaren Hall |
QB |
MIN |
5.3 |
164 |
41 |
35 |
49 |
58 |
Clayton Tune |
QB |
ARI |
5.1 |
139 |
42 |
40 |
49 |
66 |
Roschon Johnson |
RB |
CHI |
5.5 |
115 |
43 |
31 |
39 |
28 |
Zack Kuntz |
TE |
NYJ |
6.7 |
220 |
44 |
78 |
40 |
69 |
Michael Wilson |
WR |
ARI |
6.1 |
94 |
45 |
37 |
41 |
33 |
Darnell Washington |
TE |
PIT |
6.6 |
93 |
46 |
55 |
42 |
47 |
Dorian Thompson-Robinson |
QB |
CLE |
4.6 |
140 |
47 |
44 |
49 |
64 |
Max Duggan |
QB |
LAC |
5.1 |
239 |
48 |
50 |
49 |
72 |
Evan Hull |
RB |
IND |
5.6 |
176 |
49 |
43 |
49 |
37 |
Kayshon Boutte |
WR |
NE |
6.4 |
187 |
49 |
45 |
43 |
38 |
Eric Gray |
RB |
NYG |
5.1 |
172 |
49 |
46 |
49 |
39 |
Tank Bigsby |
RB |
JAX |
4.3 |
88 |
49 |
48 |
49 |
41 |
Chris Rodriguez Jr |
RB |
WAS |
5.4 |
193 |
49 |
51 |
49 |
44 |
Trey Palmer |
WR |
TB |
5.8 |
191 |
49 |
53 |
45 |
45 |
Brenton Strange |
TE |
JAX |
6.0 |
61 |
49 |
54 |
49 |
46 |
Elijah Higgins |
WR |
MIA |
4.7 |
197 |
49 |
56 |
49 |
48 |
Sean Tucker |
RB |
TB |
5.8 |
UDFA |
49 |
61 |
46 |
51 |
Demario Douglas |
WR |
NE |
6.0 |
210 |
49 |
79 |
44 |
70 |