Most Popular This Month

Tuesday, May 2, 2023

2023 Fantasy Football - ROOC Rankings - Post-Draft

A few things to start ROOC is my attempt to quantify rookie talent adjusted for opportunity, and draft slot. I got two sets of ROOC rankings (2QB and Standard) and then my own two sets of rankings to go along with it. Now let’s go over some components… Draft Grade (DrGr) – the grade I gave the player during the draft. Pick Grade (PkGr) – Grade I gave the pick, use the associated % in the formula. Pick – Pick used on player in the draft, correlates pretty well with opportunity. Pick AV (PkAV) – The approximate value of the draft pick. Now/EOS/Y3 – What I predict the roster spot will be for that player / where on the depth chart they currently are, Now/End of Season/ Year 3. ROOC2QB/ROOC – Numerical representation of value based on those inputs. Let’s start off with Superflex (2QB) ROOC ranks…

 

Player

Pos

Tm

Dr

Gr

Pk

Gr

Pick

Pk

AV

Now

EOS

Y3

ROOC

2Q

Bryce Young

QB

CAR

6.7

A

1

34.6

1st

1st

1st

25.56

C.J. Stroud

QB

HOU

6.5

A

2

30.2

1st

1st

1st

24.02

Anthony Richardson

QB

IND

6.2

A-

4

25.8

1st

1st

1st

22.07

Bijan Robinson

RB

ATL

7.4

C+

8

21.4

1st

1st

1st

20.40

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB

DET

7.1

C

12

18.8

1st

1st

1st

19.29

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR

SEA

7.4

A+

20

15.5

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd

18.82

Quentin Johnston

WR

LAC

7.1

A+

21

15.2

3rd

3rd

1st

18.77

Zay Flowers

WR

BAL

6.7

A

22

14.9

3rd

2nd

1st/2nd

18.31

Jordan Addison

WR

MIN

6.5

A-

23

14.6

2nd

2nd

2nd

17.84

Jonathan Mingo

WR

CAR

6.5

A

39

11.3

3rd

2nd

1st

17.27

Will Levis

QB

TEN

5.8

A-

33

12.3

2nd

2nd

1st

17.16

Zach Charbonnet

RB

SEA

6.8

C

52

9.4

2nd

2nd

2nd

15.82

Jayden Reed

WR

GB

5.9

B

50

9.7

3rd

2nd

2nd

15.47

Tyjae Spears

RB

TEN

6.0

B+

81

6.6

2nd

2nd

1st

15.46

Hendon Hooker

QB

DET

5.6

B+

68

7.7

2nd

2nd

1st/2nd

15.26

Rashee Rice

WR

KC

6.1

A-

55

9.1

5th

3rd

1st/2nd

15.23

Kendre Miller

RB

NO

6.1

B

71

7.5

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd

14.94

Cedric Tillman

WR

CLE

6.3

A+

74

7.2

4th/5th

3rd/4th

1st/2nd

14.90

Josh Downs

WR

IND

6.4

A+

79

6.8

4th

3rd

2nd

14.83

Dalton Kincaid

TE

BUF

7.3

A

25

14.1

1st

1st

1st

14.70

Israel Abanikanda

RB

NYJ

6.6

A+

143

3.0

2nd

2nd

2nd

14.41

Sam LaPorta

TE

DET

7.3

A

34

12.1

1st

1st

1st

14.38

Marvin Mims

WR

DEN

6.1

B+

63

8.2

5th

4th

2nd

14.30

Devon Achane

RB

MIA

5.8

B+

84

6.4

3rd

3rd

2nd

14.27

Chase Brown

RB

CIN

6.1

A-

163

2.2

2nd

2nd

1st

14.26

Nathaniel Dell

WR

HOU

6.0

B+

69

7.6

4th/5th

3rd/4th

2nd/3rd

14.05

Stetson Bennett

QB

LAR

5.2

B

128

3.7

2nd

2nd

1st/2nd

13.77

Jalin Hyatt

WR

NYG

6.0

B+

73

7.3

6th

4th

2nd

13.76

Michael Mayer

TE

LVR

7.0

B+

35

12.0

2nd

1st/2nd

1st

13.76

Zach Evans

RB

LAR

6.2

A+

215

0.4

3rd

1st/2nd

1st

13.74

Roschon Johnson

RB

CHI

5.5

B+

115

4.4

3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd

13.63

Jake Haener

QB

NO

5.7

A+

127

3.8

3rd

3rd

2nd

13.57

Charlie Jones

WR

CIN

6.3

A+

131

3.6

4th

4th

2nd

13.41

Luke Schoonmaker

TE

DAL

6.3

C+

58

8.7

1st

1st

1st

13.22

Jaren Hall

QB

MIN

5.3

A+

164

2.1

3rd

2nd/3rd

1st/2nd

13.14

Deuce Vaughn

RB

DAL

5.8

A

212

0.5

2nd

2nd

2nd

13.05

Michael Wilson

WR

ARI

6.1

A+

94

5.7

6th

5th

2nd/3rd

13.02

Luke Musgrave

TE

GB

6.1

C+

42

10.8

1st

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

13.02

Aidan O'Connell

QB

LVR

4.7

B+

135

3.4

3rd

2nd

2nd

12.95

Clayton Tune

QB

ARI

5.1

A

139

3.2

3rd

3rd

2nd

12.94

Tyler Scott

WR

CHI

6.0

A

133

3.5

5th

4th

2nd

12.94

A.T. Perry

WR

NO

6.2

A+

195

1.0

3rd/4th

3rd

2nd

12.88

Evan Hull

RB

IND

5.6

B-

176

1.7

3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd

12.86

Dorian Thompson-Robinson

QB

CLE

4.6

B

140

3.1

3rd

2nd

2nd

12.75

Kayshon Boutte

WR

NE

6.4

A+

187

1.3

5th

3rd/4th

2nd

12.67

Eric Gray

RB

NYG

5.1

C-

172

1.8

3rd

2nd

2nd

12.63

Tucker Kraft

TE

GB

6.4

B

78

6.9

2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

12.51

Tank Bigsby

RB

JAX

4.3

D

88

6.1

2nd

2nd/3rd

3rd

12.46

 

Tier One & Two - Young, stroud Richardson are the top tier… all top 5 quarterbacks, you can quibble on the order and I get why people have Richardson first because of the rushing ability and upside. The second tier, and I agree, is the two running backs. Robinson is the talent that you can at least try and justify using a top 10 pick on, Gibbs has some very special traits like he’s not as well rounded a prospect as Robinson.

 

Tier Three - Our next tier is the first round adjacent receivers and Will Levis. Levis has been linked with the other 3 QBs throughout the process but fell until the top of the 3rd round. He’s a bit of developmental guy but I could see him popping up a few spots because of position scarcity. As for the receivers Njigba/Johnston are above with some order of Flowers/Addison and for me Mingo, but that‘s a more fringe take than the others.

 

Tier Four - And Outside of that top 11 this is where I think there is a massive drop-off in certainty and role upside. This tier is bookended by backs I really like I don’t love that Charbonnet got drafted by Seattle but he still went round 21 and he should have at worst a spill role with the upside being 1b. Reed has a chance to be the number 2 option for the Packers and has good draft capital (Pick 50). Spears, in Tennessee, and Brown, in Cincinnati, at the bottom of the ROOC tier are a tier of their own for me both are in line to potentially take over strong productive roles for players rumored to be cap causalities. Hooker landed in a great space to at least challenge for a starting job, Rice has a shot at a significant role in the Chiefs offense that is lacking consistent playmakers. Miller may be in line to replace Kamara if the Saints choose to move on after the season when he’s no longer a cap albatross. Tillman/Downs/Mims all have talent and are going to potentially useful offenses but they’re buried for now on the depth charts. Kincaid and LaPorta should challenge for starting roles by the end of the season at worst, and Abanikanda is explosive but he’s going to be purely a home run/spell back behind Breece Hall.

 

Tier Five - I prefer Haener to Bennet but there’s definitely more in front of Haener than Bennett. Dell is explosive and Houston needs playmakers I just think the overall upside is limited. Hyatt is a bit buried on a receiving corps with a lot of options but no real standouts, Mayer might be too low for me and ROOC with a role in line for him in Vegas, Evans could supplant Akers, Johnson slots in almost traight away as the backup in Chicago and Jones sits on the precipice of a really nice third option role in Cincinnati.

 

Tier Six - In the last tier I prefer the three TEs and O’Connell. Schoonmaker has a shot at a great and productive role in DAL and both Green Bay TEs hasve a shot at roles tahare currently vacated because there are 0 true TEs on the roster. O’Connell is on a Raiders Depth Chart that has perfectly accepatable QB pay and not much else.

 

Standard ROOC just shuffles the QBs down with only 5 of them in the top 48 payers.

 

Player

Pos

Tm

Dr

Gr

Pk

Gr

Pick

Pk

AV

Now

EOS

Y3

ROOC

Bijan Robinson

RB

ATL

7.4

C+

8

21.4

1st

1st

1st

20.40

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB

DET

7.1

C

12

18.8

1st

1st

1st

19.29

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR

SEA

7.4

A+

20

15.5

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd

18.82

Quentin Johnston

WR

LAC

7.1

A+

21

15.2

3rd

3rd

1st

18.77

Zay Flowers

WR

BAL

6.7

A

22

14.9

3rd

2nd

1st/2nd

18.31

Jordan Addison

WR

MIN

6.5

A-

23

14.6

2nd

2nd

2nd

17.84

Bryce Young

QB

CAR

6.7

A

1

34.6

1st

1st

1st

17.78

Jonathan Mingo

WR

CAR

6.5

A

39

11.3

3rd

2nd

1st

17.27

C.J. Stroud

QB

HOU

6.5

A

2

30.2

1st

1st

1st

17.01

Anthony Richardson

QB

IND

6.2

A-

4

25.8

1st

1st

1st

16.04

Zach Charbonnet

RB

SEA

6.8

C

52

9.4

2nd

2nd

2nd

15.82

Jayden Reed

WR

GB

5.9

B

50

9.7

3rd

2nd

2nd

15.47

Tyjae Spears

RB

TEN

6.0

B+

81

6.6

2nd

2nd

1st

15.46

Rashee Rice

WR

KC

6.1

A-

55

9.1

5th

3rd

1st/2nd

15.23

Kendre Miller

RB

NO

6.1

B

71

7.5

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd

14.94

Cedric Tillman

WR

CLE

6.3

A+

74

7.2

4th/5th

3rd/4th

1st/2nd

14.90

Josh Downs

WR

IND

6.4

A+

79

6.8

4th

3rd

2nd

14.83

Dalton Kincaid

TE

BUF

7.3

A

25

14.1

1st

1st

1st

14.70

Israel Abanikanda

RB

NYJ

6.6

A+

143

3.0

2nd

2nd

2nd

14.41

Sam LaPorta

TE

DET

7.3

A

34

12.1

1st

1st

1st

14.38

Marvin Mims

WR

DEN

6.1

B+

63

8.2

5th

4th

2nd

14.30

Devon Achane

RB

MIA

5.8

B+

84

6.4

3rd

3rd

2nd

14.27

Chase Brown

RB

CIN

6.1

A-

163

2.2

2nd

2nd

1st

14.26

Nathaniel Dell

WR

HOU

6.0

B+

69

7.6

4th/5th

3rd/4th

2nd/3rd

14.05

Jalin Hyatt

WR

NYG

6.0

B+

73

7.3

6th

4th

2nd

13.76

Michael Mayer

TE

LVR

7.0

B+

35

12.0

2nd

1st/2nd

1st

13.76

Zach Evans

RB

LAR

6.2

A+

215

0.4

3rd

1st/2nd

1st

13.74

Roschon Johnson

RB

CHI

5.5

B+

115

4.4

3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd

13.63

Charlie Jones

WR

CIN

6.3

A+

131

3.6

4th

4th

2nd

13.41

Will Levis

QB

TEN

5.8

A-

33

12.3

2nd

2nd

1st

13.33

Luke Schoonmaker

TE

DAL

6.3

C+

58

8.7

1st

1st

1st

13.22

Deuce Vaughn

RB

DAL

5.8

A

212

0.5

2nd

2nd

2nd

13.05

Michael Wilson

WR

ARI

6.1

A+

94

5.7

6th

5th

2nd/3rd

13.02

Luke Musgrave

TE

GB

6.1

C+

42

10.8

1st

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

13.02

Tyler Scott

WR

CHI

6.0

A

133

3.5

5th

4th

2nd

12.94

A.T. Perry

WR

NO

6.2

A+

195

1.0

3rd/4th

3rd

2nd

12.88

Evan Hull

RB

IND

5.6

B-

176

1.7

3rd

2nd/3rd

2nd

12.86

Kayshon Boutte

WR

NE

6.4

A+

187

1.3

5th

3rd/4th

2nd

12.67

Eric Gray

RB

NYG

5.1

C-

172

1.8

3rd

2nd

2nd

12.63

Tucker Kraft

TE

GB

6.4

B

78

6.9

2nd

1st/2nd

1st/2nd

12.51

Tank Bigsby

RB

JAX

4.3

D

88

6.1

2nd

2nd/3rd

3rd

12.46

Keaton Mitchell

RB

BAL

5.3

A+

UDFA

0.1

4th

2nd/3rd

1st/2nd

12.28

Hendon Hooker

QB

DET

5.6

B+

68

7.7

2nd

2nd

1st/2nd

12.26

Chris Rodriguez Jr

RB

WAS

5.4

C+

193

1.1

3rd

3rd

2nd/3rd

12.15

Trey Palmer

WR

TB

5.8

A+

191

1.2

5th

3rd/4th

2nd/3rd

11.98

Brenton Strange

TE

JAX

6.0

C-

61

8.4

2nd

2nd

2nd

11.97

Darnell Washington

TE

PIT

6.6

A+

93

5.7

3rd

2nd

2nd

11.95

Elijah Higgins

WR

MIA

4.7

C+

197

1.0

3rd

3rd

2nd/3rd

11.65

 

 

My Ranks + Comparison

 

Player

Pos

Tm

Dr

Gr

Pick

2QB

Rk

ROOC

2QB

Std

RK

ROOC

Bryce Young

QB

CAR

6.7

1

1

1

10

7

Anthony Richardson

QB

IND

6.2

4

2

3

11

10

C.J. Stroud

QB

HOU

6.5

2

3

2

12

9

Bijan Robinson

RB

ATL

7.4

8

4

4

1

1

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB

DET

7.1

12

5

5

2

2

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR

SEA

7.4

20

6

6

3

3

Quentin Johnston

WR

LAC

7.1

21

7

7

4

4

Jonathan Mingo

WR

CAR

6.5

39

8

10

5

8

Will Levis

QB

TEN

5.8

33

9

11

22

30

Zay Flowers

WR

BAL

6.7

22

10

8

6

5

Jordan Addison

WR

MIN

6.5

23

11

9

7

6

Chase Brown

RB

CIN

6.1

163

12

25

8

23

Tyjae Spears

RB

TEN

6.0

81

13

14

9

13

Hendon Hooker

QB

DET

5.6

68

14

15

30

43

Jayden Reed

WR

GB

5.9

50

15

13

13

12

Rashee Rice

WR

KC

6.1

55

16

16

14

14

Cedric Tillman

WR

CLE

6.3

74

17

18

15

16

Zach Charbonnet

RB

SEA

6.8

52

18

12

16

11

Kendre Miller

RB

NO

6.1

71

19

17

17

15

Israel Abanikanda

RB

NYJ

6.6

143

20

21

18

19

Dalton Kincaid

TE

BUF

7.3

25

21

20

19

18

Sam LaPorta

TE

DET

7.3

34

22

22

20

20

Michael Mayer

TE

LVR

7.0

35

23

29

21

26

Josh Downs

WR

IND

6.4

79

24

19

23

17

Luke Schoonmaker

TE

DAL

6.3

58

25

34

24

31

Marvin Mims

WR

DEN

6.1

63

26

23

25

21

Jake Haener

QB

NO

5.7

127

27

32

38

57

Jalin Hyatt

WR

NYG

6.0

73

28

28

26

25

Luke Musgrave

TE

GB

6.1

42

29

38

27

34

Zach Evans

RB

LAR

6.2

215

30

30

28

27

Tucker Kraft

TE

GB

6.4

78

31

47

29

40

Stetson Bennett

QB

LAR

5.2

128

32

27

47

50

Aidan O'Connell

QB

LVR

4.7

135

33

39

48

62

Deuce Vaughn

RB

DAL

5.8

212

34

36

31

32

Tyler Scott

WR

CHI

6.0

133

35

41

32

35

A.T. Perry

WR

NO

6.2

195

36

42

33

36

Devon Achane

RB

MIA

5.8

84

37

24

34

22

Nathaniel Dell

WR

HOU

6.0

69

38

26

35

24

Keaton Mitchell

RB

BAL

5.3

UDFA

39

49

36

42

Charlie Jones

WR

CIN

6.3

131

40

33

37

29

Jaren Hall

QB

MIN

5.3

164

41

35

49

58

Clayton Tune

QB

ARI

5.1

139

42

40

49

66

Roschon Johnson

RB

CHI

5.5

115

43

31

39

28

Zack Kuntz

TE

NYJ

6.7

220

44

78

40

69

Michael Wilson

WR

ARI

6.1

94

45

37

41

33

Darnell Washington

TE

PIT

6.6

93

46

55

42

47

Dorian Thompson-Robinson

QB

CLE

4.6

140

47

44

49

64

Max Duggan

QB

LAC

5.1

239

48

50

49

72

Evan Hull

RB

IND

5.6

176

49

43

49

37

Kayshon Boutte

WR

NE

6.4

187

49

45

43

38

Eric Gray

RB

NYG

5.1

172

49

46

49

39

Tank Bigsby

RB

JAX

4.3

88

49

48

49

41

Chris Rodriguez Jr

RB

WAS

5.4

193

49

51

49

44

Trey Palmer

WR

TB

5.8

191

49

53

45

45

Brenton Strange

TE

JAX

6.0

61

49

54

49

46

Elijah Higgins

WR

MIA

4.7

197

49

56

49

48

Sean Tucker

RB

TB

5.8

UDFA

49

61

46

51

Demario Douglas

WR

NE

6.0

210

49

79

44

70