2023 Fantasy Football - 3rd Rankings - Running Backs

 Running back is deeply shallow, in so far as there’s a high class that separated itself that gives way to a deep good group and a lot of variance. There are useful players into the RB6/7 range but also a lack of confidence as you transition out of the RB3 range.

 

Note: For a deeper look Rankings & Projections

 

Pos	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	1st Rank	1st PADP	2nd Rank	2nd PADP
RB1	Christian McCaffrey	SF	241	1109	10	92	688	5	344	1	1	1	1	1
RB2	Austin Ekeler	LAC	238	1035	10	126	902	8	403	2	2	2	2	2

 

No changes, slight waffle on whether to put Ekeler at 1 but I like McCaffrey’s ridiculous week upside a bit more. They’re both great.

 

Pos	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	1st Rank	1st PADP	2nd Rank	2nd PADP
RB3	Derrick Henry	TEN	316	1505	12	46	341	2	304	7	3	7	3	7
RB4	Saquon Barkley	NYG	285	1271	11	85	514	3	325	4	6	4	4	4
RB5	Aaron Jones	GB	233	1190	9	87	566	4	319	16	8	17	6	16
RB6	Tony Pollard	DAL	215	1102	9	70	485	3	283	8	15	9	9	8
RB7	Bijan Robinson	ATL	243	960	12	61	454	3	274	3	7	3	7	3
RB8	Josh Jacobs	LVR	297	1313	10	60	420	1	287	9	10	8	10	9
RB9	Nick Chubb	CLE	293	1533	11	32	231	1	273	5	5	6	8	5
RB10	Joe Mixon	CIN	217	920	7	82	571	3	276	15	9	16	11	15
RB11	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	214	1027	7	87	530	4	290	11	12	11	12	10

 

Jones is going crazy low considering he was PPR RB 9 last year, the offense should lean a little heavier on the run game with him and Dillon and Dillon didn’t not game on him in touches as much as many thought might happen last year. I like Bijon, I’m hesitant to put him over guys I’ve seen handle the workload he’s gonna be comparable to. I’m less worried about the impact of Elliott on Stevenson and more that he just cannibalizes the roles of any other back on the depth chart. Maybe I’m wrong but Elliott would need a fairly large dead cat bounce to really be an issue. Lastly Mixon, since 2018 when he misses no more than 3 -games he’s finished 10/13/4/10 in PPR, with his gains in the passing game last year and a slight reversion in rushing workload somewhere between 7-12 feel right… and maybe that means a tier drop but even then, I’ll be a handful of spots higher on him than ADP. The only really change in this tier is the removal of Taylor whom we’ll get to in a minute.

 

Pos	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	1st Rank	1st PADP	2nd Rank	2nd PADP
RB12	Breece Hall	NYJ	233	1348	10	62	425	3	293	14	11	10	13	13
RB13	Alvin Kamara	NO	246	1113	10	77	535	4	309	30	16	31	14	31
RB14	Javonte Williams	DEN	268	1168	8	74	481	3	289	26	24	28	15	25
RB15	Travis Etienne	JAX	223	1140	7	68	461	4	279	12	13	13	16	12
RB16	Dameon Pierce	HOU	285	1282	8	58	312	3	270	18	14	18	17	18
RB17	Najee Harris	PIT	257	992	8	54	295	2	232	10	17	12	18	11
RB18	Kenneth Walker III	SEA	214	984	8	31	184	1	195	17	19	15	19	17
RB19	Jonathan Taylor	IND	202	1026	10	42	241	1	226	6	4	5	5	6

 

I originally had 3-19ish in a large tier and I decided to break it up a bit. Let’s start with Kamara and Williams. Kamara has a three-game suspension, he comes back to Jamaal Williams, a very good complimentary back, an injured rookie in Kendre Miller, and Kirk Merritt a converted WR. A move back towards an offense that compliments him and all you need to do is survive three weeks and I think you’ll have at worst a mid-RB1 for the rest of the season. Javonte was ADP RB 12 heading into the season last year, he had an unfortunate knee injury and missed most of last year but unlike dobbins last year he was active and healthy through camp, and should have a leading role on an offense that needs to alleviate the pressure on Russell Wilson as he tries to regain his form. I like Najee but I need to see proof of three things: 1) his foot is healthy and held him back substantially last year 2) the offensive line has improved significantly 3) that Warren isn’t going to keep pipping snaps and being more efficient. Zeke status comes on fast in the NFL. Who knows what to do with Taylor, I’m willing to roll the dice that he comes back in week 5 and resumes a great roll with a running QB to alleviate the pressure. You could also convince me he belongs a tier or two down and in the low-end RB3 range and I wouldn’t bat too big of an eye. I’ll take the gamble on talent and protect myself elsewhere.

Running back is already more fun though puzzle-wise than QB top to bottom.

 

Pos	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	1st Rank	1st PADP	2nd Rank	2nd PADP
RB20	D'Andre Swift	PHI	195	900	10	32	215	2	208	25	18	23	20	24
RB21	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	179	685	6	73	549	6	244	13	26	14	22	14
RB22	Alexander Mattison	MIN	255	1053	9	47	327	2	241	21	22	22	21	21
RB23	Rachaad White	TB	231	861	9	65	397	2	248	23	21	25	24	23
RB24	J.K. Dobbins	BAL	194	1137	8	26	169	1	204	19	20	19	23	20
RB25	James Conner	ARI	229	958	9	37	254	1	212	24	28	26	25	27
RB26	Cam Akers	LAR	195	816	6	25	181	1	159	22	38	24	29	22
RB27	Khalil Herbert	CHI	203	980	5	46	311	2	209	34	25	37	26	38
RB28	AJ Dillon	GB	204	884	6	41	282	1	190	32	23	32	27	32
RB29	Raheem Mostert	MIA	188	1011	6	27	184	1	185	45	29	48	31	47

 

The assumption with Gibbs seems to be the same assumption we’ve been making about Montgomery since his 2^nd season, and that’s that he won’t have as large a rushing game involvement as projected and that he won’t affect the passing game work of his backfield mate. We’ve been wrong both of the last two seasons. I think Gibbs is talented but I think he and Montgomery just kind of hurt each other upside-wise. And I think it’s far too risky to lean Gibbs as a fringe-RB1. I think Herbert is the best running back in the Chicago backfield, at least for this season. I think Roschon is a much bigger threat than Foreman but we’ll see how this all plays out. Dillon being a fringe RB3 when ADP has Jones as mid-RB2 when they finished RB 26 & 9 respectively last season slightly boggles the mind. I had Mostert here right around her all off-season and Wilson not breathing down his breath for four weeks and probably more means I’m even more bullish on Mostert. He’s aging but he’s fast and loaded boxes shouldn’t often be a thing against the Miami offense.

 

Pos	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	1st Rank	1st PADP	2nd Rank	2nd PADP
RB30	Antonio Gibson	WAS	109	450	4	87	639	4	227	35	30	35	36	33
RB31	James Cook	BUF	172	980	4	72	461	3	232	28	37	30	35	30
RB32	Miles Sanders	CAR	239	1147	7	47	265	1	221	20	31	20	28	19
RB33	David Montgomery	DET	242	955	8	31	214	1	193	29	32	29	39	29
RB34	Isiah Pacheco	KC	182	810	6	25	189	1	165	31	36	27	30	28
RB35	Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	267	1037	8	20	139	2	193	33	27	34	38	34
RB36	Elijah Mitchell	SF	96	474	4	17	120	1	103	42	43	43	32	43
RB37	Dalvin Cook	NYJ	117	545	6	29	202	2	145	27	181	21	33	26
RB38	Jerick McKinnon	KC	82	332	2	78	537	4	181	40	35	42	37	40
RB39	Rashaad Penny	PHI	62	353	4	17	117	0	87	37	47	39	45	36
RB40	Jamaal Williams	NO	102	407	6	37	242	2	143	36	41	36	40	37
RB41	Jaylen Warren	PIT	103	507	3	37	234	1	130	46	40	53	42	49
RB42	Zach Charbonnet	SEA	103	399	5	34	207	2	126	39	48	38	43	39
RB43	Rico Dowdle	DAL	168	628	8	15	95	0	134	82	158	83	141	84
RB44	Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	97	426	6	8	52	0	90	52	50	57	49	58

 

Sanders is the back relatively high up the rankings I’m farthest off from ADP consistently. I’m a full tier (32^nd to 20^th) off on Sanders, he goes from one of the best OLs/situations in football to at best an average OL and an undefined situation. I don’t see anyone on the roster taking rushes but every time I look at my projections, I think it’s wrong but can’t really find a way to significantly diminish it. I won’t have him anywhere this year and I won’t lose sleep over it. Mitchell is just me hedging McCaffrey and a spot in an offense that should be useful with a huge bump in case of injury. Cook doesn’t affect Hall all that much for me, he just hurst Carter and Abanikanda (who I think is very talented). Taking cook as a high end RB3 just seems too rich for my blood especially when he just started practicing Tuesday. Lastly, Dowdle is my replacement for Malik Davis as 80% of Zeke role in the Dallas offense. The coaching staff talked often about how they need to wisely use Pollard and his stats. He’s going to be really good but they’re going to give him Pollard rests and preserve him as well.

 

Pos	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	1st Rank	1st PADP	2nd Rank	2nd PADP
RB48	Damien Harris	BUF	137	639	7	24	153	1	146	41	34	40	41	42
RB49	Tyler Allgeier	ATL	90	442	4	17	122	1	102	44	44	44	53	44
RB50	Tank Bigsby	JAX	93	353	4	9	51	0	73	50	74	50	62	48
RB51	Trayveon Williams	CIN	68	332	3	41	289	1	119	98	138	83	57	84
RB52	Keaontay Ingram	ARI	98	392	6	43	242	2	146	75	45	79	47	76
RB53	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	108	448	5	28	172	1	115	55	55	54	55	54
RB54	Tyjae Spears	TEN	63	255	4	40	299	2	119	57	57	55	51	56
RB55	Salvon Ahmed	MIA	136	513	5	22	139	0	110	98	121	83	123	84
RB56	Zach Evans	LAR	74	300	5	33	237	1	110	71	46	64	56	67
RB57	D'Onta Foreman	CHI	109	467	2	22	159	1	97	51	51	46	48	45
RB58	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	90	393	3	25	173	1	99	58	61	62	61	61
RB59	Pierre Strong Jr	CLE	40	399	1	41	290	2	128	83	64	70	58	69
RB60	Deuce Vaughn	DAL	76	290	1	32	236	2	93	64	66	72	67	72
RB61	Deon Jackson	IND	79	260	2	32	183	1	91	72	115	83	119	74
RB62	Zamir White	LVR	56	212	5	20	133	1	85	62	141	68	62	64
RB63	Ezekiel Elliott	NE	107	470	5	12	77	0	94	47	181	49	59	51
RB64	Ty Chandler	MIN	70	264	4	12	82	0	70	65	58	67	63	66
RB65	Roschon Johnson	CHI	25	103	1	13	80	1	39	53	72	51	69	53
RB66	Evan Hull	IND	39	145	1	12	67	1	44	73	70	83	66	75
RB67	Chase Brown	CIN	47	188	2	18	122	1	62	66	52	60	65	63
RB68	Zack Moss	IND	49	209	1	3	16	0	31	74	91	83	88	84
RB69	Chase Edmonds	TB	102	457	4	41	265	2	140	70	56	73	54	73
RB70	Cordarrelle Patterson	ATL	68	341	2	27	170	1	87	63	68	63	72	60
RB71	Eric Gray	NYG	38	146	1	11	67	1	44	98	71	75	68	83
RB72	Dare Ogunbowale	HOU	37	120	1	58	332	2	104	98	67	83	73	84

 

Tier 6 speed run:

 

Trayveon Wiliams (51|98) – I love Chase Brown but Williams is clearly the backup to start the year and should be actively involved in the pass game.

Keaontay Ingram (52|75) – Mess of an offense, rave reviews in camp and only a rookie behind him and Conner.

Salvon Ahmed (55|98) – ADP couldn’t have adjusted yet but he’s next in line to take the Wilson carries and snaps.

Pierre Strong Jr (59|83) – We’ve seen the passing game work of Hunt the last few years, and although I think Chubb sees a bump, they aren’t giving him a 400-touch season.

Ezekiel Elliott (63|47) – I’m in the RB6 range vs the RB4 range but I just don’t think he bites into the Stevenson carries that much.

Eric Gray (71|98) – If I’m taking a backup Giants flyer this is where I’m going.

Dare Ogunbowale (72|98) – The nominal passing game threat for Houston. Rather take this flyer instead of Singletary.