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Monday, May 6, 2024

2024 Fantasy Football - Post-Draft ROOC Rankings

 

Alright draft recap and UDFA week lined up with state bowling weekend so this is relatively late but it’s still good and coincides with me being in the middle of a couple of drafts. Without further ado let’s get to the disclaimers and the ranks.

A few things to start ROOC is my attempt to quantify rookie talent adjusted for opportunity, and draft slot. I got two sets of ROOC rankings (2QB and Standard) and then my own two sets of rankings to go along with it. Now let’s go over some components… Draft Grade (DrGr) – the grade I gave the player during the draft. Pick Grade (PkGr) – Grade I gave the pick, use the associated % in the formula. Pick – Pick used on player in the draft, correlates pretty well with opportunity. Pick AV (PkAV) – The approximate value of the draft pick. Now/EOS/Y3 – What I predict the roster spot will be for that player / where on the depth chart they currently are, Now/End of Season/ Year 3. ROOC2QB/ROOC – Numerical representation of value based on those inputs. Let’s start off with Superflex (2QB) ROOC ranks…

 

Player

Pos

Tm

Player

Grade

Pick

Grade

Pick

Pick

AV

Now

EOS

Y3

ROOC2Q

Caleb Williams

QB

CHI

7.3

A+

1

34.6

1st

1st

1st

26.31

Marvin Harrison Jr

WR

ARI

7.8

A+

4

25.8

1st

1st

1st

23.74

Jayden Daniels

QB

WAS

6.5

A-

2

30.2

1st

1st

1st

23.62

Drake Maye

QB

NE

6.8

A+

3

27.6

2nd

1st

1st

23.46

Malik Nabers

WR

NYG

7.7

A+

6

23.2

1st

1st

1st

22.82

Rome Odunze

WR

CHI

7.6

A+

9

20.6

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd

20.64

Brian Thomas Jr

WR

JAX

7.0

A+

23

14.6

2nd

1st

1st

19.31

J.J. McCarthy

QB

MIN

6.3

C+

10

19.9

1st

1st

1st

19.28

Michael Penix Jr

QB

ATL

6.1

C-

8

21.4

2nd

2nd

1st

18.46

Bo Nix

QB

DEN

6.1

C-

12

18.8

1st

1st

1st

18.37

Ja'Lynn Polk

WR

NE

6.7

A

37

11.6

1st

1st

1st

18.20

Keon Coleman

WR

BUF

6.7

B

33

12.3

2nd

1st

1st

17.74

Ladd McConkey

WR

LAC

6.8

B

34

12.1

2nd

2nd

1st/2nd

17.20

Xavier Worthy

WR

KC

6.3

B

28

13.4

3rd

2nd

1st/2nd

17.03

Jonathon Brooks

RB

CAR

6.7

C

46

10.2

1st

1st

1st

16.95

Ricky Pearsall

WR

SF

6.5

B

31

12.7

3rd

3rd

2nd

16.42

Xavier Legette

WR

CAR

6.1

C+

32

12.5

3rd

2nd

1st/2nd

16.31

Adonai Mitchell

WR

IND

6.5

A+

52

9.4

3rd

2nd

2nd

16.26

Trey Benson

RB

ARI

6.4

C

66

7.9

2nd

1st/2nd

1st

15.85

Blake Corum

RB

LAR

6.6

B-

83

6.5

2nd

2nd

1st

15.66

MarShawn Lloyd

RB

GB

6.4

C-

88

6.1

2nd/3rd

2nd

1st/2nd

14.84

Roman Wilson

WR

PIT

6.1

A+

84

6.4

3rd

3rd

2nd

14.70

Brock Bowers

TE

LVR

7.7

C

13

18.3

1st/2nd

1st

1st

14.68

Troy Franklin

WR

DEN

6.9

A+

102

5.1

5th

3rd

1st/2nd

14.66

Jermaine Burton

WR

CIN

6.2

A+

80

6.7

5th

3rd

2nd

14.47

Malachi Corley

WR

NYJ

5.7

C+

65

8.0

3rd

3rd

2nd

14.35

Jaylen Wright

RB

MIA

6.2

A-

120

4.1

3rd

2nd/3rd

1st/2nd

14.31

Bucky Irving

RB

TB

5.9

B-

125

3.9

2nd

2nd

1st/2nd

14.25

Braelon Allen

RB

NYJ

6.3

A

134

3.4

3rd

2nd/3rd

1st/2nd

14.21

Jalen McMillan

WR

TB

6.0

A+

92

5.8

5th

3rd

2nd

14.03

Tyrone Tracy Jr

RB

NYG

6.0

B+

166

2.0

3rd

2nd

1st/2nd

13.66

Devontez Walker

WR

BAL

6.4

A+

113

4.5

5th

3rd

2nd/3rd

13.62

Ray Davis

RB

BUF

5.6

C-

128

3.7

2nd

2nd

2nd

13.59

Will Shipley

RB

PHI

5.9

B-

127

3.8

3rd

3rd

2nd

13.47

Audric Estime

RB

DEN

5.8

B

147

2.8

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd

13.42

Ben Sinnott

TE

WAS

6.2

C

53

9.3

1st/2nd

1st

1st

13.10

Isaac Guerendo

RB

SF

5.8

C+

129

3.7

3rd

3rd

2nd/3rd

13.08

Jordan Travis

QB

NYJ

5.4

A+

171

1.9

3rd

3rd

2nd

12.75

Spencer Rattler

QB

NO

5.0

A+

150

2.7

3rd

3rd

2nd

12.74

Luke McCaffrey

WR

WAS

5.1

D+

100

5.3

3rd

3rd

3rd

12.55

Jacob Cowing

WR

SF

6.0

A+

135

3.4

5th

4th

3rd

12.44

Theo Johnson

TE

NYG

6.7

A+

106

4.9

3rd

2nd

1st

12.35

Ja'Tavion Sanders

TE

CAR

6.4

A+

101

5.2

3rd

2nd

1st

12.30

Michael Pratt

QB

GB

5.0

A+

245

0.1

3rd

2nd

2nd

12.18

Malik Washington

WR

MIA

6.0

A+

184

1.4

5th

3rd/4th

2nd/3rd

12.18

Keilan Robinson

RB

JAX

5.5

D

167

2.0

4th

3rd

2nd/3rd

12.14

Joe Milton III

QB

NE

5.5

A+

193

1.1

4th

3rd

2nd/3rd

12.10

Dylan Laube

RB

LVR

5.4

C-

208

0.6

4th

3rd

2nd

12.05

 

Tier 1 & 2 – There are two players that bookend these tiers we need to talk about first. Caleb is #1 and by himself in tier 1, he has everything you’d want in a first pick, my top QB heading into the draft, first overall  pick, and clear day 1 starter, he gapped the field in the ROOC rankings and it’s not particularily close. On the other end of these tiers I included Rome in tier 2 because (I had previously tried to justify it on pure logic but..) I just think he was that good of a prospect and instead of making a 1 player tier 3, I slotted him in with players I had him on par with as a draft prospect. Back to the rest of tier 2, Harrison and Nabers are WR1s day one for the Cardinals and Giants, while Maye and Daniels were top 5 picks and day one starters as well. While I would not have Harrison above Maye and Daniels, I know why my numbers put him there ever so slightly.

 

Tier 3 & 4 – Unsurprisingly with 6 of the top 12 picks in the NFL draft being QBs tier 3 is dominated by the second trio, McCarthy for me is undervalued by my ROOC rankings and it’s because while I didn’t love the pick in practice (gave it a C+) he slots into a perfect situation with multiple great weapons and an offense that can be molded around a QBs strength pretty readily. Penix on the other hand is boosted up just a touch by the fact that I don’t position adjust depth chart placement. So, 8th overall, 2nd on the depth chart, equals 9th and above Nix who presumably will be the starter in Denver and went 12th. Thomas should be a starter in Jacksonville, and with Zay Jones being cut there isn’t much to block a large role early on. Lastly is Polk, who I and ROOC are much higher on than consensus, most have him in the end of round 2 range (22-26) ROOC has him 11th, I have him 10th and it’s a combination of me being higher on him than most heading into the draft and the fact that there’s like one NFL quality receiver on the Patriots roster. Tier 4 Sees the most of the remaining 1st and 2nd round receivers with Coleman/McConkey/Worthy all projected to slot into WR2 or WR3 roles on their new teams. The tier also contains our first running back, Brooks was taken mid-2nd round in the draft but is coming off an ACL injury and being slotted behind one of the worst lines in the NFL. He’s a fun player and will probably be drafted a bit higher just because people want/need running backs right now.

 

Tier 5 & 6 – This is where I start to get less certain and as my drafts have gotten into the mid to late 2nd rounds I have been debating where to go. I like Pearsall a good amount but he’s at best the fifth option for the 49ers and for a year and maybe longer. I wasn’t nearly as high on Legette as some but there are opportunities for the taking in Carolina. Mitchell is probably taking over that Pierce role in the Indy offense as the big bodied stretch option, and in a slightly skewed version of the Pearsall problem he’s the 3rd passing option, but the 5th offensive option when you factor in Richardson’s scramble/run opportunities and the Taylor run game. Benson and Corum round out tier 5, Benson has less in his way as is 29 and a free agent next year, while Corum is the same age as the player he’s behind on the depth chart while not having yet shown he can be an NFL running back. Tier 6 is fun, contains two players I really like but for positional or draft related reasons fall down this board, and some intriguing lotter tickets. Bowers and Franklin were highly-rated for me, but TE isn’t weighted overly high and Franklin fell to pick 102, this results in depressed values at least in the eyes of the equations involved here. Joining them are Lloyd who I think could have a larger role than expected in Green Bay this year, Roman Wilson who fits very nicely into a Diontae Johnson style role in Pittsburgh, Burton who’s a bit buried but a player I liked more than expected during draft leadup, Corley who went higher than I expected but is an intriguing slot athlete, the Wright/Irving/Allen lottery ticket running backs behind established running backs, and the 3rd Washington receiver who’s buried on the Tampa depth chart.

 

Tier 7 & 8 is a choose your own adventure, just like the corresponding 3rd and 4th round rookie picks. These are true fliers and lottery tickets the names that pop for me are Tracy, Walker, Sinnott, Cowing, Johnson, and Washington.

 

Standard ROOC ranks sees Caleb shuffled down to 6, Daniels and Maye to the round 1/2 turn, McCarthy to the end of round 2, and Nix/Penix to mid/late round 3, otherwise the order of the skill position players remains the same.

 

Player

Pos

Tm

Player

Grade

Pick

Grade

Pick

Pick

AV

Now

EOS

Y3

ROOC

Marvin Harrison Jr

WR

ARI

7.8

A+

4

25.8

1st

1st

1st

23.74

Malik Nabers

WR

NYG

7.7

A+

6

23.2

1st

1st

1st

22.82

Rome Odunze

WR

CHI

7.6

A+

9

20.6

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd

20.64

Brian Thomas Jr

WR

JAX

7.0

A+

23

14.6

2nd

1st

1st

19.31

Ja'Lynn Polk

WR

NE

6.7

A

37

11.6

1st

1st

1st

18.20

Caleb Williams

QB

CHI

7.3

A+

1

34.6

1st

1st

1st

18.15

Keon Coleman

WR

BUF

6.7

B

33

12.3

2nd

1st

1st

17.74

Ladd McConkey

WR

LAC

6.8

B

34

12.1

2nd

2nd

1st/2nd

17.20

Xavier Worthy

WR

KC

6.3

B

28

13.4

3rd

2nd

1st/2nd

17.03

Jonathon Brooks

RB

CAR

6.7

C

46

10.2

1st

1st

1st

16.95

Jayden Daniels

QB

WAS

6.5

A-

2

30.2

1st

1st

1st

16.81

Drake Maye

QB

NE

6.8

A+

3

27.6

2nd

1st

1st

16.63

Ricky Pearsall

WR

SF

6.5

B

31

12.7

3rd

3rd

2nd

16.42

Xavier Legette

WR

CAR

6.1

C+

32

12.5

3rd

2nd

1st/2nd

16.31

Adonai Mitchell

WR

IND

6.5

A+

52

9.4

3rd

2nd

2nd

16.26

Trey Benson

RB

ARI

6.4

C

66

7.9

2nd

1st/2nd

1st

15.85

Blake Corum

RB

LAR

6.6

B-

83

6.5

2nd

2nd

1st

15.66

MarShawn Lloyd

RB

GB

6.4

C-

88

6.1

2nd/3rd

2nd

1st/2nd

14.84

Roman Wilson

WR

PIT

6.1

A+

84

6.4

3rd

3rd

2nd

14.70

Brock Bowers

TE

LVR

7.7

C

13

18.3

1st/2nd

1st

1st

14.68

Troy Franklin

WR

DEN

6.9

A+

102

5.1

5th

3rd

1st/2nd

14.66

J.J. McCarthy

QB

MIN

6.3

C+

10

19.9

1st

1st

1st

14.64

Jermaine Burton

WR

CIN

6.2

A+

80

6.7

5th

3rd

2nd

14.47

Malachi Corley

WR

NYJ

5.7

C+

65

8.0

3rd

3rd

2nd

14.35

Jaylen Wright

RB

MIA

6.2

A-

120

4.1

3rd

2nd/3rd

1st/2nd

14.31

Bucky Irving

RB

TB

5.9

B-

125

3.9

2nd

2nd

1st/2nd

14.25

Braelon Allen

RB

NYJ

6.3

A

134

3.4

3rd

2nd/3rd

1st/2nd

14.21

Bo Nix

QB

DEN

6.1

C-

12

18.8

1st

1st

1st

14.18

Jalen McMillan

WR

TB

6.0

A+

92

5.8

5th

3rd

2nd

14.03

Michael Penix Jr

QB

ATL

6.1

C-

8

21.4

2nd

2nd

1st

13.98

Tyrone Tracy Jr

RB

NYG

6.0

B+

166

2.0

3rd

2nd

1st/2nd

13.66

Devontez Walker

WR

BAL

6.4

A+

113

4.5

5th

3rd

2nd/3rd

13.62

Ray Davis

RB

BUF

5.6

C-

128

3.7

2nd

2nd

2nd

13.59

Will Shipley

RB

PHI

5.9

B-

127

3.8

3rd

3rd

2nd

13.47

Audric Estime

RB

DEN

5.8

B

147

2.8

3rd

3rd

1st/2nd

13.42

Ben Sinnott

TE

WAS

6.2

C

53

9.3

1st/2nd

1st

1st

13.10

Isaac Guerendo

RB

SF

5.8

C+

129

3.7

3rd

3rd

2nd/3rd

13.08

Luke McCaffrey

WR

WAS

5.1

D+

100

5.3

3rd

3rd

3rd

12.55

Jacob Cowing

WR

SF

6.0

A+

135

3.4

5th

4th

3rd

12.44

Theo Johnson

TE

NYG

6.7

A+

106

4.9

3rd

2nd

1st

12.35

Ja'Tavion Sanders

TE

CAR

6.4

A+

101

5.2

3rd

2nd

1st

12.30

Malik Washington

WR

MIA

6.0

A+

184

1.4

5th

3rd/4th

2nd/3rd

12.18

Keilan Robinson

RB

JAX

5.5

D

167

2.0

4th

3rd

2nd/3rd

12.14

Dylan Laube

RB

LVR

5.4

C-

208

0.6

4th

3rd

2nd

12.05

Cade Stover

TE

HOU

6.3

A+

123

4.0

2nd

2nd

1st/2nd

12.02

Kimani Vidal

RB

LAC

5.3

C-

181

1.5

4th

3rd

2nd/3rd

11.94

Tip Reiman

TE

ARI

6.1

C+

82

6.5

2nd

2nd

2nd

11.87

Johnny Wilson

WR

PHI

5.7

A+

185

1.4

5th

4th

2nd/3rd

11.83

 

My Ranks and ROOC Comparison

 

Player

Pos

Tm

Player

Grade

Pick

Grade

Pick

Pick

AV

2QB

Rank

ROOC

2QB

Standard

Rank

ROOC

Caleb Williams

QB

CHI

7.3

A+

1

34.6

1

1

13

6

Marvin Harrison Jr

WR

ARI

7.8

A+

4

25.8

4

2

1

1

Jayden Daniels

QB

WAS

6.5

A-

2

30.2

3

3

15

11

Drake Maye

QB

NE

6.8

A+

3

27.6

2

4

14

12

Malik Nabers

WR

NYG

7.7

A+

6

23.2

6

5

2

2

Rome Odunze

WR

CHI

7.6

A+

9

20.6

7

6

3

3

Brian Thomas Jr

WR

JAX

7.0

A+

23

14.6

8

7

4

4

J.J. McCarthy

QB

MIN

6.3

C+

10

19.9

5

8

25

22

Michael Penix Jr

QB

ATL

6.1

C-

8

21.4

15

9

33

30

Bo Nix

QB

DEN

6.1

C-

12

18.8

9

10

26

28

Ja'Lynn Polk

WR

NE

6.7

A

37

11.6

10

11

5

5

Keon Coleman

WR

BUF

6.7

B

33

12.3

12

12

6

7

Ladd McConkey

WR

LAC

6.8

B

34

12.1

16

13

7

8

Xavier Worthy

WR

KC

6.3

B

28

13.4

13

14

8

9

Jonathon Brooks

RB

CAR

6.7

C

46

10.2

11

15

9

10

Ricky Pearsall

WR

SF

6.5

B

31

12.7

17

16

10

13

Xavier Legette

WR

CAR

6.1

C+

32

12.5

20

17

16

14

Adonai Mitchell

WR

IND

6.5

A+

52

9.4

18

18

11

15

Trey Benson

RB

ARI

6.4

C

66

7.9

21

19

12

16

Blake Corum

RB

LAR

6.6

B-

83

6.5

23

20

17

17

MarShawn Lloyd

RB

GB

6.4

C-

88

6.1

22

21

21

18

Roman Wilson

WR

PIT

6.1

A+

84

6.4

23

22

18

19

Brock Bowers

TE

LVR

7.7

C

13

18.3

14

23

19

20

Troy Franklin

WR

DEN

6.9

A+

102

5.1

19

24

20

21

Jermaine Burton

WR

CIN

6.2

A+

80

6.7

25

25

23

23

Malachi Corley

WR

NYJ

5.7

C+

65

8.0

28

26

27

24

Jaylen Wright

RB

MIA

6.2

A-

120

4.1

29

27

28

25

Bucky Irving

RB

TB

5.9

B-

125

3.9

26

28

24

26

Braelon Allen

RB

NYJ

6.3

A

134

3.4

30

29

29

27

Jalen McMillan

WR

TB

6.0

A+

92

5.8

24

30

22

29

Tyrone Tracy Jr

RB

NYG

6.0

B+

166

2.0

37

31

37

31

Devontez Walker

WR

BAL

6.4

A+

113

4.5

33

32

32

32

Ray Davis

RB

BUF

5.6

C-

128

3.7

44

33

44

33

Will Shipley

RB

PHI

5.9

B-

127

3.8

40

34

40

34

Audric Estime

RB

DEN

5.8

B

147

2.8

45

35

45

35

Ben Sinnott

TE

WAS

6.2

C

53

9.3

35

36

35

36

Isaac Guerendo

RB

SF

5.8

C+

129

3.7

46

37

46

37

Jordan Travis

QB

NYJ

5.4

A+

171

1.9

49

38

49

66

Spencer Rattler

QB

NO

5.0

A+

150

2.7

49

39

49

67

Luke McCaffrey

WR

WAS

5.1

D+

100

5.3

43

40

43

38

Jacob Cowing

WR

SF

6.0

A+

135

3.4

38

41

38

39

Theo Johnson

TE

NYG

6.7

A+

106

4.9

31

42

30

40

Ja'Tavion Sanders

TE

CAR

6.4

A+

101

5.2

34

43

34

41

Michael Pratt

QB

GB

5.0

A+

245

0.1

49

44

49

70

Malik Washington

WR

MIA

6.0

A+

184

1.4

39

45

39

42

Keilan Robinson

RB

JAX

5.5

D

167

2.0

49

46

49

43

Joe Milton III

QB

NE

5.5

A+

193

1.1

49

47

49

76

Dylan Laube

RB

LVR

5.4

C-

208

0.6

49

48

49

44

Cade Stover

TE

HOU

6.3

A+

123

4.0

41

49

41

45

Kimani Vidal

RB

LAC

5.3

C-

181

1.5

49

50

49

46

Tip Reiman

TE

ARI

6.1

C+

82

6.5

47

51

47

47

Johnny Wilson

WR

PHI

5.7

A+

185

1.4

49

52

49

48

Brenden Rice

WR

LAC

5.9

A+

225

0.1

42

53

42

49

Erick All

TE

CIN

6.0

A-

115

4.4

48

54

48

50

Jared Wiley

TE

KC

6.5

A+

131

3.6

32

55

31

51

Dillon Johnson

RB

TEN

6.1

A+

UDFA

0.1

36

56

36

52

Sam Hartman

QB

WAS

5.2

A+

UDFA

0.1

49

57

49

83

Devin Leary

QB

BAL

4.5

A

218

0.3

49

58

49

77