2019 Fantasy Football: 1st Rankings: Position - Tight Ends

Tight end falls off a cliff like no other position and that includes RB. You go from the consensus top 3 and then you start to have questions from four on down. There’s a lot of promise and talent at the position in the league overall, it’s just paired with quite a bit of uncertainty.

Note: Player | Team | My Overall Rank | My Positional Rank | ADP Overall Rank | ADP Positional Rank

Elite Tier (1-3)	The Good Tier (4-7)
Travis Kelce | KC | xx | 1 | 16 | 1	Evan Engram | NYG | xx | 4 | 57 | 5
George Kittle | SF | xx | 2 | 25 | 3	O.J. Howard | TB | xx | 5 | 56 | 4
Zach Ertz | PHI | xx | 3 | 22 | 2	Hunter Henry | LAC | xx | 6 | 68 | 6
	David Njoku | CLE | xx | 7 | 87 | 9

Not much to see here, we’ll get to the top 7 guy from ADP who’s not in this group, but other than that certain someone missing it’s all straightforward up top.

Good Spots but Lingering Questions Tier (8-12)	The Really Good but Oft Injured Tier (13-15)
Vance McDonald | PIT | xx | 8 | 107 | 10	Jordan Reed | WAS | xx | 13 | 157 | 19
Austin Hooper | ATL | xx | 9 | 108 | 11	Greg Olsen | CAR | xx | 14 | 148 | 17
Jimmy Graham | GB | xx | 10 | 160 | 20	Tyler Eifert | CIN | xx | 15 | 198 | 24
Jack Doyle | IND | xx | 11 | 164 | 21
Jared Cook | NO | xx | 12 | 80 | 8

Tier three brings us a group of five players that I don’t know how to order. McDonald and Hooper are valued pretty close to consensus, but both may have hit their peaks last season. Their continued improvement therefore is based on 80+ targets and better TD luck than last year (both had 4 TDs) and that makes them high floor/low ceiling options. The rest of the tier needs a bit more explanation and we’ll start with the elephant in the room… Jimmy Graham. Graham fell out of favor last season in fantasy because of inconsistent production and a seeming inability to assimilate into the Packers offense. This wasn’t a complete surprise as he was playing for a Mike McCarthy offense that requires TEs to play in line and block, a trait that Graham has never developed in his career. Despite these issues, Graham still saw 89 targets last season and averaged 11.6 yards per catch. He is almost certainly due for some touchdown regression (only 2 in 2018) based on his targets and with a change in HC/offense Graham will hopefully played in the slot or in a pseudo H-back role to get him space and utilize his optimal skill set. As for Doyle, well he was clearly Indy’s top TE target when he was on the field in 2018 and on his target pace in 2018 he would have seen right around 80 targets in a very good passing game helmed by Andrew Luck. He’s going to share snaps with Ebron but he showed he was a viable option in the first six weeks last year with Ebron on the team. Lastly in tier 3, is Jared Cook who is going to be good but not blow your socks off good like some seem to think. On the positive side of the ledger Benjamin Watson was the third most targeted player on the 2018 New Orleans Saints and was efficient (11.4 yards per catch). That said Watson only saw 46 targets, I expect Tre’Quan Smith to add to his role in the club (44 targets last year) and even Kamara or Thomas are less involved in the passing the Saints have seen a decrease in their pass plays each of the last two seasons (674 in ’16, 536 in ’17, and 519 in ’18) as Drew Brees ages. Cook will be a good fantasy option but he’s going to come back down to earth this year as the most optimistic scenario is that he see 40% less targets than last year.

Moving out of my TE1s the fourth tier is filled with players that have a long list of injury concerns but when healthy might win you your fantasy league. Reed is the top of this trio because his highs are the highest when all three have the same floor (i.e. 0 points). Reed is coming off the most games played in a season (13) since his third year in the league, he saw 84 targets and had a healthy 10.3 yards per reception. He did post the lowest catch rate of his career but considering he hovered around 76% in every year before this, a decrease in competent quarterbacking almost assuredly hampered that last season. Olsen is the one that is closest in rank to ADP but is a worrisome case. He fractured his foot early in the 2017 season and came back a couple of months later and finished the season despite soreness upon his return. Then fractured the same foot at the start of 2018, came back after three games and then ruptured his plantar fascia missing the final four games. That a tricky injury to come back from, and at some point, repeated foot injuries for a large, 34-year-old man holds a lot of risk. That all said maybe I should move Olsen down a bit more. Last in the oft-injured tier is Tyler Eifert. Eifert has the games played resume that I think most associate with Reed’s injury history. When on the field Eifert averages around 12 yards per catch and is a game changing option in the middle of the field for the Bengals. That said I think I’m going to knock Olsen and Eifert down my next set of rankings because I can’t quite justify the risk/reward.

Solid Starters, Limited Upside Tier (16-26)	The You’re Only Going to Notice the Ravens Tier (27-37)
Kyle Rudolph | MIN | xx | 16 | 140 | 15	Jordan Thomas | HOU | xx | 27 | 298 | 40
Dallas Goedert | PHI | xx | 17 | 178 | 22	Dawson Knox | BUF | xx | 28 | 287 | 36
Eric Ebron | IND | xx | 18 | 71 | 7	Ricky Seals-Jones | ARI | xx | 29 | 299 | 41
Chris Herndon IV | NYJ | xx | 19 | 149 | 18	Jeff Heuerman | DEN | xx | 30 | 299 | 41
Mike Gesicki | MIA | xx | 20 | 220 | 26	Hayden Hurst | BAL | xx | 31 | 299 | 41
Trey Burton | CHI | xx | 21 | 132 | 14	Mark Andrews | BAL | xx | 32 | 195 | 23
Vernon Davis | WAS | xx | 22 | 299 | 41	Tyler Higbee | LAR | xx | 33 | 199 | 41
Noah Fant | DEN | xx | 23 | 146 | 16	Cameron Brate | TB | xx | 34 | 276 | 34
T.J. Hockenson | DET | xx | 24 | 129 | 13	Jason Witten | DAL | xx | 35 | 214 | 25
Delanie Walker | TEN | xx | 25 | 128 | 12	Adam Shaheen | CHI | xx | 36 | 299 | 41
Nick Vannett | SEA | xx | 26 | 299 | 41	C.J. Uzomah | CIN | xx | 37 | 299 | 41

As we get through my TE2s and my fifth tier we finally get to the Ebron question. Ebron had a breakout last season, his first in Indy, and was aided by the Doyle injury. Ebron was also aided by unsustainable TD production in which he caught 13 besting his previous best by 8. With Doyle and Cain back from injury and Campbell’s addition in the draft there will be more middle of the field threats to take away targets from the TE 2 for the Colts. Gesicki and Goedert are highly touted second year tight ends, Gesicki is a starter on a bad team, Goedert is a backup in an impressive offense. The reason I have the two of them relatively high and Fant/Hockenson relatively low is because rookie TEs don’t perform well in fantasy. Matthew Berry of ESPN just put out his Draft Day Manifesto (You should read it.) and he noted that only once has a rookie tight end and that was Engram a couple seasons ago and in that case every other receiving options seemingly got hurt. So, don’t rely on rookie tight ends, even ones of as good of quality as Fant and Hockenson. Why is Davis so low? I know Reed is relatively healthy but even with Reed in last season the Redskins used both TEs often last season, and with a seeming lack of talent at receiver Davis should be a solid TE2 option with TE1 upside if/when Jordan Reed goes down. Lastly, is Delanie Walker who started slowing down a couple years back and then missed most of the year last season after he fractured and dislocated his ankle. I’m going to stay skeptical of a 34-year-old tight end coming off a shattered and dislocated ankle. As for tier six, well the naming of the tier says it all. I want to rank Andrews higher, but I just as the Ravens drafted them in the wrong order, I don’t trust them to utilize each of them properly this season. Going forward if we get a clear indication of how they plan to utilize them on an offense were Nick Boyle is going to be on the field a lot but a non-factor in fantasy.

Not in my Top 6 Tiers but in ADP

Ian Thomas | CAR | xx | 38 | 249 | 29

Matt LaCosse | NE | xx | 43 | 294 | 38

Gerald Everett | LAR | xx | 45 | 268 | 32

Irv Smith Jr | MIN | xx | 46 | 228 | 27

Geoff Swaim | JAC | xx | 47 | 282 | 20

Benjamin Watson | NE | xx | 49 | 291 | 37

Will Dissly | SEA | xx | 52 | 260 | 31

Jace Sternberger | GB | xx | 53 | 271 | 33

Darren Waller | OAK | xx | 67 | 251 | 30

Blake Jarwin | DAL | xx | 68 | 297 | 39

Alright rapid fire on this lot. Thomas is dependent on Olsen’s status this year. One of LaCosse/Watson is going to be the nominal starter for the Pats, LaCosse will have the job for four weeks, not sure it’s that valuable a position if you’re not Gronk-esque disrupter. Everett and Higbee seem to go back and forth as to who is going to end up with that job and it just sinks both of their values. Early camp reports have Minnesota lining up in more two tight end sets which could bump Smith up into a TE3 but he’s a rookie on an offense that doesn’t have many targets to redistribute. Swaim is the nominal TE 1 in Jacksonville and coming off the best season of his career (32 targets, 242 yards, and a TD); He’s replacing O’Shaughnessy who saw similar targets with admittedly worse QB play, but even with Foles I’m not sure how much a relatively raw and unproven TE is going to see the targets that would make him a top 20 TE. Vannett has the “experience” at TE in Seattle and while Dissly was incredibly productive (15.9) last year he saw 14 targets in his 4 starts. Add to that Vannett is listed as the starter for now and the lack of TE targets means that Dissly falls relative to ADP. I going to be honest, I don’t understand the Sternberger hype. I get that the Packers drafted him in the third round this year but he’s the TE 3 on the depth chart and unless they cut Graham or he gets hurt I don’t think there are enough targets to go around with the additional receiving talent in Green Bay. I’ll admit that I have no idea what to do with the TE position in Oakland. I prefer Swoope just because of his athleticism but even he’s at TE40. So no matter whom gets the starting role I don’t think they are the obvious heir apparent to the target share that Jared Cook had last season. Lastly, Blake Jarwin who split the lead role in Dallas with Swaim last year will be the backup this year with the return of Witten to the Cowboys. Jarwin and Swaim combined for 68 targets last season and it’s hard not to believe that Witten will take most if not all of those targets and possibly more this year leaving Jarwin as just a guy with a handful of targets and untapped potential.

So there we are, my initial rankings of the TE group and there’s a great upper crust, a good second tier, and then the questions start for some good options from advantageous situations. Then it falls off a cliff and there are a lot of guys to look at but discerning which will be the option that breaks out looks tougher than most seasons.

2019 Fantasy Football: 1st Rankings: Position - Wide Receivers

Receiver goes deep with an ever-increasing use of the passing game but it get’s a bit muddy as you get into the WR 2s. I’d like to not here that especially with WRs I’ll be using WR1 and WR 1 to denote two different ideas. I’ll use WR# with no space to note each tier in fantasy (i.e. 1-12 are WR1s, 13-24 are WR2s, etc…) and WR # with a space to denote where players are on a respective depth chart (i.e. Devonta Adams is the Packers WR 1).

Note: Player | Team | My Overall Rank | My Positional Rank | ADP Overall Rank | ADP Positional Rank

Elite Tier (1-5)	Elite w/ Minor Knocks Tier (6-12)
Devante Adams | GB | 6 | 1 | 7 | 2	JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | 13 | 6 | 15 | 6
DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1	Antonio Brown | OAK | 14 | 7 | 18 | 7
Julio Jones | ATL | 10 | 3 | 11 | 4	Tyreek Hill | KC | 17 | 8 | 64 | 26
Michael Thomas | NO | 11 | 4 | 9 | 3	Mike Evans | TB | 20 | 9 | 19 | 8
Odell Beckham Jr | CLE | 12 | 5 | 14 | 5	T.Y. Hilton | IND | 22 | 10 | 27 | 12
	Keenan Allen | LAC | 26 | 11 | 23 | 9
	A.J. Green | CIN | 29 | 12 | 32 | 14

My top seven are the same as ADP my biggest difference is Hill and that all comes down to the news about the lack of suspension There isn’t much to

Very Good Tier (13-20)	Lesser WR 1s, Greater WR 2s Tier (21-31)
Adam Thielen | MIN | 31 | 13 | 24 | 10	Tyler Lockett | SEA | 52 | 21 | 55 | 22
Amari Cooper | DAL | 32 | 14 | 26 | 11	Allen Robinson | CHI | 53 | 22 | 75 | 31
Stefon Diggs | MIN | 33 | 15 | 31 | 13	Alshon Jeffery | PHI | 58 | 23 | 70 | 29
Julian Edelman | NE | 40 | 16 | 38 | 15	Corey Davis | TEN | 59 | 24 | 79 | 32
Kenny Golladay | DET | 41 | 17 | 41 | 17	Sammy Watkins | KC | 63 | 25 | 58 | 23
Cooper Kupp | LAR | 45 | 18 | 47 | 19	Robby Anderson | NYJ | 64 | 26 | 72 | 30
Brandin Cooks | LAR | 46 | 19 | 39 | 16	DJ Moore | CAR | 66 | 27 | 59 | 24
Chris Godwin | TB | 48 | 20 | 51 | 21	Tyler Boyd | CIN | 67 | 28 | 66 | 27
	Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 68 | 29 | 98 | 40
	Christian Kirk | ARI | 72 | 30 | 85 | 35
	Calvin Ridley | ATL | 75 | 31 | 50 | 20

Tier three sees me only slightly different on all 8 players, but no one more than three spots off. We start to see more disagreement as we get to the end of my WR2s. Allen Robinson, Alshon Jefferey, and Corey Davis are 9,6, and 8 spots of difference respectively from ADP and I’m higher on all three. Robinson is on year two with his new team and quarterback and another year removed from his ACL injury should mean a more comfortable Robinson in 2019. Jeffery is going to lose his spot to Arcega-Whiteside at some point in the future but this season he’s still the WR 1 in Philly this year. Lastly, Corey Davis. Davis has been maligned for underperforming, but he’s been hampered by a lack of coherent offensive vision in Tennessee and QB injuries. He’s still looking at 100-120 targets as the true WR 1 in Tennessee. The last big difference is Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is nearing the end of his career, but he should be a great safety blanket for a rookie quarterback to fall back on when in trouble. He’s about 90% of his peak self but with 100 targets 800-900 yards and a handful of touchdowns and you have a solid WR3 or WR4 on your fantasy roster. On the flip side on very low on Calvin Ridley. I’m surprised I’m this low on him, but just at first glance I think the highest he’s going to rise is in that 21-24 range.

Pettis, Sutton, & a Gaggle of 2s Tier (32-44)	WR 2s and High Upside 3s (45-56)
Robert Woods | 78 | 32 | 42 | 18	Jamison Crowder | NYJ | 113 | 45 | 180 | 63
Jarvis Landry | CLE | 79 | 33 | 63 | 25	Adam Humphries | TEN | 117 | 46 | 215 | 76
Dante Pettis | SF | 81 | 34 | 83 | 34	Geronimo Allison | GB | 124 | 47 | 123 | 48
Marqise Lee | JAC | 82 | 35 | 188 | 68	Josh Doctson | WAS | 125 | 48 | 207 | 74
Sterling Shepard | NYG | 89 | 36 | 92 | 37	Marquez Valdes-Scantling | GB | 126 | 49 | 154 | 56
Will Fuller | HOU | 92 | 37 | 81 | 33	Marquise Goodwin | SF | 132 | 50 | 204 | 73
Golden Tate | NYG | 93 | 38 | 89 | 36	Kenny Stills | MIA | 135 | 51 | 170 | 61
Marquise Brown | BAL | 98 | 39 | 159 | 58	Tre’Quan Smith | NO | 136 | 52 | 185 | 66
Courtland Sutton | DEN | 102 | 40 | 96 | 39	James Washington | PIT | 137 | 53 | 101 | 41
John Brown | BUF | 105 | 41 | 167 | 60	Mike Williams | LAC | 144 | 54 | 67 | 28
Anthony Miller | CHI | 106 | 42 | 134 | 50	Quincy Enunwa | NYJ | 147 | 55 | 258 | 92
Marvin Jones | DET | 111 | 43 | 93 | 38	Nelson Agholor | PHI | 148 | 56 | 238 | 82
Curtis Samuel| CAR | 112 | 44 | 118 | 47

Before getting to the big disagreement at the bottom of my WR3s let’s discuss Woods and Landry. For Woods the return of Kupp means there will be less targets to go around and Woods is more dependent on volume than Cooks therefore he’s the member of the trio to drop. As for Landry, his target share is going to go down, and an increased use of Njoku and Duke Johnson (I’m going to irrationally believe Kitchens when he says they have a plan for him) along with better game scripts leading to more rushing from the Browns this year means I have Landry as a solid WR 3 and not a WR 2. Now the big differences Marqise Lee (ADP 33 spots lower), Marquise Brown (ADP 19 spots Lower), and John Brown (ADP 19 spots lower). I still think Lee is the best receiver on the Jags, and at worst the most likely to be trusted as long as he’s healthy. With that in mind the WR 1 from a roster at 35 isn’t ridiculous. I’m not sure what the hesitation is for Brown, he was brought in in free agency and was paid like a low-end starter which should make him the de facto WR 1. He should thrive relatively well in a scheme, and with a QB, which were comfortable pushing the ball downfield often and more successfully than the check down. Brown is replaced by Brown in Baltimore this season. Assuming he returns healthy early on in camp Marquise is a first round WR and is what people are talking about when they say a player is a quick twitch athlete, he hits top speed quicker than anyone I’ve seen. I think a hedge for injury is fine when ranking Marquise, but a bottom end WR 5 seems to be hedging too far. In tier six, well I seem to be at least 10 spots off on just about everybody. Crowder is going to be the slot receiver for the Jets and with Herndon suspended he should provide that middle of the field player that neither Anderson nor Enunwa have shown to be so far. Pretty much the same for Humphries who was brought in to upgrade the slot over Taywan Taylor and also allows them to try rookie A.J. Brown on the outside to start his career. Doctson is the lowest of the WR 1s, but he’s still the best receiver option on what’s more than likely going to be another dysfunctional Washington team. I’ll come back to Godwin, but first, lets talk about the trio of 2^nd or 3^rd year players that I have at 52, 53, 54. I adjusted my as I went along here a bit higher up but after reading and listening to enough it’s pretty clear to me that I’m may be too low on Mike Williams. That said I had Tyrell Williams at 56 in my final ranks last season so maybe I’m not as far off as the ADP data presumes I am (maybe… I’m probably wrong though.). As for Smith and Washington, I’m relatively as high on Smith as I am low on Washington. Smith should fully assume that Saints Ted Ginn role which will win you three weeks a year, while Washington takes over that Steelers WR 2 spot but he needs to take a big leap in his understanding of the offense and utilizing the separation ability he showed at Oklahoma State. I guess I’m somehow going to be high on all of the Jets and Eagles wide receivers and it stems from my belief that their passing games should be much better than last season and, in Agholor’s case the belief that he’s going to be the slot/MOF player on a very good offense. As for Enunwa well the starting three receivers should be him/Crowder/Anderson but even still he’s the possession receiver of the three and will probably get moved down as I get bullish on higher upside players behind him.

High Variance & Low Ceiling High Floor Tier (56-71)	High End WR 3s Tier (72-84)
DK Metcalf | SEA | 149 | 57 | 111 | 44	A.J. Brown | TEN | 224 | 72 | 202 | 72
Desean Jackson | PHI | 158 | 58 | 126 | 49	Trey Quinn | WAS | 225 | 73 | 261 | 93
Keke Coutee | HOU | 159 | 59 | 112 | 45	Donte Moncrief | PIT | 226 | 74 | 194 | 70
Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 161 | 60 | 115 | 46	John Ross | CIN | 227 | 75 | 299 | 103
Parris Campbell | IND | 162 | 61 | 141 | 53	Dylan Cantrell | LAC | 230 | 76 | 299 | 103
Mohamed Sanu | ATL | 163 | 62 | 181 | 64	Cole Beasley | BUF | 231 | 77 | 246 | 86
Michael Gallup | DAL | 194 | 63 | 155 | 57	N’Keal Harry | NE | 239 | 78 | 103 | 42
Dede Westbrook | JAC | 195 | 64 | 106 | 43	David Moore | SEA | 240 | 79 | 232 | 79
DaeSean Hamilton | DEN | 197 | 65 | 150 | 55	Deebo Samuel | SF | 241 | 80 | 175 | 62
Randall Cobb | DAL | 200 | 66 | 236 | 81	Chris Moore | BAL | 244 | 81 | 289 | 102
Paul Richardson | WAS | 204 | 67 | 209 | 75	Devante Parker | MIA | 245 | 82 | 165 | 59
Tyrell Williams | OAK | 205 | 68 | 136 | 52	Zay Jones | BUF | 246 | 83 | 196 | 71
Willie Snead | BAL | 206 | 69 | 269 | 98
Danny Amendola | DET | 213 | 70 | 278 | 99
Taylor Gabriel | CHI | 214 | 71 | 255 | 89

I’m hesitant on Metcalf, not because I think he’s blocked from getting on the field, but because I think he’s going to have Ginn levels of variance on extreme levels. Coutee, like Fuller, scares me with injuries. As a diminutive receiver, soft tissue injuries to start his career are worrisome, to say the least. Sanders is going to move up in my ranks as he’s healthy enough for team drills to start camp, but I’ll be a bit conservative as an Achilles injury at his age may limit him from being fully back physically this year. I’m just a mirror image of ADP on the two Jacksonville receivers, nothing fancy to explain here. I’m low on Tyrell Williams and it’s a healthy skepticism of what a Carr led Gruden offense can look like with a Tom Cable line trying to get Williams open deep. Tier seven finishes up with the Snead/Amendola/Gabriel trifecta who won’t be spectacular options but will provide solid, veteran production in established roles. As we wrap up WR6s and head into WR7s we get the rare exact agreement in my rank of A.J. Brown with ADPs. Quinn’s will have to fight with Paul Richardson for the starting slot spot but I’m willing to take gamble on a player I really liked coming out as my 6^th or 7^th WR on a roster that I can easily drop early in the season. Cantrell and Ross aren’t in current ADP but they’re both WR 3s on their respective teams with Cantrell having the upside of playing with Rivers, and with Ross I still believe in his talent even if the TD production regresses as it surely will in 2019. I’m incredibly low on N’Keal Harry and it’s because when you hear soundly negative reports on a rookie in OTAs, especially when they’re lack of separation concerns, I think you need to take those problems seriously. That said Harry can easily spring back up quickly if we see signs that he’s clearly earned Brady’s trust and looks to be a starter in an offense that may pass less but will be among the league’s most efficient. Chris Moore is going to have an impact on the Baltimore offense this season and he’s worth a flier this deep on your roster. On the other hand, with Devante Parker we’re in full, “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode at this point.

A Bunch of Burners Tier (85-106)

Ted Ginn Jr | NO | 248 | 85 | 257 | 91

Robert Foster | BUF | 249 | 86 | 190 | 69

Mecole Hardman | KC | 256 | 87 | 143 | 54

DJ Chark | JAC | 257 | 88 | 264 | 95

Albert Wilson | MIA | 258 | 89 | 184 | 65

Chris Hogan | CAR | 259 | 90 | 267 | 97

Keelan Cole | JAC | 267 | 91 | 243 | 85

Ryan Switzer | PIT | 268 | 92 | 299 | 103

Equanimious St. Brown | GB | 269 | 93 | 299 | 103

Laquon Treadwell | MIN | 281 | 94 | 299 | 103

Austin Carr | NO | 282 | 95 | 299 | 103

Antonio Callaway | CLE | 283 | 96 | 216 | 77

Demaryius Thomas | NE | 289 | 97 | 241 | 84

Marcell Ateman | OAK | 290 | 98 | 299 | 103

Hunter Renfrow | OAK | 291 | 99 | 263 | 94

Travis Benjamin | LAC | 292 | 100 | 299 |103

Josh Reynolds | LAR | 293 | 101 | 299 | 103

Allen Hurns | FA | 294 | 102 | 299 | 103

Hakeem Butler | ARI | 295 | 103 | 299 | 103

Jordan Matthews | SF | 296 | 104 | 299 | 103

Andy Isabella | ARI | 297 | 105 | 186 | 67

Miles Boykin | BAL | 298 | 106 | 265 | 96

Diontae Johnson | PIT | 299 | 107 | 247 | 87

Foster is going to have to fight with Brown for targets deep and he might overcome that but the investment in Brown was significant even after Foster came on late last season. Hardman’s ADP will drop but he still has a chance to start in KC and I’m probably too low on a player with that kind of opportunity even if he is the fourth option. Wilson is probably the best receiver currently on the Dolphins, and while that is an indictment of the Dolphins roster, I probably should be a bit higher on Wilson considering my stance on Parker from the tier before this. Callaway takes the biggest hit with the addition of Beckham, especially because I expect both Landry and Njoku to eat into his target share. We’ll end on Isabella who I’m 38 spots lower on than his ADP among receivers because even if the Cardinals run primarily out of four wide receiver sets this season he will be the second option out of the slot behind Fitzgerald, but in the middle of the field/ short area I think David Johnson will out target him as well. While on the outside teammate Hakeem Butler looks to have a much clearer path to targets with Kirk on the other side and not much else to challenge him for outside receiver targets.

Players in ADP but Not My Top 9 Tiers

Phillip Dorsett | NE | 301 | 110 | 256 | 90

Terry McLaurin | WAS | 301 | 113 | 281 | 100

Devin Funchess | IND | 301 | 114 | 235 | 51

Demarcus Robinson | KC | 301 | 117 | 239 | 83

Greg Dortch | NYJ | 301 | 128 | 235 | 80

Kelvin Harmon | WAS | 301 | 176 | 283 | 101

Josh Gordon | NE | N/a | N/a | 230 | 78

An interesting set of young and veteran receivers but the I just want to address the big discrepancy here. Devin Funchess is, at best, the seventh best receiving option on the Colts behind: WRs – TY Hilton, Parris Campbell, Deon Cain, TEs – Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron, RB – Nyheim Hines. And I might be a touch overzealous, and think the chance was worth it for the Colts to sign him but a top 60 spot in WR ADP is pretty hilarious to me.

Wide receivers are pretty consistently my most stable projections year to year, but the first set brings up a lot of questions and causes me to doubt everything I know and think. The sheer volume, especially right now with expanded rosters, makes it really easy for players to slip through the cracks and get rated way out of line with their value. That said, it’s a deep group and I redid my top three tiers like four times and even while I was writing this piece up I had to resist the urge to restart the entire rankings to make them better. That’s a job for my next set of rankings but for now this is where we’re at.