Rambling's Week 1 CFB Picks

Football is finally upon us and it is all kicked off by week one of the NCAA schedule. With games Thursday-Monday it's a great way to start off the year. Each week this season I plan to highlight each game played by a top 25 team (unless against an FCS opponent), and a few other that intrigue me that week. So let the inaugural Rambling picks begin.... (ranks are from the AP until the first BCS ranks come out)
Thursday, September 1st, 2011: 
UNLV at #11 Wisconsin, 7:00 pm ESPN, This game is intriguing because it features the first true look at Bucky's new QB and left side of the offensive line, however, this shouldn't be too much of a challenge for many people's Leaders division favorites. Winner: Wisconsin
#20 Mississippi State at Memphis, 7:00 pm, the Bulldogs start off on the road at one of the worst Conference USA schools which shouldn't test them much but State will undoubtedly be looking forward to Auburn the week after. Winner: Mississippi State
Friday, September 2nd, 2011:
#14 TCU at Baylor, 7:00 pm ESPN, TCU should have a top tier defense once again with Tanner Brock and Tank Carder at LB but it's the offense that worries most out there including me, Pachall may be very good but will he be consistently as good as Dalton was for the Horned Frogs. On the other sideline Baylor brings back athletic dynamo Robert Griffin III at QB they will challenge TCU's defense. I think this one will be closer than most think but I think TCU wins in a close one in Waco. Winner: TCU
Saturday, September 3rd, 2011:
Tulsa at #1 Oklahoma, 7:00 pm FX, The most talented team in the country face Tulsa in their first game of the season, it won't be as big of a blowout as many expect it will be but they should win fairly solidly. Winner: Oklahoma
Kent State at #2 Alabama, 11:20 am, The most talented defense in the country should dominate an over-matched Kent State team, but the story line here will be how well a young offense meshes around Trent Richardson and the running game. Winner: Alabama
#3 Oregon vs. #4 LSU (Arlington, TX), 7:00 pm ABC, columnists around the country have said that this game now holds interest for all the wrong reasons but I disagree this game holds even more interest for all the wrong reasons but it still holds the original interest for all the right reasons. LSU is probably the second most talented team in the county and Oregon lost to Auburn by a field goal in the National Championship, and returns much of that talent. But with the subtractions through off the field issues for both squads there is the added intrigue to see who better deals with the distractions off the field. This should be one hell of a game for all those reasons. Winner: LSU
#5 Boise State vs #19 Georgia (Atlanta), 7:00 pm ESPN, a "rematch" of a 2007 route by the Bulldogs, Boise State comes in as the slight favorite this time but, in the opinion of many with the better team. This one is  more important for the Bulldogs after a BCS game after the 2007 season, Richt's teams have gone from 10 wins in 2008, 8 wins in 2009 and 6 wins last year and Richt is squarely on the hot seat and this game will set a tone for Georgia's season. The time zone adjustment will be a little bit of a challenge but I think Boise is the better team in this game and leave Atlanta with a victory. Winner: Boise State
ULM at #6 Florida State, 2:30 pm ESPNU, we will see if the Seminoles will live up to expectations but not this week, the Warhawks will be a nice dry run for E.J. Manuel and the rest of the offense as the 'Noles cruise to an easy one before Oklahoma in week 2. Winner: Florida State

San Jose State at #7 Stanford, 4:00 pm, Andrew Luck's Heisman campaign starts here in a lackluster match-up in week 1 shouldn't be much of a game but watching Luck is always a joy. Winner: Stanford

Louisiana at #9 Oklahoma State, 6:00 pm, pretty similar to FSU and Stanford above OK State has the added intrigue of seeing how seam-less transition between Holgerson and Monken and the effects on Justin Balckmon and Brandon Weeden and the rest of the offense. Winner: Oklahoma State

East Carolina vs. #12 South Carolina (Charlotte), 6:00 pm, an underrated match-up on Saturday and will be buried by other more high profile games but should show us the true mettle of Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks to deal with summer distractions of the suspensions on their coaching staff and of their QB. Winner: South Carolina

South Florida at #16 Notre Dame, 2:30 pm NBC, Notre Dame comes into the year expected to be much better than recent iterations of the Golden Domers and they get a test in Skip Holtz's USF Bulls who, much like their opponents, have underwhelmed compared to expectations in recent years. I expect this game to tell us how big of strides these second year coaches have made with their teams. I think Notre Dame wins but not without some big time drama. Winner: Notre Dame
Akron at #18 Ohio State, 11:00 am ESPN, no Tressel and no Pryor on the sidelines and the Fickell era begins in Columbus and we see what the Buckeyes are made of, if Akron hangs around into the second half the start of the season for the Buckeyes could be a trying time for fans and players alike. If the Zips are done by half-time, I think that would go a long way to bolster the teams ability to hardly miss a beat from the last decade going forward. Winner: Ohio State
Miami (OH) at #21 Missouri, 11:00 am, Missouri coming off of a banner year in which they beat the #1 team in the country, losing a lot on offense from last year including QB Blaine Gabbert, Miami (OH) should be a nice little warm-up for the 2011 campaign. Winner: Missouri
Florida Atlantic at #22 Florida, 6:00 pm ESPNU, after a disappointing 2010 season Will Muschamp hopes to lead the 2011 Gators to a better season all around this game will be interesting to see how Brantley will adjust to Charlie Weis's system. Another week 1 dry run for an BCS team. Winner: Florida
Utah State at #23 Auburn, 11:00 am ESPN2, the defending BCS champs have one of their few easy games of the 2011 campaign, with new starters in just about every place imaginable on both sides of the ball the Tigers should use this game to complete their team continuity and fine tune both sides of the ball. Winner: Auburn
Minnesota at #25 USC, 2:30 pm  ABC/ESPN2, Although Pat Forde has gone out on a limb saying that Minnesota will pull the upset of the week in Southern California, I'm not so sure. I've seen this team this spring and although Jerry Kill is the right man for the job he isn't a miracle worker and his team has a lot of holes talent wise across the board. USC should win this one going away. Winner: USC
Northwestern at Boston College, 11:00 am ESPNU,  this one was intriguing before the key injuries to both teams star offensive players but is now even more intriguing with the continued questions about Dan Persa's knee. This should show us how good both offenses are on a two deep level. I think Northwestern wins but in a game decided by a field goal. Winner: Northwestern
Western Michigan at Michigan, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2, the official start of the Brady Hoke era begins with a small test against the WMU Broncos, it will be nice to see how Denard Robison adjusts to pro style system and how much the defense improves under the tutelage of Greg Mattison. A win in this game will help to solidify changes made this off-season. Winner: Michigan
UCLA at Houston, 2:30 pm, where to start with this match-up Case Keenum's return or Rick Neuheisel on the hot seat at UCLA. Neuheisel was suppose to be the savior of football in Westwood, however he's brought nothing but headaches to his Alma mater, this will probably be Rick's last season at UCLA unless he challenges for the South division crown deep into the season. Keenum on the other hand is held in high regard inside and outside of Kevin Sumlin's team, and there is hope that this game will start a magical season for the sixth year senior. Winner: UCLA
Sunday, September 4th, 2011:
Marshall at #24 West Virginia, 2:30 pm ESPN & Southern Methodist at #8 Texas A&M, 6:30 pm, I'm combining these two games because they are the same game. Two top 25 teams that are among the favorites to be atop to their conferences, facing off against two teams from Non-AQ conferences that look to be among the best in their lower tier conferences. Neither SMU or Marshall is expected to do much in these games other than put up a good first half before fading but we've seen it time and again that there will always be upsets early in the season. I think both these games go late into the 4th quarter with Marshall having the best chance to pull off the week 1 upset. Winners: West Virginia & Texas A&M
Monday, September 5th, 2011:
Miami (FL) at Maryland, 7:00 pm ESPN, the NCAA incarcerated 'Canes head North in this one to meet ACC newbie Randy Edsall in their first game of the year, not sure who will and won't be elligible but I think their are too many distractions around this team to live up to the talent on the roster I think Maryland hands it to them and we see the start of the crumble of the Miami Hurricanes. Winner: Maryland

2011 AQ Preview

With the college football season a week away, now is as good of time as ever to put some thoughts on the season out there. It's stacking up to be a very positive year for college football on the field, the combination of expansion and spread of talent within conferences should make for some exciting games and conferences races throughout the entirety of the year. We're at the exciting time of year where all teams have a chance to do something special and out perform expectations. So let's take a look at each conference heading into the year:
SEC: The West division has dominated the last few years and the conference is on an unbelievable run of 5 straight BCS championships and they should continue that dominance.
Overrated: Arkansas, is expected to pick up the slack left by Mallett and Williams on offense and now they have lost their leading rusher from last season to injury. I think the Hogs take a step back and don't live up to the billing most people are giving them as dark horses.
Underrated: Mississippi State, most expect a better team to come out of Starkville this year, coach Mullen has a good squad and will surprise teams, with South Carolina, Alabama and LSU coming to town they have the chance to shock some people in the SEC West this year.
West Winner: Alabama, I think this is a 3 team race with LSU and Miss State, the winner will more than likely have a blemish on the resume but will be the champ of the toughest division in the country.
East Winner: Georgia, the east is a two team race this year between the Bulldogs and the Gamecocks, Spurrier's team has a good amount of distraction from the off-season but will put up a strong fight.   Conference Champ: Alabama, the best defense in the country anchors the SEC champs this year, Saban likes a defensive orientated team and can win with inexperience.
Big Ten: The 2011 edition of the Big Ten should be an exciting race with the addition of Nebraska and divisions. Although the divisional names are pretty lame they are a welcome addition and with no real elite team showing itself the divisional and conference race should be fun to watch.
Overrated: Iowa, there is an expectation that they will bounce back relatively well from the loss of much of last years team, however I'm not as high on the Hawkeyes because they lost a lot in the secondary and a solid senior quarterback, I think we see another six or seven win team from Iowa City.
Underrated: Ohio State, I know this repulses most of the country and the Big Ten, however, they still have the best recruiting in the Big Ten for the last decade or so and that has helped to build a talent base that should allow the Buckeyes to be a nine or ten win team this year in the conference and challenge for the Leaders division title. 
Leaders Winner: Wisconsin, earlier in the summer I predicted the Big Ten and had Penn State winning the Leaders, however, with the addition of Russell Wilson and his assimilation with the Badgers I see them as the top dogs in the division this season. It will be a close race between Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State.
Legends Winner: Nebraska, as much as it pains me the huskers have the best defense in the conference and the opportunity for one of the most explosive offenses as well. They will have competition from Michigan State and Michigan but I think they are the best balanced team in the Legends division.
Conference Champ: Wisconsin, this is a tough choice and lean towards the Badgers on a hunch, that being said Delaney and his cohorts have to be happy with the product that will be on the field in November in Indianapolis.
Pac-12: Much like the Big Ten the Pac-12 draws interest because of last summer's expansion of Utah and Colorado make this year important for the Pac-12. The North has two marquee teams in the national eye with Oregon and Stanford and the South is mired in an interesting position with no real top rate team.
Overrated: Stanford, let me make this clear I love Andrew Luck as a quarterback but they replace their head coach, the majority of the offenses line and their middle linebacker which all sets them up with large gaps to fill.
Underrated: Utah, unlike fellow newcomer Colorado, has a team that could challenge in the Pac-12 South. Utah may not have the recruits that some in the conference have but they have enough talent to challenge Arizona State for the South championship and with USC not post-season eligible ASU is the only real obstacle to them winning their division.
North Winner: Oregon, the Ducks have enough talent returning to win the Division, at Stanford presents a test but coming off a BCS title game appearance the Ducks have a good shot at the first division title. Distractions will be a big key to their success and will be the deciding factor. 
South Winner: Arizona State, I will buy the hype on the Sun Devils this year and without USC in the way the south is ASU's to win or lose.
Conference Champ: Oregon, best team in the conference wins this one not much else to say, I think the South will bring the weaker of the two representatives this year.
Big XII: The Big XII is top heavy as with most years in the conference with three teams in Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M possibly being elite, however the three team race should be exciting none the less.
Overrated: Texas, I don't see them improving as much as most this year I really like Mack Brown but the offense is shifting to a multiple looks offense and I think we're looking at a two year process. I think Texas ends up a six or seven win team instead of a 8 or 9 win team like many think.
Underrated: Oklahoma State, I know they lost Holgerson to West Virginia but they bring back the best WR in the country in the form of Justin Blackmon and their QB. I think it will be a smoother transition than many think and that OK State will seriously challenge Texas A&M and Oklahoma for the conference title.
Conference Champ: Oklahoma, they are the most talented team in the conference and the team and coach I trust the most to live up to expectations of the three rated at the top. It will be interesting to see how the Sooners and Aggies live up to expectations this year.
ACC: This conference is mired in off the field issues involving Miami, Georgia Tech and North Carolina two whom will likely be hit hard by the NCAA in widespread allegations, however their is light at the end of the tunnel. Virginia Tech and Florida State will take some of the spotlight off of that trio and bring good press on the field. FSU is a National Championship contender this pre-season and Va Tech seems to be a reload team now under Frank Beamer.
Overrated: Clemson, I will claim they are overrated every year until they prove me wrong. The perennial underachievers are great recruiters, but something seems to be missing when they hit the field. Clemson will fail to live up to expectations once again in 2011.
Underrated: Virginia, I'm not saying they will challenge for their division but I do see even more improvement under Mike London in his second year. Although you won't hear much about it, the second year bump will be in effect with the Cavaliers and look for at least one upset that sends a wave through the ACC.
Atlantic Winner: Florida State, I don't think there is too much explanation needed on this one, the only team with the talent to really challenge them is Clemson and you already know what I think of the Tigers.
Coastal Winner: Virginia Tech, the most consistent team in the conference does it again, with investigations at Miami and UNC they lack the distractions of the rest of the division.
Conference Champ: Virginia Tech, Florida State is a slightly lesser version of Clemson in that they seem to disappoint in one way or another every year. Va Tech wins a close one but they win it.
Big East: Everybody's favorite little big conference, or least favorite big little conference is the bane of the BCS's existence because it routinely sends sub-par automatic qualifier to their game. Like many other year the conference appears to be weak and the lament of the college football world.
Overrated: USF, I've heard this song about the Bulls before, a young program ready to break out and grab that all elusive championship. However they seem to fall short and disappoint so I'm not bullish on the Bulls this year.
Underrated: Rutgers, like Virginia in the ACC I don't think they challenge for the Conference but I think they can whip up a winning season and challenge for fourth or so in the conference.
Conference Champ: West Virginia, I'm not big on this pick I think I could get trapped but Holgerson improves offenses as soon as he arrives on campus and that should help a talented WVU get instantly better on one side of the ball. I think Pitt challenges them here which means the Backyard Brawl will be very interesting this year.

2011 Realignment

I wanted to jot down my thoughts on conference realignment and put out there where I think this can logically go moving forward. I think conference realignment is fascinating because of the number of teams in which it involves and effects. First I want to lay out a few assumption that I've made: 1)all conferences want to expand their footprint around the country, 2) only three conference are in a true position to be proactive and poach (SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12), 3) TV markets matter more than pedigree and 4) Pedigree is based most on the last dozen years or so because the public doesn't much care if you were good past that point. So with these things in mind let's look at who those three conferences will be targeting.

SEC
1) Texas A&M, brings Texas into the conference footprint, brings two top 15 TV markets in the form of Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston
2) Missouri, brings Missouri into the conference footprint and brings two top 35 markets in the form of St. Louis and Kansas City
3) Florida State, doesn't expand footprint or bring substantial markets but brings in a top ten recognizable brand to the conference
4) Virginia Tech, expands footprint into Virginia, brings D.C. into play and a solid pedigree under Frank Beamer
5) Clemson, adds only depth to the conference without much else with South Carolina already in state
6) Georgia Tech, SEE Clemson

Big Ten
1) Notre Dame, fixation is dangerous here but ND is FSU on steroids for the Big Ten and the ultimate prize in expansion because of pure needle movement
2) Missouri, same pluses for as for the SEC but with the added bonus of being a more seamless fit in the eyes of many as far ideologically
3)Virginia Tech, See Virginia Tech above
4)Maryland, brings D.C. to the table and expands footprint to Maryland, fits into the conference from a feel standpoint
5) West Virginia, Brings in new state in West Virginia but not much splash here doesn't provide much in the way of new markets or pedigree
6) Rutgers, poor pedigree may bring NY/NJ markets but seems to be more out of the loop than most think, won't move the needle
7) Oklahoma, huge splash but doesn't really mesh with the conference, brings Oklahoma and national fan base to the table but definitely a long shot

Pac-12
1) Oklahoma, wooed during last summer's series of realignment, adds another national brand to conference and is obviously a big target for the conference
2) Oklahoma State, purely on being paired with Oklahoma to convince them to move, doesn't bring much else but a team on an upswing
3) Texas, but with a caveat that they disband Longhorn Network which isn't likely to help this situation but definitely the big fish that Larry Scott salivates over
4) Boise State, doesn't fit much of the criteria other than that they have been the premiere mid-major school over a multiple coaches wouldn't add much in markets but would add a good program
5)Texas Tech/Baylor, secondary choices out of Texas to bring markets into play that the Pac-12 doesn't have reach to, but they do have their appeal in such a broad fan base in Texas would be disappointing to presidents if these were options without Oklahoma or Texas

With all this in mind the Big XII is looking like its in bad shape if Texas A&M leaves and spooks Mizzou or Oklahoma, it may ultimately survive but if A&M goes the SEC will likely look for at least a fourteenth team which is likely to come from the east and has been rumored to Florida State. If the SEC makes the move to 16 however the interesting story line will be a perceived battle for Missouri between SEC and Big Ten. Whatever the case here the SEC and A&M control this latest round of expansion and hold all the cards to the future of the BCS as we know it.

Preseason Polls

Preseason polls have a bad reputation among sports fans especially in college football, as I was thinking about why this is two things became abundantly clear: 1) the public and the pollsters have different views of how they are put together and 2) when games begin to be played pollster stick to steadfast to their preseason rankings of teams and we see the difficulty it causes in the fluidity of opinions of teams. To address the first issue, when looking at the polls it is clear to see that those who vote, vote for the most talented teams as that would point to the most likely to succeed on the football field, however, this assumption isn't without a killer pitfall. Is that the type of schedule will adversely effect the seasons final outcome and yet the end of the season rarely seems to factor into a preseason poll. This flaw would be forgivable if we saw the pollsters willingly alter their rankings before halfway through the season, their should be a high fluidity to the start of the season as we see how the teams are maturing but instead we see a stubbornness from pollsters that doesn't allow for a more tried and true outcome from the polls.