Ramblings Fantasy Football Post-Season Review

Another season in the bank and as always it was a lot of fun. Hope everyone had great years in fantasy and a lot of success. I wanted to take a look at how my rankings did and recap them just a bit. Each positions starters at years end are ranked along with my previous ranks and value over first replacement player along with end of year rankings. (Original, June, Final, Value over replacement) The end of year ranks are based off of scoring for a league I'm in in which INTs/FUMs are not counted and you get a point for every ten yards rush/rec and 30 passing, as well as 3 pts for pass TDs and 4 for rush/rec/def. I feel these points pull out some of the variance that comes along with INTs/FUMs/TDs from year to year.

RB Starters

1) Demarco Murray, DAL: (19/11/7/156%)

2) Le'Veon Bell, PIT: (8/13/13/140%)

3) Marshawn Lynch, SEA: (3/4/6/114%)

4) Matt Forte, CHI: (5/5/4/107%)

5) Arian Foster, HOU: (9/9/11/92%)

6) Eddie Lacy, GB: (6/6/5/87%)

7) Jamaal Charles, KC: (2/1/1/69%)

8) Justin Forsett, BAL: (NR/NR/NR/66%)

9) Lamar Miller, MIA: (NR/38/29/53%)

10) Jeremy Hill, CIN: (NR/56/61/51%)

11) LeSean McCoy, PHI: (1/2/2/48%)

12) C.J. Anderson, DEN: (NR/NR/64/41%)

13) Alfred Morris, WAS: (11/7/10/38%)

14) Joique Bell, DET: (45/37/24/35%)

15) Mark Ingram, NOS: (37/35/36/33%)

16) Frank Gore, SF: (16/17/16/24%)

17) Matt Asiata, MIN: (NR/NR/NR/16%)

18) Giovani Bernard, CIN: (12/8/12/13%)

19) Andre Ellington, ARI: (26/24/19/12%)

20) Chris Ivory, NYJ: (49/57/47/8%)

Preseason Misses: 3) Adrian Peterson (Fin 77), 8) Doug Martin (Fin 49), 9) Montee Ball (Fin 72), 14) Ryan Mathews (Fin 54), 15) Zac Stacy (Fin 61), 17) Toby Gerhart (Fin 56), 18) Reggie Bush (Fin 50), 20) C.J. Spiller (Fin 64)

The misses are the group of players I had as starter quality picks that didn't pan out. Peterson was suspended, Martin/Ball/Mathews/Spiller/Bush were injured. Martin/Stacy/Gerhart/Bush under-performed all season.

Preseason Hits: 21) Fred Jackson (ADP:34, Fin 21) & 40) Tre Mason (ADP:54, Fin 23)

The hits are guys I had as near starters and considerably higher than ADP and/or roster-able players who I was higher on than ADP. Jackson started most of the season and was the best back in Buffalo with Spiller out. Mason was really good in his rookie season and beat Stacy for the lead role.

WR Starters

1) Antonio Brown, PIT: (7,7,7,118%)

2) DeAnthony Thomas, DEN: (2,2,2,97%)

3) Jordy Nelson, GB: (6,6,6,91%)

4) Dez Bryant, DAL: (4,4,4,85%)

5) Odell Beckham Jr., NYG: (83,84,86,72%)

6) Emmanuel Sanders, DEN: (50,50,36,71%)

7) Julio Jones, ATL: (9,9,8,70%)

8) Randall Cobb, GB: (14,15,13,68%)

9) Jeremy Maclin, PHI: (18,31,33,59%)

10) T.Y. Hilton, IND: (29,25,21,57%)

11) Alshon Jeffery, CHI: (12,10,9,44%)

12) Mike Evans, TB: (59,58,55,41%)

13) Golden Tate, DET: (24,24,27,40%)

14) DeAndre Hopkins, HOU: (37,38,34,33%)

15) Calvin Johnson, DET: (1,1,1,30%)

16) DeSean Jackson, WAS: (8,8,12,29%)

17) Kelvin Benjamin, CAR: (74,79,60,25%)

18) A.J. Green, CIN: (3,3,3,22%)

19) Steve Smith, BAL: (64,65,69,21%)

20) Anquan Boldin, SF: (39,41,39,18%)

21) Mike Wallace, MIA: (30,33,32,17%)

22) Brandon LaFell, NE: (103,103,102,16%)

23) Roddy White, ATL: (10,11,19,13%)

24) Torrey Smith, BAL: (31,27,29,13%)

25) Sammy Watkins, BUF: (54,54,42,12%)

26) Julian Edelman, NE: (19,18,16,11%)

27) Jordan Matthews, PHI: (89,89,62,9%)

28) Eric Decker, NYJ: (41,42,35,8%)

29) Marques Colston, NO: (32,30,31,3%)

30) Malcolm Floyd, SD: (87,94,95,2%)

Preseason Misses: 5) Brandon Marshall (Fin 35) 10) Larry Fitzgerald (Fin 51) 11) Victor Jackson (Fin 31) 14) Victor Cruz (Fin 86) 15) Andre Johnson (Fin 36) 17) Pierre Garcon (Fin 54) 18) Keenan Allen (Fin 43) 20) Michael Crabtree (Fin 55) 23) Reggie Wayne (Fin 52) 24) Percy Harvin (Fin 59) 26) Cordarelle Patterson (Fin 79) 28) Riley Cooper (Fin 65)

First off, Marshall/V. Jackson/An. Johnson all were highly roster-able and useful parts most of the season. Fitzgerald/Garcon/Crabtree/Cooper all struggled through seasons with sub-par quarterback play and suffered for it. Wayne/Cruz were injured, Harvin/Patterson were much worse than expected and Allen had a sophomore slump that left him outside the starters rank but a roster-able piece. 

Preseason Hits: 64) Jarvis Landry (ADP:NR,Fin 42), 43) Doug Baldwin (ADP:61,Fin 41), 40) Greg Jennings (ADP:51, Fin 40), 67) Wes Welker (ADP:37, Fin 80)

Landry and Welker were picks in opposite directions for me, Landry being an upside play who was getting no pub and not being drafted who ended up being roster-able and Welker who was coming off a couple concussions and was getting older. Baldwin and Jennings were players being picked at least a round later who were solid contributors and just about every team and had better second halves than firsts.

QB Starters
1) Andrew Luck, IND: (8,8,8,31%)
2) Aaron Rodgers, GB: (2,2,2, 22%)
3) Peyton Manning, DEN: (3,3,3,16%)
4) Russell Wilson, SEA: (15,15,10,16%)
5) Drew Brees, NO: (1,1,1, 13%)
6) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: (17,18,17,12%)
7) Matt Ryan, ATL: (14,14,15,4%)
8) Eli Manning, NYG: (20,20,20,2%)
9) Ryan Tannehill, MIA: (25,26,24,2%)
10) Jay Cutler, CHI: (10,10,12,1%)

Preseason Misses: 4) Cam Newton (Fin 15) 5) Matthew Stafford (Fin 17) 6) Nick Foles (Fin 29) 7) Tom Brady (Fin 12) 9) Phillip Rivers (Fin 11)

Putting Rivers in here is just to adhere to my own rules as being off by two spots and one spot out of starting isn't really something to be disappointed in. Newton/Foles both missed starts and Newton spent the start of the year hampered by recent injuries. Stafford was extremely disappointing considering the addition of Tate to the roster. Brady was fine not good enough for seventh (4% above replacement).

Preseason Hits: 2) Aaron Rodgers (Fin 2), 3) Peyton Manning (Fin 3)

With 32 starters and a few replacements there wasn't much to hit on so, I highlighted my two QBs that I hit exactly on. Rodgers and Manning were both very good and Rodgers is starting to put some distance on Brady and Manning as the top fantasy QB.

Overall it was a pretty successful year, I scored two championships and a 3rd place finish in my four leagues this year. I ran correlations on each position to see how I did, -.382 for RBs, -.618 for WRs, -.664 for QBS and -.440 for TEs. The correlations are negative because the lower ranks are for the better players. I'm happy with these results and hope to have even better results next year. Thank you for reading. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.