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Thursday, October 29, 2015

2015 Rambling Sports Week 9 CFB Picks

Alright Week 9 is here and we’re two undefeated teams shorter with Utah and Florida State both biting the dust in conference play. That leaves us with 12 undefeated teams left and listed below. And once again the ones playing this week are bolded. No Tuesday or Wednesday games this week but plenty of funky Halloween action to come Thursday thru Saturday. This week looks a bit like last without the marquee matchups, but hopefully college football comes through for us like it usually does.
Undefeated: Temple (AAC), Houston (AAC), Memphis (AAC), Clemson (ACC), TCU (BXII), Baylor (BXII), Oklahoma State (BXII), Michigan State (B1G), Ohio State (B1G), Iowa (B1G), Toledo (MAC), LSU (SEC)

Thursday, October 29th, 2015
North Carolina at #23 Pittsburgh, 6:00 pm ESPN
West Virginia at #5 TCU, 6:30 pm FS1
A night of, underrated?, games. Especially the first one where North Carolina and Pitt are playing for a substantial advantage in the ACC Coastal. With three teams (Duke being the third) all undefeated and no one else with more than one win these games are of the utmost import. Pitt has enough offense to get to 20 and enough defense to hold UNC under and get to 5-0 in the conference, 20-17. A half hour later we get an offensive matchup, against a pair of injury depleted teams. I think Trevon Boykin and the Horned Frogs will be just too much and they pull away in the fourth 52-38.

Saturday, October 31st, 2015
USC at California, 2:00 pm FOX
#3 Clemson at NC State, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2
#11 Florida at Georgia, 2:30 pm CBS
#12 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech, 2:30 pm ESPN
Maryland at #10 Iowa, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2
The afternoon slate is interesting if unspectacular and includes three undefeated teams. This feature four games in which I think you have to put the ranked team on upset alert. The only matchup where the ranked team isn’t on upset alert is Iowa-Maryland, and… “Oh no, my eyes, my eyes.” Don’t watch that game, Iowa 28-10. So we’re not watching Iowa especially because USC-Cal is going to be fun especially with the extreme letdown factor for the Trojans on the road. Let’s call it 38-35 Cal and enjoy. If high flying acts aren’t your thing, let me tell you about the World’s Largest Cocktail Party or whatever bullshit they are calling it now. Florida comes in with one win looking to take full control of the SEC East. Georgia is looking to “build” off a 9-6 win over Vanderbilt in their last game. That being said this rivalry has produced a lot of stupid over the years and I can’t shake the feeling that 2015 is one of those years. Georgia 17-13. Alright, maybe that slowed things down a little too much for you, well Clemson-NC State is a classic look ahead trap game for the Clemson Tigers with a mantle stealing matchup against Florida State just on the other side of the horizon. NC State is led by Jacoby Brissett who has kind of dropped off the map this season, but he’s good enough to at least get the upset started. Give me Clemson, but by way too few, 31-28. Lastly, if you just have a Pac-12 prejudice and a southwestern drawl, then OK State-TTU is the game for you. There will be points, there will be weird decisions by QBs and there will be punts, but there will be little defense dictated action. OK State is probably overrated but I’m not sure a Tech team that plays a similar style is the one to exploit them. Let’s call it a Big XII shootout, 45-41.

Tulane at #16 Memphis, 6:00 pm CBSSN
Oregon State at #13 Utah, 6:00 pm Pac-12 Network
Vanderbilt at #18 Houston, 6:00 pm ESPN2
#15 Michigan at Minnesota, 6:00 pm ESPN
#9 Notre Dame at #21 Temple, 7:00 pm ABC
The evening slate features three undefeated teams as well, and in this case all three are AAC teams and two have matchups with Power Five teams. But first, Memphis gets Tulane and is going to romp, 31-10. Houston gets the not too tough, not a cakewalk matchup with a Vanderbilt team that scored touchdowns against Missouri and has a defense that has given even the best of offenses trouble. This one is gonna be a lot of fun if only to watch a Derek Mason defense verses a Tom Hermann offense. Houston takes it in the end, but it’s ugly, 24-10. Lastly, in the AAC, Temple hosts Notre Dame and College Gameday. This will be Temple’s first loss of the season, and there’s no shame in that. The problem is this team has a habit of starting slow and Notre Dame’s offense and defense are just too good to let them get away with that. Give Notre Dame to win, Temple to cover, 24-20. I’m sorry Oregon State, your gift this week is a pissed off Utah that wants to beat some ass and your Beavers are heading to them. Utah wins, 38-10. Lastly, we head to the saddest story of the week and the retirement of Jerry Kill. I was at Minnesota when he was hired and watched as the athletic department oversold who they could hire and ended up hiring the perfect man for the job, who was a profound disappointment to fans. I’m glad coach Kill will be able to focus on his health but he was greater teacher of men, and a damn fine football coach. Michigan 28-24.

#8 Stanford at Washington State, 9:30 pm ESPN
Lastly, this game is going to be batshit insane, you should stay up late and watch it. I have no idea what is going to happen in Pullman, Washington on Halloween night in a game involving two disparate styles and Mike “God Damn” Leach on the sideline. Washington State 41-38.


Enjoy Week 9. This is a boring week, so, chaos and we get to end it in Pullman.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Rambling's Week 9 Top 25s

Here we are with the week 8 Top 25s. And all I have to say is… YAY!!! Missouri is finally out of one of my rankings. The problem is it’s the less predictive rankings. Anything else you see let me know, but as always these are really just a place to start a conversation for the week. Enjoy, read, discuss, and cuss at me if you must.

Original                                                              Experimental

Rank
Team
Rating
LW Rank
Rank
Team
Rating
LW Rank
1
Ohio State
48.83
1
1
Ohio State
40.83
3
2
UCLA
44.49
2
2
Alabama
38.71
2
3
Alabama
43.67
3
3
UCLA
33.89
5
4
Notre Dame
37.13
4
4
Utah
32.7
4
5
Oregon
36.62
5
5
Notre Dame
28.1
6
6
Arizona State
35
6
6
LSU
27.75
10
7
Michigan State
34.95
9
7
TCU
27.32
6
8
Utah
34.66
7
8
Michigan State
27.06
9
9
TCU
34.05
8
9
Arizona State
25.93
7
10
LSU
33.84
10
10
USC
25.79
15
11
Mississippi
33.79
9
11
Baylor
25.48
11
12
USC
31.01
17
12
Oregon
24.75
8
13
Baylor
30.98
14
13
Stanford
23.58
13
14
Georgia
30.71
12
14
Georgia
23.24
14
15
Texas A&M
29.94
13
15
Mississippi
23.22
17
16
Missouri
29.16
15
16
Texas A&M
23.13
12
17
Boise State
27.6
18
17
Clemson
22.84
23
18
Arizona
27.56
16
18
Arizona
21.1
16
19
Florida State
26.36
19
19
Boise State
20.67
18
20
Stanford
26.3
20
20
Oklahoma
20.22
24
21
Wisconsin
24.09
23
21
Florida
19.71
20
22
California
23.88
21
22
Florida State
19.28
19
23
Clemson
23.79
24
23
Wisconsin
18.23
NR
24
Tennessee
23.05
22
24
Mississippi State
17.49
NR
25
Mississippi State
20.61
NR
25
California
17.08
21
Dropped Out
Dropped Out
26
North Carolina
20.54
25
27
Tennessee
15.42
25
28
Missouri
14.63
22

2015 Ramblings Week 9 Power Rank Predictions

A much better week all around this week 80% on winners, the spread was a bit trickier but happy overall. This week’s slate is interestingly set up with a bunch of Thursday and Friday games. There isn’t a huge amount of excitement but this is college football; there’s always something exciting.

Week
Overall
FBS
1
88.2% (75-10)
82.1% (32-7)
2
82.9% (63-13)
76.5% (39-12)
3
82.6% (57-12)
80.8% (42-10)
4
76.6% (45-14)
75% (39-13)
5
75% (45-15)
75.9% (44-14)
6
83.9% (47-9)
83.6% (46-9)
7
68.4% (39-18)
69.6% (39-17)
8
80.4% (45-11)
80% (44-11)
Season
80.3% (416-102)
77.8% (325-93)

(Thursday | Friday | Saturday)


Home
Away
H Rating
A Rating
HFA
My Spd
Time
TV
Pittsburgh
North Carolina
0.968
14.297
2.814
10.514
18:00
ESPN
Miami (OH)
Buffalo
-23.518
-17.605
1.767
-4.145
18:30
ESPN3
Georgia Southern
Texas State
-2.366
-23.318
2.508
23.460
18:30
ESPNU
Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan
-24.234
-8.173
0.709
15.352
18:30
-
TCU
West Virginia
16.700
0.983
3.688
19.405
18:30
FS1
Arizona State
Oregon
34.998
28.804
3.659
9.852
21:30
ESPN
Connecticut
East Carolina
-11.232
-3.076
2.483
-5.673
18:00
ESPNU
Wake Forest
Louisville
-23.349
-0.018
2.849
20.482
18:00
ESPN2
Rice
Louisiana Tech
-9.678
0.839
1.235
-9.282
19:00
FS1
Utah State
Wyoming
-9.697
-40.638
2.493
33.434
21:15
ESPN2
Navy
USF
-1.450
-9.294
3.316
11.160
11:00
CBSSN
Cincinnati
UCF
6.370
-15.601
2.810
24.782
11:00
ESPNN
Old Dominion
WKU
-20.507
-15.740
2.967
-1.800
11:00
-
Penn State
Illinois
0.009
10.274
5.213
-5.052
11:00
ESPN2
Wisconsin
Rutgers
9.009
6.419
4.730
7.320
11:00
BTN
Purdue
Nebraska
-9.142
6.754
2.712
13.184
11:00
ESPNU
Texas A&M
South Carolina
15.048
5.820
5.338
14.565
11:00
SECN
Auburn
Mississippi
23.895
28.335
4.934
0.494
11:00
ESPN
Florida State
Syracuse
24.822
-12.188
4.668
41.677
11:30
ESPN3
Boston College
Virginia Tech
-1.515
-3.333
2.739
4.557
11:30
ESPN3
Ball State
UMASS
-3.384
-15.546
1.152
13.313
12:00
ESPN3
Akron
Central Michigan
-11.237
-8.014
0.891
-2.332
13:00
ESPN3
Southern Miss
UTEP
-14.786
-24.703
2.011
11.928
13:30
FSN
UCLA
Colorado
34.488
12.203
4.101
26.386
14:00
P12N
Virginia
Georgia Tech
-8.643
29.036
2.799
34.880
14:00
ESPN3
California
USC
22.993
19.821
3.237
6.409
14:00
FOX
Appalachian State
Troy
10.881
-31.414
3.094
45.389
14:30
ESPN3
FAU
FIU
-12.958
-1.128
1.208
10.622
14:30
-
Colorado State
San Diego State
-1.548
-7.643
2.121
8.216
14:30
CBSSN
Iowa
Maryland
7.624
-1.285
4.305
13.214
14:30
ABC/ESPN2
Charlotte
Marshall
6.953
4.000
2.162
5.114
14:30
-
Kansas
Oklahoma
-16.115
5.902
2.636
19.380
14:30
FS1
Georgia
Florida
27.706
20.582
5.161
12.285
14:30
CBS
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State
-2.509
8.680
4.018
-7.170
14:30
ESPN
NC State
Clemson
13.376
19.601
3.822
-2.403
14:30
ABC/ESPN2
UNLV
Boise State
-36.492
29.335
1.196
64.631
14:30
ESPNU
SMU
Tulsa
-16.208
-19.083
1.933
4.809
15:00
ESPNN
Arkansas
Tennessee-Martin
28.907
-22.636
4.091
55.634
15:00
SECN
Louisiana
ULM
-4.023
-25.257
2.375
23.609
16:00
ESPN3
North Texas
UTSA
-22.601
-41.875
1.882
21.156
18:00
-
Arkansas State
Georgia State
3.869
-11.861
2.554
18.284
18:00
ESPN3
Memphis
Tulane
9.525
-8.662
1.950
20.137
18:00
CBSSN
Duke
Miami (FL)
12.095
-2.024
2.578
16.697
18:00
ESPNU
Iowa State
Texas
-0.338
-1.894
3.903
5.459
18:00
FS1
Utah
Oregon State
17.682
2.500
3.801
18.982
18:00
P12N
Houston
Vanderbilt
0.425
-4.996
2.127
7.548
18:00
ESPN2
Minnesota
Michigan
4.568
10.897
3.634
-2.695
18:00
ESPN
Kentucky
Tennessee
14.874
15.131
3.674
3.417
18:30
SECN
New Mexico State
Idaho
-19.271
-23.173
1.126
5.029
19:00
ESPN3
Temple
Notre Dame
-1.379
30.839
1.347
30.870
19:00
ABC
Hawaii
Air Force
1.005
11.927
2.044
-8.878
21:30
CBSSN
Washington State
Stanford
-11.634
12.218
3.062
20.790
21:30
ESPN
Washington
Arizona
-4.071
25.372
4.053
25.389
22:00
FS1