Let’s start our look
at RBs by discussing Ezekiel Elliot bringing sexy back to the backs. He may
have a bit, but this class would have been celebrated to matter what happened
last season, and none of the backs in this class are on his level. They are, however,
comparable at the top to Derrick Henry who in retrospect I was a touch low on.
Also, let’s address the Joe Mixon problem here. I don’t want him on my team,
but he went through the legal process, he had to sit out a year at Oklahoma, he
hasn’t delivered multiple fractures to another human being’s face in three
years, and he’s going to be drafted. I’m rating Mixon on talent/potential, so
I’ll put my “Fuck a Joe Mixon” here and move on with the RB ranks.
For my production
stat, I take into account yards per rush, workload (total rushes), yards per
target (receiving) and combine them to give me my production stats. For
athleticism component, the drills are ranked 1) 40-yard dash, 2) 10-yard split,
3) 3-Cone, 4) 20-yard short shuttle, T-5) Vert & Broad Jumps. The
athleticism is based on mass adjusted times to even out what is a pretty
diverse position group body type-wise.
1) Dalvin Cook, Jr,
Florida State, 5’ 10” 210 lbs –Starter (7.2)
Stats – Touches: 322, Yards per Rush: 6.13, Yards per Target:
10.47, 40: 4.49, 3-Cone: 7.27, Shuttle: 4.53
I’ve flipped,
switched debated with myself about how to rank the four top RBs this season and
I’ve come to the conclusion that I don’t see a whole lot of separation between
them value-wise. They all get the job done but in different ways. Cook was the
most productive of the bunch and he shows up constantly on tape. Cook had an
atrocious shuttle time and although that shows up in his game some I’d be more
concerned with his shoulder. I didn’t knock him for it because I have no idea
how it’s healed and how he is mentally, but you could see him shy away from it
throughout 2016 and that needs to change going forward for him to reach his
potential.
2) Christian
McCaffrey, Jr, Stanford, 5’ 11” 202 lbs –Starter (7.2)
Stats – Touches: 291, Yards per Rush: 6.31, Yards per Target: 6.48,
40: 4.48, 3-Cone: 6.57, Shuttle: 4.22
McCaffrey is a freak
in all the right ways, you can see the difference in the short area between him
& Cook in the 3-cone and shuttle times where he bested the junior from
Florida State by almost three quarters of a second in the 3-cone and a third of
a second in the shuttle. Lest you think like some that McCaffrey is a scat back
who will be just a passing game compliment in the NFL in the last two seasons,
McCaffrey had 20+ rushes 19 times and 30+ 7 times. He’s been a workhorse in a
power scheme throughout his career and I see no reason that should change at
the NFL level.
3) Joe Mixon, R. So,
Oklahoma, 6’ 0.75” 228 lbs –Starter (7.2)
Stats – Touches: 225, Yards per Rush: 6.78, Yards per Target: 12.23,
40: 4.45, 3-Cone: 7.10, Shuttle: 4.27
I’ve addressed
Mixon’s off the field issues at the top of this piece, but we need to talk
about the on field conundrum. He’s a freak as well, but unlike McCaffrey I
think he’s actually better as a pass catcher than a runner at this point.
That’s not to say he doesn’t have flashes when running the ball, but his
splashiest plays are out in space when he gets the ball through the air. Mixon
will need to grow as a subtle runner at the next level, but he’ll add a spark
to whichever offense he becomes a part of.
4) Leonard Fournette,
Jr, LSU, 6’ 0” 240 lbs –Starter (7.1)
Stats – Touches: 144, Yards per Rush: 6.53, Yards per Target: 6.64,
40: 4.51, 3-Cone: N/a, Shuttle: N/a
Fournette could end
up being the best back in this class but there are a few concerns I can’t just
dismiss. First, is his issue running from shotgun. Much like Adrian Peterson
you see a noticeable difference in his productivity when aligned next to the QB
in the backfield. Combine that with the continued prevalence of the shotgun at
the NFL level and you have a serious concern. There is also the issue with his
horizontal athleticism. He didn’t run the 3-cone or shuttle at the combine or
his pro day, but on film that short area change of direction just isn’t there.
I like Fournette and want to see him succeed but he wins in a way that is very
different from say Henry last season, and Fournette will be very dependent on
scheme especially early in his career in the NFL. That said 4.51 at 240 is
insane.
5) Kareem Hunt, Sr,
Toledo, 5’ 10” 216 lbs – Expected Starter (6.7)
Stats – Touches: 303, Yards per Rush: 5.63, Yards per Target: 9.16,
40: 4.60, 3-Cone: 7.22, Shuttle: 4.53
Hunt is my favorite
player in this draft which made his workout disappointing to me. He isn’t
dissimilar to Cook from an agility standpoint, but the biggest knock here is
straight-line speed. At 4.60 he’s fast enough, and on tape he looks much faster
while absolutely dominating MAC competition. He checks most boxes, and I may be
a bit too high but I love the way that Hunt plays.
6) Jeremy McNichols,
Jr, Boise State, 5’ 9” 214 lbs – Expected Starter (6.7)
Stats – Touches: 352, Yards per Rush: 5.44, Yards per Target:
11.40, 40: 4.49, 3-Cone: 6.93, Shuttle: 4.28
McNichols is a freak,
who was uber-productive at Boise State. He marks out well in all categories I
measure, but what drops him to six instead of fighting for the bottom of the
starters tier is the fact that on far too many plays McNichols goes to, what Matt
Waldman calls, the corner store. No matter the down, distance, or time of game
McNichols gambles on his athleticism and kicks it outside and far too often it
doesn’t work. In most games you can find repeated instances of this. In the
NFL, where there aren’t accountants or future media moguls (I’m sorry I know it’s
a cliché) on defense, it’s going to hamper his upside even more than it already
has. That said I don’t see why you wouldn’t bet on a freak with a relatively
big investment.
7) Aaron Jones, Jr, UTEP,
5’ 9” 208 lbs – Expected Starter (6.6)
Stats – Touches: 259, Yards per Rush: 7.68, Yards per Target: 6.66,
40: 4.56, 3-Cone: 6.82, Shuttle: 4.20
A stiff breeze could
probably blow Aaron Jones above both Hunt and McNichols. I first watched Jones
after I saw his productivity and athleticism scores and the first thing you
notice is that he isn’t just a workout warrior. He looks like the best athlete
on the field against both Texas and Arkansas and for a small school prosper
that’s a hell of a trick. He’s great in space, good hands out of the backfield,
understands good pad level, and can drag players between the tackles. He’s a
well-rounded back who at worst should be a spell back early in his career. The more
I think about him the more I start thinking there isn’t any separation between
him and the two players above him.
8) D’Onta Foreman,
Jr, Texas, 6’ 0” 233 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)
Stats – Touches: 330, Yards per Rush: 6.28, Yards per Target: 9.38,
40: 4.46, 3-Cone: 7.21, Shuttle: 4.29
D’Onta Foreman is an
enigma. He’s a large back with insane quickness in the feet, but he goes down
much easier than you’d want a man his size to do. Foreman’s a freak and that’s
worth an investment but I have questions about how effective he’s going to be
if he goes down like he’s 180 instead of 230.
9) Samaje Perine, Jr,
Oklahoma, 5’ 11” 233 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)
Stats – Touches: 206, Yards per Rush: 5.41, Yards per Target: 9.64,
40: 4.60, 3-Cone: 7.26, Shuttle: 4.37
10) Matt Brieda, Sr, Georgia
Southern, 5’ 9” 195 lbs – Expected Starter (6.3)
Stats – Touches: 179, Yards per Rush: 3.85, Yards per Target: 4.08,
40: 4.39, 3-Cone: 6.85, Shuttle: 4.34
Alright I’m going to
put the last two of my top ten together because they both fall into a similar
category for me. Perine was a freshman phenom that didn’t regain his former
glory while struggling through injuries the last couple of seasons. Brieda for
his part saw a drop of in 2016 as Georgia Southern completely reconfigured it’s
offense under a new coaching staff. Both worked out in a way that gives me hope
and both have the ability to be very dynamic pieces in a modern backfield. Perine
has the higher upside, was a high recruit for Oklahoma and has shown flashes of
both wiggle and power even through a lean season last season. Brieda was
really, really good for Georgia Southern and the times he posted as a bowling
ball of a back will make him a steal in the mid to late rounds of the draft.
The top of this group
wasn’t quite as deep as it could have been this year, but I have 12 backs with
ES grades and three more that were real close to cracking that threshold. Unlike
last season where there were only a couple backs that really excited me, I
could probably go at least 6 deep with players I’m really excited about and
probably more if we’re just talking upside. So, that finishes up my positional
primer on running backs. And I’ll put my top five FBs below this but I’m not
going to write them up because I’ll just be bullshitting you.
1)
Sam Rogers, Sr, Virginia Tech, 5’ 10” 231 lbs –
Starter (7.1)
2)
Chad Newell, Sr, Montana, 6’ 1” 215 lbs – Expected
Starter (6.2)
3)
Freddie Stevenson, Sr, FloridaSTate, 6’ 0” 234
lbs – Probable Starter (6.0)
4)
Algernon Brown, Sr, BYU, 6’ 1” 250 lbs –
Probable Starter (5.9)
5)
Lorenzo Long, Sr, Wofford, 5’ 8” 204 lbs –
Probable Starter (5.5)
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