2017 NFL Draft: Wide Receivers

The 2017 receiver class is weaker at the top than last year’s class was, but that doesn’t mean it’s a worse class than last year which probably had more top end talent but was a bit weak in the middle. There are 13 players that I think contribute relatively early and a couple handful more that have the upside to get there.

1)     Corey Davis, Sr, Western Michigan, 6’ 2 7/8” 209 lbs – Starter (7.4)

Stats – Targets: 138, Yards: 1500, Catch Rate: 70.29%, 40: N/a, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a

I’ve waffled on Davis because it’s tough to put a MAC receiver, with a lower body injury, who hasn’t done any athletic testing as your best receiver, and yet here we are. I’ve had him at 3 and 2 before I got to this point, but I’ve decided to trust what we saw on the field with Davis. What we saw on the field was a player who dominated in a special way against lower competition and was able to best the higher level competition when he got the chance. Davis will need to work on some concentration drops at the next level, but he’s great in space and that should help him at least compete to see the field early.

2)     John Ross, Jr, Washington, 5’ 10 3/8” 188 lbs – Starter (7.3)

Stats – Targets: 129, Yards: 1150, Catch Rate: 62.79%, 40: 4.22, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a

Ross sat on just his forty time as far as athletic testing is concerned and I can’t fault him after he ran the fastest recorded 40 time in combine history. Ross wins in the deep game but what might be most impressive is his work in the short areas, especially in the red zone. You routinely see Ross win in these scenarios with great footwork to play on the fears of defensive backs. What might keep Ross down on draft day is a trio of knee surgeries he’s already had, combined with shoulder surgery this off-season. If not for these known issues, I would probably have Ross in the 7.6-7.7 range. Ross is a more complete version of Will Fuller with a better route tree.

3)     Mike Williams, Jr, Clemson, 6’ 3 5/8” 218 lbs – Starter (7.1)

Stats – Targets: 129, Yards: 1267, Catch Rate: 69.77%, 40: 4.54, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a

Mike Williams was most people’s number one receiver heading into the season and for a good number of people he still is. I don’t know if they’re wrong but I have questions. As Sigmond Bloom from FootballGuys.com points out he’s the rare receiver who seems to be more confident with a DB draped on him than when he has created separation. Williams had a very good year after missing 2015 with a nasty neck injury. He doesn’t get separation as well as the two players ahead of him, and it will be interesting to see if that crops up as an issue when he’s trying to build report with a quarterback that hasn’t been with him for multiple seasons. Williams is a good receiver but much like a couple high profile running backs there is just something that leaves me wanting in his game.

4)     Taywan Taylor, Sr, WKU, 5’ 11” 203 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)

Stats – Targets: 144, Yards: 1730, Catch Rate: 68.06%, 40: 4.50, 3-Cone: 6.57, Short Shuttle: 4.21

Taywan Taylor is a player that I had to take a second look at after his athletic testing came in. The testing lead back to the tape and I watched it looking for different things. Taylor like Ross is a small guy who plays big. Taylor is great in contested situations and is pretty good in the open field. The problem when watching tape for Taylor & Zay Jones later is the way they are used at or around the line of scrimmage in their respective offenses which leads to type casting as slot receivers. Taylor’s a freak and performed like a freak on Saturdays and should be able to translate that to the NFL field.

5)     Carlos Henderson, Jr, Louisiana Tech, 5’ 11” 199 lbs – Expected Starter (6.9)

Stats – Targets: 132, Yards: 1535, Catch Rate: 62.12%, 40: 4.46, 3-Cone: 7.18, Short Shuttle: 4.35

As we look at Henderson and his numbers I want to take a minute and make a point about catch rate. I like it as a stat, but there’s a catch. A player can have a low catch rate and not have bad hands. Most times you see a player with a low catch rate and high yards per target it means he was used far more in the vertical passing game than the underneath. Henderson falls into this category with 11.63 yards per target, he’s athletic but not a freak. He’s good, but needs a bit of refining which keeps him out of the Starters tier.

6)     Curtis Samuel, Jr, Ohio State, 5’ 11” 196 lbs – Expected Starter (6.7)

Stats – Targets: 97, Yards: 865, Catch Rate: 62.12%, 40: 4.31, 3-Cone: 7.09, Short Shuttle: 4.33

First things first, Samuel also had 97 rushes for 771 yards (7.95 yards per rush). He was used in a dual role for Ohio State and you could convince me to put him at RB, but I think he’s a dynamic receiving threat. That said, I don’t understand how you’d be extremely high on Samuel and not on Henderson. He’s got a better 40 time, and that should be celebrated because 4.31 is extremely fast, but his agility scores aren’t appreciably better than Henderson. I think both are going to be incredibly useful at the next level. 

7)     Zay Jones, Sr, East Carolina, 6’ 2 1/8” 201 – Expected Starter (6.6)

Stats – Targets: 221, Yards: 1746, Catch Rate: 71.49%, 40: 4.45, 3-Cone: 6.79, Short Shuttle: 4.01

Zay Jones is Taywan Taylor but so much more of an enigma. Jones was used mostly within a couple yards of the line of scrimmage in a quick, timing based offense that never pushed the ball down field and based on that I had him in the 5.6-5.8 range. Then he went to the Senior Bowl and showed out, by performing well in the red zone areas and having an all-around impressive week at practice. He followed that up by smashing his combine. His forty is comparable to Henderson, and his agility drills best both Henderson & Samuel by a 3 tenths of a second. That’s a significant amount of time. All this is to say that Jones’ post-season results suggest that just because he wasn’t asked to play the big game/outside game at ECU doesn’t mean he can’t.

8)     Ryan Switzer, Sr, North Carolina, 5’ 8.5” 181 lbs – Expected Starter (6.6)

Stats – Targets: 128, Yards: 1112, Catch Rate: 75.00%, 40: 4.51, 3-Cone: 6.77, Short Shuttle: 4.00

Switzer is the best pure slot receiver in the class to me. Samuel is a hybrid and a weapon and something a little more valuable to me than just a slot. That said, just a slot is a valuable piece of the puzzle. If you need proof, look at the impact that Jamison Crowder produced for Washington and I think Switzer can be that kind of a rookie impact.

9)     Chris Godwin, Jr, Penn State, 6’ 1” 209 lbs – Expected Starter (6.4)

Stats – Targets: 99, Yards: 982, Catch Rate: 59.60%, 40: 4.42, 3-Cone: 7.01, Short Shuttle: 4.00

This is about the place where we find players that have more questions, not necessarily lower upsides but questions none-the-less. Godwin is a favorite of a good number of people and I get some of the hype, the speed and agility are there, but he’s inconsistent and had major ebbs and flows throughout the season.

10)  ArDarius Stewart, Jr, Alabama, 5’ 11” 204 lbs – Expected Starter (6.3)

Stats – Targets: 80, Yards: 828, Catch Rate: 67.50%, 40: 4.49, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a

Stewart is my last write up for the receivers and he’s an intriguing player. He was stuck in a Alabama offense that was played with leads a lot, became more wide open as the Kiffin era went on, but still found itself with a lot of leads and running situations. Stewart for his part has a well-rounded game and is able to win in the short area as well as the vertical game. He’ll need to show that the offense was the reason for his inconsistency and not his own reliability but ArDarius has the tools to be a big time weapon at the next level.

11)  Isaiah McKenzie, Jr, Georgia, 5’ 7” 173 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)

Stats – Targets: 64, Yards: 633, Catch Rate: 68.75%, 40: 4.42, 3-Cone: 6.64, Short Shuttle: 4.15

12)  JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jr, USC, 6’ 1 3/8” 215 lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)

Stats – Targets: 104, Yards: 917, Catch Rate: 67.31%, 40: 4.54, 3-Cone: 6.94, Short Shuttle: 4.13

13)  Trent Taylor, Sr, Louisiana Tech, 5’ 8” 181 lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)

Stats – Targets: 174, Yards: 1819, Catch Rate: 78.74%, 40: 4.63, 3-Cone: 6.74, Short Shuttle: 4.01

14)  Amba Etta-Tawo, Jr, Syracuse, 6’ 1” 208 lbs – Potential Starter (6.0)

Stats – Targets: 131, Yards: 1482, Catch Rate: 71.76%, 40: 4.47, 3-Cone: 6.95, Short Shuttle: 4.27

15)  Speedy Noil, Jr, Texas A&M, 5’ 11” 199 lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)

Stats – Targets: 48, Yards: 325, Catch Rate: 43.75%, 40: 4.45, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a

16)  Amara Darboh, Sr, Michigan, 6’ 2” 214 lbs – Potential Starter (6.0)

Stats – Targets: 101, Yards: 862, Catch Rate: 56.44%, 40: 4.45, 3-Cone: 6.81, Short Shuttle: 4.27

17)  Robert Davis, Sr, Georgia State, 6’ 3” 219 lbs – Potential Starter (5.8)

Stats – Targets: 122, Yards: 968, Catch Rate: 54.92%, 40: 4.44, 3-Cone: 6.82, Short Shuttle: 4.28

18)  DeAngelo Yancey, Sr, Purdue, 6’ 1 5/8” 220 lbs – Potential Starter (5.8)

Stats – Targets: 98, Yards: 951, Catch Rate: 50.00%, 40: 4.53, 3-Cone: 6.84, Short Shuttle: 4.27

19)  Chad Hansen, Jr, California, 6’ 2” 202 lbs – Potential Starter (5.7)

Stats – Targets: 147, Yards: 1249, Catch Rate: 62.59%, 40: 4.47, 3-Cone: 6.74, Short Shuttle: 4.13

20)  Cooper Kupp, Sr, Eastern Washington, 6’ 1 5/8” 204 lbs – Potential Starter (5.7)

Stats – Targets: 193, Yards: 1700, Catch Rate: 60.68%, 40: 4.61, 3-Cone: 6.53, Short Shuttle: 4.08

As for the rest of them it’s a good group with McKenzie/Noil being freaky athletes who didn’t quite have the production last season. Smith-Shuster has the recruiting pedigree, Kupp/Taylor have the insane production at a lower level of competition with testing that raises questions, Etta-Tawo/Darboh are big receivers with intriguing measurable and questions about production (for Etta-Tawo it’s an scheme thing), for Davis/Hansen I didn’t completely get it when I watched them, and with Yancey he’s farther down because I know that the history for receivers who didn’t get Combine invites is pretty dismal and, although I like him, I have to temper expectations.

So those are my thoughts on the top 20 wide receivers it’s a good group with limited upside and intrigue throughout. You’re going to be able to find some specific types of players later in the draft that are useful for team building and that has its own worth.