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Wednesday, February 28, 2018

2018 NFL Draft: Defensive Production Primer


Unlike on offense, the defensive players are less well known, and the effects of athleticism on their impact at the next level are much easier to quantify, but that doesn’t mean that production isn’t a useful place to start. I find that it gives me a good place to start in identifying productive mid-rounders and players that will surprise at the combine. So yes production is a good place to start, but athleticism numbers are a significant portion of the final grade.

If you’re a first timer to my draft stuff I break from seven players into three groups: interior, edge, and off ball linebackers (OBLB). Interior players play inside, or heads up, of the tackles on the defensive line. Edge players are 3-4 OLBs and 4-3 DEs, so pass rushers in both schemes. OBLBs are interior 3-4 linebackers or 4-3 linebackers who line up off the line of scrimmage and have more responsibilities away from the line of scrimmage.

Interior Linemen

For both sets of linemen athletic testing is a huge key. Yes, players that were productive have a shot at the next level, but there are things you can do in college purely through technique and scheme that won’t transfer over to the next level very well where everyone is a freak.

Player | Class | School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Tackles | Tackles for Loss | Sacks | Pass Breakups | Forced Fumbles | Production Score

Highest Producers
Aikeem Coleman | Sr | Idaho (MWC) | 6’3”, 275 lbs
47 Tkls | 14 TFLs | 7 Sacks | 1 PBU | 3 FF | 220
Harrison Phillips | Sr | Stanford (P12) | 6’ 3”, 303 lbs
69.5 Tkls | 16.5 TFLs | 7 Sacks | 0 PBU | 2 FF | 218
Rasheem Green | Jr | USC (P12) | 6’ 4”, 275 lbs
31 Tkls | 12.5 TFLs | 10 Sacks | 4 PBU | 1 FF | 209
Duke Ejiofor | Sr | Wake Forest (ACC) | 6’ 4”, 275 lbs
34.5 Tkls | 16.5 TFLs | 7 Sacks | 1 PBU | 2 FF | 200
Tee Sims | Sr | App State (SBC) | 6’ 3”, 265 lbs
31.5 Tkls | 13.5 TFLs | 9.5 Sacks | 0 PBU | 1 FF | 191
Dante Sawyer | Sr | South Carolina (SEC) | 6’ 3”, 275 lbs
24.5 Tkls | 5 TFLs | 3 Sacks | 5 PBU | 5 FF | 185
P.J. Hall | Sr | Sam Houston St (FCS) | 6’ 0”, 308 lbs
60 Tkls | 19 TFLs | 6 Sacks | 6 PBU | 1 FF | 175
JoJo Wicker | Jr | Arizona State (P12) | 6’ 3”, 273 lbs
36 Tkls | 13 TFLs | 7 Sacks | 1 PBU | 1 FF | 172
Tyquan Lewis | Sr | Ohio State (B1G) | 6’ 3”, 276 lbs
32 Tkls | 13 TFLs | 7 Sacks | 2 PBU | 2 FF | 169
Bruce Hector | Sr | USF (AAC) | 6’ 2”, 296 lbs
32 Tkls | 13 TFLs | 7 Sacks | 1 PBU | 1 FF | 169
Jamal Stadom | Sr | Troy (SBC) | 6’ 2”, 280 lbs
22 Tkls | 11.5 TFLs | 7 Sacks | 1 PBU | 1 FF | 168
Maurice Hurst | Sr | Michigan (B1G) | 6’ 2”, 280 lbs
42.5 Tkls | 13.5 TFLs | 5 Sacks | 2 PBU | 1 FF | 161
Dalton Keene | Sr | Illinois State (FCS) | 6’ 3”, 282 lbs
45 Tkls | 13 TFLs | 8 Sacks | 6 PBU | 1 FF | 156
Breeland Speaks | Jr | Ole Miss (SEC) | 6’ 3”, 285 lbs
47 Tkls | 8 TFLs | 7 Sacks | 1 PBU | 1 FF | 154
RJ McIntosh | Jr | Miami (FL) (ACC) | 6’ 4”, 293 lbs
38.5 Tkls | 12.5 TFLs | 2.5 Sacks | 7 PBU | 1 FF | 152

Here’s what I’ll say about this group; You notice players during the season infrequently outside of your Donalds or Suhs. I know Phillips, Ejiofor, and Hurst are all names I know or have seen before. Coleman, Sims, Hall, Hector, Stadom, and Keene are all players from small or FCS schools that will drop some but are names to at least give a look. The rest are productive P5 teams that will almost certainly be useful players but require athletic testing and further study to place them in the class. I know this isn’t the most satisfying write-up so far, but I don’t want to lie or bullshit my way through any of these articles, which are meant to be a jumping off point statistically.

Edge Players

I will sound like a broken record, but, where as interior players need athletic profiles to round out their rankings, for edge players it’s a huge part. That said these guys are more likely than their interior counterparts to get noticed by novices like me while flipping around on Saturdays.

Player | Class | School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Tackles | Tackles for Loss | Sacks | Pass Breakups | Forced Fumbles | Production Score

Highest Producers
Uchenna Nwosu | Sr | USC (P12) | 6’ 2”, 245 lbs
61 Tkls | 11.5 TFLs | 9.5 Sacks | 13 PBU | 0 FF | 261
 Joe Ostman | Sr | Central Michigan (MAC) | 6’ 3”, 259 lbs
54.5 Tkls | 20.5 TFLs | 14 Sacks | 0 PBU | 4 FF | 242
Anthony Winbush | Sr | Ball State (MAC) | 6’ 1”, 240 lbs
39.5 Tkls | 16.5 TFLs | 11.5 Sacks | 0 PBU | 5 FF | 241
Bradley Chubb | Sr | NC State (ACC) | 6’ 4”, 275 lbs
56.5 Tkls | 25 TFLs | 10 Sacks | 2 PBU | 3 FF | 238
Marcus Davenport | Sr | UTSA (CUSA) | 6’ 6”, 259 lbs
44 Tkls | 17 TFLs | 8.5 Sacks | 4 PBU | 3 FF | 222
Ja’Von Rolland-Jones | Sr | Arkansas State (SBC) | 6’ 2”, 244 lbs
42.5 Tkls | 19 TFLs | 13 Sacks | 1 PBU | 4 FF | 214
Jeff Holland | Jr | Auburn (SEC) | 6’ 2”, 249 lbs
36 Tkls | 13 TFLs | 10 Sacks | 1 PBU | 4 FF | 207
Ogbonnia Okoronikwo | Sr | Oklahoma (BXII) | 6’ 1”, 243 lbs
61.5 Tkls | 17.5 TFLs | 8 Sacks | 2 PBU | 3 FF | 206
Shaquem Griffin | Sr | UCF (AAC) | 6’ 0”, 223 lbs
59 Tkls | 13.5 TFLs | 7 Sacks | 3 PBU | 2 FF | 205
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi | Jr | Toledo (MAC) | 6’ 2”, 248 lbs
50 Tkls | 20 TFLs | 8.5 Sacks | 1 PBU | 3 FF | 203
Dalton Herrington | Sr | New Mexico State (SBC) | 6’ 2”, 230 lbs
97.5 Tkls | 16 TFLs | 6.5 Sacks | 6 PBU | 0 FF | 201
Richard Jarvis | Sr | Brown (FCS) | 6’ 2”, 236 lbs
69 Tkls | 14 TFLs | 9 Sacks | 1 PBU | 6 FF | 197
Anthony Ellis | Sr | Charleston Southern (FCS) | 6’ 0”, 245 lbs
52 Tkls | 16 TFLs | 9 Sacks | 1 PBU | 3 FF | 193
Mat Boesen | Sr | TCU (BXII) | 6’ 4”, 240 lbs
52 Tkls | 15 TFLs | 11.5 Sacks | 0 PBU | 3 FF | 187
Leon Jacobs | Sr | Wisconsin (B1G) | 6’ 2”, 245 lbs
47.5 Tkls | 9.5 TFLs | 3.5 Sacks | 3 PBU | 1 FF | 182

Let’s start with Ostman, Winbush, Rolland-Jones, Adeniyi, Herrington, Jarvis, and Ellis. They’re all small school guys I don’t know much about. Now at the top Nwosu gets a huge bump because of the breakup numbers, they’re double just about everybody else and if you halved them he’d slot in right behind Jarvis. Chubb is the best edge player in the draft and should only be aided by his athletic testing. Davenport went into Senior Bowl week a hot commodity, but the former Roadrunner lost a little shine with a lackluster practice week but showed up big in the game. Will be an interesting case study at the Combine. Okoronikwo and Griffin will definitely get looks at off the ball linebacker spots due to size but should get looks here if only because of positional value. Holland and Boesen are P5 guys I need to do more research on. A special note on Jacobs, it took me 5 minutes to remember who he was, and I watch most Wisconsin games. That said, I think he fits better as a bowling ball at ILB than as a pass rusher.

Linemen to Know

I combined linemen in players to know for two reasons: one, depth of knowledge especially on the interior, and because of the relative interchangeability in current line rotations.

Vita Vea | Jr | INT | Washington (P12) | 6’ 5”, 340 lbs
37.5 Tkls | 5.5 TFLs | 3.5 Sacks | 4 PBU | 0 FF | 97
Poona Ford | Sr | INT | Texas (BXII) | 6’ 0”, 306 lbs
28 Tkls | 8 TFLs | 1.5 Sacks | 1 PBU | 1 FF | 89
Taven Bryan | Jr | INT | Florida (SEC) | 6’ 4”, 291 lbs
29.5 Tkls | 6 TFLs | 4 Sacks | 0 PBU | 0 FF | 82
Da’Shawn Hand | Sr | INT | Alabama (SEC) | 6’ 4”, 282 lbs
18 Tkls | 3.5 TFLs | 3 Sacks | 1 PBU | 0 FF | 59
Hercules Mata’afa | Jr | Edge | Washington State (P12) | 6’ 2”, 252 lbs
38 Tkls | 22.5 TFLs | 10.5 Sacks | 0 PBU | 2 FF | 180
Marquis Haynes | Sr | Edge | Ole Miss (SEC) | 6’ 3”, 233 lbs
36 Tkls | 11 TFLs | 7.5 Sacks | 0 PBU | 3 FF | 154
Rashaan Evans | Sr | Edge | Alabama (SEC) | 6’ 3”, 234 lbs
54.5 Tkls | 13 TFLs | 6 Sacks | 3 PBU | 1 FF | 139
Sam Hubbard | Jr | Edge | Ohio State (B1G) | 6’ 5”, 265 lbs
34.5 Tkls | 13.5 TFLs | 7 Sacks | 0 PBU | 2 FF | 134
 Lorenzo Carter | Sr | Edge | Georgia (SEC) | 6’ 6”, 243 lbs
45.5 Tkls | 7.5 TFLs | 4.5 Sacks | 0 PBU | 3 FF | 133
Kemoko Turay | Sr | Edge | Rutgers (B1G) | 6’ 4”, 252 lbs
46.5 Tkls | 7 TFLs | 4 Sacks | 1 PBU | 1 FF | 88
Jalyn Holmes | Sr | Edge | Ohio State (B1G) | 6’ 5”, 279 lbs
23 Tkls | 3 | TFLs | 2 Sacks | 3 PBU | 1 FF | 81
Harold Landry | Sr | Edge | Boston College (ACC) | 6’ 3”, 250 lbs
30.5 Tkls | 10.5 TFLs | 8.5 Sacks | 0 PBU | 0 FF | 77

Vea and Ford are 1 or 0 techs (players that play over or shaded to one side of the center). The stats won’t pop, but film and athleticism will be key for both. Bryan should stand out in the pre-draft rounds, but a rough season in Gainesville leave something to be desired. Da’Shawn Hand missed three games but showed all you need to know about him in the National Championship Game. As for the edge guys, well Hercules Mata’afa is going to rise up boards and will be a favorite for both myself and draft twitter. Watch a couple minutes of his tape from Washington State and you’ll see what makes him so exciting. Haynes is a slight edge player but showed flashes in his four seasons in Oxford. Evans is a bit of a tweener and may be better suited for LB but six sacks means he gets a look at edge first. Hubbard was really good at Ohio State as a redshirt sophomore and many, including myself, thought it would have been reasonable for him to come out last season. Carter was another of the group that flashed in the playoffs/championship game, but at 6’6” agility drills will be important for the Georgia product. Turay has had injury issues throughout college, but he shows that upside and bend to be a good pass rusher at the next level. Medicals and testing will be key, but this a kind of (he’s been pointed out by others) sleeper to watch at edge. Holmes’ production dipped after an injury that knocked him out of the Nebraska game, but he’s a talent and should shine in the pre-draft process like he did against Wisconsin in the B1G championship and against USC in the Cotton Bowl. Last is Harold Landry. Statistically Landry was a disappointment in 2017, but he battled through an ankle injury for most of the season and put up killer tape in 2016. As long his testing is fine, I wouldn’t have any qualms about drafting him highly based on a presumption of return to his 2016 form.

I think edge is pretty deep this season, but interior play is going to be harder to find after a couple of guys towards the top.

Off Ball Linebackers (OBLB)

As we said above this group includes all inside/middle linebackers and outside 4-3 backers. Unlike linemen who are explosion players who need to convert mass and acceleration into force, linebackers need to flow horizontally and attack vertically. What makes evaluation here tricky is that a slightly lesser athlete with superior comprehension and instincts can be a superior player to the superior athlete.

Player | Class | School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Tackles | Tackles for Loss | Sacks | Interceptions | Pass Breakups | Forced Fumbles | Production Score

Highest Producers
Leighton Vander Esch | Jr | Boise State (MWC) | 6’ 4”, 240 lbs
116 Tkls | 8.5 TFLs | 4 Sacks | 3 Int | 4 PBU | 4 FF | 285
Frank Ginda | Jr | San Jose State (MWC) | 6’ 0”, 245 lbs
133.5 Tkls | 13 TFLs | 2 Sacks | 0 Int | 3 PBU | 3 FF | 208
Chad Moore | Sr | Ohio (MAC) | 6’ 0”, 222 lbs
59 Tkls | 6.5 TFLs | 1 Sacks | 3 Int | 4 PBU | 2 FF | 194
James Hearns | Sr | Louisville (ACC) | 6’ 3”, 249 lbs
35.5 Tkls | 13.5 TFLs | 7 Sacks | 0 Int | 3 PBU | 4 FF | 192
Richard Jarvis | Sr | Brown (FCS) | 6’ 2”, 236 lbs
69 Tkls | 14 TFLs | 8 Sacks | 0 Int | 1 PBU | 6 FF | 189
Al-Rasheed Benton | Sr | West Virginia (BXII) | 6’ 1”, 238 lbs
94 Tkls | 13.5 TFLs | 3 Sacks | 2 Int | 4 PBU | 1 FF | 189
Quentin Poling | Sr | Ohio (MAC) | 6’0”, 235 lbs
78 Tkls | 12.5 TFLs | 5.5 Sacks | 0 Int | 4 PBU | 3 FF | 189
Jayd Kirby | Sr | Kansas State (BXII) | 6’ 2”, 222 lbs
87.5 Tkls | 11.5 TFLs | 4 Sacks | 0 Int | 4 PBU | 3 FF | 188
Tremaine Edmunds | Jr | Virginia Tech (ACC) | 6’ 5”, 250 lbs
84.5 Tkls | 14 TFLs | 3.5 Sacks | 0 Int | 2 PBU | 3 FF | 182
Jermaine Carter Jr | Sr | Maryland (B1G) | 6’ 0”, 228 lbs
70.5 Tkls | 6 TFLs | 3.5 Sacks | 0 Int | 3 PBU | 4 FF | 181
Eric Boggs | Sr | Appalachian State (SBC) | 6’ 3”, 236 lbs
77.5 Tkls | 9 TFLs | 4.5 Sacks | 2 Int | 6 PBU | 1 FF | 180
Genard Avery | Sr | Memphis (AAC) | 6’ 1”, 255 lbs
66 Tkls | 22 TFLs | 8.5 Sacks | 0 Int | 2 PBU | 2 FF | 179
Grant Ross | Sr | Air Force (MWC) | 6’ 1”, 225 lbs
69.5 Tkls | 9.5 TFLs | 1 Sacks | 0 Int | 1 PBU | 4 FF | 177
Josey Jewell | Sr | Iowa (B1G) | 6’ 2”, 236 lbs
101.5 Tkls | 13.5 TFLs | 4.5 Sacks | 2 Int | 1 PBU | 1 FF | 176
D’Juan Hines | Sr | Houston (AAC) | 6’ 1”, 230 lbs
83.5 Tkls | 6.5 TFLs | 0 Sacks | 1 INT | 1 PBU | 3 FF | 169

Vander Esch is the real deal and a legitimately good prospect out of Boise State. Tremaine Edmunds is a freak and is going to show out big time at the combine. And Josey Jewell was everywhere for Iowa. After that I don’t have a solid grasp on these players, but that’s kind of the point of all of this.

Players to Know
Roquan Smith | Jr | Georgia (SEC) | 6’ 1”, 225 lbs
111 Tkls | 14 TFLs | 6.5 Sacks | 0 Int | 2 PBU | 1 FF | 147
Skai Moore | Sr | South Carolina (SEC) | 6’ 2”, 218 lbs
77.5 Tkls | 8 TFLs | 2 Sacks | 3 Int | 2 PBU | 0 FF | 145
Jack Cichy | Jr | Wisconsin (B1G) | 6’ 2”, 233 lbs
52.5 Tkls | 7 TFLs | 1.5 Sacks | 0 Int | 2 PBU | 2 FF | 116

Short list of players to watch here, mostly because I don’t know a lot of off ball linebackers by name. That said Roquan Smith is a very athletic, very instinctive backer that is going to blow up the combine and has the tape to back up a top pick. Skai Moore has had poor luck over the last couple of seasons when it comes to staying healthy but the way he stood out in his last full season means I’m going to give him a chance to show he’s 100% back. Cichy was injured this season as well before it really got started. Cichy burst onto the scene against USC with back to back to back sacks in their bowl game. Cichy will be a day two pick, but if healthy will be a major contributor for someone.
I’ll add Rashaan Evans and Shquem Griffin as they’re tweener types between Edge and OBLB.

Shaquem Griffin | Sr | UCF (AAC) | 6’ 0”, 223 lbs
59 Tkls | 13.5 TFLs | 7 Sacks | 1 Int | 3 PBU | 2 FF | 174
Rashaan Evans | Sr | Alabama (SEC) | 6’ 3”, 234 lbs
54.5 Tkls | 13 TFLs | 6 Sacks | 0 Int | 3 PBU | 1 FF | 121

Cornerback

Cornerback is a tough one for production because most offenses shy away from the best corners on a given team. That said stats in general are a good place to identify players with instincts who may end up productive later in the draft. Oh, one other thing, pre-combine I have a lot of players that end up in all three DB categories on my sheet so I will try to put players in just one category.

Player | Class | School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Tackles | Tackles for Loss | Interceptions | Pass Breakups | Forced Fumbles | Production Score

Highest Producers
Josh Jackson | Jr | Iowa (B1G) | 6’ 1”, 192 lbs
41 Tkls | .5 TFLs | 8 Int | 18 PBU | 1 FF | 491
DeShon Elliott | Jr | Texas (BXII) | 6’ 2”, 210 lbs
56.5 Tkls | 8.5 TFLs | 6 Int | 9 PBU | 3 FF | 420
Jalen Davis | Sr | Utah State (MWC) | 5’ 10”, 185 lbs
28.5 Tkls | 5 TFLs | 5 Int | 15 PBU | 1 FF | 388
Darious Williams | Sr | UAB (CUSA) | 5’ 10”, 180 lbs
44 Tkls | 4 TFLs | 5 Int | 15 PBU | 0 FF | 348
Bradd Ellis | Sr | Ohio (MAC) | 5’ 10”, 177 lbs
49.5 Tkls | 2 TFLs | 2 Int | 19 PBU | 1 FF | 311
Parry Nickerson | Sr | Tulane (AAC) | 6’ 0”, 180 lbs
51.5 Tkls | 2 TFLs | 2 Int | 8 PBU | 0 FF | 302
Avonte Maddox | Sr | Pittsburgh (ACC) | 5’9”, 180 lbs
23.5 Tkls | 4 TFLs | 2 Int | 11 PBU | 3 FF | 294
Josh Cox | Sr | Central Michigan (MAC) | 5’ 11”, 191 lbs
71 Tkls | 2.5 TFLs | 6 Int | 4 PBU | 1 FF | 293
Levi Wallace | Sr | Alabama (SEC) | 6’ 0”, 176 lbs
39.5 Tkls | 4.5 TFLs | 3 Int | 15 PBU | 0 FF | 290
Trumaine Washington | Sr | Louisville (ACC) | 5’ 10”, 181 lbs
37 Tkls | 1 TFLs | 4 Int | 10 PBU | 1 FF | 280

So what I said above doesn’t really apply here, both Jackson and Elliott are very good players from P5 teams that get the job done and should pan out well at the next level. Levi Wallace was overshadowed by Minkah Fitzpatrick in Tuscaloosa but a good player in his own right. Outside of that I don’t know specifics on the rest, so it’ll be interesting to see how much the combine shakes all of this up.

Going to combine the DBs to know like I did for linemen earlier because of ambiguity between position groups for me at the moment.

Safeties

I combine safeties here because so many teams list all, or most, of their DBs as DBs. As I keep getting data, and watching players the groups will become better defined, but for now we’ll combine them.

Player | Class | School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Tackles | Tackles for Loss | Sacks | Interceptions | Pass Breakups | Forced Fumbles | Production Score

Highest Producers
Jeremy Reaves | Sr | S | South Alabama (SBC) | 5’ 11”, 204 lbs
87 Tkls | 7 TFLs | 1.5 Sacks | 3 Int | 8 PBU | 3 FF | 327
Kyle Queiro | Sr | S | Northwestern (B1G) | 6’3”, 220 lbs
46 Tkls | 5.5 TFLs | 0 Sacks | 5 Int | 9 PBU | 1 FF | 321
Josh Cox | Sr | DB | Central Michigan (MAC) | 5’ 11”, 197 lbs
71 Tkls | 2.5 TFLs | 0 Sacks | 6 Int | 4 PBU | 1 FF | 301
Armanti Watts | Sr | DB | Texas A&M (SEC) | 5’ 11”, 191 lbs
72 Tkls | 10 TFLs | .5 Sacks | 4 Int | 5 PBU | 2 FF | 300
Justin Reid | Jr | SS | Stanford (P12) | 6’ 1”, 204 lbs
75.5 Tkls | 6.5 TFLs | 1 Sacks | 5 Int | 6 PBU | 0 FF | 273
Jonathan Cook | Sr | DB | Memphis (AAC) | 6’ 0”, 198 lbs
70.5 Tkls | 5 TFLs | 0 Sacks | 2 Int | 13 PBU | 1 FF | 272

Reid broke into the top 5 of the SS list, but otherwise these were the top players in the slightly different production stats that I use for FS and SS. Watts is admittedly the only player that I can remember watching over the last couple of seasons. He broke out as a sophomore but missed time in 2016. He was consistent with a handful of interceptions each season, and at least 50 tackles each of his four years in College Station.

Players to Know
Duke Dawson | Sr | DB | Florida (SEC) | 5’ 11”, 195 lbs
28.5 Tkls | 2 TFLs | 0 Sacks | 4 Int | 9 PBU | 0 FF | 241
Denzel Ward | Jr | CB | Ohio State (B1G) | 5’ 10”, 191 lbs
33.5 Tkls | 2 TFLs | 2 Int | 15 PBU | 0 FF | 239
Derrick Tindal | Sr | CB | Wisconsin (B1G) | 5’ 11”, 181 lbs
23.5 Tkls | 1 TFL | 2 Int | 10 PBU | 2 FF | 232
Nick Nelson | Jr | CB | Wisconsin (B1G) | 5’ 11”, 208 lbs
30.5 Tkls | 1 TFLs | 0 Int | 21 PBU | 0 FF | 232
Derwin James | RSo | DB | Florida State (ACC) | 6’ 3”, 215 lbs
66.5 Tkls | 5.5 TFLs | 1 Sack | 2 Int | 11 PBU | 0 FF | 221/231
Kevin Tolliver II | Jr | CB | LSU (SEC) | 6’ 3”, 204 lbs
21.5 Tkls | 2 TFLs | 1 Int | 10 PBU | 2 FF | 206
Minkah Fitzpatrick | Jr | DB | Alabama (SEC) | 6’ 1”, 202 lbs
49 Tkls | 8 TFLs | 1.5 Sacks | 1 Int | 8 PBU | 1 FF | 189/198
Ronnie Harrison | Jr | DB | Alabama (SEC) | 6’3”, 214
58.5 Tkls | 4.5 TFLs | 2.5 Sacks | 3 Int | 4 PBU | 0 FF | 183/194
Carlton Davis | Jr | CB | Auburn (SEC) | 6’ 1”, 203 lbs
31.5 Tkls | .5 TFLs | 1 Int | 11 PBU | 1 FF | 188
Donte Jackson | Jr | CB | LSU (SEC) | 5’ 11”, 175 lbs
40.5 Tkls | 3.5 TFLs | 1 Int | 10 PBU | 0 FF | 164
M.J. Stewart | Sr | CB | UNC (ACC) | 5’ 11”, 198 lbs
39 Tkls | 5 TFLs | 0 Int | 12 PBU | 0 FF | 161

Alabama (Fitzpatrick/Harrison), Wisconsin (Tindal/Nelson), and LSU (Tolliver II/Jackson) all have two players on this list. Fitzptarick, Nelson, and Tolliver II are the tops of their respective pairs, with Harrison/Jackson next and Tindal at the bottom of that six. Jackson for his part is angling to run fast in Indy with a series of tweets at Adidas shouting his claim to speed throne. Ward is right up towards the top of my prospective board alongside Fitzpatrick, Dawson is a solid prospect from Florida. Derwin James might be the best DB of the bunch when all said and done, but he’s coming off a season in which he didn’t seem to move past, past injuries, until the end of the season when he seemed to regain All-American form. Davis and Stewart were very good on P5 squads and should be day 2 prospects at worst.

So there we are, a much less definitive preview than my offensive one, but it’s a good placed to start and we’ve at least taken note of around 90 different defensive players as we look to Indy for greater insight and data.

2018 NFL Draft: Offensive Production Primer

Combine weigh-ins started today and I'm not yet done with defensive primer but I thought I should get this out today with line and running back workouts coming on Friday. I’m still not completely sure how I’m going to approach it this year, but I am hoping to watch more tape to pair with, what I think are, better production statistics as jumping off point. What I hope to do here is highlight the draft eligible players that topped my production charts before we get too deep into the draft season. And I’ll try my best to note any players outside of the top producers that I know of and think are worth noting (this will almost certainly get muddled).

Quarterbacks
Always a great place to start because it is the premier position in football. Everyone who has a good one won’t let him go, everyone who lacks a competent one is desperate to find one. Now as a reminder these are just production based numbers, and while generally find these to be the best set of production numbers I’ve used, QB is incredibly difficult to grade well based on statistics.

(Player | Class | School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Attempts | Adj. Yards/Attempt | Completion% | Sack% | Production Rating)

Highest Producers
Baker Mayfield | Sr | Oklahoma (BXII) | 6’ 2”, 216 lbs
404 Att | 12.84 AY/A | 70.54% | 6.00% | 7.84
Mason Rudolph | Sr | Oklahoma State (BXII) | 6’ 5”, 230 lbs
489 Att | 10.66 AY/A | 65.03% | 4.50% | 6.249
Riley Ferguson | Sr | Memphis (AAC) | 6’ 4”, 210 lbs
474 Att | 9.67 AY/A | 63.08% | 4.20% | 5.564
Logan Woodside | Sr | Toledo (MAC) | 6’ 2”, 210 lbs
411 Att | 9.88 AY/A | 64.23% | 5.10% | 5.491
John Wolford | Sr | Wake Forest (ACC) | 6’ 1”, 200 lbs
374 Att | 9.31 AY/A | 63.90% | 3.90% | 5.413

Alright, so of the top five Mayfield is the only one really in the first round conversation, and for good reason. Mayfield is what we all talked ourselves into with Johnny Manziel. His Big XII compatriot Mason Rudolph falls second and that’s not surprising as adjusted yards per attempt is the highest component of my new production rate. I’ve started watching some Rudolph, and accuracy is concerning so far, but his receivers make any throw catchable. Ferguson has made the post-Lynch/Fuente era much easier, but much like Rudolph he’s aided by a very good pair of receivers. I’m going to be honest with you, I don’t know much about Logan Woodside and even less about John Wolford. So, they will definitely be worth a watch here as we move closer and closer to the Combine, pro days, and the draft.

Names to Know
Josh Rosen | Jr | UCLA (P12) | 6’ 4”, 220 lbs
452 Att | 8.42 AY/A | 62.61% | 5.40% | 4.581
Lamar Jackson | Jr | Louisville (ACC) | 6’ 3”, 211 lbs
430 Att | 8.68 AY/A | 59.07% | 6.30% | 4.866
Sam Darnold | R.So | USC (P12) | 6’ 4”, 220 lbs
480 Att | 8.46 AY/A | 63.13% | 5.70% | 4.880
Mike White | Sr | WKU (AAC) | 6’ 4”, 221 lbs
560 Att | 7.71 AY/A | 65.71% | 7.40% | 4.689
Josh Allen | Wyoming (MWC) | 6’ 5”, 237 lbs
270 Att | 6.85 AY/A | 56.30% | 7.50% | 3.441

So, at this moment, I have another five players that I currently know enough about to say they’re notable. They are in the order I currently see them, with White and Allen tied. Let’s start with the elephant in every discussion, Josh Allen. I see everything that big fans of Allen see: big arm, athleticism, flash throws. What I don’t see, and what separates him from, say, Mahomes is the consistency and play against high level competition. Over the past 2 seasons he’s played 3 power five opponents, Boise State twice, and a San Diego State team twice in 2016 with legitimate NFL secondary talent. In those 7 games he went 126 for 247 (51.01%), for 6.66 yards per attempt, and 13 TDs and 15 INTs. The upside is there, but we know that players rarely get more accurate at the next level which leaves me seeing a player worth a shot in rounds 2 or 3, not the top of the first. Alright, back to the top of my names to know. Rosen is my QB1 right now, he’s the best over the middle of the field, he’s intelligent, and he’s willing to fit the ball into tight spaces. Jackson and Darnold are going to be tough to separate as I see it now, but Jackson get’s the slight lead because I like his feet better in the pocket and the fact that he has gotten better each of the last three seasons both statistically and as a player. Darnold isn’t a bad player, and he does a great job of throwing outside the pocket, but his feet are currently a mess in the pocket and showed more inconsistency year two than year one. Mike White showed out at the senior bowl, and played very well despite a challenging season at WKU, he’s the high floor, big bodied, but limited mirror to Allen.
So that’s a nice primer to QBs in this year’s draft and a lot of study, thought, and yelling left in the draft process.

Running Back
We’re in the middle of a RB renaissance, but it’s a two-tiered renaissance. The first is an influx of feature backs such as Gurley, Elliott, and the handful from 2017, who are soon to be joined with Barkley in this draft. Then there’s the influx of backs who are perfectly set up to be one half of a tandem or specialty backs. These come in two types generally, the big backs who can catch and the speed backs that can catch. I jest, but tandem backfields do seem to be shifting prioritizing receiving ability for both, think New Orleans who found that perfect mix with Ingram and Kamara last season. As for production, well RB is much easier to rate by production than QB, you just need yards per rush, yards per target, adjust those to value touchdowns and factor in work load, tinker and you got a fair enough value for a running back. Note: if you want to get lost in a rabbit hole of nerdery click the hyperlink for Adj. Yards/Rush and follow the rabbit hole on what the value of a touchdown is.

(Player | Class | School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Touches | Adj. Yards/Rush | Adj. Yards/Target |Production Rating)

Highest Producers
Rashaad Penny | Sr | San Diego State (MWC) | 5’ 11”, 224 lbs
308 Touches | 9.24 AY/Ru | 6.68 AY/Tar | 16.82
Ronald Jones II | Jr | USC (P12) | 6’ 0”, 200 lbs
275 Touches | 7.28 AY/Ru | 12.14 AY/Tar | 15.29
Squon Barkeley | Jr | Penn State (B1G) | 5’ 11”, 230 lbs
271 Touches | 7.38 AY/Ru | 9.84 AY/Tar | 14.24
Royce Freeman | Sr | Oregon (P12) | 6’ 0”, 238 lbs
258 Touches | 7.25 AY/Ru | 9.65 AY/Tar | 13.50
Kerryon Johnson | Jr | Auburn (SEC) | 6’ 0”, 212 lbs
309 Touches | 6.04 AY/Ru | 8.95 AY/Tar | 13.27
Dontrell Hilliard | Sr | Tulane (AAC) | 6’ 0”, 205 lbs
218 Touches | 6.25 AY/Ru | 15.36 AY/Tar | 13.05
Phillip Lindsay | Sr | Colorado (P12) | 5’ 8”, 190 lbs
326 Touches | 5.71 AY/Ru | 8.13 AY/Tar | 12.90
Ito Smith | Sr | Southern Miss (CUSA) | 5’ 9”, 201 lbs
288 Touches | 6.66 AY/Ru | 7.62 AY/Tar | 12.85
Terry Swanson | Sr | Toledo (MAC) | 5’ 10”, 205 lbs
263 Touches | 6.67 AY/Ru | 8.43 AY/Tar | 12.40
Dalyn Dawkins | Sr | Colorado State (MWC) | 5’ 9”, 185
252 Touches | 6.84 AY/Ru | 8.44 AY/Tar | 12.25

Unlike QBs the running back production list correlates a lot better to what my final rankings will look like. San Diego State has had a very nice run of RBs lately, with Rashaad Penny being the latest and possible better suited player to the NFL than his record setting predecessor. Ronald Jones II is a playmaker from USC who put up competitive numbers on the ground, but thrashed the competition at the top of the production list with a little over 12 yards per target. Third, is the do everything back from Penn State, Saquon Barkley. I’m not sure he’s quite to Elliott/Gurley level of prospect, but he’s a very good prospect with multi-faceted talent. Oregon’s Royce Freeman is a relative unknown to most casual fans but he’s a big bodied exciting back from Oregon. Kerryon Johnson was great at times before succumbing to shoulder and rib injuries down the stretch for Auburn. To skip a player for a moment, Phillip Lindsay has been a consistent producer for Colorado through their up-tick and was a workhorse back as a senior. Dontrell Hilliard is, in a statistical sense, the Aaron Jones of this list. In so far, as he is a small school prospect that I don’t know much about, but will definitely be an early study to round out my knowledge. Hilliard’s status as 2018 Aaron Jones will be tested by the rest of the top 10 as Ito Smith, Terry Swanson, and Dalyn Dawkins all have statistical profile that wholeheartedly require deeper research.

Names to Know
Akrum Wadley | Sr | Iowa (B1G) | 5’ 10”, 188 lbs
281 Touches | 5.13 AY/Ru | 11.11 AY/Tar | 12.11
Sony Michel | Sr | Georgia (SEC) | 5’ 11”, 215 lbs
165 Touches | 9.75 AY/Ru | 7.69 AY/Tar | 11.82
Derrius Guice | Jr | LSU (SEC) | 5’ 11” 218 lbs
255 Touches | 6.13 AY/Ru | 7.39 AY/Tar | 11.00
Nick Chubb | Sr | Georgia (SEC) | 5’ 10”, 225 lbs
227 Touches | 7.27 AY/Ru | 6.00 AY/Tar | 10.94
Larry Rose III | Sr | New Mexico State (SBC) | 5’ 11”, 195 lbs
242 Touches | 6.06 AY/Ru | 7.58 AY/Tar | 10.58
Justin Jackson | Sr | Northwestern (B1G) | 5’ 11”, 200 lbs
331 Touches | 5.27 AY/Ru | 4.68 AY/Tar | 10.58
Mark Walton | Jr | Miami (FL) (ACC) | 5’ 9”, 205 lbs
63 Touches | 8.63 AY/Ru | 8.27 AY/Tar | 6.81
Bo Scarbrough | Jr | Alabama (SEC) | 6’ 2”, 235 lbs
141 Touches | 5.99 AY/Ru | 4.95 AY/Tar | 6.69
Kalen Ballage | Sr | Arizona State (P12) | 6’2”, 222 lbs
177 Touches | 4.96 AY/Ru | 2.84 AY/Tar | 5.93

Wadley will most likely not be a day 1 or 2 pick, but he was productive at Iowa and a better athlete than his college’s stigma may let on. Michel/Guice/Chubb are big SEC backs. Michel is the twitchiest of the bunch, Chubb hasn’t fully regained form from a knee injury two years ago, but looked better as the season went along, and Guice has injury concerns but was Michel to Fournette’s Chubb when healthy at LSU. That brings us to this year’s Matt Breida, or, the small school prospect I love who faded a bit because of injury but is probably going to sneak into my top 10-15. Justin Jackson is a solid if unspectacular workhorse out of Northwestern, who is going to stick on a roster for a decade and never be the bell cow, but always be your fans favorite running back. Mark Walton is going to fly up this list as I watch tape and we get combine numbers. He’s the only back to average over 8 yards per touch in this post. Bo Scarbrough is a bit of a question mark to me. He has the recruiting pedigree and was productive at Alabama, but when watching you always felt like he wasn’t processing the game correctly, which left him unable to use all the physical tools he so clearly has. All you need to know about Kalen Ballage is that he had a game last season (against Texas Tech) in which he had 13 rushes, 137 yards, 7 TDs and 2 receptions, 48 yards, and a receiving TD. If nothing else, it’s amazing footnote and was one of the most insane performances I’ve ever personally watched.
There’s your RB primer, and it’s not going to be as good as last year up top, but it’s another exceptionally deep and talented class.

Wide Receiver
Receiver is kind of the middle ground between RBs and QBs statistically. We have a good amount of information, and we can use it to make pretty good assumptions, but there is a small gulf between intuitive analysis and the numbers. That doesn’t mean that the number aren’t useful, but I’ve yet to find the perfect balance between slanting to far towards high target numbers and large adjusted yards per target scores. That said this is a primer, and we’ll be able to sort out more with film and combine numbers.

(Player | Class | School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Targets | Adj. Yards/Target | Catch% |Production Rating)

Highest Producers
James Washington| Sr | Oklahoma State (BXII) | 5’ 11”, 210 lbs
117 Tar | 15.34 AY/Tar | 63.25% | 23.22
Anthony Miller | Sr | Memphis (AAC) | 5’ 11”, 190 lbs
148 Tar | 12.23 AY/Tar | 64.86% | 21.79
Keke Coutee | Jr | Texas Tech (BXII) | 5’ 11”, 180 lbs
121 Tar | 13.40 AY/Tar | 76.86% | 20.76
Tre’Quan Smith | Jr | UCF (AAC) | 6’ 2”, 202 lbs
86 Tar | 16.53 AY/Tar | 68.60% | 20.59
Cedrick Wilson | Sr | Boise State (MWC) | 6’ 1”, 194 lbs
136 Tar | 12.25 AY/Tar | 61.03% | 20.56
Jordan Lasley | Jr | UCLA (P12) | 6’ 3”, 210 lbs
108 Tar | 13.31 AY/Tar | 63.89% | 19.11
Marcell Ateman | Sr | Oklahoma State (BXII) | 6’ 4”, 216 lbs
87 Tar | 15.06 AY/Tar | 67.82% | 18.89
Michael Gallup | Sr | Colorado State (MWC) | 6’ 1”, 198 lbs
167 Tar | 9.27 AY/Tar | 59.88% | 18.05
J’Mon Moore | Sr | Missouri (SEC) | 6’ 3”, 209 lbs
96 Tar | 13.28 AY/Tar | 67.71% | 17.69
Trey Quinn | Jr | SMU (AAC) | 6’ 0”, 202 lbs
155 Tar | 9.59 AY/Tar | 73.55% | 17.68
Korey Robertson | Jr | Southern Miss (CUSA) | 6’ 2”, 210 lbs
118 Tar | 11.45 AY/Tar | 65.25% | 17.44
Steve Ishmael | Sr | Sryacuse (AAC) | 6’ 2”, 209 lbs
167 Tar | 8.87 AY/Tar | 62.87% | 17.28
Ka’Raun Whtie | Sr | WVU (BXII) | 6’ 1”, 199 lbs
105 Tar | 11.84 AY/Tar | 59.05% | 16.70
Courtland Sutton | Jr | SMU (AAC) | 6’ 4”, 216 lbs
129 Tar | 10.21 AY/Tar | 52.71% | 16.51
Jaleel Scott | Sr | New Mexico St. (SBC) | 6’ 5”, 216 lbs
117 Tar | 10.71 AY/Tar | 64.96% | 16.21

15 deep for our statistical primer and it’s a nice mix of know/unknown. In the top 15 are the Oklahoma State duo of James Washington and Marcel Ateman who’ll spark what I suspect is a lot of debate over whom will be the better pro. Memphis standout Anthony Miller is at the top with Washington, and gained a bunch of name recognition in the UCLA game. Keke Coutee isn’t a name I knew, but a cursory look at some highlights showed a player who was quick in space and legitimately fast. I look forward to watching his tape. Jordan Lasley saw his opportunity to leave with Rosen and not suffer the drop of from what will almost certainly be a top five QB. The rest of the top 9 (because I read this wrong before writing and didn’t want to re-do the whole paragraph) were Senior Bowl receivers. Smith balled out in practice and the game, Wilson is a very productive deep threat from Boise State, Michael Gallup was explosive, if a bit inconsistent, at Colorado State, and J’Mon Moore was a big part of the explosion of offense at Missouri. Of the rest of the fifteen, Ishmael and Sutton, are the only ones I’ve heard of, and both will be fascinating studies. Ishmael was good in Dino Babers’ air raid at Syracuse but wasn’t overly explosive. Sutton for his part was explosive, but he disappeared at times after being, nearly, the consensus WR1 before the year started. I don’t really have much knowledge when it comes to the other players that round out the top 15; there’s, Trey Quinn aka the other SMU wideout, Kore Robertson from Southern Miss, Kevin White’s brother Ka’Raun from WVU, and Senior Bowler Jaleel Scott from New Mexico State. So there’s a number of unknown to take a look at on film and watch out for athletic numbers.

Names To Know
Deontay Burnett | Jr | USC (P12) | 6’ 0”, 170 lbs
131 Tar | 9.83 AY/Tar | 65.65% | 16.07
DaeSean Hamilton | SR | Penn State (B1G) | 6’ 1”, 202 lbs
82 Tar | 12.83 AY/Tar | 64.63% | 15.53
Darren Carrington II | Sr | Utah (P12) | 6’ 3”, 205 lbs
101 Tar | 10.95 AY/Tar | 70.30% | 15.06
D.J. Chark | Sr | LSU (SEC) | 6’ 3”, 196 lbs
68 Tar | 13.70 AY/Tar | 58.82% | 14.93
DJ Moore | Jr | Maryland (B1G) | 5’ 11”, 215 lbs
130 Tar | 9.13 AY/Tar | 61.54% | 14.86
Steven Dunbar | Sr | Houston (AAC) | 6’ 3”, 202 lbs
112 Tar | 10.07 AY/Tar | 67.86% | 14.81
Cam Phillips | Sr | Virginia Tech (ACC) | 6’ 0”, 202 lbs
107 Tar | 10.27 AY/Tar | 66.36% | 14.66
Calvin Ridley | Jr | Alabama (SEC) | 6’ 1”, 190 lbs
99 Tar | 10.74 AY/Tar | 63.64% | 14.59
Christian Kirk | Jr | Texas A&M (SEC) | 5’ 11”, 200 lbs
113 Tar | 9.84 AY/Tar | 62.83% | 14.56
Allen Lazard | Sr | Iowa State (BXII) | 6’ 4”, 227 lbs
130 Tar | 8.72 AY/Tar | 54.62% | 14.19
Linell Bonner | Sr | Houston (AAC) | 6’ 0”, 200 lbs
101 Tar | 9.87 AY/Tar | 79.21% | 13.57
Simmie Cobbs Jr | Jr | Indiana (B1G) | 6’ 4”, 220 lbs
123 Tar | 8.09 AY/Tar | 58.54% | 12.67
Auden Tate | Jr | Florida State (ACC) | 6’ 5”, 225 lbs
63 Tar | 11.76 AY/Tar | 63.49% | 12.30
Dante Pettis | Sr | Washington (P12) | 6’ 1”, 195 lbs
99 Tar | 8.91 AY/Tar | 63.64% | 12.10
Antonio Callaway | Jr | Florida (SEC) | 5’ 10”, 193 lbs
85 Tar | 9.16 AY/Tar | 63.53% | 11.33
Equanimeous St. Brown | Jr | Notre Dame (IND) | 6’ 5”, 203 lbs
74 Yar | 8.00 AY/Tar | 44.59% | 9.13
Matt VandeBerg | Sr | Iowa (B1G) | 6’ 1”, 195 lbs
56 Tar | 7.55 AY/Tar | 50.00% | 7.44

As for the names to know, DaeSean Hamilton balled out at the Senior Bowl, and was explosive at Penn State. Deontay Burnett is an undersized, but very productive USC product. Carrington was excellent at Oregon but was dismissed after a DUI incident last off-season. Chark was explosive in an LSU passing game that was lacking. DJ Moore is a darling of the draft community from Maryland, and he was targeted often (130 times), and is shifty in space. Simmie Cobbs Jr, shares Moore’s Big Ten pedigree and absolutely balled out in tight spaces against Ohio State early in the year. Dunbar was seriously good the last two seasons at Houston, Phillips probably could’ve and should’ve come out last year with his QB but was still wonderful in Fuente’s offense, and Lazard is a big, tall receiver who has been underutilized by poor QB play at Iowa State. Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk are SEC products from underwhelming passing games who will move up with film and combine numbers. I don’t know much about Bonner, but those numbers are intriguing from Houston if nothing else. Lastly, we have the quintet of P5 receivers (Tate, Pettis, Callawy, St. Brown, and Vandeberg) that fall into the Michael Thomas (Ohio State) territory of P5 receivers I like that have a relatively small number of targets.

It’s a solid class up top, there are some bright spots, but it’s looking like another class of solid WR1s/very good WR2s.

Tight End
This is a position that, much like running back, has two very different types of player prototypes. That said, in the current game, blocking is of less value than a player who can dynamically change a game catching passes. This is another pretty good class at the top. It’s not as deep as last year’s top flight of players, but it would be ridiculous to hold any class in recent years up to that one.

(Player | Class | School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Targets | Adj. Yards/Target | Catch% |Production Rating)

Highest Producers
Mark Andrews | Jr | Oklahoma (BXII) | 6’ 5”, 254 lbs
89 Tar | 12.68 AY/Tar | 70.79% | 28.12
Dallas Goedert | Sr | South Dakota State (FCS) | 6’ 5”, 260 lbs
129 Tar | 9.66 AY/Tar | 55.81% | 22.48
Deon Yelder | Sr | WKU (CUSA) | 6’ 3”, 251 lbs
69 Tar | 11.93 AY/Tar | 75.36% | 21.18
Andy Brenneman | Sr | UMASS (IND) | 6’ 5”, 255 lbs
92 Tar | 9.14 AY/Tar | 69.57% | 20.89
Blake Mack | Sr | Arkansas State (SBC) | 6’ 3”, 229 lbs
65 Tar | 11.59 AY/Tar | 73.85% | 19.55

Andrews and Goedert are legitimately good prospects and both are big/able to block. Yelder/Brenneman/Mack are small school FBS prospects that I don’t know much about because they play tight end and I don’t usually pay attention that closely to TEs when watching G5 games.

Names to Know
Mike Gesicki | Sr | Penn State (B1G) | 6’ 5”, 242 lbs
76 Tar | 9.69 AY/Tar | 75.00% | 18.71
Jaylen Samuels | Sr | NC State (ACC) | 6’ 0”, 223 lbs
98 Tar | 6.88 AY/Tar | 77.55% | 16.63
Jordan Akins | Sr | UCF (AAC) | 6’ 3”, 246 lbs
47 Tar | 12.60 AY/Tar | 68.09% | 16.24
Troy Fumagalli | Sr | Wisconsin (B1G) | 6’ 5”, 247 lbs
73 Tar | 8.55 AY/Tar | 63.01% | 15.94

Gesicki and Fumagalli are Big Ten prospects that were productive through the air and inline, much like Andrews. Samuels is an interesting study, and a player who legitimately played three roles in the NC State offense. He’s as close to a pure H-Back prospect as we’ve had and that relative lack of position is fascinating. Akins was explosive for a very good UCF offense and, although I’ve heard of him, I don’t know much about him, but those numbers were too intriguing to ignore.
We’ll talk more about TEs in a much more solid tone going forward, but there is some intrigue here, and for draft purposes that’s a good thing.

So there we go, we’ve gotten through production and players to watch for each of the position groups that have actionable production numbers. Obviously, the offensive line will have to wait for film and combine/pro day numbers. The QBs are argument worthy, the RBs are deep once again, the WRs are a solid group and the TEs are interesting. So not a bad year all around on the offensive side of the ball.