2018 Fantasy Football: 2nd RB Ranks

RB Rankings

Elite Tier
Player	Rank	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Pos. Diff.	1stRk	Rank Diff.	1stADP
David Johnson	1	ARI	1	4	4	-3	2	-1	4
Le'Veon Bell	2	PIT	1	2	2	0	1	1	3
Todd Gurley	3	LAR	1	1	1	2	3	0	1

I think I’m pretty set on these three being the elite tier and will just rearrange them as we go along.

Not Elite, But, Like, Not Average Either Tier
Player	Rank	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Pos. Diff.	1stRk	Rank Diff.	1stADP
Ezekiel Elliott	4	DAL	2	3	3	1	5	-1	2
Alvin Kamara	5	NO	2	6	5	0	4	1	6
Saquon Barkley	6	NYG	2	8	6	0	7	-1	8
LeSean McCoy	7	BUF	2	42	21	-14	6	1	19
Melvin Gordon	8	LAC	2	12	9	-1	8	0	11
Dalvin Cook	9	MIN	2	14	10	-1	12	-3	15
Kareem Hunt	10	KC	2	9	7	3	9	1	10
Leonard Fournette	11	JAC	2	10	8	3	13	-2	9

Nothing major to see here from rank to rank here, but I’m considerably different on McCoy than the norm right now. To that thought I get it and I’ll probably move him down around Freeman and Howard, but McCoy is going to see a large work load and shouldn’t drop too far from RB1.

Oh My God, Why Do You Hate (RBs Name Here) Tier
Player	Rank	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Pos. Diff.	1stRk	Rank Diff.	1stADP
Jordan Howard	12	CHI	3	21	12	0	15	-3	22
Devonta Freeman	13	ATL	3	17	11	2	10	3	18
Christian McCaffrey	14	CAR	3	24	14	0	14	0	24
Jerick McKinnon	15	SF	3	22	13	2	11	4	15
Joe Mixon	16	CIN	3	27	15	1	19	-3	28
Derrius Guice	17	WAS	3	37	19	-2	22	-5	42
Lamar Miller	18	HOU	3	49	23	-5	18	0	52
Tevin Coleman	19	ATL	3	67	29	-10	16	3	65
Alex Collins	20	BAL	3	34	17	3	24	-4	37
Rex Burkhead	21	NE	3	83	35	-14	20	1	93

Guice moves five spots because I like him a bit more than the Jones II/Drake tier and 17-21 are pretty interchangeable. As far as big differences between me and ADP well I have Coleman as a low RB2 compared to a mid RB3 for ADP, and Rex Burkhead a little over a full tier higher as a low RB2 compared to a low RB3. Starting with Coleman, I don’t see any reason that offense can’t provide us with two backs in the RB2 or higher again this year. There’s going to be variance but what back this late provides Coleman’s upside. I think Burkhead is the lead back in New England this year, not because I think Michel is bad, but because I think Burkhead is the best all around back at the moment and for the season.

Solid RB 1s and Tandem Backfields Tier
Player	Rank	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Pos. Diff.	1stRk	Rank Diff.	1stADP
Ronald Jones II	22	TB	4	51	25	-3	21	1	51
Kenyan Drake	23	MIA	4	35	18	5	31	-8	34
Marshawn Lynch	24	OAK	4	69	30	-6	28	-4	69
Carlos Hyde	25	CLE	4	74	31	-6	33	-8	68
Dion Lewis	26	TEN	4	62	28	-2	17	9	63
Derrick Henry	27	TEN	4	32	16	11	30	-3	32
C.J. Anderson	28	CAR	4	92	38	-10	23	5	102
Kerryon Johnson	29	DET	4	78	33	-4	70	-41	81
Royce Freeman	30	DEN	4	57	26	4	42	-12	62
Duke Johnson	31	CLE	4	103	40	-9	25	6	104
Marlon Mack	32	IND	4	76	32	0	35	7	73
Jay Ajayi	33	PHI	4	40	20	13	36	7	39
Mark Ingram	34	NO	4	50	24	10	27	7	49

Let’s start with the two differences between my previous ranks and this one, Kerryon Johnson and Royce Freeman. Johnson is currently behind at least Abdullah and Riddick on the depth chart and so I ranked him accordingly. I think Johnson ends up being the starter, hence the jump 41 spots. I still think Freeman will end up being the RB 1 for the Broncos, and he’s currently the RB 2 therefore this is only a jump of 12 spots. As far as differences from ADP, well four players were at least 10 spots off. Let’s start with a compare contrast with Henry and Anderson. Henry was going to assume the full role in the Titans offense with Murray gone, but the F.O. had other plans and brought in Lewis whom I think splits the backfield pretty much 50-50 over the year. This split hurts both players values, but Henry much more when compared to ADP. Anderson on the other hand goes from the lead back in Denver to in the shadow of Christian McCaffrey. That said McCaffrey isn’t going from 117 rushes to 359 (his rushes + Stewart’s workload) with Jonathan Stewart gone. Let’s say that McCaffrey increases his rushing workload by 50% that puts him at 175 rushes and still leaves 190ish rushes for and we’ll say 40 targets and you’ve got a productive fantasy running back, i.e. C.J. Anderson. At the bottom of tier four we have similar backs in my mind with different situations who end up in similar spots overall. Jay Ajayi has had an interesting, and frustrating, career. Never really handed the full-time job in Miami, he was traded mid-year to the Eagles who, even without Blount, still has a number of options in the backfield. I just think Corey Coleman, Darren Sproles, and one of Smallwood or Pumphrey takes snaps away from Ajayi. He’s still useful and I can see moving him back up the RB3 ranks but probably a ceiling of low RB2. Ingram is dealing with the four-game suspension and when he comes back will have to deal with whatever Kamara’s adjusted role is, and potentially with whomever has taken up residence as the de facto RB 2 in his absence. I’ll take others whose role is more set over Ingram but understand why the RB2 ADP is there and he’ll probably be at least that when he comes back, but the NFL is a funny game and Ingram isn’t the young stud he once was.

Low End RB 1s, High End RB 2s, and Players I’m Not Sure On Tier
Player	Rank	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Pos. Diff.	1stRk	Rank Diff.	1stADP
Isaiah Crowell	35	NYJ	5	85	36	-1	32	3	82
Sony Michel	36	NE	5	60	27	9	65	-29	57
Gio Bernard	37	CIN	5	129	48	-11	38	-1	129
Chris Thompson	38	WAS	5	96	39	-1	26	12	95
Chris Carson	39	SEA	5	131	49	-10	43	-4	143
Rashaad Penny	40	SEA	5	43	22	18	46	-6	48
Theo Riddick	41	DET	5	152	56	-15	34	7	144
Aaron Jones	42	GB	5	108	42	0	29	13	98
Jamaal Williams	43	GB	5	81	34	8	62	-19	78
Tarik Cohen	44	CHI	5	88	37	7	37	7	89
James White	45	NE	5	148	53	-8	51	-6	140
Jordan Wilkins	46	IND	5	187	62	-16	50	-4	217
Spencer Ware	47	KC	5	200	66	-19	47	0	218
Devantae Booker	48	DEN	5	117	44	4	41	7	115
Bilal Powell	49	NYJ	5	149	54	-5	39	10	131
Frank Gore	50	MIA	5	183	60	-10	40	10	167
Matt Breida	51	SF	5	142	52	-1	57	-6	157

Now that we’re into the RB4s let’s increase the size of the differences we’re looking at and make it at least a full round between me and ADP and a round and a half (18 spots) in the rank difference. Let’s start with Michel. I addressed this rank a little bit when discussing Burkhead, but it boils down to the fact I think he’s the 2^nd best back on the team right now. If you think they should be swapped it’s pretty simple, put Michel where Burkhead is and vice-a-versa. Then there’s the convergence of the Packers backs. I like Jones more, but he’s suspended two games and McCarthy has shown a propensity to both split the backfield and favor the hot hand. On a side note, this is infuriating both as a fantasy player and a Packers fan. So, for now I found a middle ground between Williams and Jones and would probably draft Montgomery as the cheapest of the three. As far as ADP differences well, we have four players from this tier. I’m not a Penny believer, especially on Seattle, when they have a fair facsimile in the form of Chris Carson who’s already shown himself effective. I will probably begrudgingly rise him up the ranks back into the RB3 range, but for this ranking I’ll go with my heart. Riddick seems to be undervalued this year, by about a half a tier or so. I’m on the high side with him at 41, maybe he should be closer to the mid-40s, but he’s still going to see snaps on passing downs and is still the best receiver of the RBs in Detroit. Lastly, in this tier are a pair of players that most probably see as RB 3s on their depth charts. Those players are Jordan Wilkins and Spencer Ware. They have different challenges ahead of them. For Wilkins it’s the fact he’s a rookie, although on the plus side his competition is a second-year player and another rookie. I just think Wilkins is the most well-rounded back on the roster. Ware is underrated not just in fantasy, but in terms of the amount of talent he has. Ware would have been the starter in KC last season if he didn’t hurt his knee and at worst is the second-best back on the team and based on Andy Reid’s teams of the past Hunt isn’t likely to have the same workload as he had as a rookie.

RB 2s and RB 3s With Upside Tier
Player	Rank	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Pos. Diff.	1stRk	Rank Diff.	1stADP
Kenneth Dixon	52	BAL	6	174	58	-6	44	8	196
Javorius Allen	53	BAL	6	191	64	-11	52	1	186
Nick Chubb	54	CLE	6	104	41	13	59	-5	101
Charles Sims	55	TB	6	304	83	-28	64	-9	304
Ty Montgomery	56	GB	6	118	45	11	63	-7	133
Corey Clement	57	PHI	6	128	47	10	58	-1	130
Nyheim Hines	58	IND	6	127	46	12	53	5	146
Rod Smith	59	DAL	6	273	80	-21	54	5	279
Austin Ekeler	60	LAC	6	175	59	1	48	12	164
Chris Ivory	61	BUF	6	162	57	4	60	1	245

I dropped Ekeler a dozen spots because I like Justin Jackson better as a player, and Jackson is currently RB 2 on the depth chart. That said, this is a fun camp battle to watch especially early in the pre-season. There are two ADP differences to not here with Sims currently not being drafted in the top 83 backs and Rod Smith going as RB 80. Both are RB 2s on their respective rosters, both have smaller backs to contend with (Rodgers and Austin respectively), and both have shown the ability to hold their own when the starter goes down. I mean I have both as RB5s but that doesn’t mean I think they should go as low-end RB7s.

Second and Third Stringers With Attitude Tier
Player	Rank	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Pos. Diff.	1stRk	Rank Diff.	1stADP
D'Onta Foreman	62	HOU	7	113	43	19	49	13	108
Elijah McGuire	63	NYJ	7	216	68	-5	94	-31	213
Latavius Murray	64	MIN	7	151	55	9	55	9	145
C.J. Prosise	65	SEA	7	249	76	-11	69	-4	255
Corey Grant	66	JAC	7	304	83	-17	81	-15	304
Chase Edmonds	67	ARI	7	248	75	-8	66	1	302
Darren Sproles	68	PHI	7	233	73	-5	114	-46	267
Tyler Ervin	69	HOU	7	304	83	-14	96	-27	304
Doug Martin	70	OAK	7	132	50	20	67	3	137
Jonathan Stewart	71	NYG	7	219	69	2	56	15	219
De'Angelo Henderson	72	DEN	7	229	71	1	80	-8	241
LeGarrette Blount	73	DET	7	135	51	22	72	1	126
T.J. Yeldon	74	JAC	7	196	65	9	61	13	193
John Kelly	75	LAR	7	232	72	3	71	4	262
Joe Williams	76	SF	7	304	83	-7	84	-8	304
Benny Cunningham	77	CHI	7	304	83	-6	100	-23	304
Charcandrick West	78	KC	7	304	83	-5	75	3	304
Wayne Gallman	79	NYG	7	271	79	0	85	-6	236
Samaje Perine	80	WAS	7	205	67	13	103	-23	182

Sproles seems like he’s going to be a thing, Ervin seems like he should be the receiving back and the RB 3 in Houston, Cunningham isn’t going to lose all his receptions from last year, and Perine well, who knows on Perine but he’s not untalented and Washington will need a backup behind Guice. I’ll address Foreman who, if healthy, will be much higher than this if he’s healthy this year. Big IF. Doug Martin wasn’t good last year in TB and is behind Lynch and dealing with multiple younger players on the depth chart. I might be a touch low, but I’m not sure I’m 20 spots low. I don’t know how DET is going to work out, I think whoever wins the job gets most of the carries and is followed in snaps by Riddick. I think Blount finds himself in a weird 3A/3B situation with Abdullah.

Hey, These Guys Have ADP Data Tier
Player	Rank	Team	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Pos. Diff.	1stRk	Rank Diff.	1stADP
Ameer Abdullah	85	DET	8	279	82	3	45	40	269
Peyton Barber	88	TB	8	186	61	27	101	-13	158
Kallen Ballage	94	MIA	8	190	63	31	77	17	195
James Conner	104	PIT	9	236	74	30	79	25	304
Jeremy Hill	122	NE	10	224	70	52	123	-1	210
Jaylen Samuels	146	PIT	10	278	81	146	N/a	N/a	304

Lastly, we have six players who were in tier 8 or higher. Barber is the third or fourth best back on the team and will undoubtably make me look foolish when at least 2 backs in front of him get injured. Ballage is extremely physically talented and third on an odd Dolphins depth chart. I hope Conner is better this season than last, he’s a great story, and was spectacular at times at PITT, as of now a challenge from Samuels, whom I didn’t rank, isn’t inconceivable. Lastly, I think Hill gets cut in NE.