Alright
everything in one piece this week. Let’s start by looking at how last week went
for best bets.
We
had Temple (-2), Purdue (+115), Charlotte (-13.5), Illinois (+14.5), Wake
(-2.5), and App State (+185). We went 4-2 with both Money Line picks hitting,
Illinois and Temple covering, and our #KrihaBadBeats and #MorganSpecial overlapping.
That leaves our pertinents at…
The
Pertinent Information
Bankroll
- $11,345.91
ROI
– 25.88%
Record
– 31-19-2 (61.54%)
Note:
Find my #BestBets at the below the picks and viewers guide.
Weekday
Slate (Thursday and Friday)
The
weekday slate is pretty weak, but Fresno-SDSU has some potential intrigue.
Fresno
State at San Diego State (Fri. 8:30 pm, ESPN2)
If
Fresno can pull off the upset at SDSU then the MWC West is completely up for
grabs and becomes a clusterfuck. If SDSU wins they only have Hawaii to beat
next to clinch which should be an interesting game. The rest of our abbreviated
weekday slate is pretty week.
|
Home
|
Away
|
Home
Rating
|
Away
Rating
|
My
Spread
|
Win%
|
Date
|
Time
|
TV
|
|
Akron
|
Eastern Michigan
|
-49.907
|
-11.172
|
-37.377
|
90.2%
|
11/12
|
TBD
|
TBD
|
|
Ohio
|
Western Michigan
|
-6.935
|
1.400
|
-6.020
|
56.8%
|
11/12
|
TBD
|
-
|
|
Miami (OH)
|
Bowling Green
|
4.721
|
-25.130
|
31.559
|
83.9%
|
11/13
|
19:00
|
ESPNU
|
|
Toledo
|
Northern Illinois
|
-1.207
|
-16.373
|
17.469
|
68.8%
|
11/13
|
19:00
|
ESPN2
|
|
Kent State
|
Buffalo
|
-15.291
|
-0.040
|
-14.299
|
65.5%
|
11/14
|
18:00
|
CBSSN
|
|
Pittsburgh
|
North Carolina
|
9.401
|
2.794
|
8.886
|
59.8%
|
11/14
|
19:00
|
ESPN
|
|
Marshall
|
Louisiana Tech
|
2.356
|
12.362
|
-8.305
|
59.2%
|
11/15
|
18:00
|
CBSSN
|
|
San Diego State
|
Fresno State
|
8.525
|
-6.583
|
17.146
|
68.5%
|
11/15
|
20:30
|
ESPN
|
|
Mississippi State
|
Alabama
|
4.074
|
33.796
|
-25.697
|
77.6%
|
11/17
|
11:00
|
ESPN
|
|
Missouri
|
Florida
|
1.440
|
21.916
|
-17.372
|
68.7%
|
11/17
|
11:00
|
CBS
|
|
Michigan
|
Michigan State
|
25.041
|
5.965
|
24.956
|
76.8%
|
11/17
|
11:00
|
FOX
|
|
Penn State
|
Indiana
|
33.567
|
13.925
|
25.197
|
77.1%
|
11/17
|
11:00
|
ABC
|
|
Nebraska
|
Wisconsin
|
-1.308
|
22.650
|
-18.662
|
70.1%
|
11/17
|
11:00
|
BTN
|
|
Temple
|
Tulane
|
4.892
|
7.707
|
-1.531
|
52.0%
|
11/17
|
11:00
|
ESPNU
|
|
Florida State
|
Alabama State
|
4.591
|
-22.636
|
31.548
|
-
|
11/17
|
11:00
|
ACCN
|
|
Oklahoma State
|
Kansas
|
13.922
|
-11.813
|
29.591
|
81.8%
|
11/17
|
11:00
|
FS1
|
|
Texas Tech
|
TCU
|
-2.531
|
0.814
|
0.537
|
51.0%
|
11/17
|
11:00
|
ESPN2
|
|
Northwestern
|
UMASS
|
-17.157
|
-56.373
|
41.932
|
95.2%
|
11/17
|
11:00
|
BTN
|
|
Army
|
VMI
|
-12.474
|
-22.636
|
12.942
|
-
|
11/17
|
11:00
|
CBSSN
|
|
UAB
|
UTEP
|
-2.371
|
-36.025
|
34.700
|
87.3%
|
11/17
|
12:00
|
ESPN3
|
|
Notre Dame
|
Navy
|
21.244
|
14.798
|
11.262
|
62.3%
|
11/17
|
13:30
|
NBC
|
|
Georgia Southern
|
ULM
|
1.269
|
-6.619
|
9.644
|
60.6%
|
11/17
|
14:00
|
ESPN+
|
|
Texas State
|
Troy
|
-16.366
|
-7.731
|
-7.276
|
58.1%
|
11/17
|
14:00
|
ESPN3
|
|
Arkansas State
|
Coastal Carolina
|
3.177
|
-14.859
|
20.232
|
71.8%
|
11/17
|
14:00
|
ESPN+
|
|
BYU
|
Idaho State
|
8.135
|
-22.636
|
34.527
|
-
|
11/17
|
14:00
|
ESPN3
|
|
Clemson
|
Wake Forest
|
46.661
|
8.358
|
43.157
|
96.5%
|
11/17
|
14:30
|
ABC
|
|
Auburn
|
Georgia
|
25.743
|
29.052
|
1.697
|
52.2%
|
11/17
|
14:30
|
CBS
|
|
Rutgers
|
Ohio State
|
-19.544
|
46.238
|
-62.876
|
100.0%
|
11/17
|
14:30
|
BTN
|
|
Iowa State
|
Texas
|
9.889
|
12.434
|
1.306
|
51.8%
|
11/17
|
14:30
|
FS1
|
|
Houston
|
Memphis
|
-2.488
|
21.804
|
-21.375
|
73.0%
|
11/17
|
14:30
|
ESPN2
|
|
Ball State
|
Central Michigan
|
-7.648
|
-1.262
|
-5.843
|
56.6%
|
11/17
|
14:30
|
CBSSN
|
|
Georgia Tech
|
Virginia Tech
|
-14.281
|
-2.176
|
-8.780
|
59.7%
|
11/17
|
14:30
|
ACCN
|
|
Vanderbilt
|
Kentucky
|
-14.868
|
-0.255
|
-12.051
|
63.1%
|
11/17
|
14:30
|
SECN
|
|
Kansas State
|
West Virginia
|
13.944
|
-6.666
|
24.689
|
76.5%
|
11/17
|
14:30
|
ESPN
|
|
Iowa
|
Minnesota
|
15.955
|
27.911
|
-7.618
|
58.4%
|
11/17
|
15:00
|
FOX
|
|
Utah State
|
Wyoming
|
2.584
|
7.206
|
-2.327
|
52.9%
|
11/17
|
15:00
|
ESPNU
|
|
Duke
|
Syracuse
|
1.982
|
-8.326
|
12.593
|
63.7%
|
11/17
|
15:00
|
ACCN
|
|
UNLV
|
Hawaii
|
-23.907
|
1.080
|
-23.899
|
75.7%
|
11/17
|
15:00
|
-
|
|
New Mexico State
|
Incarnate Word
|
-29.382
|
-22.636
|
-5.668
|
-
|
11/17
|
15:00
|
-
|
|
Washington State
|
Stanford
|
-2.680
|
-1.985
|
2.460
|
53.0%
|
11/17
|
15:30
|
P12N
|
|
South Alabama
|
Louisiana
|
-29.999
|
19.735
|
-48.874
|
100.0%
|
11/17
|
16:00
|
ESPN+
|
|
UTSA
|
Southern Miss
|
-17.247
|
8.816
|
-25.078
|
76.9%
|
11/17
|
17:00
|
ESPN+
|
|
Mississippi
|
LSU
|
-3.509
|
40.113
|
-39.588
|
92.6%
|
11/17
|
18:00
|
ESPN
|
|
USF
|
Cincinnati
|
-10.026
|
26.275
|
-34.440
|
87.0%
|
11/17
|
18:00
|
CBSSN
|
|
Colorado State
|
Air Force
|
-11.246
|
16.738
|
-25.103
|
77.0%
|
11/17
|
18:00
|
ESPN2
|
|
Baylor
|
Oklahoma
|
24.581
|
27.990
|
0.275
|
50.7%
|
11/17
|
18:30
|
ABC
|
|
Texas A&M
|
South Carolina
|
12.264
|
-1.416
|
18.853
|
70.3%
|
11/17
|
18:30
|
SECN
|
|
NC State
|
Louisville
|
-9.515
|
1.760
|
-7.154
|
57.9%
|
11/17
|
18:30
|
ACCN
|
|
Oregon State
|
Arizona State
|
-3.680
|
3.784
|
-4.725
|
55.4%
|
11/17
|
18:30
|
FS1
|
|
Georgia State
|
Appalachian State
|
5.670
|
23.750
|
-16.480
|
67.8%
|
11/17
|
18:30
|
ESPNU
|
|
Utah
|
UCLA
|
30.480
|
1.445
|
32.901
|
85.3%
|
11/17
|
19:00
|
FOX
|
|
Boise State
|
New Mexico
|
18.821
|
-24.196
|
45.980
|
99.6%
|
11/17
|
21:15
|
ESPN2
|
|
Oregon
|
Arizona
|
30.376
|
-7.828
|
42.373
|
95.6%
|
11/17
|
21:30
|
ESPN
|
|
California
|
USC
|
1.503
|
15.350
|
-11.401
|
62.4%
|
11/17
|
22:00
|
FS1
|
|
Middle Tennessee
|
Rice
|
-11.300
|
-31.354
|
21.210
|
72.8%
|
11/17
|
15;30
|
ESPN+
|
Early
Slate (11:00 am to 12:00 pm)
A
rough early slate with a pair of alright Big Ten games highlighting.
Indiana
at Penn State (11:00 am, ABC)
Penn
State is in a letdown-lookahead sandwich after there loss to Minnesota over the
weekend and with Ohio State on tap next week. Indiana shouldn’t be an issue at
home for the Nittany Lions but a letdown to compound the original loss would be
unfortunate if not a complete surprise.
Michigan
State at Michigan (11:00 am, FOX)
It’s
a rough early slate so see if little brother can find some really stupid magic
and take down a Michigan that has seemed to be much more stable as of late.
Midday
Slate (1:30 pm to 4:00 pm)
A
good slate. An SEC banger (Aub-UGA), an important B1G rivalry (Iowa-Minn), a
weird Big XII matchup (ISU-Tex), and a trio of G5 games of note (ULM-GaSo, Wyo-USU,
Navy-ND).
Navy
at Notre Dame (1:30 pm, NBC)
Navy
heads to Notre Dame for a game that is much closer than expected at the beginning
of the season. The job that Ken Niumatalolo has done at Navy this year is
beyond commendable. Brian Kelly will be in full red face for at least part of
the game and the Midshipmen have a real shot to flummox the Golden Domers.
ULM
at Georgia Southern (2:00 pm, ESPN+)
The
loser of this game is officially out of their respective divisional race. The
winner has an outside shot. Southern has a win over App State, ULM has seemed
to slip in stature each week. Momentum vs not momentum. Take your pick.
Georgia
at Auburn (2:30 pm, CBS)
This
is the game of the week. A rivalry with just insane occurrences over the years
and two flawed but talented teams. I think Auburn’s ability to stop the run
with a talented front 7 is the key to everything here.
Iowa
at Minnesota (2:30pm, FOX)
Ummm,
this is the second-best game of the afternoon and possibly one of the most
consequential of the weekend. A win here and against Northwestern next week
clinches the Big Ten West before the rivalry game against Minnesota. A loss to
Iowa makes the Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Ax a winner takes all match. Iowa’s
gonna muck this up, Minnesota has a legit offense. This one’ll be fun.
#WhoHatesIowa
Texas
at Iowa State (2:30 pm, ESPN+)
Ooh
boy Herman’s gonna have some splainin’ to do if they lose to Iowa State and
they’re 2 out of the race for the conference title game this season. Iowa State
continues to be really solid to good under Matt Campbell who might just be the
Tony Bennett of CFB.
Wyoming
at Utah State (3:00 pm, ESPNU)
Utah
State needs this one to have a chance at the division against Boise in two weeks.
These are two even teams and should be well matched even if it is buried on a
pretty solid Saturday afternoon.
Evening
Slate (5:00 pm to 7:00 pm)
Watch
Baylor-OU, keep an eye on App-GaSt, and UCLA-Utah matters and it’s fucking
glorious.
Oklahoma
at Baylor (6:30 pm, ABC)
Baylor
is good, Baylor has been kind of lucky, Oklahoma’s been both as well. It’s been
a disappointing run for OU with the loss to Kansas State. Baylor can do what
KSU did. OU has the ability to absolutely wreck them. No matter what happens
this one will be illuminating.
Appalachian
State at Georgia State (6:30 pm, ESPNU)
App
State can put themselves in solid position to win the division with a win over
Georgia State but the Georgia Southern loss looms large over what could have
been a magical season for App State.
UCLA
at Utah (7:00 pm, FOX)
This
game matters but isn’t quite #Pac12AfterDark so the Bruins will have to win
without the power of P12AD voodoo.
Late
Slate (9:15 pm to 10:00 pm)
Pretty
meh west coast slate. But I’ll suggest watching the #Pac12AfterDark because USC
might fire a coach at the airport again.
Arizona
State at Oregon (9:30 pm, ESPN)
Oregon
Should romp, but ASU makes things sloppy and Cristobal has been poor in close
late game situations.
USC
California (10:00 pm, FS1)
If
Garbers plays Cal has a much better shot of winning, if he doesn’t this is USC’s
game to lose. Helton is almost certainly gone we’ll see if he makes the end of
the season after Saturday night.
I
got way behind this week and my advice is just to bet against bad teams (except
for the USC-Cal game and the Louisville/NCSU game). I.e. a trio of
#MorganSpecials.
Buffalo
(-6.5) at Kent State
A
Thursday #MorganSpecial. Kent State is real bad, Buffalo isn’t great, but has
had their moments and is the better coached team with the best unit on the field
(Buff Def. 51st in efficiency).
Coastal
Carolina at Arkansas State (-12.5)
The
Arkansas State defense is exceptionally bad, but the offense is legit and the Chanticleers
are a bottom 35 team on both sides of the ball.
Hawaii
(-7) at UNLV
See:
Arkansas State but with a worse defense and a better offense.
Louisville
(-4) at NC State
Scott
Satterfield has done a splendid job in the wake of Bobby Petrino. This team is
solid, and I don’t think many would have seen this preseason. For NC State injuries
and inconsistency have spelled a disappointing season but they’re alright on both
sides of the ball and have a shot if they can pull it together this week at
home against the Cardinals.
USC
at California (+210)
Alright
this one is my most out there and I will add a caveat. If Chase Garbers is
playing for Cal take the Bears. With Garbers that offense is competent, without
him there is no help for a legit defense. So Gabrbers in, take the money line,
Garbers not starting take USC and give the points.
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