2019 College Football: Week 11 - Best Bets

We now have a three-week run of 11-3-1 and obviously I’m hoping to keep that going. Two out of the three weeks including money line plays and this week we get two of those as well as a sixth pick. Let’s review where we stand and look at this week’s best bets…

The Pertinent Information (After)

Bankroll - $11,064.09

ROI – 23.13%

Record – 27-17-2 (60.87%)

Temple (-2) at USF

A Thursday night road game in Tampa pits the Owls against an alright but nothing special USF. It’s a strength vs. weakness matchup and I trust the Temple defense to shutdown the Bulls much more than I trust the Bulls defense to shut down the Owls offense.

Purdue (+115) at Northwestern

Northwestern can’t score points (78 all year (41 in conference)). They also have given up just shy of 26 per game. Purdue has been inconsistent, but they’ve been able to beat bad teams when they come up on the schedule.

Charlotte (-13.5) at UTEP

This week’s #MorganSpecial once again picks on UTEP. Charlotte has an offense (#54 in offensive efficiency) and UTEP is very bad on both sides of the ball. Take this anywhere under 17 and cash out on Saturday.

Illinois (+14.5) at Michigan State

The Michigan State defense is legit and a top 15 unit nationally, but their offense is bad enough that I don’t think they should be giving double digit points to all but the dregs of the conference. Illinois for their part are a solid team on both sides of the ball and both the Wisconsin and Eastern Michigan games are anomalies that average out with the rest of the schedule to make a solid team. Take the points and cuss me out if I’m wrong on this one.

Wake Forest (-2.5) at Virginia Tech

I don’t get this line. Not that Wake should be giant favorites but that it’s under 3 let alone 6. Wake is good on offense, and average on defense, while Va. Tech is slightly above average on defense and poor on offense. Wake should win, but there might be a little line sweat ‘til the end of the game.

Appalachian State (+185) at South Carolina

If you don’t want to take App State straight up, try to wait to see if it crosses over 7 but if not here’s the case for the Mountaineers. First, App State is going to be pissed about losing to a rival and have something to prove against an SEC squad. Second, and more scientifically, these two teams have performed pretty equally to this point of the season. App State is a more balanced between their offensive and defensive efficiency, where South Carolina has a top-25 defense and barely a top-75 offense. The ‘Cocks are more talented overall but injuries especially at QB could be there ultimate downfall.

There we are a six-pack of best bets this week. One #MorganSpecial, 2 money lines, and a trio of mid-conference matchups to boot.