Rambling's 2014 Week 2 CFB Recap

It was a crazy early day slate that shook things up. The Big Ten had a no good, very awful, bad day which won't help anyone out. Overall a lot of chalk won, without much clarity overall.

Thursday, September 4th, 2014:
UTSA took Arizona down to the wire with two drives down three with the second ending on a bizarre shovel pass interception that was a major gaffe by the QB. I tend to think that this portends more things for how good UTSA is than any negative for Arizona who scored 26 and looked good enough on defense. PP: (1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU) Me: (1-0 ATS, 1-0 SU)

Saturday, September 6th, 2014:
First, full disclosure I worked Saturday morning and don't get to watch the early games. I do keep track of what happens and do my best to catch up on what happened. Alabama, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Auburn, Arizona State all took care of business with little to no problems and we don't need to spend too much time on them. Kansas State struggled with Iowa State in Ames, and much to my chagrin I didn't pay heed to my numbers when making my prediction. Kansas State is a good team but they aren't shaping up like a team that will come close to Auburn. Missouri struggled early with Toledo, especially through the air, but did what it had to do and pulled away by 20 late in the game to take the relatively easy road win. Washington continued to show flaws in it's closer than the score would let on win over EWU. This isn't to say Washington won't be good, but the defense has major flaws and the offense needs to work out kinks quickly before the Pac-12 eats it alive. USC-Stanford was an entertaining, but sloppy game by both teams but especially Stanford who were coached much to timidly and made far too many mental mistakes to win this game against an equally talented team who looked like they hadn't played that way in over a year. USC is very good but they were gifted this game and need to make offensive adjustments quickly. Michigan State-Oregon was a hell of a game for about three quarters and then the wheels fell off as Connor Cook was asked to press more to get points and a young defense was asked to keep up with the tempo and talent of Oregon. I thought Michigan State equitted itself well enough but they aren't a playoff caliber team this season. South Carolina struggled to put East Carolina away but they won and for now that is all that matter, but if the defense doesn't mature, well, the OBC may not have many nice visors left. Michigan and Texas suffered similar fates as both were blown out, although Texas had a few more circumstances going against them. Both showed they don't have what it takes this season but the Texas defense at least played well until the disadvantages given them by their offense finally broke the proverbial damn. Ohio State was the most disconcerting team of the night, they struggled against a good but not great Virginia Tech offense and don't have the wide receivers to help their freshman quarterback. This team has the talent to still be a very good playoffesque team but they seem lost without Braxton Miller (Injury) and Carlos Hyde (NFL). North Carolina and UCLA both continued their struggles from week one against San Diego State and Memphis. Both pulled out victories but not without creating more doubts than answers.
PP: (9-6 ATS, 14-1 SU) Me: (6-9 ATS, 14-1 SU)

Weekly Record: PP: (10-6 ATS, 15-1 SU) Me: (7-9 ATS, 15-1 SU)

2014 Rambling Sports Week 2 CFB Preview

A good first week but could have been better against the spread (Me 9-8, Power Ranks 10-7). Week two shoudl be even better, enjoy.

Thursday, September 4th, 2014:

Arizona (41.75) at UTSA (38.12) (HFA:2), 7:00 pm Fox Sports 1: This one snuck up on me this week with the holiday and other life events but is a welcome addition to a football Thursday to pair with the Seattle-Green Bay game. UTSA comes into this game off a schlacking of Houston on the road in week one. UTSA has talent and seniority and by god Larry Coker can coach. Arizona for their part beat UNLV by 45 and showed that offense under Rich Rod is ready to roll. The big questions here and the ones I am most excited to answer are whether the Arizona defense will be up to snuff and how much of the UTSA showing in week 1 was a Houston team that was meh and how much is a UTSA team that's gonna sneak up on a lot of people throughout the season. Power Pick: Arizona by 1.63 My Pick: Arizona 31-27 Line: Arizona -7

Saturday, September 6th, 2014:

FAU (7.93) at #2 Alabama (41) (HFA:5.45), 11:00 am SEC Network: Alabama moves forward from a challenge againt West Virginia to a challenge against boredom and known Saban rival, bored and over this game Alabama fans. This shouldn't be much of a test for Alabama and won't tell us much about either side in the contest. Power Pick: Alabama by 38.52 My Pick: Alabama 52-16 Line: Alabama -40.5
#4 Oklahoma (55.14)at Tulsa (14.11) (HFA:1.98), 11:00 am ABC/ESPN2: Oklahoma heads to Tulsa who is off a win over rival Tulane in week 1. Oklahoma trashed Louisiana Tech and looked good but we won't really know how that defense is gonna look till it gets tested. Oklahoma should romp again and being on the road shouldn't be too tough two hours up the road in Tulsa. Power Pick: Oklahoma by 39.06 My Pick: Oklahoma 45-20 Line: Oklahoma -24.5
#20 Kansas State (25.66) at Iowa State (19.83) (HFA:4.04), 11:00 Fox Sports 1: Kansas State travels to AMES!!! The place where dreams go to die, both literally and figuratively. Kansa State is a dark horse for many, I'm not so high. I think they're good but infallible no. Iowa State lost to North Dakota State because, they were stupid enough to schedule North Dakota State. Kansas State made the same mistake last year and look where they are now. Power Pick: Kansa State by 1.79 My Pick: Kansas State 24-10 Line: Kansas State -11.5
#24 Missouri (46.22) at Toledo (28.82) (HFA:2.29), 11:00 am ESPN: Missouri heads to Toledo in one of the more striking road trips of the week (and that's saying something). Both teams crushed FCS opponents week one and told us absolutely nothing. Toledo should be one of the best teams in the MAC and some Saturday mornin' MACtion could be in order. Missouri looks like a strong regression candidate but I think they pull out a squeaker in Toledo. Power Pick: Missouri by 15.1 My Pick: Missuori 24-21 Line: Missouri -4
Eastern Washington at #25 Washington, 2:05 pm Pac-12 Net: A rambling sports first for me, I never include FCS versus top 25 matchups but with Eastern Washignton being number two in the FBS poll one point behind North Dakota State I think this is a very good test for Washington.The other thing I won't be doing is putting my power ranks on it because I don't figure a rank for the FCS squads. Eastern Washington should be a better test than Hawaii last year and if Washington isn't rounded into shape this is a loss. My Pick: Washington 42-38
#15 USC (52.85) at #11 Stanford (46.33) (HFA:3.78), 2:30 pm ABC: Normal timed Pac-12 top 15 conference action between the Trojans and Cardinal. Outside of the rankings this is an intriguing matchup, USC upset Stanford late in the year. USC got rid of Lane Kiffin at the helm and brought in Steve Sarkisian who led the Trojans to a dismantling of Fresno State in week 1. USC is one of the most talented starting units in the country but the depth is still feeling the effects of recruiting sanctions. Stanford lost it's defensive coordinator but has a bunch of talent returning in the front seven and a QB-receving corps combo that will surprise many.  Power Pick: USC by 2.75 My Pick: Stanford 28-24 Line: Stanford -2.5
#18 Ole Miss (46.97) at Vanderbilt (26.66) (HFA:3.2), 3:30 pm ESPN: Ole Miss heads to Vandy and looks to repeat what Temple did in Nashville. I don't think anything else needs to be said. Power Pick: Ole Miss by 17.11 My Pick: Ole Miss 45-24 Line: Ole Miss -19.5
#8 Michigan State (44.46) at #3 Oregon (63.3) (HFA:4.31), 5:30 pm FOX: The marquee game of the weekend is Michigan State's visit to Oregon. Michigan State boasts Pat Narduzzi and a defense that was best in the country at stopping offenses against Mark Helfrich and an offense that was good at being succesful but just a tick off the old Kelly offenses. It's cliche but Mariota and Cook are the keys to this game. Mariota's running ability and the ability to make smart decisions with the football should keep Oregon on the field and give their defense positive field position. Cook got better every week last season and by all accounts showed flashes of some great traits and continued growth against Jacksonville State. If Michigan State can force Mariota into mistakes and Cook can beat a talented secondary through the air Michigan State has all too real chance to win. Power Pick: Oregon by 23.15 My Pick: Oregon 38-34 Line: Oregon -13.5
San Jose State (12.33) at #6 Auburn (67.47) (HFA:4.84), 6:00 pm ESPN2: San Jose State goes to Auburn and I don't think we see a second straight team hang around on the plains in the first half. Power Pick: Auburn by 59.97 My Pick: Auburn 66-13 Line: Auburn -32

Editor's Note: This is as far as I got before the Thursday game, look for the rest later tonight or tomorrow morning. 7:00 pm 9/4

East Carolina (16.31) at #9 South Carolina (56.47) (HFA:4.85), 6:00 pm ESPNU: South Carolina disappointed week one when visiting Texas A&M just romped a young Gamecock secondary. East Carolina presents a slightly lesser threat. ECU is set for their first big test after beating NC Central last week but just doesn't have the talent or experience to put too much of a scare into Spurrier, et.al. Power Pick: South Carolina by 45.01 My Pick: South Carolina 41-13 Line: South Carolina -16
#19 Arizona State (45.26) at New Mexico (1.38) (HFA:1.95), 6:00 pm CBSSN: New Mexico hosts Airzona State in the battle for, well, 1/4 of the southwest bragging rigths, maybe? Arizona State should romp here and get their young players on both sides of the ball another week of getting comfortable as the bigger games continue to loom on the horizon. For New Mexico keeping it close for three quarters would be a step in the right direction. Power Pick: Arizona State by 41.92 My Pick: Arizona State 38-3 Line: Arizona State -25
Michigan (34) at #17 Notre Dame (39.43) (HFA:4.79), 6:30 pm NBC: Michigan and Notre Dame face off in their annual rivalry game that is about to end because Notre Dame says so... ok? Michigan looked, dare I say it, competent on offense. And the defense whipped up a strong performance versus App State but Notre Dame will be a much stronger test. Everrett Golson is back at the helm for Notre Dame and that is the difference in this game. Power Pick: Notre Dame by 10.22 My Pick: Notre Dame 35-34 Line: Notre Dame -4
BYU (20.17) at Texas (30.96) (HFA:5.33), 6:30 pm Fox Sports 1: This game was much clearer after the games ended last week and then... everyone on the Texas offense got hurt, suspended or concussed. I still think the Texas defense is improved enough under Smart to shut down BYU but this isn't the coast it was a couple days ago. Power Pick: Texas by 16.12 My Pick: Texas 24-21 Line: BYU -1
Virginia Tech (31.69) at #5 Ohio State (42.2) (HFA:5.55), 7:00 pm ESPN: Virginia Tech travels west to face off against Ohio State. The Buckeyes were sloppy week one against Navy and it to Barrett and company time to work into for but they pulled away late and have enough talent to be close to what they would have been with Miller. Bud Foster will have a stingy defense as always and the DBs should grow into wonderful players but they are still very young and raw. I think Ohio State wins a slogfest that gets twitter screaming about the game getting set back. Power Pick: Ohio State by 16.06 My Pick: Ohio State 20-14
San Diego State (17.92) at #23 North Carolina (33.99) (HFA:3.53), 7:00 pm ESPNEWS: North Carolina looked bad against Liberty into the second half but figured it out in the third and left them in the dust. Against San Diego State they need to show that that is an anomaly and not that this team has trouble getting up on game day. Power Pick: North Carolina by 19.6 My Pick: North Carolina 24-10 Line: North Carolina -15
Memphis (18.21) at #7 UCLA (60.91) (HFA:3.83), 9:00 pm Pac-12 Net: Memphis won 62-0 over Austin Peay but UCLA presents a much tougher test. UCLA shoudl romp even with the offensive line issues that flared up in a very ominous way against Virginia. If they can control Memphis and start a meaningful matruation of the line then this will be a very good UCLA team. Power Pick: UCLA by 46.53 My Pick: UCLA 35-13 Line: UCLA -23.5

Rambling's 2014 Week 1 CFB Recap

Thursday, August 28th, 2014:
Thursday started off a bit rough, Texas A&M romped and surprised many of it's even staunchest supporters beating South Carolina 52-28 on the road. I thought it'd be a close game and maybe a bit sloppy but Kenny Hill and crew came out and executed against a young Gamecock secondary. The second game went a little bit better. No Ole Miss didn't romp on Boise like the final score suggests but they did a great job when backed into their own endzone and executed late to pull away from a Boise team that looks like trouble as the season progresses. Thursday's Results: PP (1-1 ATS, 1-1 SU) Me (2-0 ATS, 1-1 SU)

Saturday, August 30th, 2014:
Early footballa and I both envy and don't envy west coast college football fans. Penn State-UCF was what we thought it was going to be a rough day for the lines. The surprise was the play of Holman who replaced DeNovo at halftime and led a much more potent attack for UCF. Ohio State, UCLA and Notre Dame all followed similar scripts struggling early and pulling away in the second half. Of those, UCLA is the most worrisome as the line was very meh and Hundley didn't handle the pressure well. Nebraska, USC, Oklahoma all just ran away from overmatched opponnents. Auburn beat Arkansas by 24 but Arkansas impressed keeping up with Auburn for the entire first half and looking fiesty on offense with work to do on defense. Florida State struggled wtih Oklahoma State for most of the game and didn't look like the far and away number one team in the land. Oklahoma State was very impresssive and looks to be moving forward on defense well enough to hold Florida State in check. LSU-Wisconsin was about what we thought and that is all I have to say without ranting for a thousand words. Washington was the most worrisome team of the weekend only beating Hawaii by a point on the road. I will hold my judgements of Washington for a week or two with Cyler Myles back but they are on notice.
Friday's Results: PP (7-5 ATS, 10-2 SU) Me (6-6 ATS, 11-1 SU)

Sunday, August 31st, 2014:
The mid-major squads didn't perform all that well Sunday as both fell by at least 20 points. The real stories are the injury of Bryce Petty (hopefully healthy sooner than later) and Tennessee looking very good against a Utah State team that may just be Chuckie Keeton doing his best Atlas impression.
Sunday's Results: PP (2-0 ATS, 2-0 SU) Me (1-1 ATS, 2-0 SU)

Monday, September 1st, 2014:
Louisville was by far the better team on the field against Miami but both teams showed that they have sizeable flaws.
Monday's Results: PP (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU) Me (0-1 ATS, 1-0 SU)

Week 1 Results: PP (10-7 ATS, 14-3 SU) Me (9-8 ATS, 15-2 SU) Overall a pretty good week and with a lot of cupcakes that is to be expected but it's always nice to start off well.

2014 Rambling Sports Week 1 CFB Preview

This season I am doing something a little bit different with the weekly preview. I am still predicting all the top 25 games and games of interest to me and hopefully you, but I am also incorporating the number from a rating system I have been tinkering with the last couple of seasons. The numbers in the in the () after each team are the power rating numbers and I will use those to inform my picks. Hope you enjoy.

Thursday, August 28^th, 2014:

#21 Texas A&M (48.29) at #9 South Carolina (56.80) (HFA:4.85), 5:00 pm SEC Network: This game is intriguing on a couple different levels. Both teams have to replace quarterbacks and natioanl stars. For A&M that is one and the same Johnny Manziel, who was both the most intriguing player on and off the field. South Carolina needs to replace Connnor Shaw and Jadeveon Clowney. To replace Shaw is Dylan Thompson who has all the tools and the confidence of the Ol' Ball Coach to replace Clowney will be a team effort but there is a deep group of talent to do it. I think this one is a bit of a slog but the A&M defense is the weakest unit on the field and the Gamecock defense should be good enough to hold the Aggie offense in check most of the game. Power Pick: South Carolina by 13.37 My Pick: South Carolina 24-21 Line: S Car -10.5

Boise State (21.79) vs #18 Ole Miss (45.16) (Atlanta), 7:00 pm ESPN: Boise State is in it's first game of it's first season without Chris Petersen at the helm since '05 and the first time without him on the sideline since '00. A tough game against a very good SEC squad will tell us a lot about how this team is going to look year one under Bryan Harsin. For Ole Miss, Dr. Bo is back for his senior year and at the helm of what is the best Rebel squad in some time. Hugh Freeze should have the offense rockin' and rollin' and the defense anchored by Robert Nkemdiche should slow down the Broncos Rushing attack. Power Pick: Ole Miss by 23.37 My Pick: Ole Miss 35-17 Line: Ole Miss -10 to -11

Saturday, August 30^th, 2014:

Penn State (25.26) vs UCF (26.88) (Dublin, Ireland), 7:30 am ESPN2: Penn State and UCF head to Dublin and give you some early morninng football to enjoy. UCF should be fun to watch if only to see how they replace Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson. The defense should be improved off a top 40 performance in 2013. Penn State has a distinct advantage with Chrsitian Hackenberg under center but Allen Robinson is gone and with sanctions a lack of experience on the offensive line may bring up unforseen depth issues. This one is a toss up by the numbers and one I could see going either way. Power Pick: UCF by 1.62 My Pick: UCF 17-13 Line: UCF -1 to -2

#5 Ohio State (37.94) at Navy (32.87) (HFA:3.49), 11:00 am CBS Sports Net: Ohio State heads to Navy week one for a tricky test without Braxton Miller who is out for the year. At first blush to me this was a blowout but when my numbers say something this radically different I have to take another look. Navy returns a lot for an offense that is intricate and based on getting to know the feel. While Ohio State lost a lot on both sides of the ball, they do have a much improved defensive line. Secondary, quarterback and o-line are quesiton marks and if Navy can score on offense this could be uncomfortably close for The Ohio State University. Power Pick: Navy by 1.58 My Pick: Ohio State 24-17 Line: Ohio State -15 to -16.5

#7 UCLA (59.39) at Virginia (23.59) (HFA:3.19), 11:00 am ESPN: UCLA travels to Virginia in an early morning week 1 trap game. I'll explain... teams traveling from the west coast to the east coast suffer from jet lag and it affects the traveling team in a pretty significant way. I think UCLA still wins much like Oregon in last years opener, but I don't think it's affects them enough to lose the game, just the amount they dominate it. Power Pick: UCLA by 32.61 My Pick: UCLA 31-17 Line: UCLA -21

Rice (16.90) at #17 Notre Dame (38.30) (HFA:4.79), 2:30 pm NBC: Rice travels to Notre Dame to face a squad mired in a academic scandal. Three starters and a key back up are off the team but Notre Dame shouldn't have too much trouble with a Rice squad that is much less experienced than last year. Power Pick: Notre Dame by 26.19 My Pick: Notre Dame 21-10 Line: Notre Dame -21

FAU (9.17) at #22 Nebraska (27.36) (HFA:5.12), 2:30 pm BTN: What would have been the Pelini bowl is now one man and cat's vendetta against a school. FAU-Nebraska: This time it's personal. Power Pick: Nebraska by 23.31 My Pick: Nebraska 28-10 Line: Nebraska -22

Arkansas (26.98) at #6 Auburn (65.76) (HFA:4.84), 3:00 pm SEC Network: Bert and Hogville head to the plains to take on Malzahn and co. Arkansas should have a very good running game and be able to move the ball a bit, but the pass game could be close to non-existant if Brandon Allen doesn't improve this season. Auburn lost Tre Mason and Dee Ford but the pass game should be more dangerous and Arkansas isn't the team to exploit their flaws. Power Pick: Auburn by 43.61 My Pick: Auburn 42-20 Line: Auburn -19.5

#16 Clemson (39.34) at #12 Georgia (41.76) (HFA:5.13), 4:30 pm ESPN: Clemson-Georgia was the best game of opening weekend last season. Clemson outlasted Georgia on the strength of their defense and the solid play of Boyd and Watkins. Georgia lost Aaron Murray but get a bunch of players healthy in the receiving corps and Keith Marshall in the backfield to pair up with Todd Gurley. Clemson for it's part lost Boyd, Watkins and Bryant, but the defense should be the strength. If the defense is as good as expected this should be another barn burner in Athens. Power Pick: Georgia by 7.55 My Pick: Georgia 27-21 Line: Georgia -7.5

Louisiana Tech (-1.34) at #4 Oklahoma (54.96) (HFA:4.99), 6:00 pm: Two years ago this would have been one hell of a match up but since the departure of Sonny Dykes La Tech has done a similar nose dive to Cal. Oklahoma should romp and work out any of the kinks in the defense and passing game. Power Pick: Oklahoma by 61.28 My Pick: Oklahoma 42-3 Line: Oklahoma -38

Fresno State (22.57) at #15 USC (51.35) (HFA:4.32), 6:30 pm FOX: A rematch of last years bowl game see Fresno a much lesser version of that December team with the departure of Derek Carr. USC is rid of Kiffin but brough in eight win Steve. This should be an easy USC win as they are one of the most talented starting lineups in the country. Power Pick: USC by 33.11 My Pick: USC 45-10 Line: USC -21.5

#1 Florida State (58.94) vs Oklahoma State (30.15) (Arlington), 7:00 pm ABC: One of the headliners of the evening and the site for College Gameday is the showdown of the Seminoles and Cowboys. This would have been a hell of a game last season with a Cowboys defense that was severly underrated and an offense that was pretty darn good. With the losses on defense though Oklahoma State is going to need to make this a track meet to have a chance and Florida States have the guns for that type of game too. Power Pick: Florida State by 28.79 My Pick: 56-38 Line: Florida State -17.5 to -19

#14 Wisconsin (30.22) vs #13 LSU (39.21) (Houston), 8:00 pm ESPN: This is the game I'm most interested in on Saturday. Both teams have stellar running games, passing games that lost their producers and defenses that saw high levels of attrition. The biggest difference is LSU restocks with 4 and 5 star players and Wisconsin reloads with 3 stars. That being said Gordon-Fournette is going to be a hell of a show and this game is going to fly by. Power Pick: LSU by 8.99 My Pick: LSU 24-20 Line: LSU -4.5 to -5

#25 Washington (46.85) at Hawaii (1.27) (HFA:2.34), 9:30 pm CBS Sports Net: The late game from the islands and shouldn't be very close. Washington is a Pac-12 dark horse candidate with Chris Petersen at the helm and should trounce a Hawaii squad that is probably wondering how long their team will be together. Power Pick: Washington by 43.24 My Pick: Washinton 38-10 Line: Washington -17

Sunday, August 31^st, 2014:

Utah State (19.17) at Tennessee (20.91) (HFA:4.99), 6:00 pm SEC Network: This isn't the game with a top ten team in it but it is the more intriguing of the games on Sunday. CHUCKIE KEATON is back after falling to injury last season, he may not be all the way back to speed in game one but as Spener Hall (@edsbs) said last year, "Chuckie gonna fuck somebody up." Tennessee is at least a year off but there is talent and this game is at home which should give them the edge in a close contest. Power Pick: Tennessee by 6.74 My Pick: Tennessee 20-17 Line: Tennessee -6

SMU (6.38) at #10 Baylor (42.44) (HFA:3.4), 6:30 pm FOX Sports 1: The other game of note on Sunday is an in-state game between SMU and Baylor. SMU is in a rebuilding year under June Jones but should be back in a year or two. Baylor for it's part needs to prove it's healthy on offense and that it can fill holes on defense while maintiaining a level of play near where last saeason was. Power Pick: Baylor by 39.46 My Pick: Baylor 56-17 Line: Baylor -33

Monday, September 1^st, 2014:

Miami (FL) (35.80) at Louisville (33.11) (HFA:3.95), 7:00 pm ESPN:  The last game of the weekend will set up the upcoming ACC season outside of Florida State. Miami comes in with a true freshman QB under center. Although that is something to pause over he is able to turn and hand off to Duke Johnson. Johnson is one of the ten best backs in the country and is the focal point of the offense. Louisville needs to replace Bridgewater and with Devonta Parker that is going to be much more difficult. The defense should be good and with Petrino at the helm the offense should be competent but I'm intriguied to see the transition from Strong to Petrino. Power Pick: Louisville by 1.26 My Pick: Louisville 21-20 Line: Louisville -3.5

2014 SEC Preview

The SEC’s run of seven straight national championships came to a halt when Auburn fell to Florida State. Let us all rejoice and realize it could just as easily start up again this season. The SEC is still at worst the second best conference and that is mainly attributed to the question marks surrounding the loss of eight starting quarterbacks in the league. Will anyone step up to challenge Alabama and Auburn, can Vanderbilt continue its success without James Franklin and who’s coming out of the East?

Subtractions/Additions

No change in the conference structure have been made since the additions of Texas A&M and Missouri in 2012. Although there is speculation of moves to 16 team conferences there isn’t anything specific.

Recent History

The SEC hasn’t had a repeat winner since the ’97 & ’98 years when Tennessee won the conference in successive years. The last three seasons have seen West division teams win it. 2011 saw LSU take the conference crown after a 9-6 game against Alabama in the regular season to claim the division. 2012 saw Alabama win the conference in one of the more entertaining championship games of the past couple years that saw Georgia fall short in the red zone as time expired. Last year’s champion was the surprise return to glory of Auburn, who reached Atlanta with the help of back to back last second wins against Georgia and Alabama. Auburn beat the equally surprising Missouri in a high quality game and went on to the National Championship.

Coaching Changes

There was only one coaching change in the SEC and it was at best an immediate downgrade. James Franklin is gone for Penn State and a permanent place in the angry hearts of the entire southeast. Franklin brought Vanderbilt to new heights but decided three years was enough time to spend in Nashville. To replace Franklin the Commodores brought in Derek Mason the Stanford DC the last couple of years. I don’t doubt Mason’s ability to coach, his love of the game or his recruiting ability but I will always be skeptical of a new coach going into one of the toughest major conference jobs in the country.

Team Write-ups (Division, 2013 W-L, Total Returning Starters, Returning Off (Starters (QB), % Yards), Returning Def (Starters, % yards) *coach records are career numbers

Alabama Crimson Tide – (West, 11-2, 12, 7(N), 84.2%, 5, 59%) Saban has apologized for the lackluster 2013 season and is ready to move on and win with drones again in 2014. And in a decision that is all the rage in 2014, like twerking or the #ALSIcebucketchallenge, Saban has named co-starters for week one. Blake Sims and Jacob Coker haven’t separated from each other in practice and will need game time to break the tie. Whomever wins the is going to end up in the McCarron, McElroy mold and have a great group of players around them and be asked not to fuck it up. The backfield is loaded with former four and five stars (like most of the lineup) and headlined by T.J. Yeldon. Yeldon the former five star junior ran for 1235 yards on 5 yards a carry and as seems to happen every year in the Bama backfield was overshadowed by a younger player. That player was Derrick Henry who averaged almost 11 yards per carry in 2013 and had a strong showing in the bowl game against Oklahoma. The lost man in this equation is junior Kenyan Drake who averaged 7.5 yards a carry on 92 carries in 2013. This sis a loaded backfield with not enough carries to go around and isn’t a worry added to the drop-off talk. Heading to the outside of the field the Kenny Hill and Kevin Norwood are gone but this is still a stacked group that should be a great help for either Sims or Coker. Amari Cooper is the headliner, a junior Cooper had an excellent sophomore campaign at 9.9 yards per target but needs to be a bit more sure-handed as 60.8% catch rate is a bit low for an elite receiver. Christian Jones and DeAndrew White are back for good sized roles in their senior year and provide a pair of options with great hands. Add to that group five star sophomore TE O.J. Howard and this is a group that can attack you in multiple ways just in the passing game. Ed Stinson and Jeoffrey Pagan are gone but they are replaced by a pair of five star sophomores in A’Shawn Robinson and Jonathan Allen who should pick up the slack with little problem. Sandwiched in the middle is senior Brandon Ivory who is there to clog the middle and create space for the linebackers. Behind those three are three four star sophomores and a five star freshman Da’Shawn Hand who could see considerable playing time in his freshman year. C.J. Mosley will leave a leadership void but from a talent standpoint the linebackers will see little to no drop off. Every starter will be a four star junior and followed on the depth chart by at worst a four star sophomore and/or freshman with two five star’s stuck in the two deep. Saban does a great job of coaching his DBs and this year’s talented group should be no different. If Landon Collins and Nick Perry (coming off injury) play up to their potential then this should be a secondary that at worst is above average and at best is one of the 5-10 best in the country. This is the most talented roster in the conference and the nation but they underwhelmed (slightly) last season but should be championship quality once again. Head Coach: Nick Saban (165-57-1) Since 2007

LSU Tigers – (West, 10-3, 12, 5(N), 24.5%, 7, 67.8%) LES!!!! Prior to the week one tilt with Wisconsin Les Miles has said that both Anthony Jennings (So) and Brandon Harris (Fr) will play in the opener and although that isn’t ideal having two supremely talented players at your disposal. Jennings was bad in his limited action, completing 45% of his passes for 4.5 per attempt. He obviously hasn’t completely blown away the staff to be splitting duties with Harris but that’s not to say he hasn’t improved over the offseason. Harris is an exciting athlete and the combination of him and Leonard Fournette has the LSU faithful jazzed (get it because New Orleans is in Louisiana). Jeremy Hill and Alfred Blue are gone and with them 1750 yards. Terrence Magee is back for his senior season off a year in which he carried the ball at a 7.3 yard per attempt clip. Behind him Kenny Hilliard was good enough but at 4.5 yards per carry nothing to write home about. The headliner and game changer is the aforementioned Fournette. A five star back who Fournette is thought of by many to be the next Adrian Peterson and there have been whispers of Heisman around the true freshman. I don’t want to go that far but am giddy to see what this young man can do with such hype surrounding him. That rushing attack needs to be because no one is back from the receiving corps. Now that is an exaggeration but not a huge one. There are 33 catches back from last season and only 8 of them are from returning receivers. Well Landry and Beckham Jr aren’t coming through that door and that means the Tigers must replace 2300 yards of production. Now some of that should come from the rushing attack but most of it will need to come from the receivers so let’s take a look at who they will likely be. It all starts with Travin Dural, he of 7 catches, will see a large jump in his targets. Dural in his limited opportunity took advantage by averaging 9.7 yards per target but he needs to improve his hands as a sophomore to be truly effective. Joining Dural will be five star freshman Malachi Dupre (awesome name) who has impressed this fall in camp and should be a big part of the game plan from week 1 on. There are a litany of four stars and high three stars in the wings as freshman but Dural, Dupre and a group of RS freshmen will probably be the bell cows. The offense is a work in progress but a great running game will certainly help stabilize the ship as the passing game and quarterbacks come along early in the season. Three defensive linemen are gone including both starting DTs Ego Ferguson and Anthony Johnson. To replace them are high three star sophomore Christian LaCouture, five star RS freshman Frank Herron, four star RS freshman Greg Gilmore and two four star freshmen who should be able even if in a rotation to replace the production of Ferguson and Johnson. On the outside both starters are back but they need to be much better at create pressure off the edge, because 7 sacks isn’t going to cut it. Lamin Barrow is gone at Will linebacker but he is replaced by Kwon Alexander a junior former four star recruit who played the SAM last year. The new SAM backer will be Lamar Louis another junior who will have sizeable but not unreplaceable shoes to fill. This should be a solid unit and Alexander and MLB Welter should be able to create some disruption in the backfield.  I’m not going to go into too much detail in the secondary because Miles and co. are ‘cruitin. Tre’Davious White will be a stud as he move into his sophomore year and bookends with Jalen Mills. When you look at the depth chart there are three four star sophomores, four four star sophomores and a four star junior and well it’s just a back four loaded with talent. The defense should be fine, if John Chavis has proven anything it is that he can coach a defense. The running game will be spectacular but the question is what if anything can they get out of the passing game. That being said I’d be surprised if they are outside the top three in the west. Head Coach: Les Miles (123-45) Since 2005

Auburn Tigers – (West, 12-2, 14, 8(Y), 68.5%, 6, 62.2%) Malzahn had one hell of a reintroduction to the SEC as he lead Auburn to a SEC championship and national title game in year one at the helm. Returning to the plains for his senior season is Nick Marshall. Marshall wasn’t the most accurate passer but at 59.4% completion percentage he wasn’t bad and a 7.2 yards per attempt is plenty good when combined with his 1193 rushing yards. At 7.8 yards per attempt clip Marshall ran Malzahn’s offense to a T in 2013. Marshall’s accomplice from 2013 is gone as Tre Mason moved on to the St. Louis Rams. Replacing 1800 yards from any one player is never easy but Auburn looks to be in pretty good position to do so. Seniors Cameron Artis-Payne and Corey Grant are back after averaging 6.7 and 9.8 yards per carry last season. Both will surely see regression with an increase in carries but both have pedigree (four star recruits) and some production to suggest the running game won’t regress too much. Add to those two five star freshman running back Roc Thomas and you have a possibility for this rushing attack to not miss a beat. There is potential to have an even better passing attack and threat in 2014. The top five receivers return lead by Sammie Coats who had 902 yards and averaged 11.3 yards per target. He only caught 52.5% of his targets but that was most likely due to the slight accuracy issues of Marshall and an abundance of deep passes that have a lesser chance of completion. WRs Ricardo Louis (Jr), Marcus Davis (So) and Quan Bray (Sr) who all were between 6.5 and 7.5 yards per target as you would expect from a spread attack with quick hit routes and 63.5% to 76.7% catch rates that you’d expect from talented players on shorter routes. Along with them is senior tight end C.J. Uzomah who went for 9.1 yards per target and gives them a creative option from in-line in the passing game. The line loses Greg Robinson but returns a bunch of experience and a 1^st team All-SEC center. On defense, Dee Ford is gone and with him 10.5 sacks and the next highest sack total belonged to Carl Lawson with 4 who went down with an ACL injury in spring but is attempting to be “healthy” for the season. Assuming Clawson doesn’t come back at full health or at all there is talent at DE but it’s mostly unproven. Starter senior LaDarius Owens is back but at 5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks he’s going to have to produce at a level he hasn’t shown yet in his college career. The highest upside may be sophomore four star Elijah Daniel who in limited time and just six tackles had 3 TFLs and 2.5 sacks. The new starting DT should be five star sophomore Montravius Adams and a group of talented young players that should be just fine in replacing those who left. The Linebackers should be very good as well in the 4-2-5. Both are back and both are junior starters returning from last season. Cassanova McKinzy is a former four star and Kris Frost is a former five star. Between them they need a bit more presence in the backfield but are solid options on a very good front six. The secondary loses a couple starters and a back-up at both safety positions but with very good recruiting and a shutdown corner back this group is very much capable of picking up the slack and being just as good in 2014 as they were in 2013. Jonathan Mincy is the key cog with 15 passes defensed but only 1 INTs should have a much more “productive” 2014 as far as takeaways are concerned. Auburn will be very good again in 2014 with good coaching but the close game luck is almost assuredly going to run out and that may doom them to a slightly underwhelming season in some eyes. Head Coach: Gus Malzahn (21-5) Since 2013

Georgia Bulldogs – (East, 8-5, 15, 5(N), 72.9%, 10, 75.5%) Aaron Murray is gone, but Hunter Mason was solid in a fill in role last season. Mason completed 61% completion percentage, an acceptable 7.8 yards per attempt and unfortunately a 6.8% sack rate. The best news for Mason is that Todd Gurley is back and should be the focal point of the offense. Gurley rushed for 6 yards a carry and almost a thousand yards in only 165 carries. An explosive runner Gurley is one of the best backs in the nation and should take a lot of pressure of Mason and the pass game. Keith Marshall is back off an injury that put a damper on the preseason hype around the pairing of Gurley and Marshall. This year add in sophomore Brendan Douglas and the Georgia backfield may be the deepest in the country and that doesn’t even consider five star freshman Sony Michel. Wide receiver should be loaded as well. Malcolm Mitchell is back after missing 2013 injured, along with seniors Chris Conley and Michael Bennett who both averaged at least nine yards a carry and were sure handed. If they stay healthy this receiving corps will be very good. If they don’t junior Justin Scott-Wesley, four star sophomore Reggie Davis and sophomore Blake Tibbs are all talented in waiting for their opportunity. Defense looks every bit as good as the offense does. Only two linemen are gone from last season. DEs Garrison Smith, a starter and DE John Taylor. The good news is despite Smith’s departure the other starter at end is still there and the junior Sterling Bailey saw plenty of time last year and should fill in nicely. NG is a bit shawllow with just junior Chris Mayes who missed two starts and senior Mark Thornton who didn’t see much time on the field. If Mayes gets injured again it will be interesting to see how Richt and company respond. Linebacker returns all four starters and the entire two deep which suggests that this will be a great group. The four starters combined for 269.5 tackles, 37.5 TFLs and 16 sacks and should build on that number with Jordan Jenkins in his junior year and Leonard Floyd growing and building off his freshman season. With a strong front seven the secondary should be able to weather some growing pains as they replace two starters and a plethora of depth chart players. If the group of RS freshmen can live up to the four star hype I think new coordinator Jeremy Pruitt should have plenty to work with to make this defense a heck of a unit. Overall there are some big questions, mainly, health, QB and DB but there is enough residual talent to presume this should be a very good Georgia team again this season. Head Coach: Mark Richt (126-45) Since 2001

South Carolina Gamecocks – (East, 11-2, 14, 8(N), 75.4%, 6, 68.8%) Hatin’ Ass Spurrier is back for another year at the helm of the Gamecocks. Connor Shaw is gone and despite an unheralded career he was a pretty solid quarterback. Dylan Thompson steps in, he improved his accuracy in 2013 but he was still much too inconsistent at 58% completion percentage. He was however very adept at avoiding sacks and that’s a skill along with another improvement in history that portends good things. The good news for Spurrier and Thompson is Mike Davis is back. At 5.8 yards per carry Davis rushed for almost 1200 yards last season and should be one of the best backs this side of Gurley in the SEC. Behind Davis are juniors Shon Carson (4.2 y/c) and Brandon Wilds (5.1 y/c) should be deep enough that an injury to Davis would be bad but not catastrophic. Bruce Ellington is gone and with him a reliable target with good hands and incredibly YAC (yards after catch). The good news is the corps of receivers is full of upperclassmen. Seniors Damiere Byrd and Nick Jones are back, Byrd being the big play threat whose catch rate at 54% is down because of deep balls and iffy hands and Jones who was the sure handed possession type but wasn’t a big play threat. Joining them and possibly the most important cog may be Shaq Roland. Rolland caught 62.5% of his targets and went for 11.4 yards per target. With an increased workload he should be able to at least replace part of Ellington along with Byrd. The other interesting piece is junior TE Jerell Adams who went for 10.4 yards per target in limited attempts last season. On the defensive line Clowney is gone and although his production wasn’t quite what we were expecting last year, offenses won’t need to double, triple and chip one of your ends every single play. That being said I think because of the Clowney effect I think the production of Quarles and Sutton are eminently replaceable. The other good news is that a lot of players got good playing time in 2013 and although it’s a young line it’s experienced. J.T. Surratt should retain his starting spot this year after a 4 TFLs and 1.5 sacks. DE should be a rotation of four juniors and sophomores who all were high three stars and showed flashes of good production last season. DT should be deep with Surratt and three players including two former four stars filling out the two deep. The entirety of the linebacking corps is back combined with high four star freshman Bryson Allen-Williams this should be one of the best and stoutest units in the country let alone the conference, led by Skai Moore. Moore the WLB had 43 tackles and four INTs as a freshman and should only get better. In the secondary, the safeties should be stellar with the entire two deep being back and experience. The problem is a good secondary loses the top three corners from last season and only two players have returning experience. The good news is there are two high three star corners waiting in the wings and three four star freshman who were brought on campus and may be able to work into a rotation based on talent alone. The defense should be very good once again, with an extremely talented linebacking corps, a line that could be better than expected and a secondary that will have great safety play and needs young players to step up outside. The offense should be good behind a very good run game with Davis and Dylan Thompson has enough promise to make you think the offense shouldn’t take too much of a step back. This looks like a division winning squad and a potential conference champ, but the latter will assuredly need everything to break right. Head Coach: Steve Spurrier (219-79-2) Since 2005

Mississippi Rebels – (West, 8-5, 15, 6(Y), 57.8%, 9, 81.7%) Dr. Bo, is back for another sesason at the helm for the Ole Miss offense under the tutelage of Hugh Freeze. Bo completed 64.8% percent of his passes for 6.9 yards per attempt. Being a mobile quarterback Dr. Bo takes a lot of sacks (5.2% sack rate) and needs to learn to get rid of the ball when leaving the pocket. Along with Bo’s passing is his rushing at 4.8 yards per carry he is an effective threat as a QB but not as explosive as some runners we have seen in the SEC. Joining Bo in the backfield are Juniors Jalen Walton and I’Tavius Mathers. Walton averaged 4.7 yards per attempt in 2013, compared to Mathers and his 5.9 he wasn’t nearly as effective. If we include Mark Dodson in this race at 5.6 yards per attempt, Walton looks like at best the second best running back option and quite possibly the third best option in the backfield. Walton for his part was by far the best back on the team at 8.7 yards per target compared to Mathers 6 yards a target. The receiving corps lost three of the top five WRs including Donte Moncrief but they return a five star sophomore (Laquon Treadwell), a former four star senior with a 70% catch rate (Vince Sanders), and four star sophomore slot receiver (Quincy Adeboyejo). Of those with 20 catches or more only Sanders and sophomore TE Evan Engram had greater than 6.5 yards per catch. That isn’t too concerning as the offensive system is based on quick passes and options to put the defense in poor position. Treadwell should be the key. He was good as a freshman, but if he can become an even better playmaker in year two no one will miss Donte Moncrief. A very good run defense line loses it’s starting DEs, but has ridiculous depth in the middle which should keep the run stopping level high. The key to it all is sophomore phenom DT Robert Nkemdiche, a five star prospect he recorded 29.5 tackles, 8 TFLs and 2 sacks in his freshman season in the SEC. The biggest question is pass rush. Last year’s line only had 12 sacks all year, but only lost 4 which could be a signal that there is growth in the front four. If the pass rush isn’t there that limits what can be done in the back seven on passing downs. Even with this issues this should still be a very good front if only because of Nkemdiche. Serderius Bryant is back for his senior year after 65 tackles (12.5 TFLs) in just 11 games last year. Fellow senior D.T. Shackleford also returns at MLB after 32.5 tackles last year (7.5 TFLs). The two of them should be able to batten down the linebacking corps and produce behind a stout defensive line. The secondary should be one of the best in the conference. After finishing 27 against the pass they return the top seven DBs from last season and any improvement up front is going to make this passing defense even better. It all hinges on FS Cody Prewitt, with 60.5 tackles and 13 passes defensed his control of the deep middle will be the controlling feature of the defense. This could be Ole Miss’s season to make some noise. With the good recruiting classes recently, they have a couple year window, but Dr. Bo is in his senior year along with some key cogs in the back seven which means the Rebels need to not waste what looks like their best team since Eli left. Head Coach: Hugh Freeze (45-18) Since 2012

Texas A&M Aggies – (West, 9-4, 15, 6(N), 35.4%, 9, 59.7%) Johnny Manziel is gone but Kevin Sumlin is still there and fills the Manziel shoes with four star sophomore Kenny Hill is an accurate passer and fleet of foot and should fit into Sumlin’s philosophy just fine and with the returning talent, how much of a drop off will there be. The backfield around Hill should be experienced and at worst not a hindrance to a good to great offense. Tra Carson (Jr), Trey Williams (Jr) and Brandon Williams (Jr) are an excellent trio. Carson saw the most carries and had the worst yards per carry at 5.3 yards per carry, Trey Williams had four less carries but averaged 7 yards per carry and did a great job of taking advantage of good blocking. Lastly, Brandon Williams had 44 carries and averaged 6.1 yards per carry and makes up a good trio. Running back brings back a bunch of talent but wide receiver got hit hard by attrition. Mike Evans is gone after being one of the most dominant receivers in the country. With Evans, Derel Walker and Travis Labhart who combined for 1444 yards are also gone. Returning to catch passes from Kenny Hill are, last year’s second most targeted receiver Malcome Kennedy. Kennedy had a 70% catch rate, 7.7 yards per target and 650 yards receiving and should be suited well enough for the number one role. To pick up the slack are a pair of four star sophomores, LaQuvionte Gonzalez and Edward Pope, who need to take a step forward in their second year in the system. Behind that are a RS freshman high four star Kyrion Parker, five star freshman Speedy Noil (watch him) and four star freshman Frank Iheanacho. This should be a good receiving corps this year and a potentially great one next year. Jake Matthews is gone but Ogbuehi moves to LT and the rest of the line should be very good and very experienced and the third straight very good line in College Station. The defense shouldn’t get much worse this year and the level of talent they brought in should mean at worst a slight rise in level of play and for the sake of A&M a nice little jump in production. On the line, a bunch of sophomores got considerable playing time last year in the A&M defense and that experience should be a net positive this season and beyond. Juniors and sophomores populate the two deep headlined by four star sophomore RUSH end Deshon Hall. The biggest impacts could be four star sophomore NG Hardreck Walker who needs to be a force at the one technique if this line is going to be better. There is hope abound on the line with another class of four and five star players coming in the talent says this is a group that is trending up. The linebackers better hope that the line gets better otherwise there will be a lot of tackles available for players that haven’t seen bulk field time. The linebackers should be all high three star sophomores and good players but will they gel early and be good enough to fill the gaps if the line doesn’t produce? The secondary should be pretty good with the duo of Deshazor Everett and De’Vante Harris at CB and Howard Matthews at safety, the group of which had 27 passes defensed, six of which were INTs. Whomever fills the open safety role is going to be an upperclassman with good pedigree. Behind that the two deep is filled with talented sophomores and intriguing freshmen suggesting this should be a pretty good unit. The defense should get better but it is dependent on growth from a young front seven and especially a front four that hasn’t shown great pass rush ability. The offense is going to be very good again and should see the assimilation of Kenny Hill in a smooth transition. Overall a good team but in a deep division it probably isn’t enough. Head Coach: Kevin Sumlin (55-23) Since 2012

Florida Gators – (East, 4-8, 14, 7(Y), 69.3%, 7, 67.2%) What to do with Florida? Muschamp has been here since 2011 and oversaw a complete collapse after a better than expected 2012. 2013 was bad even before the loss to Georgia Southern and that was the cherry on top of the injury and shit sundae that was last season. Kurt Roper was brought in to run the offense and at worst should be an upgrade to the group of monkeys typing Shakespeare that called the 2013 plays. Roper and Muschamp have named Jeff Driskel (Sr) the starter and there are some things in Driskel’s favor. 69% completion percentage, 6.8 yards per attempt are both good numbers although the later isn’t exactly stellar. If Roper can bring some of the productivity that his Duke offense had Driskel good be productive if not spectacular behind center for Florida this year. A trio of running backs are back for 2014, senior Mack Brown, sophomore Kelvin Taylor and junior Matt Jones are all back and at least for Taylor there is optimism. 4.6 yards per carry in your freshman year in the SEC behind an oddly inept offensive line should be considered a positive for any back and in a good enough 4.3 for Jones and you might have a halfway decent running game in Gainesville this season. No receiver had more than 550 yards or 40 catches and that is partially to blame on equal parts, poor QB play, poor offensive line play and questionable playcalling. The roster is loaded with talent, much of it blue chip but of the top three returning WRs no one had a catch rate below 66% but only Quinton Dunbar (9.3) had greater than 5.1 yards per target. The passing game can’t be worse and with Roper at the helm has a lot of talent and room to grow. As we move to the defense remember that Florida had an NSFW level of injuries on defense in 2013. Dom Easley was lost after playing in 3 games and only two line starters played in all 12. There is however talent galore in the front four for Florida. Former five stars, BUCK end Dante Fowler Jr and DT Jonathan Bullard are back after leading the line in tackles last year. Fowler is going to be the spark that ignites the defense after a 10.5 TFLs and 3.5 sack sophomore year. If he can disrupt the pass even more as a junior he will be one of the best linemen in the country. Seniors Leon Orr and Darious Cummings are back to split time at NT and should be just as stout as 2013 when they combined for 31 tackles and 3.5 sacks. At DE the competition is a high three star sophomore (Bryan Cox Jr), a four star sophomore (Joey Ivie), a four star RS freshman (Jordan Sherit and a four star freshman (Gerald Willis). That combination should produce at least one and more likely multiple excellent rotation options both at DE and BUCK. Inside to back up the three previously listed are two four star RS freshman and two four star freshman. This front should be really good if it only sniffs its collective potential with the opportunity to be so much more. Two starters return at LB and both had at least 41 tackles but neither was a disruptive force behind the line and that’s a bit of a concern. They made stops but if you’re only making plays behind your own defensive line that’s a problem. At SAM linebacker a couple of highly touted sophomores have the opportunity to add that spark but even without the disruption in the backfield this should be a stout and experienced linebacking corps. Five star sophomore Vernon Hargreaves III is back and should be paired with four star RS freshman Marcell Harris or five star freshman Jalen Tabor and this should be a very secondary once again but they just need to play up to their talent level and this is a top 20 at worst secondary and defense. Overall the offense is the key for Florida if Kurt Roper can work his magic Florida should rebound, maybe not all the way, but most of the way. Head Coach: Will Muschamp (22-16) Since 2011

Mississippi State Bulldogs – (West, 7-6, 16, 8(Y), 82.4%, 8, 81.4%) I’ll admit I’m not sure I will ever have the preseason ranking of the Mississippi State right. But with 80% of the production returning on both sides and Dak Prescott coming back I think they deserve to be in the tier of dark horses and dream crushers. Dak is bak. (I’m sorry I couldn’t help it) And that is the main source of optimism. After sharing snaps during 2013 with Tyler Russel the job is all Dak’s and he needs to improve. In 2014 Dak is going to need to improve his consistency, especially against above average defenses, from his 58.4% completion percentage and with that should come an increase in his yards per attempt from 6.8. Dak didn’t take saks (I promise I’ll stop) last season and that ability could be key in keeping him healthy and Miss State pulling upsets. Dak is also the leading returning rusher, with 7.1 yards per carry and around 900 yards on 125 carries he should be an explosive element but what else is there in the run game? Josh Robinson is back after rushing for 5.9 per carry in 2013 he should assume the lead role where he will be spelled by sophomore Ashton Shumpert who ran for 4.1 yards a carry but doesn’t have that explosive element to make something out of nothing. So the combination of Robinson and Prescott should be pretty solid in the run game but who’s on the receiving end for the Bulldogs? The top four options from 2013 are back. And the only one that doesn’t inspire much is senior Robert Johnson who despite having the second most targets only averaged 6.7 per target which was lowest among the four with 45 targets or more by at least a half yard. Senior WR Jameon Lewis is a speedy undersized option that went for 9.1 yards per target last season. Sophomore WR De’Runnya Wilson is the big 6’5” target that had a productive freshman year and with better hands should be a great weapon for Prescott. Add in there senior TE Malcolm Johnson and his 8.1 yards per target and you have a pretty solid group of pass catchers for Dak to get better throwing to. If the top group falters there are a gaggle of high three star sophomores waiting in the wings for their shot. On defense, woo hoo hoo is this iteration of the always stingy Dan Mullen defense gonna be fun up front. Only DE Denico Autry is gone of the major producers from last year’s group that was 19^th in F+ and 18 yards per game. The front four is populated with four seniors, a junior and three sophomores and they are all looking to build on a pretty exciting 2013. DE Preston Smitih (Sr) and DT Chris Jones (So) are back after a combined 13.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks and are joined by a pair of former four star seniors who had 4.5 TFls and a sack combined. The replacement for Autry is either high three star sophomore A.J. Jefferson who had 4 TFLs and 2 sacks in a back-up role or junior Ryan Brown who had 2.5 TFLs and 1 sack in even more limited time. If they continue to grow and coalesce this should be a hell of a front four rotation once again and the basis for one hell of a defense (note that one I took from section 6 of the Bill Connelly preview). Behind them Deontae skinner is gone after a very good 2013 but that shouldn’t hurt too badly. Benardick McKinney is back after 56 tackles, 7 TFLs and 3.5 sacks. Matthew Wells is back for his senior season after 39 tackles and 6 TFLs and a couple sophomores who saw enough time to get 27 tackles a piece and a combined 7.5 TFLs and 2 sacks. (Beniquez Brown and Richie Brown) This linebacking corps should be as good or better as a group of young players continue to grow. Much Like the linebackers the secondary is losing one starter from last season and once again I am not too worried about the loss. Justin Cox should fill the role just fine and did well in fill in work in 2013. SS Kendrick Market is an aggressive player and a tackling machine and should be even better in his junior season. Corner back goes four deep with experience from last season led by Taveze Calhoun and Jamerson Love who combined for 17 passes defensed and should be lockdown options on the outside. The longer I went into this preview the more I liked what I saw but until they bust through it there is always a glass ceiling on the Bulldogs but 2014 could be the year they put real fear back into the SEC West once again. Head Coach: Dan Mullen (36-28) Since 2009

Editor’s Note: The esteemed Mr. Kriha joined again to write about 2013's second biggest surprise.

Missouri Tigers – (East, 12-2, 9, 5(N), 35.4%, 4, 52.1%) One year ago Mizzou shocked the world by going 11-1 in the regular season and making it to the championship game in toughest division in the land despite being a relatively new entry to the conference. The Tigers went on to lose the SEC championship to national runner-up Auburn but went on to beat #13 Oklahoma State in their bowl game. The one regular season loss was a double overtime loss to South Carolina, the best team in the state despite what Clemson fans would have you believe, in a game started by then backup Quarterback Maty Mauk. One-T Maty entered the Georgia game after an injury to future Penn St Head Coach James Franklin and held on for the win and then proceeded to go 3-1 as a starter in Franklin’s stead. Mauk loses top wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham whose history with drugs and pushing women down stairs earned him a spot on Oklahoma’s roster, but he does have a receiver named DeSean which is a very promising sign. The defense was decimated by the loss of several All-SEC players including the first openly homosexual NFLer, Michael Sam who is the only one to publicly acknowledge how much he likes getting in piles of men wearing spandex even though we know they all like it. The defense will need some youngsters to step up and while Mauk has been the focus of most people’s attention, it’s the defensive unit that will determine if Mizzou can back up its performance from a year ago. The Tigers have a couple tough road tests in Columbia and College Station as well as a marquee home game against Georgia, but can pad their record at home against the likes of the South Dakota Jackrabbits and the perennially awful Indiana Hoosiers. The highlight of their schedule is a sightseeing trip to Toledo to see the infamous Jambulance (http://www.tailgatingideas.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/jambulance_parked.jpg). My prediction: Tigers and their ridiculous array of uniforms take a step back from last year and go 9-3 in the regular season and earn an appearance in the prestigious Belk Bowl. Head Coach: Gary Pinkel (175-100-3) Since 2001

Tennessee Volunteers – (East, 5-7, 10, 5(Y), 67.7%, 5, 69.1%) Butch Jones enters year two at the helm of Tennessee and is coming off an offseason in which they brought in a top ten recruiting class and started what looks like a top ten class for 2015. Looking toward the 2014 season Justin Worley is back under center but needs to stay healthy and be much more consistent in his abilities. 55.6% completion percentage isn’t going to do much for the offense, but if he can continue to not take sacks behind a brand new offensive line then he should be at worst a net positive. Joining Worley in the backfield are seniors Marlin Lane and Deanthonie Summerhill. Lane returns with the most carries from last year at 101 and did well with his opportunity, putting up 5.3 yards per carry. Summerhill only had 20 carries but was productive at 5.8 yards per carry. Even if both lose some production with increased workloads they should be productive enough to stabilize the offense. Jalen Hurd is the ace in the hole for the running game, if the five star freshman can contribute at a high level in year one this rush attack could be much better than just keeping the offense a float. A young receiver corps returns, talented and deep. Pig Howard (Jr), Marquez North (So), Josh Smith (So) and Jason Croom (So) are back and should grow but consistent QB play and continued playmaking by North and Croom are needed to make this passing game truly something scary. I single out North and Croom because they were both over 8 yards a target last year. The entire offense and the growth of younger players is based on how well the offense line becomes a cohesive unit with no returning starters. There is young talent here with a gaggle of four stars and high three star recruits but there are just six career starts and five of those are LG Marcus Jackson. As we progress to the other side of the ball the defensive line falls into the same trap as the offensive line. Six players who saw time are gone including the top five players from last year’s line. The good news is 2012 starter Curt Maggitt is back after missing all of 2013 with an injury, but he produced 5 TFLs and 2 sacks that two years ago. There are a couple bright spots returning, well maybe not bright but there is some experience combing back. Maggit we already talked about. Four star sophomore NG Danny O’Brien had 3 TFLs and a sack in a back-up role as a freshman. Fellow sophomore Corey Vereen had a sack in nine appearances as the fourth DE his freshman year. And then there are four four star recruits coming into the program as well as two high three stars that should at least challenge for some playing time. Linebacker lost a lot as well with four of the top six performers no longer with the program but senior A.J. Johnson returning after a 83 tackle season should be a rock on which to build the front seven. Joining him with time from last season is sophomore Jalen Reeves-Martin who played in 11 games but didn’t see much time behind Dontavis Sapp as a freshman. The biggest question here is who plays SLB but there is some talent in the wings. The secondary returns every starter, but do lose their nickel back (NB) and back up free safety. If the four starters can build off a very good performance last season then this could be a good secondary hampered at least early by a poor front four. Also they brought in five four star DBs and that should be a real boon for them real soon. Tennessee could be alright this year but should show signs of proper coaching and top ten recruiting in 2015 and beyond. Head Coach: Butch Jones (55-34) Since 2013

Arkansas Razorbacks – (West, 3-9, 15, 7(Y), 81.1%, 8, 66.7%) Bert’s first season in the SEC didn’t quite go as well as he expected. That’s partially contributed to a team not suited to his style, the known teambuilding woes of Petrino and a loaded SEC west. The task doesn’t get easier in 2014 but the roster is starting to look familiar. Brandon Allen is back, much to the chagrin of the Hogville. Allen completed 49.6% of his passes last season for 5.6 yards per attempt. The good news? He was only sacked on 2.6% of his drop backs. In a vacuum Allen is what you want in Bielema’s system a junior four star quarterback back for his second year under center but that assumes a level of success in the SEC that Allen hasn’t come close to approaching. If things get bad there are two RS freshmen high three stars and Rafe Peavey a four star freshman who could at least see some time to give the fan base hope. As we move to running back we see a group reminiscent of the Wisconsin backfields. Four Star sophomore Alex Collins returns for his sophomore campaign looking to improve on his 5.4 yards per carry and 1026 yard freshman campaign. He is the offense but he will share the load with junior Jonathan Williams who ran for 900 yards on 6 yards a carry. The third man in the rotation is sophomore Korliss Marshall who broke away for 8.6 yards a carry on a couple handful of carries last season. Who’s going to catch passes? The better question is do we know who has the talent with the inaccuracy of Allen. If Allen can even marginally improve let alone become much more consistent WR Keon Hatcher and TE Hunter Henry look to have a bit of talent to make plays. Henry despite a catch rate under 57% still was able to average 8.3 yards per target and Hatcher at 53% was at 6.8 yards per target. A couple more completions and both are at least a reasonable threat that defenses need to accommodate for. The line is good young and talented and should be just fine and continues to show the molding of the Hogs like the Badgers. Three of the top five linemen are gone from a unit that wasn’t very good, everyone else is back. And oh boy are there a lot of sophomores that saw playing time in 2013. Senior DE Trey Flowers is back after 13.5 TFLs and 5 sacks and a fair amount of passing game disruption and is joined by sophomore DT Darius Phillips who looks like he could be one of the better young DTs in the conference. Aside from those two there is a group of four sophomore, three of them DEs and a junior DT who showed flashes last season but were either too young or didn’t get much rotation time. IF the youth grows into new roles, there isn’t much place to go but up for this unit outside the pass rush game but this unit might still be a year off. The linebackers should be solid. Seniors Braylon Mitchell and Martrell Spaight should be holding down the SLB and MLB respectively. The stud could be sophomore Brooks Ellis who had 22.5 tackles, 2 TLFs and .5 sacks in limited time behind Jarrett Lake and shouldn’t have too much trouble being more of a force in the backfield with increased playing time. This could be a pretty good unit but may need to big up too much slack from an inexperienced front. The secondary should be the best part of this defense. FS Eric Bennet is gone after 54 tackles and 4 passes defensed, but he is the only loss from the secondary. Non-coincidently this is the most senior unit on the defense with two senior starters a junior and a sophomore with two juniors, one senior and a sophomore in the two deep. IF they can build off good disruption from last year this could be a very good group on a defense that has a lot of holes. 2014 may not see an increase in record but should be a step forward for Bielema and the Hogs and set up for a bit of a breakthrough in 2015. Head Coach: Bret Bielema (71-33) Since 2013

Vanderbilt Commodores – (East, 9-4, 10, 7(N), 37.8%, 3, 48.4%) James Franklin has moved on from the Commodores after reaching heights not glimpsed since the 40s. In comes Derek Mason, Stanford defensive coordinator to help continue the success and build a lasting program in the mold of Stanford. By all accounts Mason is a young, energetic football crazed coach who has the passion and skills to do that at Vandy, but I’m not convinced the transition is going to be smooth early on in the Mason era. Year one of the Mason era starts with changes under center. Austyn Carta-Samuels is gone and in steps sophomore Patton Robinette, a former three star recruit who looked like a freshmen in the limited amount of snaps he saw last season. If Robinette can increase his consistency while not losing the deep ball and make smart decisions in the running game he could be a boon for the new staff. That admittedly is a lot to ask from a sophomore. The running back situation is a lot of good and little explosion. All three returning backs were in the 4.5 yards per carry range and both Jerron Seymour (5’7”) and Brian Kimbrow (5’8”) are undersized. Mason will probably try to model the offense off Stanford and if that’s the case are undersized backs going to stand up to the workload and stay healthy? The receiving corps is depleted with the departures of Jordan Matthews and Jonathan Krause (2191 yards combined) there is a lot of opportunity and a lot of questions. Into the void steps four star sophomore Jordan Cunningham who was the third leading receiver on the team, had good enough hands, but didn’t really flash as a down the field threat. Joining him are Junior Kris Kentera who needs to work on hands consistency and high three star sophomore Latevius Rayford who caught two thirds of his targets and flashed some deep threat ability. The line is experienced heading into year one but the production in the running game didn’t show up last year and growth must occur in the unity. The defense is in transition from 4-3 under Franklin to the 3-4 under Mason but they seem to be in good shape up front much like Wisconsin last season under Gary Anderson. Adam Butler returns for his sophomore year and moves to the 3-4 DE and at 6’5” 305 should be perfectly suited for his new role. Inside 6’4” 295 senior Barron Dixon fits more of a DE build but fellow senior Vince Taylor at 6’1” 310 should be an anchor. The breakout inside could be Nifae Lealao at 6’5” 314 four star freshman who could be THE anchor for three or four seasons insisde for Mason. Across from Butler if it isn’t Dixon there may be a rotation of similarily younger players both at 280 and 6’3” to 6’4” in Torey Agree (So) and Jay Woods (RSFr). There are a lot of linebackers on this team… based on depth chart there are 14 linebackers on the roster. The good news is there is a lot of experience. The bad news is that they don’t have a lot in this system but converted DEs Kyle Woestmann and Caleb Azubike combined for 10 sacks last season and if they adjust to rushing from the upright position they should be beastly off the edge. Inside Darreon Herring is back and had a heck of a season in any scheme and Jake Sealand showed flashes in limited time in the middle and will need to step into a much bigger role this season. Rebuilding while transitioning has pros and cons. The pros are you don’t have to gradually transfer a unit to the new system but the cons are that there isn’t much seniority to work with. The Vandy secondary should be closer to the pros than the cons the five returners who saw time last season are all sophomores or juniors and the two deep is full of redshirt freshmen who are high three star recruits. Overall this group may have growing pains from youth but the cupboard is stocked well from the franklin era and the defense looks primed to grow under Mason’s tutelage. Every unit has some challenges both on offense and defense but even if 2014 is a rough year this is a team looking up in the future. Head Coach: Derek Mason (0-0) Since New Hire

Kentucky Wildcats – (East, 2-10, 16, 8(Y), 58.3%, 8, 74.3%) Year 0 of the Mark Stoops ear went like you’d expect. While they build up the roster through recruiting there are going to be bumps along the road but a top-20 recruiting class is a great start. Maxwell Smith started last year, but was replaced by Jalen Whitlow who transferred out of the program this offseason. Smith was the presumed starter, but this week Mark Stoops announced that the week 1 job is going to Patrick Towles. Towles redshirted last season after losing the starter competition to Smith/Whitlow but came into camp and won the job over Smith and four star freshman Drew Barker. All reports point to Towles growing over his year off and being the best quarterback throughout camp. If Towles can improve upon the roughly 60% completion percentage and 5.5 yards per attempt of Smith/Whitlow last season this offense should be able to move from below average to at worst an average or slightly above average product this year. The backfield is a bit decimated but sophomore Jojo Kemp is back and with the growth curve from freshman to sophomore looks primed to pop above 5 yards per attempt in 2014. The wildcard here is how transfer Braylon Heard from Nebraska performs in the Kentucky offense. Heard averaged 6.7 yards per carry on 52 carries for the huskers in 2012 and could be a boon for the backfield production. The receiving corps is is a mix of youth and seniority and a mixed bag of alright production. Some of this is definitely on the inconsistency at quarterback last season and some on the offensive system but sub seven yards per target is pretty meh. Let’s look toward the future though. Sophomores Ryan Timmons, Jeff Badet and Alexander Montgomery are saw 25 or more targets and had 64% catch rates or better. With continued growth all should be close to the 70% mark as they enter their junior and senior seasons but may not be ready just yet to make the leap heading into second year campaigns. Add in the two four star freshmen, Dorian Baker and Blake Bone this is a passing game that should only be looking up in the future. On the defensive line starting ends Alvin Dupree and Za’Darius Smith are back for their senior season and are looking to build off a combined 16 TFLs and 13 sacks. Behind them is sophomore Jason Hatcher, a former four star, who had 3 TFLS and 2 sacks in just 9 games has to have the coaching staff intrigued about what he can do as he continues to grow. The interior of the line is going to be iffy though as none of the top three options return this season. In fact, there was only one lineman on the squad that saw any game time at all. Those behind and next to Mike Douglas on the depth chart don’t inspire much confidence as they include 1 senior, 2 juniors and 2 redshirt freshmen, neither of whom was highly touted coming out of high school. Linebacker has a wealth of experience returning and should be solid enough but Avery Williamson’s 74 tackles aren’t going to be replaced by one man. On a rebuilding team a wealth of experience in one unit is always helpful. Much like the team as a whole, the secondary has nowhere to go but up. The question is, with ten players returning who played last year and sixty percent of those being upperclassmen how much improvement can we expect with the same players on the field. All in all Kentucky is at least a year from scaring people and two from doing major damage but there are positive signs. Just not for 2014. Head Coach: Mark Stoops (2-10) Since 2013

2014 Predicted Standings

East: 1) South Carolina 2) Georgia 3) Florida 4) Missouri 5) Tennessee 6) Vanderbilt 7) Kentucky

West: 1) Alabama 2) Auburn 3) LSU 4) Ole Miss 5) Mississippi State 6) Texas A&M 7) Arkansas

The West is stronger again than the east but South Carolina and Georgia are both more than capable of knocking off any of the top four West teams. LSU and Florida are interesting dark horses to watch as the season goes on, if LSU can stabilize at QB and Florida can stop getting hurt and find an offensive identity both have recruited well enough to be elite in conference and country.