2016 NFL Draft WR Top Fifteen & TE Top Ten

I have a very divergent opinion on this wide receiver class from most of what I’ve read so far heading into the draft. Yes there isn’t a once in a generation talent but I see a lot of receivers that should be in starting lineups within a couple of seasons. If you need a WR in this draft you should be able to find a player that fits a role and will be able to help you out.

Overall	Player	Team	Ht	Wt	Role	Grade
11	Doctson, Josh	TCU	74	202	Starter	7.6
19	Treadwell, Laquon	Mississippi	74	221	Starter	7.5
29	Thomas, Michael	Ohio State	74.75	212	Starter	7.3
30	Shepard, Sterling	Oklahoma	70.25	194	Starter	7.3
31	Coleman, Corey	Baylor	70.625	194	Starter	7.3
38	Fuller, Will	Notre Dame	72.125	186	Starter	7.2
49	Caroo, Leonte	Rutgers	71.875	211	Eventual Starter	7.0
50	Miller, Braxton	Ohio State	73.375	201	Eventual Starter	7.0
70	Thomas, Mike	Southern Miss	73	200	Eventual Starter	6.7
76	Mitchell, Malcolm	Georgia	71.625	198	Eventual Starter	6.6
98	Boyd, Tyler	Pittsburgh	73.5	197	Eventual Starter	6.3
99	Spruce, Nelson	Colorado	73.125	206	Eventual Starter	6.3
105	Moore, Chris	Cincinnati	73	206	Eventual Starter	6.2
110	Payton, Jordan	UCLA	73.125	207	Eventual Starter	6.1
125	Cajuste, Devon	Stanford	75.75	234	Potential Starter	5.9

Let’s start at the top where I, like many lately, have Josh Doctson above Laquan Treadwell. No, this doesn’t mean that I hate Treadwell, really like him and he was a joy to watch in college but I just like Doctson’s skill set a bit better. I think Doctson is more consistent at high pointing the ball, has better speed, and they are comparable as route runners giving Doctson the slight edge. And yes I know about Treadwell’s blocking ability, I don’t care, it’s nice to have but it doesn’t really sway my ranks that far. All that to say I like both a lot. Moving on to a trio of receivers who all have the same grade, but a diverse range of skill sets. Michael Thomas has the first tie-breaker of the trio and it has to do with body type and the way he wins. Thomas is that big body receiver you envision as a primary target, he does a very good job of controlling his body, and although he’s not a blazer he’s a good enough athlete to create separation in routes and mismatches in the open field. He didn’t get the work you’d want to see at Ohio State but Urban Meyer and company start on the ground and go to the air when necessary. The next player in the trio is Sterling Shepard, who may be the most complete and NFL ready player in the draft. Shepard is the best route runner in the draft, with sure hands and a tough streak the only thing that he lacks is height and that’s only so much of a concern when you can do the things mid-route that he does. The last of the trio is Corey Coleman who comes from a Baylor system that uses wideouts a bit differently than just about everyone else. When the play was not going to the WRs side (pass or run), the Baylor receivers are told to not go full speed to conserve their energy as the Baylor offense looks to run a lot of plays. Coleman is a burner, but much like the next on WR on the list he does have some issues with drops. Whether that’s a problem like Ty Montgomery (apparently fixable) or more like that WR whose name you no longer remember is yet to be seen. Coleman has upside, but with a little more development than Shepard or Thomas he loses the tie-breaker. Behind those ranked starters are a pair who truly embody the opposite ends of the spectrum. Leonte Carroo is a player who just does everything well. He doesn’t have a trait that pops as elite but he doesn’t have a fatal flaw or major weakness that you can point to and say that he’s going to fail because of it. Braxton Miller on the other hand played one year of receiver at Ohio State after playing QB for the first three seasons before shoulder troubles made continuing at QB untenable. Miller is raw, but he’s an explosive athlete with a knack for how to use his athleticism in space, and an awareness of how plays develop that comes from years of playing quarterback. Miller is going to need to work hard to refine his skills but the flashes seen in 2015 at Ohio State are really exciting. Behind Carroo & Miller is a mini-tier of two prospects before a bit of a drop-off. Those two receivers are a pair of athletic freaks who have both gone under the radar through most of the draft season. The first is Mike Thomas out of Southern Miss. A combine snub, Thomas is a big bodied, long receiver who wins well at the catch point and has overblown drops issues. He’s a dynamic playmaker, who needs refinement but he has near the highest upside in the class. The other player is Malcolm Mitchell. I know Mitchell from games I’ve watched of Georgia’s over the past couple of seasons and I like him a lot. Mitchell didn’t produce the way you want, but much like the Ohio State duo it has more to do with a grounded offense, and in Georgia’s case, atrocious QB play than Mitchell. These two both will have impacts by year 2 and possibly before. As we move outside the top ten into our final five receivers of my number 11 receiver is a player who I’ve gone back and forth on how high or low he should be. Tyler Boyd is a player who produced well for the dearth of quarterback options around him. Boyd isn’t a great athlete, he didn’t outshine his QB situation, but he does do a pretty good job at the catch point, is above average on his routes, and finds ways to get open. So yeah, he’s good at a good number of things, but doesn’t flash athletically and isn’t as developed as some would have you believe. I think I like him, but I won’t know how to feel when he’s drafted. Nelson Spruce is a lesser version of Shepard from earlier, just 3 inches taller and a bit less flashy. Spruce is a quick twitch space player who was extremely productive on bad Colorado teams. Spruce should be able to help out in the slot right away. He’s Jordan Matthews for me. My last three WR are all upside guys for me. Chris Moore is a burner who even in a high volume offense still put up 12.6 yards per target. Watching Moore’s tape you see a tough player, willing to go up take a hit and still come down with the ball. Moore needs to get better at refining his routes but he really impressed me and should be a useful 2 or 3 for someone in the NFL. Jordan Payton and Devon Cajuste are a pair of Pac-12 guys with promise. We’ll start with the lower rated Cajuste is the biggest receiver of my top 15 and one of the biggest in this year’s class. Cajuste converts his size into power with enough speed and body control to be a very good big bodied number 2. Lastly, Payton. I may be too low on him. He’s a very well rounded receiver with good hands and route running. He produced very well on while catching passes from a true freshman QB in 2015. Payton isn’t a freak twitch athlete but he converts power into speed well enough vertically to be a problem for corners.

Overall there’s some upside here, but more importantly I think there’s a deep group, with diverse skill sets, and relatively high ceilings on the group in general.

I’ll add the top ten for the tight ends here. I find them tough to balance blocking and receiving. Henry & Hooper are the only ones I’m sure on. After that, it’s a crap shoot to me.

Overall	Player	Team	Ht	Wt	Role	Grade
34	Henry, Hunter	Arkansas	76.875	250	Starter	7.5
65	Hooper, Austin	Stanford	75.75	254	Eventual Starter	7.0
79	Duarte, Thomas	UCLA	74	231	Eventual Starter	6.8
91	Vannett, Nick	Ohio State	78	257	Eventual Starter	6.6
96	Williams, Bryce	East Carolina	77.75	257	Eventual Starter	6.5
109	Higbee, Tyler	WKU	78	249	Eventual Starter	6.3
117	Braunecker, Ben	Harvard	75.375	250	Eventual Starter	6.2
169	Sandland, Beau	Montana State	76.5	253	Potential Starter	5.8
181	Scheu, Steven	Vanderbilt	76.5	253	Potential Starter	5.7
221	Weiser, Matt	Buffalo	77	255	Potential Starter	5.5

2016 NFL Draft RB Top Ten : Also FB Top Five

This year’s crop of RBs much like the QB is deep, but unlike the quarterback position there’s upside here. In fact there is quite a bit to like in this year’s class. In my top ten I have two players I think can make an impact immediately, three more I think have a chance to start in the right situation, three more that will be hammers in a tandem early in their careers, a former WR with monster upside, and a receiving back that will be a joy to watch in return game and has more upside to be a complete back than given credit for.

Overall	Player	Team	Ht	Wt	Role	Grade
15	Elliott, Ezekiel	Ohio State	71.75	225	Starter	7.6
47	Henry, Derrick	Alabama	74.5	247	Starter	7.1
52	Dixon, Kenneth	Louisiana Tech	70.5	222	Eventual Starter	7.0
66	Prosise, C.J.	Notre Dame	72.5	220	Eventual Starter	6.8
74	Perkins, Paul	UCLA	70.375	208	Eventual Starter	6.7
81	Booker, Devontae	Utah	70.75	219	Eventual Starter	6.6
88	Collins, Alex	Arkansas	70	217	Eventual Starter	6.5
102	Howard, Jordan	Indiana	71.875	230	Eventual Starter	6.3
107	Williams, Jonathan (2014)	Arkansas	71	220	Eventual Starter	6.2
114	Ervin, Tyler	San Jose State	70	192	Eventual Starter	6.1

Let’s start with the cream, it rises and the man at the top is the feisty runner out of Ohio State, Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott was underused at times by Ohio State and likely as a detriment to the team and their overall success. Elliott has everything you’d want from a feature back, the ability to make himself small in a hole, the speed to get the edge, receiving skills, and a willingness and understanding of blocking. I have him a step behind Gurley in talent but that’s less a knock on Elliott than it is a statement of just how talented Gurley is. Behind Elliott and my other back I think will be a factor for a starting spot day one is Heisman winner Derrick Henry from Alabama. Henry is a big back with a downhill running style, who runs high, and doesn’t turn the corner with consistency which is a problem if you put him in a system that requires him to bend and even then he should be serviceable. If put in a downhill system he will be the bane of existence for second and third level players because he’s a god damn battering ram, with 4.54 speed at near 250 lbs. I mean that’s insane as was his short shuttle (a drill where you go five yards one direction, stop go back 10 yards and then return to the middle) which at 4.38 was faster than Prosise who is 30 pounds lighter. He has his flaws but as long as you don’t try to make him what he isn’t he’s gonna beast. Kenneth Dixon is next up and was just off of my starters group and it comes down to a slight level of competition problem. Which is to say it’s probably a “me” problem. If you need an introduction to Dixon this RSP Film Room with Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) & Dan Hatman (@Dan_Hatman) is a great place to start. Dixon was on a La Tech team that had troubles against Power Five teams but Dixon showed all the traits you want, and didn’t make a habit of trying to beat players to the edge all the time. Dixon is going to be good, I just think it takes a year or two. Behind Dixon is a mini-tier of backs that all have different skill sets. C.J. Prosise is a work in progress. The former wideout at Notre Dame was moved to RB because of injuries and flashed a very interesting skill set. Athletically he is a top prospect, but he still needs to learn the nuances of the position and sure up his blocking. If he continues to grow like he did throughout this past season he has a chance to be a very productive NFL running back. Perkins is one of my favorites who does everything well and is more explosive on tape than his test scores say he should be. He’s tough to bring down and a good pass catcher. I think he needs to work on his running between the tackles and his blocking but he’s a kid I have high hopes for in the long run. Now for a player with the opposite problems as Perkins. Booker is a big bodied back with plenty of power and enough speed to be a factor. Booker was the rock on which the Utah offense was built as the team was racked with QB troubles (both injury & talent). If it weren’t for a litany of injuries and the fact he wasn’t able to put in full workouts I’m dropped him just a little bit. Alex Collins is part of a pair of Arkansas backs that were very good in a system that featured them. Collins is a strong runner who is a predominantly straight line player but with enough wiggle to make him an option for just about everybody. He doesn’t have that second or third gear but he works hard and is going to be a very consistent performer for somebody. The last three backs in my top ten are an interesting medley of talents. Jordan Howard is a downhill battering ram that has a very specific role that he is very, very good at. He has a wide range but if someone has a role open for him you’ll see him gone by the fourth round. Jonathan Williams has the talent to be much higher than this but he missed the entirety of the 2015 season with a foot injury which is certainly a concern, but in 2014 he had nearly 1200 yards rushing and a dozen touchdowns. If completely healthy and healed Williams is a Dixon level talent. Lastly, my favorite prospect of this draft Tyler Ervin. An undersized back from San Jose State, Ervin is being pegged as a receiving back/return specialist. For me I think he can be a feature back much like I did with Abdullah last season. On his tape, even at the 175 that he played at he was able to fall forward after first contact even against an FBS defense like Auburn. Yes you see him get stonewalled and I’m hedging a bit, with my grade, on his size but I saw enough over multiple games to think he isn’t just a back that gets stood up when hit. That all being said, an extra almost 20 pounds should certainly help all of that.

To summarize I really like this set of running backs and with an exciting class on the horizon I think there may be some steals available late in this draft. Overall it’s a deep draft and has good talent up top, with names you need to know.

Add-on here are my top five fullbacks. I don’t have much to say about them, but it’s pretty alright crop.

Overall	Player	Team	Ht	Wt	Role	Grade
67	Vitale, Dan	Northwestern	72.875	239	Starter	7.2
136	Gronkowski, Glenn	Kansas State	74.125	239	Eventual Starter	6.3
163	Vainuku, Soma	USC	71.5	246	Eventual Starter	6.1
248	Watt, Derek	Wisconsin	74	236	Potential Starter	5.7
314	Kerridge, Joe	Michigan	72	245	Potential Starter	5.4

2016 NFL Draft QB Top Ten

Alright we’re a week and a half out from the draft and it’s been months since I’ve written anything. I’ve been doing a lot of draft work and it’s taken more time than I expected. That being said, I’m going to spend the next 10 days breaking down the top of my position rankings, a how I’d do it mock, my top 300 big board, and a mock to finish off draft week. So to start it off let’s take a look at my top 10 QBs and a few words about each.

Overall	Player	Team	Ht	Wt	Role	Grade
60	Goff, Jared	California	76	215	Eventual Starter	6.5
82	Lynch, Paxton	Memphis	78.625	244	Eventual Starter	6.2
104	Wentz, Carson	North Dakota State	77.25	237	Potential Starter	5.9
119	Adams Jr., Vernon	Oregon	70.875	200	Potential Starter	5.7
145	Cook, Connor	Michigan State	76	217	Potential Starter	5.5
146	Jones, Cardale	Ohio State	77	253	Potential Starter	5.5
218	Hogan, Kevin	Stanford	75.25	218	Potential Starter	5.1
245	Boykin, Trevone	TCU	72	212	Potential Starter	5.0
246	Allen, Brandon	Arkansas	73.375	217	Potential Starter	5.0
247	Hackenberg, Christian	Penn State	76.375	223	Potential Starter	5.0

A few notes on the class as a whole. First off there aren’t any prospects in this class that I see with the future of a Mariota or Winston, let alone Luck. That being said I see a lot of guys with traits that point to possibilities if not the sky high upside, which makes this class deeper than we saw last season. With that said, Goff is my top QB in the draft and he’s it by a pretty good margin. Goff doesn’t have a cannon but he has enough functional velocity and strength to get the ball to all parts of the field. He needs to be a bit better from 10+ on his accuracy, but his pocket skills are really good and as more info has come out it is clear that he was a part of making adjustments at the line and in decision making with throws. All in all he should be a competent starter year 2 and safely above average by year 3-4. The other guy I feel confident in being a starter in the next 5 years is Paxton Lynch. Are there flaws here, absolutely, but unlike the other QBs I see enough footwork in the pocket, he has a cannon, and he showed enough throughout the season (especially against Ole Miss) that makes me think he’ll be an asset on the field in 3-4 years with Eli Manning like swings from season to season. Most places will have Wentz as a top two QB heading into the draft and that focuses on arm strength and body type which are fine things to look at if you don’t lose the forest for the trees. For me the forest is that Wentz stares down receivers, played in an offense that featured the run over the pass, and, oh yeah, he completely stops his feet in the pocket. And I know what you’re thinking, oh you mean he’s not jumpy and he has both feet down at the same time, that’s good he’s not looking to escape at all times. You would think that, but no, he literally stops all movement while in the middle of the pocket at times and it’s the most annoying trait I’ve ever seen from a QB. I see where the talent is but there are a couple fatal flaws that could certainly derail his career before it takes flight. I’ve waffled on Adams during the process leading up, and I certainly get the knocks, but multiple people, specifically (@QBKlass) have done great work highlighting the positives and pointing out that Adams was a completely different player when healthy. He does need to stay healthy, and he’ll have to clean up a propensity to say fuck it once in a while but you see over and over the ability to work outside of the system and pocket and make plays that most QBs cannot. Cook is this far down because his talent seems to just disappear for stretches of games. I’ve seen Cook play superb quarters of football where he clearly is a master at the helm of the Spartans offense, but it’s the complete lack of consistency and an inability to put himself in a position to succeed on a play that have dropped him from a surefire 1^st round pick before the season. Jones has a similar but different issue than Cook. Jones suffers from limited tape and lack of experience but he has an intriguing skill set that was flashed during the run to the National Championship two years ago. He’ll need time to develop and a coach that believes in him, i.e. him in Arizona would be so freaking scary and he has the talent to be a more successful version of what we thought Logan Thomas could be. Kevin Hogan is a fine QB prospect, his flaws are below average, where he excels he’s above average, I don’t have much to say other than his fatal flaws are slightly less worse than the grouping of the last three QBs. Boykin has flash and upside but has very questionable decision making, Allen has tiny hands and I’m not sure how much of his senior makes me discard what we saw as a junior, and Hackenberg who was a shoe-in for the first pick after his freshmen season, but can’t maneuver a pocket enough to allow himself to fire a football downfield. Boykin makes up for his flaws with impressive deep passing, Allen was steady as a rock for an Arkansas team that found ways to make sure they had to pass, and Hackenberg checks the pedigree, body, and arm strength boxes. Pick at your own risks and make sure you have a plan to not utilize them early in their careers.

With that we are set, a group of quarterbacks with more depth than upside, and a lack of players that I would spend a first round pick on. But there are players I like, and I think at worst this draft produces more rosterable talent than last season.