2016 NFL Draft QB Top Ten

Alright we’re a week and a half out from the draft and it’s been months since I’ve written anything. I’ve been doing a lot of draft work and it’s taken more time than I expected. That being said, I’m going to spend the next 10 days breaking down the top of my position rankings, a how I’d do it mock, my top 300 big board, and a mock to finish off draft week. So to start it off let’s take a look at my top 10 QBs and a few words about each.

Overall	Player	Team	Ht	Wt	Role	Grade
60	Goff, Jared	California	76	215	Eventual Starter	6.5
82	Lynch, Paxton	Memphis	78.625	244	Eventual Starter	6.2
104	Wentz, Carson	North Dakota State	77.25	237	Potential Starter	5.9
119	Adams Jr., Vernon	Oregon	70.875	200	Potential Starter	5.7
145	Cook, Connor	Michigan State	76	217	Potential Starter	5.5
146	Jones, Cardale	Ohio State	77	253	Potential Starter	5.5
218	Hogan, Kevin	Stanford	75.25	218	Potential Starter	5.1
245	Boykin, Trevone	TCU	72	212	Potential Starter	5.0
246	Allen, Brandon	Arkansas	73.375	217	Potential Starter	5.0
247	Hackenberg, Christian	Penn State	76.375	223	Potential Starter	5.0

A few notes on the class as a whole. First off there aren’t any prospects in this class that I see with the future of a Mariota or Winston, let alone Luck. That being said I see a lot of guys with traits that point to possibilities if not the sky high upside, which makes this class deeper than we saw last season. With that said, Goff is my top QB in the draft and he’s it by a pretty good margin. Goff doesn’t have a cannon but he has enough functional velocity and strength to get the ball to all parts of the field. He needs to be a bit better from 10+ on his accuracy, but his pocket skills are really good and as more info has come out it is clear that he was a part of making adjustments at the line and in decision making with throws. All in all he should be a competent starter year 2 and safely above average by year 3-4. The other guy I feel confident in being a starter in the next 5 years is Paxton Lynch. Are there flaws here, absolutely, but unlike the other QBs I see enough footwork in the pocket, he has a cannon, and he showed enough throughout the season (especially against Ole Miss) that makes me think he’ll be an asset on the field in 3-4 years with Eli Manning like swings from season to season. Most places will have Wentz as a top two QB heading into the draft and that focuses on arm strength and body type which are fine things to look at if you don’t lose the forest for the trees. For me the forest is that Wentz stares down receivers, played in an offense that featured the run over the pass, and, oh yeah, he completely stops his feet in the pocket. And I know what you’re thinking, oh you mean he’s not jumpy and he has both feet down at the same time, that’s good he’s not looking to escape at all times. You would think that, but no, he literally stops all movement while in the middle of the pocket at times and it’s the most annoying trait I’ve ever seen from a QB. I see where the talent is but there are a couple fatal flaws that could certainly derail his career before it takes flight. I’ve waffled on Adams during the process leading up, and I certainly get the knocks, but multiple people, specifically (@QBKlass) have done great work highlighting the positives and pointing out that Adams was a completely different player when healthy. He does need to stay healthy, and he’ll have to clean up a propensity to say fuck it once in a while but you see over and over the ability to work outside of the system and pocket and make plays that most QBs cannot. Cook is this far down because his talent seems to just disappear for stretches of games. I’ve seen Cook play superb quarters of football where he clearly is a master at the helm of the Spartans offense, but it’s the complete lack of consistency and an inability to put himself in a position to succeed on a play that have dropped him from a surefire 1^st round pick before the season. Jones has a similar but different issue than Cook. Jones suffers from limited tape and lack of experience but he has an intriguing skill set that was flashed during the run to the National Championship two years ago. He’ll need time to develop and a coach that believes in him, i.e. him in Arizona would be so freaking scary and he has the talent to be a more successful version of what we thought Logan Thomas could be. Kevin Hogan is a fine QB prospect, his flaws are below average, where he excels he’s above average, I don’t have much to say other than his fatal flaws are slightly less worse than the grouping of the last three QBs. Boykin has flash and upside but has very questionable decision making, Allen has tiny hands and I’m not sure how much of his senior makes me discard what we saw as a junior, and Hackenberg who was a shoe-in for the first pick after his freshmen season, but can’t maneuver a pocket enough to allow himself to fire a football downfield. Boykin makes up for his flaws with impressive deep passing, Allen was steady as a rock for an Arkansas team that found ways to make sure they had to pass, and Hackenberg checks the pedigree, body, and arm strength boxes. Pick at your own risks and make sure you have a plan to not utilize them early in their careers.

With that we are set, a group of quarterbacks with more depth than upside, and a lack of players that I would spend a first round pick on. But there are players I like, and I think at worst this draft produces more rosterable talent than last season.