2017 NFL Draft: Wide Receivers

The 2017 receiver class is weaker at the top than last year’s class was, but that doesn’t mean it’s a worse class than last year which probably had more top end talent but was a bit weak in the middle. There are 13 players that I think contribute relatively early and a couple handful more that have the upside to get there.

1)     Corey Davis, Sr, Western Michigan, 6’ 2 7/8” 209 lbs – Starter (7.4)

Stats – Targets: 138, Yards: 1500, Catch Rate: 70.29%, 40: N/a, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a

I’ve waffled on Davis because it’s tough to put a MAC receiver, with a lower body injury, who hasn’t done any athletic testing as your best receiver, and yet here we are. I’ve had him at 3 and 2 before I got to this point, but I’ve decided to trust what we saw on the field with Davis. What we saw on the field was a player who dominated in a special way against lower competition and was able to best the higher level competition when he got the chance. Davis will need to work on some concentration drops at the next level, but he’s great in space and that should help him at least compete to see the field early.

2)     John Ross, Jr, Washington, 5’ 10 3/8” 188 lbs – Starter (7.3)

Stats – Targets: 129, Yards: 1150, Catch Rate: 62.79%, 40: 4.22, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a

Ross sat on just his forty time as far as athletic testing is concerned and I can’t fault him after he ran the fastest recorded 40 time in combine history. Ross wins in the deep game but what might be most impressive is his work in the short areas, especially in the red zone. You routinely see Ross win in these scenarios with great footwork to play on the fears of defensive backs. What might keep Ross down on draft day is a trio of knee surgeries he’s already had, combined with shoulder surgery this off-season. If not for these known issues, I would probably have Ross in the 7.6-7.7 range. Ross is a more complete version of Will Fuller with a better route tree.

3)     Mike Williams, Jr, Clemson, 6’ 3 5/8” 218 lbs – Starter (7.1)

Stats – Targets: 129, Yards: 1267, Catch Rate: 69.77%, 40: 4.54, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a

Mike Williams was most people’s number one receiver heading into the season and for a good number of people he still is. I don’t know if they’re wrong but I have questions. As Sigmond Bloom from FootballGuys.com points out he’s the rare receiver who seems to be more confident with a DB draped on him than when he has created separation. Williams had a very good year after missing 2015 with a nasty neck injury. He doesn’t get separation as well as the two players ahead of him, and it will be interesting to see if that crops up as an issue when he’s trying to build report with a quarterback that hasn’t been with him for multiple seasons. Williams is a good receiver but much like a couple high profile running backs there is just something that leaves me wanting in his game.

4)     Taywan Taylor, Sr, WKU, 5’ 11” 203 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)

Stats – Targets: 144, Yards: 1730, Catch Rate: 68.06%, 40: 4.50, 3-Cone: 6.57, Short Shuttle: 4.21

Taywan Taylor is a player that I had to take a second look at after his athletic testing came in. The testing lead back to the tape and I watched it looking for different things. Taylor like Ross is a small guy who plays big. Taylor is great in contested situations and is pretty good in the open field. The problem when watching tape for Taylor & Zay Jones later is the way they are used at or around the line of scrimmage in their respective offenses which leads to type casting as slot receivers. Taylor’s a freak and performed like a freak on Saturdays and should be able to translate that to the NFL field.

5)     Carlos Henderson, Jr, Louisiana Tech, 5’ 11” 199 lbs – Expected Starter (6.9)

Stats – Targets: 132, Yards: 1535, Catch Rate: 62.12%, 40: 4.46, 3-Cone: 7.18, Short Shuttle: 4.35

As we look at Henderson and his numbers I want to take a minute and make a point about catch rate. I like it as a stat, but there’s a catch. A player can have a low catch rate and not have bad hands. Most times you see a player with a low catch rate and high yards per target it means he was used far more in the vertical passing game than the underneath. Henderson falls into this category with 11.63 yards per target, he’s athletic but not a freak. He’s good, but needs a bit of refining which keeps him out of the Starters tier.

6)     Curtis Samuel, Jr, Ohio State, 5’ 11” 196 lbs – Expected Starter (6.7)

Stats – Targets: 97, Yards: 865, Catch Rate: 62.12%, 40: 4.31, 3-Cone: 7.09, Short Shuttle: 4.33

First things first, Samuel also had 97 rushes for 771 yards (7.95 yards per rush). He was used in a dual role for Ohio State and you could convince me to put him at RB, but I think he’s a dynamic receiving threat. That said, I don’t understand how you’d be extremely high on Samuel and not on Henderson. He’s got a better 40 time, and that should be celebrated because 4.31 is extremely fast, but his agility scores aren’t appreciably better than Henderson. I think both are going to be incredibly useful at the next level. 

7)     Zay Jones, Sr, East Carolina, 6’ 2 1/8” 201 – Expected Starter (6.6)

Stats – Targets: 221, Yards: 1746, Catch Rate: 71.49%, 40: 4.45, 3-Cone: 6.79, Short Shuttle: 4.01

Zay Jones is Taywan Taylor but so much more of an enigma. Jones was used mostly within a couple yards of the line of scrimmage in a quick, timing based offense that never pushed the ball down field and based on that I had him in the 5.6-5.8 range. Then he went to the Senior Bowl and showed out, by performing well in the red zone areas and having an all-around impressive week at practice. He followed that up by smashing his combine. His forty is comparable to Henderson, and his agility drills best both Henderson & Samuel by a 3 tenths of a second. That’s a significant amount of time. All this is to say that Jones’ post-season results suggest that just because he wasn’t asked to play the big game/outside game at ECU doesn’t mean he can’t.

8)     Ryan Switzer, Sr, North Carolina, 5’ 8.5” 181 lbs – Expected Starter (6.6)

Stats – Targets: 128, Yards: 1112, Catch Rate: 75.00%, 40: 4.51, 3-Cone: 6.77, Short Shuttle: 4.00

Switzer is the best pure slot receiver in the class to me. Samuel is a hybrid and a weapon and something a little more valuable to me than just a slot. That said, just a slot is a valuable piece of the puzzle. If you need proof, look at the impact that Jamison Crowder produced for Washington and I think Switzer can be that kind of a rookie impact.

9)     Chris Godwin, Jr, Penn State, 6’ 1” 209 lbs – Expected Starter (6.4)

Stats – Targets: 99, Yards: 982, Catch Rate: 59.60%, 40: 4.42, 3-Cone: 7.01, Short Shuttle: 4.00

This is about the place where we find players that have more questions, not necessarily lower upsides but questions none-the-less. Godwin is a favorite of a good number of people and I get some of the hype, the speed and agility are there, but he’s inconsistent and had major ebbs and flows throughout the season.

10)  ArDarius Stewart, Jr, Alabama, 5’ 11” 204 lbs – Expected Starter (6.3)

Stats – Targets: 80, Yards: 828, Catch Rate: 67.50%, 40: 4.49, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a

Stewart is my last write up for the receivers and he’s an intriguing player. He was stuck in a Alabama offense that was played with leads a lot, became more wide open as the Kiffin era went on, but still found itself with a lot of leads and running situations. Stewart for his part has a well-rounded game and is able to win in the short area as well as the vertical game. He’ll need to show that the offense was the reason for his inconsistency and not his own reliability but ArDarius has the tools to be a big time weapon at the next level.

11)  Isaiah McKenzie, Jr, Georgia, 5’ 7” 173 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)

Stats – Targets: 64, Yards: 633, Catch Rate: 68.75%, 40: 4.42, 3-Cone: 6.64, Short Shuttle: 4.15

12)  JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jr, USC, 6’ 1 3/8” 215 lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)

Stats – Targets: 104, Yards: 917, Catch Rate: 67.31%, 40: 4.54, 3-Cone: 6.94, Short Shuttle: 4.13

13)  Trent Taylor, Sr, Louisiana Tech, 5’ 8” 181 lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)

Stats – Targets: 174, Yards: 1819, Catch Rate: 78.74%, 40: 4.63, 3-Cone: 6.74, Short Shuttle: 4.01

14)  Amba Etta-Tawo, Jr, Syracuse, 6’ 1” 208 lbs – Potential Starter (6.0)

Stats – Targets: 131, Yards: 1482, Catch Rate: 71.76%, 40: 4.47, 3-Cone: 6.95, Short Shuttle: 4.27

15)  Speedy Noil, Jr, Texas A&M, 5’ 11” 199 lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)

Stats – Targets: 48, Yards: 325, Catch Rate: 43.75%, 40: 4.45, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a

16)  Amara Darboh, Sr, Michigan, 6’ 2” 214 lbs – Potential Starter (6.0)

Stats – Targets: 101, Yards: 862, Catch Rate: 56.44%, 40: 4.45, 3-Cone: 6.81, Short Shuttle: 4.27

17)  Robert Davis, Sr, Georgia State, 6’ 3” 219 lbs – Potential Starter (5.8)

Stats – Targets: 122, Yards: 968, Catch Rate: 54.92%, 40: 4.44, 3-Cone: 6.82, Short Shuttle: 4.28

18)  DeAngelo Yancey, Sr, Purdue, 6’ 1 5/8” 220 lbs – Potential Starter (5.8)

Stats – Targets: 98, Yards: 951, Catch Rate: 50.00%, 40: 4.53, 3-Cone: 6.84, Short Shuttle: 4.27

19)  Chad Hansen, Jr, California, 6’ 2” 202 lbs – Potential Starter (5.7)

Stats – Targets: 147, Yards: 1249, Catch Rate: 62.59%, 40: 4.47, 3-Cone: 6.74, Short Shuttle: 4.13

20)  Cooper Kupp, Sr, Eastern Washington, 6’ 1 5/8” 204 lbs – Potential Starter (5.7)

Stats – Targets: 193, Yards: 1700, Catch Rate: 60.68%, 40: 4.61, 3-Cone: 6.53, Short Shuttle: 4.08

As for the rest of them it’s a good group with McKenzie/Noil being freaky athletes who didn’t quite have the production last season. Smith-Shuster has the recruiting pedigree, Kupp/Taylor have the insane production at a lower level of competition with testing that raises questions, Etta-Tawo/Darboh are big receivers with intriguing measurable and questions about production (for Etta-Tawo it’s an scheme thing), for Davis/Hansen I didn’t completely get it when I watched them, and with Yancey he’s farther down because I know that the history for receivers who didn’t get Combine invites is pretty dismal and, although I like him, I have to temper expectations.

So those are my thoughts on the top 20 wide receivers it’s a good group with limited upside and intrigue throughout. You’re going to be able to find some specific types of players later in the draft that are useful for team building and that has its own worth.

2017 NFL Draft: My Draft Team

Alright so I mentioned this in explanation of process and I figured since receiver is taking me longer than expected to write up I’d throw this together to put something out today. As I said I got this from @JoeGoodberry who writes about the Bengals and D-line and is a pretty interesting follow for football. The idea goes like this, you make draft picks during the draft and you watch how those players develop. To start you draft two players per round for the first couple seasons to start to fill out the roster and take stock as player contracts would start to come through. I started this last season after I heard him talk about it and looking back the results were interesting to say the least. Let’s take a look…

	2016	Pos	G/GS	Stats
Rd 1, Pick 16	Myles Jack, OBLB, UCLA	SLB	16/10	19 Tkls, .5 Sks, 2 PD
Rd 1, Pick 17	William Jackson III, CB, Houston		Inj	-
Rd 2, Pick16	Andrew Billings, Int, Baylor	1T	Inj	-
Rd 2, Pick 17	Michael Thomas, WR, Ohio State		15/12	121 Tgts, 1137 yds, 9 TDs
Rd 3, Pick 16	Nick Vigil, OBLB, Utah State	MLB	16/0	12.5 Tkls
Rd 3, Pick 17	Kalan Reed, CB, Southern Miss		4/0	1 Tkl
Rd 4, Pick 16	Jeremy Cash, SS, Duke		N/a	-
Rd 4, Pick 17	Kenneth Dixon, RB, Louisiana Tech		12/0	88 Att, 382 yds rush 41 Tgts, 162 yds rec
Rd 5, Pick 16	Donovan Clark, OG, Michigan State	RG	Inj	-
Rd 5, Pick 17	Vernon Adams Jr, QB, Oregon		N/a	-
Rd 6, Pick 16	Matt Skura, OG, Duke	LG	N/a	-
Rd 6, Pick 17	Mike Thomas, WR, Southern Miss		15/0	180 return yds
Rd 7, Pick 16	Jason Fainaka, Edge, Utah	DE	Ret	-
Rd 7, Pick 17	Connor Wujiack, Int, Boston College	3T	Inj	-

Alright, the first thing I noticed was I had an injury riddled 2016. Jack, Jackson, and Billings were all injured. The next thing I noticed was I drafted like half of the Bengals draft. That aside, six players played in at least four games, two started double digit games, and Michael Thomas was a bonifide star in his rookie season. That said there are both literal holes in the roster and holes that I don’t think players from last year’s draft are going to fill. Cash & Adams aren’t currently in the league, Skura, Wujciak, and Clark are on rosters, and Jackson, Billings, Clark, and Wujciak were injured and missed the season.

Looking forward I need to look for tackles, edge players, DB depth and offensive backfield help. With 34 players added this season it will be interesting going into season three seeing what holes need filling and starting to think about who you’d keep, let go after rookie contracts, and/or franchise tag.

Let me know how bad you think I fucked this up, what you like, what you dislike and who you’d try to add to this roster.

2017 NFL Draft: Running Backs ft. Full Backs

Let’s start our look at RBs by discussing Ezekiel Elliot bringing sexy back to the backs. He may have a bit, but this class would have been celebrated to matter what happened last season, and none of the backs in this class are on his level. They are, however, comparable at the top to Derrick Henry who in retrospect I was a touch low on. Also, let’s address the Joe Mixon problem here. I don’t want him on my team, but he went through the legal process, he had to sit out a year at Oklahoma, he hasn’t delivered multiple fractures to another human being’s face in three years, and he’s going to be drafted. I’m rating Mixon on talent/potential, so I’ll put my “Fuck a Joe Mixon” here and move on with the RB ranks.

For my production stat, I take into account yards per rush, workload (total rushes), yards per target (receiving) and combine them to give me my production stats. For athleticism component, the drills are ranked 1) 40-yard dash, 2) 10-yard split, 3) 3-Cone, 4) 20-yard short shuttle, T-5) Vert & Broad Jumps. The athleticism is based on mass adjusted times to even out what is a pretty diverse position group body type-wise.

1) Dalvin Cook, Jr, Florida State, 5’ 10” 210 lbs –Starter (7.2)

Stats – Touches: 322, Yards per Rush: 6.13, Yards per Target: 10.47, 40: 4.49, 3-Cone: 7.27, Shuttle: 4.53

I’ve flipped, switched debated with myself about how to rank the four top RBs this season and I’ve come to the conclusion that I don’t see a whole lot of separation between them value-wise. They all get the job done but in different ways. Cook was the most productive of the bunch and he shows up constantly on tape. Cook had an atrocious shuttle time and although that shows up in his game some I’d be more concerned with his shoulder. I didn’t knock him for it because I have no idea how it’s healed and how he is mentally, but you could see him shy away from it throughout 2016 and that needs to change going forward for him to reach his potential.

2) Christian McCaffrey, Jr, Stanford, 5’ 11” 202 lbs –Starter (7.2)

Stats – Touches: 291, Yards per Rush: 6.31, Yards per Target: 6.48, 40: 4.48, 3-Cone: 6.57, Shuttle: 4.22

McCaffrey is a freak in all the right ways, you can see the difference in the short area between him & Cook in the 3-cone and shuttle times where he bested the junior from Florida State by almost three quarters of a second in the 3-cone and a third of a second in the shuttle. Lest you think like some that McCaffrey is a scat back who will be just a passing game compliment in the NFL in the last two seasons, McCaffrey had 20+ rushes 19 times and 30+ 7 times. He’s been a workhorse in a power scheme throughout his career and I see no reason that should change at the NFL level.

3) Joe Mixon, R. So, Oklahoma, 6’ 0.75” 228 lbs –Starter (7.2)

Stats – Touches: 225, Yards per Rush: 6.78, Yards per Target: 12.23, 40: 4.45, 3-Cone: 7.10, Shuttle: 4.27

I’ve addressed Mixon’s off the field issues at the top of this piece, but we need to talk about the on field conundrum. He’s a freak as well, but unlike McCaffrey I think he’s actually better as a pass catcher than a runner at this point. That’s not to say he doesn’t have flashes when running the ball, but his splashiest plays are out in space when he gets the ball through the air. Mixon will need to grow as a subtle runner at the next level, but he’ll add a spark to whichever offense he becomes a part of.

4) Leonard Fournette, Jr, LSU, 6’ 0” 240 lbs –Starter (7.1)

Stats – Touches: 144, Yards per Rush: 6.53, Yards per Target: 6.64, 40: 4.51, 3-Cone: N/a, Shuttle: N/a

Fournette could end up being the best back in this class but there are a few concerns I can’t just dismiss. First, is his issue running from shotgun. Much like Adrian Peterson you see a noticeable difference in his productivity when aligned next to the QB in the backfield. Combine that with the continued prevalence of the shotgun at the NFL level and you have a serious concern. There is also the issue with his horizontal athleticism. He didn’t run the 3-cone or shuttle at the combine or his pro day, but on film that short area change of direction just isn’t there. I like Fournette and want to see him succeed but he wins in a way that is very different from say Henry last season, and Fournette will be very dependent on scheme especially early in his career in the NFL. That said 4.51 at 240 is insane.

5) Kareem Hunt, Sr, Toledo, 5’ 10” 216 lbs – Expected Starter (6.7)

Stats – Touches: 303, Yards per Rush: 5.63, Yards per Target: 9.16, 40: 4.60, 3-Cone: 7.22, Shuttle: 4.53

Hunt is my favorite player in this draft which made his workout disappointing to me. He isn’t dissimilar to Cook from an agility standpoint, but the biggest knock here is straight-line speed. At 4.60 he’s fast enough, and on tape he looks much faster while absolutely dominating MAC competition. He checks most boxes, and I may be a bit too high but I love the way that Hunt plays.

6) Jeremy McNichols, Jr, Boise State, 5’ 9” 214 lbs – Expected Starter (6.7)

Stats – Touches: 352, Yards per Rush: 5.44, Yards per Target: 11.40, 40: 4.49, 3-Cone: 6.93, Shuttle: 4.28

McNichols is a freak, who was uber-productive at Boise State. He marks out well in all categories I measure, but what drops him to six instead of fighting for the bottom of the starters tier is the fact that on far too many plays McNichols goes to, what Matt Waldman calls, the corner store. No matter the down, distance, or time of game McNichols gambles on his athleticism and kicks it outside and far too often it doesn’t work. In most games you can find repeated instances of this. In the NFL, where there aren’t accountants or future media moguls (I’m sorry I know it’s a cliché) on defense, it’s going to hamper his upside even more than it already has. That said I don’t see why you wouldn’t bet on a freak with a relatively big investment.

7) Aaron Jones, Jr, UTEP, 5’ 9” 208 lbs – Expected Starter (6.6)

Stats – Touches: 259, Yards per Rush: 7.68, Yards per Target: 6.66, 40: 4.56, 3-Cone: 6.82, Shuttle: 4.20

A stiff breeze could probably blow Aaron Jones above both Hunt and McNichols. I first watched Jones after I saw his productivity and athleticism scores and the first thing you notice is that he isn’t just a workout warrior. He looks like the best athlete on the field against both Texas and Arkansas and for a small school prosper that’s a hell of a trick. He’s great in space, good hands out of the backfield, understands good pad level, and can drag players between the tackles. He’s a well-rounded back who at worst should be a spell back early in his career. The more I think about him the more I start thinking there isn’t any separation between him and the two players above him.

8) D’Onta Foreman, Jr, Texas, 6’ 0” 233 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)

Stats – Touches: 330, Yards per Rush: 6.28, Yards per Target: 9.38, 40: 4.46, 3-Cone: 7.21, Shuttle: 4.29

D’Onta Foreman is an enigma. He’s a large back with insane quickness in the feet, but he goes down much easier than you’d want a man his size to do. Foreman’s a freak and that’s worth an investment but I have questions about how effective he’s going to be if he goes down like he’s 180 instead of 230.

9) Samaje Perine, Jr, Oklahoma, 5’ 11” 233 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)

Stats – Touches: 206, Yards per Rush: 5.41, Yards per Target: 9.64, 40: 4.60, 3-Cone: 7.26, Shuttle: 4.37

10) Matt Brieda, Sr, Georgia Southern, 5’ 9” 195 lbs – Expected Starter (6.3)

Stats – Touches: 179, Yards per Rush: 3.85, Yards per Target: 4.08, 40: 4.39, 3-Cone: 6.85, Shuttle: 4.34

Alright I’m going to put the last two of my top ten together because they both fall into a similar category for me. Perine was a freshman phenom that didn’t regain his former glory while struggling through injuries the last couple of seasons. Brieda for his part saw a drop of in 2016 as Georgia Southern completely reconfigured it’s offense under a new coaching staff. Both worked out in a way that gives me hope and both have the ability to be very dynamic pieces in a modern backfield. Perine has the higher upside, was a high recruit for Oklahoma and has shown flashes of both wiggle and power even through a lean season last season. Brieda was really, really good for Georgia Southern and the times he posted as a bowling ball of a back will make him a steal in the mid to late rounds of the draft.

The top of this group wasn’t quite as deep as it could have been this year, but I have 12 backs with ES grades and three more that were real close to cracking that threshold. Unlike last season where there were only a couple backs that really excited me, I could probably go at least 6 deep with players I’m really excited about and probably more if we’re just talking upside. So, that finishes up my positional primer on running backs. And I’ll put my top five FBs below this but I’m not going to write them up because I’ll just be bullshitting you.

1)     Sam Rogers, Sr, Virginia Tech, 5’ 10” 231 lbs – Starter (7.1)

2)     Chad Newell, Sr, Montana, 6’ 1” 215 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)

3)     Freddie Stevenson, Sr, FloridaSTate, 6’ 0” 234 lbs – Probable Starter (6.0)

4)     Algernon Brown, Sr, BYU, 6’ 1” 250 lbs – Probable Starter (5.9)

5)     Lorenzo Long, Sr, Wofford, 5’ 8” 204 lbs – Probable Starter (5.5)

2017 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks

Note: Before I start this preview, I realized after I had written and published the explanation of process I forgot to explain how my grades work. I borrowed the 80-20 from baseball scouting and combined it with a set of five groupings.

Starter – S - 8.0-7.1, ability to start year 1.

Expected Starter – ES – 7.0-6.1 – ability to contribute year 1, starters by year 3.

Potential Starter – PS – 6.0-4.1 – broadest range, solid contributor throughout career,  players in the upper half of this tier may have high upsides but they’re a few years from reaching that potential

Backup – B – 4.0-3.1 – roster fillers with ability to be spot starters in a pinch but lack upside.

UDFA – UDFA – 3.0-2.0 – players I wouldn’t draft

I won’t talk too much about the last two slots unless those players are drafted. Most players overall will fall into the PS tier but these previews will see mostly S, ES, & PS players.

Well here we are positional preview #1, Quarterbacks. And let’s start by saying that this year’s class is a choose your own adventure contest. You have four different QBs with varying positive traits, a myriad of negative traits, but all of whom are someone’s prettiest girl in the ball. I don’t include athletic testing in my data for QB prospects, there is some merit to some tests but all in all there isn’t a lot to infer from the traditional combine tests for QBs.

I think this is how I’ll end up on the top 10 quarterbacks. I’m including 10 this season for two reasons: 1) I think there are useful players that deep or a little deeper in this draft. 2) I have Webb and Peterman at 9 & 10 and I want to rant about them. So…

1.      Deshaun Watson, Jr, Clemson, 6’ 2.5” 221 lbs – Expected Starter (6.7)

Stats – Yards: 4173, Attempts: 523, Yds/Att: 7.98

Completion%: 67.3%, Sack Rate: 2.4%, TD to INT Ratio: 2.24

Quarterback evaluation is huge on clichés and unfortunately at times I find myself falling into them with Watson. There’s some sloppy in his game and he has a relative low TD to interception ratio among the top guys in this class, but I’m willing to bet on the player I saw against Alabama the last two years in the championship games. He’s good to all parts of the field and honestly he and the next man on the list are as good as I’ve felt about QBs since Winston/Mariota.

2) Patrick Mahomes III, Jr, Texas Tech, 6’ 2” 225 lbs – Expected Starter (6.6)

Stats – Yards: 5052, Attempts: 591, Yds/Att: 8.55

Completion%: 65.7%, Sack Rate: 4.4%, TD to INT Ratio: 4.10

Stats-wise Mahomes laps the field in most categories and it’s not all dink-and-dunk in the way TTU is often viewed. I dropped him to just below Watson because I’ll admit to some concerns with his ability to translate to the next level quickly. I don’t however buy into the two competing and contradictory schools of thought on Mahomes. School 1, he doesn’t play within scheme. I don’t completely disagree here as Mahomes extends plays and is the most constructive version of a gunslinger in quite some time. He’ll need to play more in rhythm in the NFL but he makes throws to all quadrants and makes some truly beautiful touch/anticipation throws in every game. School 2, say that Mahomes plays in the Air Raid and noones ever done that successfully. I don’t buy this for two reasons: 1) a lot of these same people point to school 1 as a major flaw and, by god, if you don’t like the scheme he plays in and he makes plays routinely outside of the scheme then what’s the fucking problem (sorry if for some reason your kid is reading this.). 2) A lot of these people love them some Trubisky and Davis Webb. As @smartfootball pointed out, “*whispers* Mitchell Trubisky also played in a(n) Air Raid-based system”. So, I have a much harder time swallowing that bullshit line of thinking. Mahomes has real flaws that he needs to work on, but he’s Manziel without the cocaine and I’ll bet on that player over a safer option.

Note: This is where I had Goff last year and I should have been more cautious, if I had it over I would probably have him below Kizer and Trubisky, but alas I was a bit hasty and in year two of ranking this way. There will be mistakes and I’m not ready to call defeat on Goff, but I wanted to note this before I got to the last two of the relatively consensus top 4.

3) DeShone Kizer, Jr, Notre Dame, 6’ 4.25” 233 lbs – Expected Starter (6.3)

Stats – Yards: 2925, Attempts: 361, Yds/Att: 8.102

Completion%: 56.2%, Sack Rate: 6.5%, TD to INT Ratio: 2.89

Kizer has all the upside in the world, and if you made a highlight reel of most NFL-ready passes he probably had that covered after the Texas game. I have two major concerns here that keep me from bumping him closer to the Mariota/Watson/Mahomes level and farther from the Trubisky/Lynch area and those are confidence and the combination of completion percentage and sack rate. He’s admitted to confidence issues at Notre Dame and by all accounts off the field personal issues and Brian Kelly’s incompetence did him no favors. Actually, the latter is the main cause for concern one as well. If we take out the nearly 30 passes Kelly made Kizer throw in a freaking hurricane Kizer hit’s the 60% benchmark for completion percentage. I like Kizer I just have nagging doubts about Kizer that I can’t shake.

Note: I can reasonably see Kizer proving me dead wrong and it would make me pretty happy because I’m a big fan of this kid’s upside.

4) Mitchell “Don’t call, ok you can call me, Mitch” Trabisky, Jr, North Carolina, 6’ 2 1/8” 222 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)

Stats - Yards: 3748, Attempts: 447, Yds/Att: 8.385

Completion%: 68.0%, Sack Rate: 4.3%, TD to INT Ratio: 5.00

The stats scream extreme competence for Trubisky and that’s great, I should love this player theoretically, but there is something wrong that I can’t shake. There is no better description of Trubisky’s dichotomy than the bookends to his season. His coming out party against Georgia was impressive, the team stumbled a bit down the stretch but Trubisky had them within reach of the Bulldogs and put him on mine, and many others, radar. The bowl game against Stanford was rough. He made poor decisions multiple times and showed his inexperience and glimpse as to why he couldn’t pass Marquise Williams on the roster for two seasons. One reason stated for this was that coaches were looking to avoid a locker room mutiny. That scares me more than Kizers “yips” or Mahomes’ gunslinger-ness.

Note: For the second time, I wanted to point out where I had someone ranked last season. Here’s the Wentz line. I want to rant so much here, but I won’t this is where I had Wentz and, unlike with Goff, I stand by this rating.

5) Jerod Evans, Jr, Va Tech, 6’ 3” 232 lbs – Potential Starter (5.7)

Stats - Yards: 3552, Attempts: 422, Yds/Att: 8.417

Completion%: 63.5%, Sack Rate: 7.0%, TD to INT Ratio: 3.625

Evans is going to surprise many here, but he compares favorably across a statistical profile. He has the size, the arm, and flashed early in the season when he was healthy. He’s got upside and managed to be impressive despite being hampered by a lower body injury all season. He’s got the upside, we’ll see if he gets a chance to shine or gets buried.

6) Brad Kaaya, Jr, Miami (FL), 6’ 4” 214 lbs – Potential Starter (5.5)

Stats - Yards: 3532, Attempts: 421, Yds/Att: 8.390

Completion%: 62.0%, Sack Rate: 5.6%, TD to INT Ratio: 3.857

Kaaya is this year’s Cody Kessler. Yes, he’s probably a back-up but he’s going to stick in the league for a decade he’s going to be good in spot starts but he doesn’t have the arm or the upside to be the long-term starter for a Super Bowl caliber team.

7) Josh Dobbs, Sr, Tennessee, 6’ 3” 216 lbs – Potential Starter (5.5)

Stats - Yards: 2946, Attempts: 357, Yds/Att: 8.252

Completion%: 63.0%, Sack Rate: 6.5%, TD to INT Ratio: 2.250

Dobbs was lights out in the second half of the season, after disappointing early. He will have zero problem picking up a playbook, but when you watch him play it appears to be clinical. He’s Clapton to Mahomes’ Prince. Clapton is amazingly proficient and that should be applauded, but Prince will blow your mind technically and make you feel. Dobbs has a chance to be good, but I fear there will always be something missing you can’t quite quantify.

8) Chad Kelly, Sr, Ole Miss, 6’ 2” 224 lbs – Potential Starter (5.2)

Stats - Yards: 2758, Attempts: 328, Yds/Att: 8.409

Completion%: 62.5%, Sack Rate: 4.7%, TD to INT Ratio: 2.375

If Mahomes gives me Favre-esque chills on the field, Kelly provides Favre level concerns off of it. Kelly is a promising prospect who skills-wise is probably the best QB in this tier, but he has too many well-documented troubles that have affected his on-field performances in college to make me want to take anything but a second half of the draft flier on him.

9) Nathan Peterman, Sr, Va Tech, 6’ 2.5” 226 lbs – Potential Starter (5.1)

Stats - Yards: 2855, Attempts: 306, Yds/Att: 9.330

Completion%: 60.5%, Sack Rate: 3.2%, TD to INT Ratio: 3.857

10) Davis Webb, Sr, California, 6’ 5” 229 lbs – Potential Starter (5.0)

Stats - Yards: 4295, Attempts: 620, Yds/Att: 6.927

Completion%: 61.6%, Sack Rate: 2.5%, TD to INT Ratio: 3.083

I’m combining these two because I don’t get it with either. Where’s the upside? Peterman has a good Y/A, but he also was the least used healthy quarterback of the bunch by a considerable margin. Neither gets sacked much, but neither is overly dynamic in any facet of the game, both left programs after getting beat by better prospects higher up this list (Webb-Mahomes, Peterman-Dobbs). There are people eviscerated Goff last season who love them some Webb, and all I see is 620 pass attempts leading to a profile that lacks depth after that total yards passing level. That’s not to say there isn’t growth potential, but I see more from the previous four prospects than I do from either of these two.

So, there we are, my QB ranks. I like this class more than last season, and it’s the first time in a couple years that I’m confident we have multiple long term answers at the top of the draft. Mahomes and Evans are my favorites in this draft, with Trubisky, Webb, and Peterman as those I’m wary of. I think we see five QBs drafted in the first round and the landing spots will be fascinating if nothing else.

2017 NFL Draft: Explanation of Process

Alright a late start to draft content for me, but I wanted to get as much data into my system from pro days and combine as possible before I started to write and finalize my opinion, positional ranks and big board. This is a short explanation of how I come to my final thoughts.

My early opinions are just from watching college football throughout the season, it means I’ll miss players, it isn’t definitive, but it gives me a cursory knowledge of players before I move to step two… setting up data for my productivity grade. If you read my pieces before the college season started those were the basis for my productivity grades, but I did make some changes when I started to put together the spreadsheets, but I’ll elaborate on that in each positional piece. Following that is the athleticism component which has been weighted based on a study I found, it’s not perfect, but I find that the combination of these two data points at least gives me a good place to start at each position. Following all that I adjust based on Draft Breakdown cut-ups and personal opinions. I’m in no way fool proof but I like where I end up generally with my process and tweak it for efficiency as I get more feedback.

Moving forward, I plan to put out a top whatever for QB, RB, WR, TE, OT, OG, C, Interior DL, Edge Rushers, Off-Ball Linebackers, CB, FS, and SS. Add in a write up on a team building exercise I got from @JoeGoodberry before last season, a mock draft (both what I’d do and a predictive one), and a big board it’s going to be a busy week and a half.

As always would love to hear back about anything your questions, comments, or concerns on, and plowing ahead as we wrap up draft season and move towards the fantasy football season.