Welcome back college football fans, we have another week of college football to preview and enjoy. So far this year I am 39-6 in straight game picks and was 9-10-2 in my first week of picking against the spread (ATS) and a reminder all times are central because I watch them in the central time zone an don't hesitate to leave me feedback in the comments section...
Thursday, September 15th, 2011:
#3 LSU at #25 Mississippi State, 7:00 pm ESPN, this is the more interesting of the two marquee SEC games this week and it should go a long way in confirming our thoughts on the SEC West. I believe that this will be a closer game than many in the college football world believe coming off a bad loss by the Bulldogs at the hands of Auburn. This game will come down to which team can run the ball and stop the run with the most effectiveness. I think LSU wins those battles and walks away with the win. Winner: LSU 24-21 ATS: MSU +3.5
Friday, September 16th, 2011:
#4 Boise State at Toledo, 7:00 pm ESPN, Toledo is coming off a near upset in Columbus and showed the rest of the country what they have but I think that was their best game against a Ohio State team looking a little bit ahead towards this weeks Miami game. I think that Boise should be ready for a fight but that they are the far superior team in this match-up. Winner: Boise 41-24 ATS: Toledo +20
Saturday, September 17th, 2011:
#18 West Virginia at Maryland, 11:00 am ESPNU, an interesting match-up for both sides, Maryland under Edsall look like they have improved. West Virginia should have the full playbook in hand this week and we should see how well Holgerson has assimilated his new team into his offensive system. I think he puts it together and gets a good road win at Maryland. Winner: West Virginia 31-17 ATS: Pk WVU
#21 Auburn at Clemson, 11:00 am ABC, Auburn has shown great resilience in both of its wins this season and carry some momentum into perennial let down Clemson, last years game was a barn burner and this years game should be no different. Winner: Clemson 28-24 ATS: Clemson -3.5
ULM at #23 TCU, 1:00 pm, This game has all the makings to either be really close or a blowout midway through the third quarter. ULM will challenge for the Sun Belt title and isn't as bad as their name says but I think the talent in Fort Worth is just too superior to overcome. Winner: TCU 35-21 ATS: ULM +28.5
Tennessee at #16 Florida, 2:30 pm CBS, this match-up has been all Florida the last 3-4 years but this year Tennessee has some good skill players and an improving defense under Derek Dooley. Florida has made strides however on offense as well with Brantley picking up Weis' offensive system. This one should be an exciting one in Gainesville. Winner: Florida 28-27 ATS: Tenn +9.5
#15 Michigan State at Notre Dame, 2:30 pm NBC, Notre Dame has caused the heartbreak of Domers across the country in the first two weeks of the season and I don't see week 3 playing out any differently for Brian Kelly's team. These teams are pretty close on talent with MSU having a slight edge development wise however Michigan State hasn't shown the same propensity for shooting themselves in the foot and that could be the edge this week. Winner: Michigan State 24-17 ATS: MSU +5.5
#23 Texas at UCLA, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN, this was the upset of last year until we realized that Texas was horrible and UCLA wasn't actually trending upwards. This years game should be an entertaining game but I'm not sure that either team has made great strides to take this game by the horns, no pun intended. Winner: Texas 20-17 ATS:UCLA +4
Washington at #11 Nebraska, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN, they split the season series in two lop-sided games that told us little about either team. With the Huskies traveling east I think Nebraska has the advantage on them and has the experience to beat Washington for the second regular season in a row. Winner: Nebraska 24-10 ATS: Washington +16.5
Northern Illinois vs #7 Wisconsin, 2:30 pm, Soldier Field hosts this years neutral site game in Chicago but I don't think this one will be as close as last years. Wisconsin has a running game that will shread a very weak NIU front seven and should allow this game to be put away early. NIU has a chance to put up some points on a banged up Wisconsin secondary but I don't think it will be enough to bridge the talent gap. Winner: Wisconsin 38-17 ATS: Wisconsin -17
Arkansas State at #13 Virginia Tech, 3:00 pm, this one has the opportunity to put Hugh Freeze on the map or leave Arkansas State another year behind in the Sun Belt. If they can put up a moderate amount of points on the Hokies you have to walk away excited if you're an Ark State fan. On the flip side, if that happens you have to be worried for another season that your team will come up a hair short of any kind of ultimate promise by seasons end. Winner:Virginia Tech 35-20 ATS: Arkansas State +24
Central Florida at Florida International, 5:00 pm, the battle for early season non-AQ #2 goes down Saturday evening in Florida. This is a battle between teams that have lofty expectations and aspirations of big things to come in conference play. FIU won't be considered non-AQ #2 by seasons end even if it wins but with a win at home they look to be ahead of where many thought they would be this season. Winner: UCF 21-17 ATS: UCF +5.5
Navy at #10 South Carolina, 5:00 pm ESPN2, this one should be relatively easy compared to last weeks shenanigans based meeting with Georgia. Navy does not have the athletes to compete with South Carolina nor does anyone expect them too. Winner: South Carolina 28-14 ATS: Navy +17
Idaho at #9 Texas A&M, 6:00 pm, with Oklahoma State and Arkansas coming up in the next two weeks I expect a slow start by the Aggies but a win going away against an over-matched Idaho team. This one will show us how well tuned the A&M offense is going into a very tough two week stretch. Winner:Texas A&M 58-16 ATS: A&M -35.5
#22 Arizona State at Illinois, 6:00 pm ESPN2, one of the most underrated games of this college football weekend the Sun Devils come up north to take on the Fighting Illini in Champaign. The best match-up is between Brock Osweiler and Nathan Scheelhaase the quarterbacks for ASU and Illinois respectively. I think the QB that makes the fewest bad decisions will put their team in the win column. The other man who will have something to say will be Vontaze Burfict the stud linebacker for the Sun Devils will certainly be a man to watch again this week. Winner:Arizona State 27-21 ATS: Arizona State Pk
Troy at #14 Arkansas, 6:30 pm, anther sneaky Sun Belt match-up between Sun Belt juggernaut Troy and perennial SEC West #2 Arkansas. Once again I see a good 2.5-3 quarter fight from troy but ultimately Arkansas should walk away in this one. Winner: Arkansas 35-17 ATS:Toy +22.5
North Texas at #2 Alabama, 6:30 pm, the final Tide warm-up before Arkansas and Florida games Alabama won't be tested. Winner: Alabama 48-6 ATS:North Texas +45.5
#17 Ohio State at Miami (FL), 6:30 pm ESPN, Convicts vs. Convicts comes to ESPN Saturday night as the kings of the off-season face off in Miami. Al Golden's team seems to just be treading water right now as a program and that does not bode well for this season and beyond. The Buckeye's on the other hand have a much steadier program at the moment and seem to at least be heading in a slightly positive direction early in the season even with a rough showing against Toledo. Winner: Ohio State 27-21 ATS:Ohio State +2.5
#1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State, 7:00 pm ABC, the game of the week by any standards comes to us from Tallahassee and should be a barn burner at least into the fourth quarter. Oklahoma has more established talent but I like the direction of the 'Noles which to me should make this a very entertaining ball game. Winner:Oklahoma 38-35 ATS: Push (-3)
Utah at BYU, 8:15 pm ESPN2, the holy war in Provo, UT brings us a match-up of former MWC foes in new positions, Utah Pac-12 and BYU independent, along with two teams that are trending up from collapses last year. BYU has the front seven advantage and both teams are coming off tough losses last week. Winner: Utah 21-17 ATS:+4
#8 Oklahoma State at Tulsa, 9:00 pm, Oklahoma State's offense doesn't seem to have skipped a beat and that is a good thing as the team also gives up a good amount of yards. Tulsa has been beaten around in the first couple of weeks. Too much firepower here but OK State could be looking ahead to A&M. Winner: Oklahoma State 41-20 ATS:Oklahoma State -13.5
#6 Stanford at Arizona, 9:45 pm ESPN, a Pac-12 showdown in the desert as Stanford visits the Wildcats off the heals of a beat-down at the hands of Oklahoma State. Another good QB match-up with Foles versus Luck and that in and of itself is a very good reason just to tune in. Winner: Stanford 38-20 ATS: Stanford -9.5
Enjoy another great weekend of college football and I'll see those of you who follow the NFL on Friday.
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