Welcome back for another round of college football picks and thank you for reading. Week 4 seems like the season just started but the bus keeps rolling on. I've been pretty good this year picking winners with a 57-10 record but need some work against the spread (ATS) at 21-20-2. As always feel free to let me know what you think in the comments section below and lets look towards this weeks games...
Friday, September 23rd, 2011:
UCF at BYU, 7:00 pm ESPN, both teams are coming off of tough but different losses. BYU is coming off a 40 point beat down from Utah and UCF a close loss to in-state non-AQ FIU. I think UCF is in a better place overall than BYU is but I think that BYU front four could give their offense fits. Winner: UCF 27-24 ATS: UCF +2.5
Saturday, September 24th, 2011:
North Carolina at #25 Georgia Tech, 11:00 am ESPN, an ACC match-up between two very different teams. Georgia Tech is coming off a dismantling of Kansas last week in which they put up some gaudy offensive numbers but can they do that against a much more physically gifted Tar Heels defense. The Tar Heels on the other hand have been dealing with a myriad of off the field issues for over a year now and turmoil surround the team. Winner: North Carolina 27-21 ATS: UNC +6.5
San Diego State at #22 Michigan, 11:00 am, the battle for Hoke's soul takes place in Ann Arbor this weekend as Brady's former team visits his Alma Mater. Although he left a solid base in place at his last stop I think that he inherited a more talented team in the Wolverines. Winner: Michigan 38-21 ATS: Mich -10.5
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, 11:00 am ABC, Notre Dame is coming off its first loss of the season, where as Pitt is coming off what will most likely be their most devastating. The trouble of the Wannstedt era seem to be seeping over into the this team and I don't like the direction. Notre Dame on the other hand looked like it learned a few lessons from it's heartbreaks and should cruise here. Winner: Notre Dame 34-21 ATS: Notre Dame -6.5
#11 Florida State at #21 Clemson, 2:30 pm ESPN, we see a similar story to this game as we did the ND-Pitt match-up with one major difference there were positives to take from a tough loss to Oklahoma for FSU. Jimbo Fisher is making strides in his second year as head man and we should continue to see signs of that this week in Death Valley. Clemson is shouting from the mountain tops in joy of its streak snapping victory over the defending national champs but can Dabo and his team keep this from being just another mirage of what could have been for the Tigers. Winner: Clemson 24-21 ATS: Clemson -2
#7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M, 2:30 pm ABC, an afternoon showcase for a conference which will most likely be no more with-in the next year. This should be as exciting as last years contest was but the story on the field will see which style of offense is better suited for victory. A&M brings it's pro style attack will most definitely try to slow the game down, as to not give Justin Blackmon and Brandon Weeden from racking up points like it's Super Mario Brothers. Winner: Texas A&M 31-28 ATS: Ok State +4
#13 Virginia Tech at Marshall, 2:30 pm, this one shouldn't be close but if the last few weeks have taught us anything is that Va Tech is struggling more than most of us thought with their QB transition and it shows in the points differential. However, this game shouldn't be too much of a struggle for Beamer and Co. but will be a close one past halftime. Winner: Va Tech 35-20 ATS: Marshall +20
#14 Arkansas at #3 Alabama, 2:30 pm CBS, big time SEC West match-up this week, the Hogs going to Tuscaloosa to face a top tier 'Bama defense. Offense wins games but defenses wins championships is the motto which means Arkansas has a chance here but I think the home field advantage and the strength of this Bama D win the day. Winner: Alabama 24-14 ATS: Arkansas +11
Western Michigan at #24 Illinois, 2:30 pm BTN, this will be a closer game than many think but I still don't give WMU much chance to win this one. Winner: Illinois 35-27 ATS: WMU +13.5
#15 Florida at Kentucky, 6:00 pm ESPN, Kentucky has been bad, I mean really bad, losing to Louisville and only scoring 14 on a WKU team that lost to an FCS team this weekend bad. Florida has shown signs of being, well, Florida. Winner: Florida 31-10 ATS: Florida -19
Rice at #17 Baylor, 6:00 pm, see: Robert Griffin III Winner: Baylor 45-21 ATS: Baylor -20
Vanderbilt at #12 South Carolina, 6:00 pm ESPN2, a battle of unbeaten SEC teams in Columbia this week as the Commodores visit the Gamecocks. With a newly aggressive defensive strategy and a competent offense so far this season we will see if Vandy can get a surprise SEC upset. The key will be how well Lattimore runs. Winner: South Carolina 27-24 ATS: Vandy +16
#9 Nebraska at Wyoming, 6:30 pm Versus, Nebraska visits Wyoming in a warm-up to the the Huskers first Big Ten game at Camp Randall next weekend which suggests we may see a sluggish Nebraska team. Winner: Nebraska 38-17 ATS: Wyoming +23
Tulsa at #4 Boise State, 7:00 pm, Boise State has Kellen Moore, Tulsa has given up over 360 yards to both Landry Jones and Brandon Weeden. Winner: Boise State 52-17 ATS: Boise State -28.5
Missouri at #1 Oklahoma, 7:00 pm FX, a week after a big win at Florida State they come home to avenge last years loss at the hands of the Tigers in Columbia last year. The Tigers don't have the talent that says they have a chance but you never know coming off an emotional game last week. Winner: Oklahoma 38-20 ATS: Missouri +21
#2 LSU at #16 West Virginia, 7:00 pm ABC, the ABC game of the week is a mirror of the Arkansas-Alabama contest and I think the same thing applies although, West Virginia does have the added advantage of playing at home making this a closer game in my opinion. Winner: LSU 21-20 ATS: West Virginia +5.5
#23 USC at Arizona State, 9:15 pm ESPN, the better of the two late night Pac-12 match-ups in the deserts Arizona is between USC and ASU. The men of Troy come in undefeated and looking to prove that although they can't play for the Pac-12 Championship they are the best in the South. Winner: USC 38-35 ATS: +2.5
#10 Oregon at Arizona, 9:15 pm ESPN2, this one isn't much of a contest but you will see Nick Foles puts up huge numbers in a loss, again. Winner: Oregon 48-27 ATS: Oregon -15.5
Enjoy the football and a NFL preview to come in the next day or two.
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