2014 RamblingSports Week 14 CFB Preview

Using F/+ from Football Outsiders again, got 35 games over the course of the holiday weekend. With just rivalry week and Conference Championship week left enjoy the football as much as you can and have a Happy Thanksgiving with you and yours.

Thursday, November 27th, 2014:

#5 TCU (39.92) at #55 Texas (38.26) (5.33), 6:30 pm Fox Sports 1, With a win at Texas TCU is a win at home against Iowa State from assuring themselves a co-championship with Baylor. The problem for them is Texas is showing up as of late and the defense has looked legit. I think TCU rolls but I'm expecting Texas to hang around in the first half. Power Pick: Texas by 3.67 My Pick: TCU 45-17 Line: TCU -6.5

#14 LSU (49.29) at #47 Texas A&M (64.13) (5.10), 6:30 pm ESPN, LSU heads to A&M two weeks after being shutout by Arkansas. A&M presents a different problem, the defense needs to hold the A&M O in check and have to make sure that Myles Garrett doesn't cause too much havoc. Power Pick: Texas A&M 19.93 My Pick: Texas A&M 28-17 Line: LSU -3

Friday, November 28th, 2014:

#85 Northern Illinois (37.82) at #44 Western Michigan (-5.99) (1.71), 10:00 am ESPNU, Northern Illinois heads to Western Michigan in a battle for MAC West supremacy, with the caveat that what Toledo does will affect the actual winner. If WMU wins they will need Toledo to lose, where as NIU only needs to win this game. I'm taking WMU because their offense is legit and by far the best unit on the field.  Power Pick: Northern Illinois by 42.11 My Pick: Western Michigan 31-24 Line: Western Michigan -7
#76 WKU (15.52) at #19 Marshall (37.19) (2.25), 11:00 am FOX Sports 1, Marshall continues to be given the shaft by the committee and the public at large, and I say that as I write with them now in the top 25, behind Boise State who also jumped up into the poll. Marshall should walk this week. last week was the everybody gets one game for Marshall.Power Pick: Marshall by 23.91 My Pick: Marshall 45-17 Line: Marshall -23

#25 Nebraska (38.92) at #50 Iowa (44.00) (4.37), 11:00 am ABC, Nebraska heads to Kinnick to take on the Hawkeyes. Iowa is coming off a two point home lass to Wisconsin, a team Nebraska lost to on the road 59-24 and who is coming off a 28-24 loss to Minnesota at home. I think Nebraska wins here with a healthier Abdullah and a Iowa team that's got a pretty good running game and a defense that can be taken advantage of. Power Pick: Iowa by 9.45 My Pick: Nebraska 31-27 Line: Nebraska Pk

#57 UCF (30.10) at #122 USF (1.30) (2.83), 11:00 ESPN2, UCF is tied with Cincinnati a ahalf game back of Memphis at the top of the AAC. UCF should take care of USF this week which leaves just a matchup with 4-2 East Carolina between them and a 7-1 record. I think UCF takes this one pretty easy. Power Pick: UCF by 25.97 My Pick: UCF 31-13 Line: UCF -12

#77 Houston (33.03) at #127 SMU (-16.62) (1.95), 11:00 am CBSSN, Houston heads to SMU and will move to 5-2 in the conferene keeping a slim hope for a championship within reach. Power Pick: Houston by 47.70 My Pick: Houston 45-13 Line: Houston -22

#66 Toledo (27.72) at #126 Eastern Michigan (-9.68) (.14), 12:00 pm ESPN3, Toledo heads to Eastern Michigan looking to win and get a little lucky with WMU beating NIU to set up a meeting with Bowling Green in the conference championship. Power Pick: Toledo by 37.27 My Pick: Toledo 28-10 Line: Toledo -23

#22 Arkansas (36.75) at #33 Missouri (72.03) (4.12), 1:30 pm CBS, Arkansas-Missouri to decide the SEC East between Missouri and Georgia whose losses combined are to Georgia (Mizzou obviously, Florida, South Carolina and Indiana. Arkansas is on a two game SEC winning streak after dropping 17 in a row. I think the Razorbacks run it pretty well on a very good Mizzou defense, but Mizzou has trouble scoring on a much improved Arkansas defense. Power Pick: Missouri by 39.41 My Pick: Arkansas 24-14 Line: Arkansas -2

#36 Stanford (57.62) at #9 UCLA (83.81) (3.83), 2:30 pm ABC, UCLA hosts Stanford with Pac-12 South supremacy on the line. UCLA is tied with the Arizona squads with a win over both. A win and there in, but even under tough minded Jim Mora they have reverted into Mr. Softy (h/t @SolidVerbal) style of play at times the last couple seasons. Stanford's defense is still legit but the offense has regressed from last season and has trouble putting up points. Power Pick: UCLA by 30.01 My Pick: UCLA 38-23 Line: UCLA -5.5
#23 Arizona State (68.91) at #29 Arizona (67.23) (3.44), 2:30 pm FOX, Anu Solomon is a huge ? for this game as he would be a huge loss for the Wildcats and a major problem for the Sun Devils. The Sun Devils for their part have been Dr. Jeckel at home and Mr. Hyde on the road and that could cost them a shot at the divisional crown. Power Pick: Arizona by 1.75 My Pick: Arizona 38-35 Line: No Line Available
#30 Colorado State (30.48) at #52 Air Force (8.70) (2.62), 2:30 pm CBSSN, Colorado State at Air Force is a sneaky under the radar game (no pun intended) and nobody is going to watch it. Colorado State may be the best mid-major team and has been impressive throughout Jim McElwain's third season. Colorado State should pull out the victory at Air Force but with a stingy and much improved defense the Falcons are gonna give them problems. Power Pick: Colorado State by 19.17 My Pick: Colorado State 24-20 Line: Colorado State -7
#53 East Carolina (21.63) at #119 Tulsa (-5.97) (1.98), 7:30 pm ESPNU, East Carolina gets an easty win at Tulsa and keeps the pressure on the top three in the AAC with two weeks to go. Power Pick: East Carolina by 1.98 My Pick: East Carolina 35-20 Line: East Carolina -17.5

Saturday, November 29th, 2014:
#12 Georgia Tech (39.19) at #6 Georgia (61.98) (5.13), 11:00 am SEC Network, Georgia Tech heads to Sanford Stadium to prove that their underdog complex in no way exists. The offense is clicking and Georgia controls none of their destiny a half game back of Missouri. Georgia Tech for their part are locked into the ACC championship game and may be more focused on preparing for Florida State. Power Pick: Georgia by 27.93 My Pick: Georgia 31-20 Line: Georgia -12
#81 Kentucky (27.78) at #16 Louisville (47.03) (3.95), 11:00 am ESPN2, Louisville has the better offense and defense and is more talented. Kentucky is a year, maybe two, away and just hasn't shown a great amount of improvement over the year. Power Pick: Louisville by 23.20 My Pick: Louisville 24-10 Line: Loiusville -13
#48 South Carolina (64.18) at #20 Clemson (49.16) (4.72), 11:00 am ESPN, I'm riding with Spurrier until he loses and I don't have much to back that up with other than Deshaun Watson is out. Power Pick: South Carolina by 10.30 My Pick: South Carolina 28-20 Line: Clemson -4.5
#54 Cincinnati (19.94) at #67 Temple (-3.05) (1.59), 11:00 ESPNEWS, Cincinnati heads to Temple which has been a house of horrors for me betting-wise and for opposing teams playing them. Cincinnati is the better team but has allowed teams to hang around way too long either with poor play or questionable play calling and that can be dangerous on the road at Temple. Power Pick: Cincinnati by 21.40 My Pick: Cincinnati 24-21 Line: Cincinnati -7

#89 Rice (16.36) at #62 Louisiana Tech (.62) (2.19), 11:00 am CBSSN, Rice and Louisiana Tech match up to decide the Conference USA West. Louisiana Tech is 6-1 with a it's only loss in conference last week to Old Dominion. Rice also lost to Old Dominion, along with at #19 Marshall. Rice has the worst unit on the field with a defense rated 106 in F+ and the 15% difference in defense is not overcame by the 6% difference in offensive efficiency. Power Pick: Rice by 13.56 My Pick: Louisiana Tech 31-24 Line: Louisiana Tech -7
#90 Louisiana-Lafayette (22.68) at #125 Troy (-13.70) (2.01), 11:30 am ESPN3, Louisiana heads to Troy to take on the Trojans in what is going to be a charged stadium for Larry Blakeney's last game at the helm. That all being said ULL is the better team and should romp but hasn't really played like on would expect. A win here locks up the top conference bowl bid with Georgia Southern and Appalachian State ineligible for the post-season in transition year one. Power Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette by 34.37 My Pick: Louisiana-Lafayette 27-17 Line: Louiana-Lafayette -10.5
#59 Michigan (35.06) at #3 Ohio State (63.72) (5.55), 2:30 pm ABC, "The Game", for the second season provides us with an Ohio State with eyes towards National Championship and Michigan looking to play spoiler, or to at least fuck shit up. Ohio State is the better and grossly more talented team but, as you'll here too many times this weekend, throw the records out the window in this one. Ohio State closer than necessary. Power Pick: Ohio State by 34.22 My Pick: Ohio State 28-24 Line: Ohio State -21
#4 Mississippi State (67.07) at #9 Ole Miss (61.13) (4.04), 2:30 pm CBS, The Egg Bowl means something for both teams for the first time in quite a while. Ole Miss can take lil' brother down a peg, knock 'em out of the playoff and at least reclaim their dignity after the slide that started against Auburn. Mississippi State is still in the running for a playoff spot and a outside chance at the divisional title. The game is in Oxford and I think there is enough left in the Rebel offense to pull off the upset. Power Pick: Mississippi State by 1.90 My Pick: Ole Miss 28-27 Line: Mississippi State -2.5
#41 Florida (44.44) at #7 Florida State (85.42) (4.46), 2:30 pm ESPN, Florida heads to Tallahassee to take on everybody's favorite team to hate this season... The Fightin' Jameis Winstons. Florida State should win pretty handily but a slow first half and a pretty talented and stingy Gators defense will put a scare into the Seminoles with the ACC Title Game on deck. Power Pick: Florida State by 45.44 My Pick: Florida State 35-16 Line: Florida State -7.5
#10 Baylor (59.76) vs #82 Texas Tech (23.12) (Arlington), 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2, Baylor warms up for a championship Saturday showdown with Kansas State with a trip to Jerry World and a meeting with the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Kirk Kingsbury and company haven't lived up to preseason expectations. Baylor minus the hiccup in Morgantown and a de facto tie in my book with TCU this is a top ten team at worse with an upside for so much more. Power Pick: Baylor by 36.64 My Pick: Baylor 59-27 Line: Baylor -25
#31 Minnesota (50.72) at #13 Wisconsin (47.12) (4.72), 2:30 pm BTN, Minnesota heads to Madison in a battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe. This game is gonna be done quickly with both teams relying predominantly on the run. With David Cobb's status in question and Minnesota's defense the weakest unit on the field, I'm gonna take Wisconsin in a close one. Power Pick: Wisconsin by 1.11 My Pick: Wisconsin 27-24 Line: Wisconsin -14
#18 Michigan State (62.13) at #49 Penn State (29.11) (5.09), 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2, I don't see any way in which Penn State can possibly score enough points to keep up with Michigan State. Should be a defensive struggle but a couple Penn State turnovers should allow for a couple Michigan State touchdowns. Power Pick: Michigan State by 27.94 My Pick: Michigan State 24-6 Line: Michigan State -13
#24 Notre Dame (50.56) at #27 USC (69.05) (4.32), 2:30 pm FOX, Notre Dame heads to Los Angeles in a match-up that is intriguing but looked like so much more earlier in the season. Notre Dame can't stop good units, they had trouble scoring on Stanford and couldn't stop North Carolina. USC has been inconsistent but with the effects of scholarship restrictions still lingering and 7-win Sark at the helm, the deck was stacked against them. Power Pick: USC by 22.81 My Pick: USC 28-24 Line: USC -7

#104 San Jose State (-1.56) at #75 San Diego State (16.21) (2.31), 2:30 pm CBSSN, San Diego State heads into week 14 tied with Fresno State for the West division lead in the MWC. San Diego State is behind the eight ball as Fresno holds the head to head advantage in the tie. In this game San Diego State holds marginal edges in F+ offense and defense but the biggest difference is the performance of the special teams which has flipped the field both for the offense and the defense at the 47th most efficient rate. Power Pick: San Diego State by 20.09 My Pick: San Diego State 27-23 Line: No Line Available
#101 Kansas (10.03) at #21 Kansas State (42.51) (4.02), 3:00 pm Fox Sports 1, Kansas heads to Manhattan for a Thanksgiving weekend ass whoopin'. Nothing much more to say other than a slight look ahead spot for the Wildcats. Power Pick: Kansas State by 36.51 My Line: Kansas State 38-13 Line: Kansas State -27.5
#103 Connecticut (-17.67) at #40 Memphis (24.26) (1.75), 3:00 pm ESPNEWS, A win here guarantees Memphis at least a share of the AAC title. With Houston as their only conference loss on the season if UCF and Cincinnati hold serve these next two weeks Memphis wins a tie-breaker to got to the American's best bowl (Miami Beach Bowl). Hey it's a trip to Miami and out of Memphis in December. Power Pick: Memphis by 43.68 My Pick: Memphis 28-6 Line: Memphis -21
#105 ULM (-.06) at #61 Georgia Southern (18.53) (2.64), 5:00 pm ESPN3,. Georgia Southern is one of the biggest surprises of the year as this FCS-FBS transitional is on the precipice of winning the Sun Belt in year one of their move up a level. Georgia Southern runs a triple option that is immensely fun to watch. ULM has disappointed this year but a chance to knock the newcomers down a peg should make this one semi-interesting. Power Pick: Georgia Southern by 21.23 My Pick: Georgia Southern 38-20 Line: Georgia Southern -14.5
#45 Pittsburgh (24.11) at #17 Miami (FL) (41.50) (3.18), 6:00 pm ESPN2, Pitt needs this game to become bowl eligible, and Miami needs this to wash the taste of a Virginia loss out of their mouths and to not finish behind Pittsburgh in the ACC Coastal standings. I Don't really know who has the motivation or if it matters too much so I'm going with the more talented team. Power Pick: Miami by 20.57 My Pick: Miami (FL) 31-20 Line: Miami (FL) -10
#100 Hawaii (-9.72) at #110 Fresno State (16.50) (2.97), 6:00 pm, To round out just a stellar early evening slate we have Hawaii-Fresno to decide the MWC West division. Fresno wins the division with a win, Hawaii wins with a win here and losses by San Diego State and Nevada. This would also give us a match-up between a non-bowl eligible Hawaii team and a very good, Colorado, Utah or Boise State team that will just crush it. I vote chaos theory so go Rainbow Warriors. Power Pick: Fresno by 29.19 My Pick: Hawaii 17-13 Line: Fresno State -11
#8 Auburn (82.12) at #1 Alabama (61.37) (5.45), 6:45 pm ESPN, This may be the best way to end rivalry weekend and with all the turkey eaten, ain't no one staying up for the late set and will probably be in a comatose state 'bout half way through the Iron Bowl. Auburn heads to Alabama in upset mode to dash Alabama's dreams of SEC title and playoff birth. Bama is the better team all around but Auburn is no slouch and in a rivalry game it's gonna be closer than it needs to be. Power Pick: Auburn -15.30 My Pick: 24-20 Line: Alabama -9
#2 Oregon (89.27) at #68 Oregon State (38.67) (3.54), 7:00 pm ABC, The Civil War is one of the more oft slept on rivalry games in college football but it has plenty of vitriol to go around. This  year's version is looking to be too close but Oregon is certainly in a look ahead spot with the Pac-12 championship a week ahead. Power Pick: Oregon by 47.07 My Pick: Oregon 62-27 Line: Oregon -19.5
#51 Utah State (22.19) at #34 Boise State (31.65) (3.42), 9:15 pm ESPN2, This will be the game we all fall asleep watching but it should be a barn burner. A match-up that will eliminate one from the division race. A Boise win sends them to the MWC championship game as they hold the tie-breaker with Colorado State thanks to a 37-24 win on September 6th. Utah State would need a Colorado State loss due to a 16-13 loss in Fort Collins October 18th. In this one the key is gonna be Boise's ability to score on a very stingy Utah State defense and whether a Utah State team on it's fourth quarterback can keep doing enough to win. Power Pick: Boise State by 12.88 My Pick: Boise State 28-27 Line: Boise State -9

2014 Rambling Sports Week 13 CFB Preview

This week is gonna come in more pieces than usual as I am a bit behind and there is a lot to write up with 34 games that affect the top 25 or conference championship races. Once again I am using the Football Outsiders F/+ Top 25 to hightlight what I think is a better measure of the top 25.

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014:
#85 Northern Illinois (37.03) at #118 Ohio (-5.26) (2.68), 7:00 pm ESPNU, Northern Illinois heads to the other Athens to take on a Bobcat team that isn't overly good. Northern sits tied atop the MAC West with Toledo and Western Michigan at 5-1 and a half game up on Central Michigan. Weird things happen in #MACtion but I think NIU is too much better for it to really affect the outcome too much. Power Pick: Northern Illinois by 39.61 My Pick: Northern Illinois 24-10 Line: Northern Illinois -1

Wednesday, November 19th, 2014:
#107 Bowling Green (19.14) at #68 Toledo (26.48) (2.29), 7:00 pm ESPN2, Bowling Green hedads to tledo where three different quarterbacks are out or questions (1 BGSU/2 Toledo) and a running back is still questionable. I 'm still gonna back Toledo for the purposes here with a conference championship in the balance for them but I wouldn't feel good about it. Power Pick: Toledo by 9.63 My Pick: Toledo 24-21 Line: Toledo by -7.5

Notes: This is the as far as I got before kickoff of NIU-Ohio gonna work on the rest tonight.

Thursday, November 20th, 2014:

#26 Kansas State (39.18) at #28 West Virginia (27.22) (3.78), 6;00 pm FOX Sports 1, In a week of  good not great games K State at West Virginia will tell us much about what will become of the Big XII's de facto championship game in a couple of weeks. Both offenses run the spread but take on the personalities of thei head coaches. Kansas State is steady and doesn't rush but will take what you give 'em. West Virginia plays like Holgo, uptempo never resting and looking for big plays. Power Pick: Kansas State -8.18 My Pick: Kansas State 27-23 Line: West Virginia -2.5

#67 North Carolina (36.35) at #25 Duke (51.80) (2.59), 6:30 pm ESPN, North Carolina heads to Duke for a Tabacco Road showdown. Duke needs to win to keep it's division title hopes alive adnd UNC should be more than willing to help them not do that. Duke has been inconsistent but so has UNC so I'll go with the better overall team. Power Pick: Duke by 18.03 My Pick: Duke 34-27 Line: Duke -6

Friday, November 21st, 2014:
#44 Air Force (10.60) at #80 San Diego State (15.21) (2.31), 8:30 pm CBSSN, Air Force heads to San Diego State needing a win to keep their slim hopes alive a half game back of three teams in the Mountain division of the Mountain West. San Diego State for their part is in a three way tie at 3-3 in the West division that's gonna be much clearer after this game and the Nevada-Fresno game on Saturday. Air Force comes in with an offense brings an ok offense to the table and a defense that gets the job done at a suprisingly good rate. SDSU has the unfortunate honor of having an offense and defense with the same PPP (.334) which is good for the defense but a bit of an issue on offense.  Power Pick: San Diego State by 6.92 My Pick: Air Force 24-21 Line: San Diego State -4.5
#97 San Jose State (.05) at #51 Utah State (21.49) (2.62), 8:30 pm ESPN2, Mountain West double header in the preview with Utah State (5-1 Mountain) hosting San Jose State (2-4 1GB West). San Jose State has an outside shot much like Air Force but  unlike Air Force they don't have a whole lot going for them. Utah State is on quarterback 156 (see: four) but keep on chugging. Power Pick: Utah State by 24.05 My Pick: Utah State 38-21 Line: Utah State -13

Saturday, November 22nd, 2014:
#88 Indiana (38.66) at #3 Ohio State (61.59) (5.55), 11:00 am BTN, Ohio State welcomes a familiar foe whom has given them problems a couple of years here, as of late. Indiana for their part have beaten Missouri and lost to Michigan, so your guess is as good as mine as to what they are. Ohio State should roll but Tevon Coleman is gonna be a boatload of fun against this defense. Power Pick: Ohio State by 28.48 My Pick: Ohio State 45-20 Line: Ohio State -34.5
#93 Kansas (10.22) at #12 Oklahoma (64.27) (4.99), 11:00 am FOX Sports 1, Kansas heads to Oklahoma after giving TCU a run for his money but, yeah not really expecting them to do it again. Power Pick: Oklahoma by 59.04 My Pick: Oklahoma 35-17 Line: Oklahoma -25
#18 Marshall (36.63) at #87 UAB (-12.12) (.84), 11:00 am, Marshall and the terror machine contines it's run through Conference USA with a trip to UAB and should continue their run of dominance. Power Pick: Marshall by 47.91 My Pick: Marshall 45-17 Line: Marshall -20
#63 Rutgers (33.18) at #22 Michigan State (60.16) (4.53), 11:00 am BTN, Rutgers visits Sparty this weekend as their welcome tour winds to an end in pain and loathing. Much like Hunter S. Thompson at the Kentucky Derby, Rutgers will wake up to realize they were the Big Ten face they were looking for all along. Power Pick: Michigan State by 31.51 My Pick: Michigan State 38-13 Line: Michigan State -22
#35 Minnesota (46.22) at #23 Nebraska (40.09) (5.12), 11:00 am ESPN, Minnesota gave a valiant effort against Oiho State but lost at home in the snow with Dilly Bars. Nebraska... well we all know what they did last weekend and are disgusted by it. Nebraska is the better team and Minnesota's defense isn't as good as Wisconsin's have grown into. Nebraska close at home but watch that Gopher rushing total. Power Pick: Minnesota by 1.01 My Pick: Nebraska 28-24 Line: Nebraska -10

#127 SMU (-15.35) at #59 Central Florida (29.88) (3.19), 11:00 am ESPNEWS, SMU heads to UCF who at 4-1 in the American is tied with Cincy and a half game back of Memphis. SMU has looked better in recent weeks but that was against the dregs and UCF is a different and heftier challenge. Power Pick: UCF by 48.43 My Pick: UCF 31-10 Line: UCF -28

#74 Washington State (32.13) at #19 Arizona State (67.01) (3.80), 12:00 pm Pac-12 Network, Washington State heads to Arizona State to take on an Arizona State team that no longer controls their own destiny after a loss at Oregon State in the annual, as the Shutdown Fullcast put it, "win to to keep good guy Mike Reilly at Oregon State.". Arizona State still has a better than average chance at the conference but no longer is the master of destiny. Power Pick: Arizona State by 38.68 My Pick: Arizona State 48-45 Line: Arizona State -16.5
#49 Western Michigan (-8.85) at #77 Central Michigan (21.87) (1.39), 12:00 pm ESPN3, We've come to that point in the season where we have to rectify with the fact we have a double directional school match-up that is a major part of a MAC divisional race. WMU is tied with Toledo and NIU at 5-1 in the conference and CMU is at 5-2 and needs to win to have any chance (obviously). WMU is a team that is underrated by my rankings but CMU is oddly high and shouldn't be discounted. For WMU the offense is really good at .521 points per play on offense and a opponents PPP at .338. CMU for their part has the defense at the WMU level and an offense that, well, isn't. Power Pick: Central Michigan by 32.10 My Pick: Western Michigan 27-24 Line: Central Michigan -1
#84 New Mexico (-6.26) at #31 Colorado State (30.11) (1.83), 12:30 pm, New Mexico heads to Fort Collins to take on a Colorado State team that should take another step closer to making the last week of the Mountain West conference season a lot of fun while tied with Boise State and Utah State. Power Pick: Colorado State by 38.19 My Pick: Colorado State 31-13 Line: Colorado State -21.5
#4 Ole Miss (62.14) at #30 Arkansas (34.03) (4.05), 2:30 pm CBS, Ole Miss heads to the Fighting Berts to take on a team who just broke a 17 game SEC loss streak. Treadwell is gone and the Ole Miss defense has regressed just a touch but Arkansas has no passing game and I'm not sure they can put up more than 20 points on this Ole Miss defense. Gonna be just a 24-20 that leaves everyone bloody and hating everything. Power Pick: Ole Miss by 24.06 My Pick: Ole Miss 24-20 Line: Ole Miss -3.5
#34 Boston College (17.23) at #10 Florida State (84.27) (4.46), 2:30 pm ESPN2, Flip it around and you've got a trap game, but at FSU and you got yourself close for a quarter and a half and then... BOOOM!!! Done. Power Pick: Florida State by 71.5 My Pick: Florida State 48-13 Line: Florida State -19.5
#13 Wisconsin (42.34) at #54 Iowa (45.41) (4.37), 2:30 pm ABC, Wisconsin heads to Iowa City with the ability to put themselves a win over Minnesota away from going to the Big Ten Championship Game. Iowa needs to win and then needs a bunch of other stuff to go there way to win the division. The good news is this should be a quick game with plenty of running clock. But it is certainly going to be a whole heaping of #B1G. Power Pick: Iowa by 7.43 My Pick: Wisconsin 28-23 Line: Wisconsin -9.5
#16 Louisville (41.97) at #24 Notre Dame (52.01) (4.79), 2:30 pm NBC, Louisville heads to South Bend to take on the Golden Domers fresh off a loss to Northwestern at home, with a walk-on former baseball player kicker. Louisville brings in one of the best defenses in the country and an offense that has continued to get better as the season continues. Power Pick: Notre Dame by 14.83 My Pick: Louisville 24-20 Line: Notre Dame -3.5
#126 Georgia State (-39.36) at #20 Clemson (49.14) (4.72), 2:30 pm ESPN3, Yeah Clemson taking the week off without going down to FCS. Power Pick: Clemson by 93.22 My Pick: Clemson 52-17 Line: Clemson -40.5
#32 Arizona (62.26) at #29 Utah (49.85) (3.76), 2:30 pm ESPN, One of the three best games of the week will sort out the south in a very real way. Utah doesn't have much of a chance but what little chance it does hinges on beating Arizona. Arizona is in a better position, a half game back of USC and tied with UCLA and ASU. I think Utah minus their best offensive weapon is going to need a great defensive performance and the Zona offense to help out a bit too. Power Pick: Arizona by 8.65 My Pick: Arizona 23-20 Line: Utah -4
#100 Tulane (7.31) at #57 East Carolina (20.69) (3.55), 2:30 pm ESPN3, Tulane heads to the east coast to take on East Carolina and lose by three touchdowns. ECU will stay .5 GB of Memphis an the AAC will stay a jumble a week longer. Power Pick: East Carolina by 16.93 My Pick: East Carolina 38-13 Line: East Carolina -18
#120 USF (2.75) at #39 Memphis (23.46) (1.75), 3:00 pm ESPNEWS, See: Tulane-ECU. Power Pick: Memphis by 22.46 My Pick: Memphis 31-13 Line: Memphis -18.5
#73 Colorado (19.59) at #2 Oregon (87.98) (4.31), 3:30 pm Pac-12 Network, Colorado heads to Eugene to be cannon fodder a year before they will push the top tier of the Pac-12. Mike McIntyre has improved this team and will have it in a place to make some noise but this just isn't their time yet. Power Pick: Oregon by 72.70 My Pick: Oregon 66-17 Line: Oregon -34
#122 Appalachian State (-.61) at #81 Louisiana-Lafayette (27.42) (2.70), 4:00 pm ESPN3, This one is a bummer to put here but Louisiana has started to play like we thought it would. With Georgia Southern unable to go to the post-season Louisiana should be the conference champ and are up two games on Appalachian State (also not Post-season eligible) and Arkansas State. Power Pick: Louisiana by 30.72 My Pick: Louisiana 31-20 Line: Louisiana -10
#11 Miami (FL) (43.00) at #40 Virginia (22.84) (3.19), 6:00 pm ESPN2, Miami heads to Virginia in a letdown spot post FSU. This should be a defensive slogfest, a snuff film if you will, and at least good for a reminder that still exists. Power Pick: Miami by 16.97 My Pick: Miami 17-13 Line: Miami -5.5
#108 Vanderbilt (23.33) at #5 Mississippi State (65.54) (4.09), 6:30 pm SEC Newtork, Yeah this evening slate sucks. Mississippi State big. Power Pick: Mississippi State by 46.30 My Pick: Mississippi State 38-10 Line: Mississippi State -30.5
#76 Oklahoma State (30.92) at #9 Baylor (57.91) (3.40), 6:30 pm FOX, This game was a lot more fun last year and fully healthy would have been fun, or at least closer this season. Baylor should cement themselves in a win and in game against Kansas State on championship sunday. Power Pick: Baylor by 30.39 My Pick: Baylor 52-20 Line: Baylor -28.5
#37 Missouri (68.79) at #38 Tennessee (26.96) (4.99), 6:30 pm ESPN, Missouri heads to Tennessee in a game that F/+ says is gonna be a lot of fun. Missouri comes in with a great defense (.261 PPP) and an offense that has been inconsistent. Tennessee is pretty good on defense (.348 PPP) but atrocious on offense (.331 PPP). Almost always go against the worst unit on the field, Misssouri in a place to wrap up the East. Power Pick: Missouri by 36.85 My Pick: Missouri 24-13 Line: Tennessee -3.5
#21 USC (69.12) at #17 UCLA (80.90) (3.83), 7:00 pm ABC, The "Best" game of the day probably isn't the best game in the Pac-12 but an interesting one non-the-less. I am not a UCLA fan but they haven't had a castastrophic loss along with having wins that leave you completely uninspired. USC has the win over Stanford and a bunch of stuff, happening? This is an enigma, wrapped inside a puzzle wrapped inside a taco shell (you know California Mexican food). Power Pick: UCLA by 15.61 My Pick: UCLA 38-31 Line: UCLA -3.5
#60 Cincinnati (19.48) at #95 UCONN (-14.20) (2.91), 7:00 pm CBSSN, Cincinnati heads to UCONN because, fuck doing fun things. Cincinnati is tied with UCF at 4-1 in the AAC a half game back of Memphis and shouldn't fall any farther back against UCONN. Power Pick: Cincinnati by 30.76 My Pick: Cincinnati 34-13 Line: Cincinnati -9.5
#36 Boise State (30.76) at #104 Wyoming (-4.42) (2.11), 9:15 pm ESPN2, A trip to Laramie as Craig Boehl gets Wyoming going shouldn't be a problem this year, but it's not quite what you want to be doing in 18 degree weather. Boise needs to win to hold serve with Colorado State and Utah State and I see them doing just that. Power Pick: Boise State by 33.07 My Pick: Boise State 27-13 Line: Boise State -13
#114 Fresno State (13.21) at #56 Nevada (27.08) (2.47), 9:30 pm ESPNU, Fresno heads to Nevada to basically eliminate one of these teams from the MWC West race. At 3-3 they come in tied with San Diego State with Hawaii and San Jose State a game back. San Jose's offense is the worst unit on the field at .244 PPP and a defense at .444 PPP leaves them at a pretty big disadvantage. Nevada wins and puts themselves in the drivers seat. Power Pick: Nevada by 16.34 My Pick: Nevada 20-10 Line: Nevada -7.5
#121 UNLV (4.61) at #96 Hawaii (-10.61) (2.34), 10:00 pm, Yeah this one won't be fun, it won't be pretty and it's going to go 'til next week but Hawaii is one game out of first in the MWC West and yeah why not cap all this off with some bullshit. Power Pick: UNLV by 12.88 My Pick: Hawaii 20-13 Line: Hawaii -10

2014 Rambling Sports Week 12 CFB Preview

This week I decided to use the F+ rankings from Football Outsiders, the combining of S&P+ created by Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) and FEI created by Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau). I used that this week to get a different perspective on the 25 best teams in the country and to give some of the conference title races some more context.

Tuesday, November 11th, 2014:
#66 Toledo (27.42) at #92 Northern Illinois (35.34) (2.25), 7:00 pm ESPN2, Toledo heads to DeKalb for a match-up that will clarify the MAC West up quite a bit. Toledo is a game up on NIU and WMU  and looks to be the best team in the conference. The per play stats favor NIU a bit as there defense is better at a slightly better rate than Toledo's offense is better. A win for Toledo would put them up 2 games on NIU and holding the tie breaker over both teams. Power Pick: Northern Illinois by 10.17 My Pick: Toledo 27-20 Line: Northern Illinois -4.5

Thursday, November 13th, 2014:
#57 East Carolina (22.52) at #64 Cincinnati (18.02) (3.04), 6:00 pm ESPN2, East Carolina and Cincinnati meet up to help clarify a muddle at teh top of the AAC. Both are a .5 GB, East Carolina had a heck of non-con season but has cooled off considerably in conference play. The key in this one might actually be the Pirates defense which has only given up .337 points per game and on a per play basis is the best unit on the field. Cincinnati for their part has strung to three straight wins after there straight losses to regain their steady, but they did it against some of the poorer side of the conference and is gonna need help to beat ECU even at home. Power Pick: East Carolina by 1.46 My Pick: East Carolina 31-21 Line: East Carolina -2.5
#49 California (22.57) at #24 USC (67.64) (4.32), 8:00 pm ESPN, Despite a bit of a fall to earth post Stanford win the Trojans are still right in the thick of things but need some help and can't afford a another loss if they have any chance at the crown. California is much improved over last season and Goff and the offense have been very good but they aren't quite where they need to be to pull off an upset like this, but the time is nigh. (3-4 North, 5-2 South) Power Pick: USC by 49.39 My Pick: USC 41-34 Line: USC -14.5

Friday, November 14th, 2014:
#119 Tulsa (-3.68) at #60 UCF (29.44) (3.19), 7:00 pm ESPN2, UCF welcomes Tulsa in a must win for Tulsa if they have any remaining aspirations for the conference crown. At 2-3 they are two games back of the conference lead and tied for seventh. UCF is tied wtih Cincy and UCF at 3-1 a half game back of Memphis. There aren't a whole lot that is redeeming statistically for Tulsa and UCF has a pretty stark defensive advantage and at least has a semi-competent offense which seems to be alluding the Golden Hurricanes. Power Pick: UCF by 36.31 My Pick: UCF 38-17 Line: UCF -19.5

Saturday, November 15th, 2014:
#3 Ohio State (59.15) at #34 Minnesota (46.50) (3.66), 11:00 am ABC, Can the surprisingly adequate Gophers give the Buckeyes a run for their money? Well not on my dime, Minnesota is a rather one dimensional team with only one real receiving threat (the excellent Maxx Williams) and a quarterback that is erratic to say the least. Ohio State and J.T. Barrett may have a bit of a hangover coming off a sublime effort in East Lansing, but I expect them to hit their stride early in the second half. If Ohio State can slow the run game down this game may get ugly early, but a sluggish OSU could make this a real interesting noon kickoff. Power Pick: Ohio State by 8.99 My Pick: Ohio State 38-20 Line: Ohio State -12
#18 Clemson (49.98) at #17 Georgia Tech (36.73) (3.47), 11:00 am ESPN, Clemson for all intents and purposes is a full game back of Florida State, because of it's loss but sits just a half game back at 6-1 in conference. A loss to Tech this week would knock them out of the running for the divisional crown and the outside chance of a big six bowl game. Tech is in a de facto tie in the coastal Duke but have played two more conference games and lost to the Blue Devils, so this is a must win on both sides. My system says Clemson is the clar choice the F/+ say this is a toss up. Power Pick: Clemson by 9.78 My Pick: Georgia Tech 24-20 Line: Clemson -3
#28 Virginia Tech (27.80) at #23 Duke (54.37) (2.59), 11:00 am EPSNU, Va Tech stands out in these rankings sitting at 4-5 overall and 1-4 in the coastal hardly seems like the #28 team in the country. They do rank number five in defnsive F/+ with the number eighty one offense and an above average special teams unit. They are gonna need to pull out all the stops against a Duke team that has the best special teams in the country and a solid O (#44) and better than expected D (#23). I got Duke here to solidify their lead on the Coastal heading into their last couple games. Power Pick: Duke by 29.17 My Pick: Duke 34-26 Line: Duke -5.5
#59 Nevada (29.12) at #46 Air Force (8.87) (2.62), 1:00 pm, A game with implications on both sides of the Mountain West divisional races, between two team that are both 3-2 in conference. Nevada is tied for first in the West with San Diego State a half game up on Fresno State. Air Force is a game and a half back of Colorado State in the Mountain but the Falcons are also a game back of both Boise and Utah and need a win here to keep the slight chance of a divisional crown open. Overall this is a pretty even matchup, with Air Force having a slight defensive advantage (.326 to .335 PPP) and Nevada being better on offense (.393 to .382). Power Pick: Nevada by 17.64 My Pick: Air Force 27-23 Line: Air Force -2
#89 Rice (16.67) at #21 Marshall (35.50) (2.25), 1:00 pm, Marshall is 5-0 in CUSA East with a 1 game lead with three to play and looking like the only undefeated team outside a major conference and one of only a handful in all. Rice is a game and a half back in the West, 4-1 in conference but they are gonna be 4-2 after this week. Power Pick: Marshall by 21.08 My Pick: Marshall 28-13 Line: Marshall -21
#7 TCU (37.82) at #102 Kansas (11.86) (2.97), 2:00 pm Fox Sports 1, Not gonna be able to pick Kansas in this one. Power Pick: TCU by 22.99 My Pick: TCU 45-13 Line: TCU -28
#6 Mississippi State (65.87) at #1 Alabama (58.51) (5.45), 2:30 pm CBS, Mississippi State heads to Tuscaloosa to try and stay undefeated. Alabama is coming off an overtime win at LSU and Mississippi State is off a bye week. I'm not sure what to think I don't think Miss State is the best team in the country but I'm not sure that is Bama either. I think the Tide defense does just enough to slow Dak down and Kiffin calls just enough of the right plays to win this game. Power Pick: Mississippi State by 1.91 My Pick: Alabama 24-21 Line: Alabama -8.5
#11 Oklahoma (61.50) at #81 Texas Tech (21.24) (4.01), 2:30 pm ESPN, Oklahoma lost to Baylor at home last week and for all intents and purposes need a miracle to win the Big XII. Tech is in shambles and doesn't know who their QB is. I'll take Oklahoma on talent but I'm not sure you wanna watch this game. Power Pick: Oklahoma by 36.25 My Pick: Oklahoma 38-17 Line: n/a
#14 Nebraska (40.84) at #19 Wisconsin (40.07) (4.72), 2:30 pm ABC, This line baffles me it's up to Wisconsin by six as I write having moved up from Wisconsin by 4 and/or five in spots. I think Nebraska is by far the better team here but my ratings disagree with me and so does the line. Unless Gordon has an all-time game like he did first half versus LSU I just don't see it happening. Winner here is the favorite for the division. Power Pick: Wisconsin by 3.95 My Pick: Line: Wisconsin -6

Note: Everything under this was updated after 6:30 pm on 11/11

#67 Northwestern at #22 Notre Dame, 2:30 pm NBC, Power Pick: Notre Dame by 34.16 My Pick: Line:
#61 Washington (52.99) at #17 Arizona (59.75) (3.44), 2:30 pm FOX, (2-4 North 3.5GB, 4-2 South 1GB) Power Pick: Arizona by 10.20 My Pick: Line:
#45 Memphis (21.44) at #99 Tulane (10.50) (1.25), 2:30 pm ESPNU, (4-1 AAC .5GU, 2-3 AAC 2GB) Power Pick: Memphis by 9.69 My Pick: Line:
#25 Utah (44.65) at #35 Stanford (55.94) (3.78), 5:00 pm Pac-12 Network, (3-3 South 2GB, 3-3 North 2.5GB) Power Pick: Stanford by 15.06 My Pick: Line:
#5 Auburn (82.42) at #13 Georgia (59.01) (5.13), 6:15 pm ESPN, (4-2 West 1.5 GB, 5-2 East T1 (Mizz 4-1)) Power Pick: Auburn by 18.28 My Pick: Line:
#9 Florida State (79.58) at #12 Miami (FL) (43.14) (3.18), 7:00 pm ABC, (6-0 Atlantic .5GU, 3-2 Coastal 1GB) Power Pick: Florida State by 33.26 My Pick: Line:
#10 LSU (50.37) at #37 Arkansas (31.54) (40.05), 7:00 pm ESPN2, (3-3 West 2.5GB, 0-5 West 5GB) Power Pick: LSU by 14.78 My Pick: Line:
#25 Michigan State (55.38) at #42 Maryland (44.87) (2.91), 7:00 pm BTN, (4-1 East 1GB, 3-2 East 2GB) Power Pick: Michigan State by 7.61 My Pick: Line:
#88 San Diego State (16.40) at #33 Boise State (29.66) (3.42), 9:15 pm ESPNU, (3-2 West 2 way tie for 1st, 4-1 Mountain .5GB T2) Power Pick: Boise State by 16.68 My Pick: Line:
#16 Arizona State (67.91) at #73 Oregon State (36.21) (3.54), 9:45 pm ESPN, (5-1 South .5GU, 1-5 North 4.5GB) Power Pick: Arizona State by 28.16 My Pick: Line:

2014 Rambling Sports Week 11 CFB Preview

Week 11 is upon us and with five weeks left in the season, and the fifth being championship week, my preview will now include games that affect how the conference races will play out.

Tuesday, November 4th, 2014:
Bowling Green (17.25) at Akron (7.48) (1.51), 7:00 pm ESPN2, We're to that time of year where you can watch football everyday of the week and there are a myriad of lesser games that have major, conference implications. Bowling Green comes in at 3-1 in the conference and a game up on Akron (2-2) in the East. My system makes the Falcons about a touchdown favorite and a look at points per play the Akron offense is the weakest unit on the field at .207 pts per play. Look for Akron to take some chances but unless they hit a couple of them Bowling Green wins. Power Pick: Bowling Green 8.26 My Pick: Bowling Green 31-24 Line: Akron -6.5

Thursday, November 6th, 2014:
#21 Clemson (48.81) at Wake Forest (.45) (3.07), 6:30 pm ESPN, Thursday we get our first ranked team of the week in a game of almost zero confidence against one of the worst BCS teams. Clemson walks no matter who QBs Clemson. Power Pick: Clemson by 45.29 My Pick: Clemson 48-10 Line: Clemson -21.5

Friday, November 7th, 2014:
Utah State (20.06) at Wyoming (-.95) (2.11), 7:00 pm ESPN2, This one was fringe for inclusion but Wyoming's performance last week and Utah State being tied with Boise a half game back in the Mountain meant this matchup could be meaningful if the top of the division falls correctly. Utah State no longer has Chuckie Keeton but they have been pretty good without him, with no bad losses. Wyoming got off to a slow start in Craig Bohl's innagural campaign and with a chance to muss up the conference divisional scenarios against Utah State and Boise in the next couple weeks this one will be a harbinger for future trouble. Power Pick: Utah State by 18.90 My Pick: Utah State 24-21 Line: Utah State -6.5
Memphis (20.22) at Temple (1.52) (1.59), 6:30 pm ESPNU, Log jam at the top of the AAC with 3-1 and Temple a half game back at 3-2. These teams are pretty much equal right now. Memphis is slightly better on offense and Temple is about the same bit better on defense. My system is a little more bullish on Memphis than I or the points per play but it should be a real good game no matter what. Power Pick: Memphis by 17.11 My Pick: Memphis 27-21 Line: Memphis -7.5

Editing Note: Anything above this line was in by 7:00 pm Tuesday

Saturday, November 8th,
#11 Georgia (55.26) at Kentucky (29.89) (3.70), 11:00 am ESPN, Georgia is still ranked 11th for some reason despite losing to both South Carolina (#49) and Florida (#39), who... for lack of a better term...are... not real good at the football thing. Kentucky is getting better but they ain't quite there yet. Power Pick: Georgia by 21.67 My Pick: Georgia 38-24 Line: Georgia -10
#13 Baylor (52.28) at #18 Oklahoma (62.44) (4.99), 11:00 am FOX Sports 1, Baylor heads to Oklahoma to regain some of the hype and much of what it lost in Morgantown. Boomer Sooner for their part hasn't looked nearly as good as they did the first half dozen or so weeks and needs a strong showing at home against the Bears. Power Pick: Oklahoma by 15.15 My Pick: Oklahoma 38-35 Line: Oklahoma -5.5
Iowa (43.30) at Minnesota (44.13), 11:00 am ESPN2, Yes a B1G matchup in Minneapolis as the loser is almost assuredly out of the Big Ten West race adn the winner needs some help and a win over Wisconsin to take the title. The winner of this game will show a lot of interest in Nebraska-Wisconsin next week. Also this game will be done by like 12:45 as both teams want to pound the rock. Power Pick: 4.50 My Pick: Iowa 31-27 Line: Iowa -1.5
#24 Duke (50.48) at Syracuse (32.50) (2.96), 11:30 am ESPN3, Duke heads to Syracuse and yeah Duke gonna win, ruin our dreams of 4-4 Coastal and have a big lead over the rest of the division. Power Pick: Duke by 15.02 My Pick: Duke 38-21 Line: Duke -3.5
Texas A&M (58.55) at #3 Auburn (82.89) (4.84), 2:30 pm CBS, Remember when everyone was so sure (me included) that A&M wasn't gonna have too tough of a transition post Manziel? Well the defense is still bad and the offense has had trouble keeping pace as Kenny Hill has come back down to earth. Heading to the plains isn't really the remedy you want in that situation and I'm not sure the Aggies have enough, well, anything to pull this one off. Power Pick: Auburn by 29.18 My Pick: Auburn 52-31 Line: Auburn -21.5
#10 Notre Dame (54.92) at #14 Arizona State (65.28) (3.80), 2:30 pm ABC, Don't think anyone would have predicted this as a power matchup this sesaon but here we are. A Notre Dame loss may slightly affect FSU's resume but Arizona State isn't a pushover and two top 15 losses aren't killer but isn't real good for the Golden Domers. I think Arizona State has too much offense for Notre Dame and just enough defense to cause troubles in the desert. Power Pick: 14.16 My Pick: Arizona State 31-28 Line: Arizona State -2.5
#20 West Virginia (28.25) at Texas (32.52) (5.33), 2:30 pm FOX Sports 1, West Virginia heads to Austin and barring a huge travel hangover will beat Texas by two scores. Texas is in major overhaul mode combined with major injury mode which combine for mild panic mode. Power Pick: Texas by 9.6 My Pick: West Virgina 38-20 Line: West Virginia -3.5
Georgia Southern (18.09) at Texas State (8.67) (2.01), 3:00 pm ESPN3, With Georgia Southern at 6-0 in conference and Texas State at 3-1 a Georgia Southern win means they go to 7-0 and only Louisiana Lafeyette at 4-0 has a shot to knock the king off his throne. This is all super unfortunate for Georgia Southern who because of transition rules can't go to a bowl game this season. Georgia Southern has been bestly on offense at .574 points per play compared to Texas State's .375. With relatively similar defenses Southerns ability to score will be the difference in this game. (GaSou 6-0, Tx St 3-1) Power Pick: Georgia Southern -7.41 My Pick: Georgia Southern 31-20 Line: Georgia Southern -12
Virginia (22.88) at #2 Florida State (78.08) (4.46), 5:30 pm ESPN, Virginia is pretty stout on defense but the couple of times I have watched them they throw way too many third down passes short of the stick even on 3rd and 3 and the likes. Florida State is by far the better team and even with flaws Winston is the difference for this year's Noles. Power Pick: Florida State by 59.66 My Pick: Florida State 34-13 Line: Florida State -19.5
#22 UCLA (75.79) at Washington (53.13) (4.08), 6:00 pm FOX Sports 1, Sometimes you have to say I don't know. I like Washington more than most but my numbers like UCLA big. The advantage I have is that I know how UCLA has played and won games that my system gives binary points for or against. I think UCLA is good but I think they are overrated and due for a fall. I'm going Washington close but I don't feel good about any part of that pick. Power Pick: UCLA by 18.58 My Pick: Washington 31-28 Line: UCLA -4.5
#25 Louisville (39.53) at Boston College (18.78) (2.85), 6:15 pm ESPN2, Ah, the away game against Boston College right after a closer than the final score loss to Florida State seems like a letdown spot. So naturally, I picked Louisville to win and cover because I'm an idiot. Power Pick: Louisville by 17.91 My Pick: Louisville 28-24 Line: Louisville -3.5
#9 Kansas State (40.05) at #7 TCU (35.57) (3.69), 6:30 pm FOX, Kansas State heads to Fort Worth and although Bill Snyder is a wizard I think my power ranks drastically underrate TCU. TCU for it's part need Boykin to pick his game up from where it was last week against West Virginia. I think the defenses are the story here but I think TCU will be able to hold Jake Waters and company in check while Boykin scores a couple late to make this a decisive Horned Frogs victory. Power Pick: Kansas State by .79 My Pick: TCU 48-27 Line: TCU -6
#6 Alabama (53.49) at #19 LSU (51.22) (5.10), 7:00 pm CBS, Oh ho ho, Les is in a position to fuck everything up. And I mean everything, he weakend Ole Miss for Auburn to take out of the picture and now he has the Tide in his sights. With a defense that is stiffening up and an offense that just needed time for freshman to grow into roles this looks like the LSU team we all expected. As for Alabama, well they may have changed coordinators but the offense looks as unspectacularily solid as usual but the defense hasn't quite gotten back to being elite. I think we see some Les magic late and bring on the Bayou chaos. Power Pick: LSU by 2.83 My Pick: LSU 31-28 Line: Alabama -6.5
#16 Ohio State (53.76) at #8 Michigan State (56.18) (4.53), 7:00 pm ABC, Ohio State heads to East Lansing to take on the "The Team Up North" State University. J.T. Barrett and the Buckeye offense have been better than during the Va Tech game they aren't a big play machine like the great Ohio State teams. The defense is stout, however, and with with Connor Cook quarterbacking the Spartans they will need to be. With a very good defense I don't see the Buckeyes doing much more than what they did at Penn State last week and see close but efficient Spartan win. Power Pick: Michigan State by 6.95 My Pick: Michigan State 27-23 Line: Michigan State -3.5
Colorado (19.84) at #12 Arizona (58.51) (3.44), 7:00 pm Pac-12 Network, Sorry Buffs, but no. Power Pick: Arizona by 42.10 My Pick: Arizona 45-23 Line: Arizona -16.5
#5 Oregon (83.15) at #17 Utah (44.65) (3.76), 9:00 pm ESPN, The desert of a four course meal of college football happens when the Ducks visit the Muss. Utah lost it's best offensive weapon last week but with their defense this may be the only game it effects them in all year. Oregon is getting healthy especially up front and guess what, it has done wonders for their efficiency. Oregon does what it always does and pulls away in the third quarter and Utah just doesn't have the weapons to mount the response. Power Pick: Oregon by 34.75 My Pick: Oregon 31-27 Line: Oregon -9
San Jose State (7.53) at Fresno State (12.32) (2.97), 9:30 pm CBSSN, With Nevada and San Diego State at 3-2 in the Mountain West West division this is an elimination game with Fresno State at 2-3 and San Jose State at 2-2. These are two teams with similar profiles. Profiles of moveable objects on defense and stagnant offenses. Fresno is at home and slightly favored by my system so we'll go Bulldogs and just keep watching Oregon-Utah. Power Pick: Fresno State by 7.7 My Pick: Fresno State 31-27 Line: Fresno State -1.5