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Saturday, August 29, 2015

Final Fantasy Football Big Board (Top 150)

Here's my final Big Board, with 150 players. It will certainly lead your wrong, but I trust my thought.

1-50
51-100
101-150
Le’Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh
Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina
Darren Sproles, RB, New Orleans
Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota
Phillip Rivers, QB, San Diego
Reggie Bush, RB, San Francisco
Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay
Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans
Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia
Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City
John Brown, WR, Arizona
Kendall Wright, WR, Tennessee
Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle
Jordan Cameron, TE, Miami
Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas
Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego
Kenny Stills, WR, Miami
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver
Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit
Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle
Devante Freeman, RB, Atlanta
Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans
C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver
Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami
Shane Vereen, RB, New York (N)
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati
Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland
Branden Oliver, RB, San Diego
Matt Forte, RB, Chicago
Tony Romo, QB, Dallas
Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee
Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona
Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City
DeVante Parker, WR, Miami
Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati
Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia
Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis
Ryan Mathews, RB, Philadelphia
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta
Devante Adams, WR, Green Bay
Seattle Seahawks, Defense
Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina
Buffalo Bills, Defense
Odell Beckham Jr, WR, New York (N)
Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta
St. Louis Rams, Defense
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit
Houston Texans, Defense
Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay
Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh
New York Jets, Defense
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver
Eric Decker, WR, New York (A)
Miami Dolphins, Defense
Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore
Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo
Denver Broncos, Defense
Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis
Charles Johnson, WR, Minnesota
Stephen Gostkowski, K, New England
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay
Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego
Adam Vinatieri, K, Indianapolis
LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo
Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay
Arizona Cardinals, Defense
DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia
Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco
Carolina Panthers, Defense
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston
Martellus Bennett, TE, Chicago
Detroit Lions, Defense
Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England*
Julian Edelman, WR, New England
Minnesota Vikings, Defense
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago
David Cobb, RB, Tennessee
Dan Carpenter, K, Buffalo
Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay
Gio Bernard, RB, Cincinnati
Cody Parkey, K, Philadelphia
Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville
Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville
Dan Bailey, Dallas
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans
LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England
Steven Hauschka, K, Seattle
Golden Tate, WR, Detroit
C.J. Spiller, RB, New Orleans
Justin Tucker, K, Baltimore
DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington
Joique Bell, RB, Detroit
Matt Bryant, K, Atlanta
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle
Tom Brady, QB, New England
Mason Crosby, K, Green Bay
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh
Mike Wallace, WR, Minnesota
Blair Walsh, K, Minnesota
Alfred Morris, RB, Washington
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia
New England Patriots, Defense
Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona
Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Tennessee
Phil Dawson, K, San Francisco
Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas
Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona
Caleb Sturgis, K, Miami
Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland
T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville
Philadelphia Eagles, Defense
Chris Ivory, RB, New York (A)
Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis
Torrey Smith, WR, San Francisco
Andre Johnson, WR, Indianapolis
Tre Mason, RB, St. Louis
Victor Cruz, WR, New York (N)
Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia
Jason Witten, TE, Dallas
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Pittsburgh
Rashad Jennings, RB, New York (N)
Pierre Garcon, WR, Washington
Alfred Blue, RB, Houston
Arian Foster, RB, Houston
Anquan Boldin, WR, San Francisco
Jerrick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota
Peyton Manning, QB, Denver
Steve Smith, WR, Baltimore
Roddy White, WR, Atlanta
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans
Knile Davis, RB, Kansas City
Brandon LaFell, WR, New England
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Minnesota
Malcolm Floyd, WR, San Diego
Brandon Marshall, WR, New York (A)
Eli Manning, QB, New York (N)
Eddie Royal, WR, Chicago
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore
Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami

*Gronkowski sits here because my Big Board is based on a league with a WR/TE positions not a separate one for each. This deflates the value of all TEs. For Gronk I would have him in the between Cobb & Jones range depending on the league. So if you want to adjust I’d suggest moving Gronk up 15 spots and the rest up 7-10 or so.

Friday, August 28, 2015

Final Fantasy Positional Rankings

Here we are another set of rankings that changed both more and less than I would have thought. Thanks for reading and enjoy.

Running Back
Stars (1-7)
Starters (8-14)
Starters With Questions (14-22)
Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh
Lamar Miller, Miami
Alfred Morris, Washington
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati
Andre Ellington, Arizona
Eddie Lacy, Green Bay
Justin Forsett, Baltimore
Joseph Randle, Dallas
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City
Frank Gore, Indianapolis
Latavius Murray, Oakland
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
LeSean McCoy, Buffalo
Chris Ivory, Jets
C.J. Anderson, Denver
DeMarco Murray, Philadelphia
Rashad Jennings, Giants
Matt Forte, Chicago
Mark Ingram, New Orleans
Arian Foster, Houston


Jonathan Stewart, Carolina
The order has changed up to, but not by much, and with lone addition C.J. Anderson. Anderson moved up and into the top group, because Ball and Hillman are both clearly backup options to Anderson. Foster dropped out of tier 2 because of his injury, but maybe not as far as you’d think. Miller is the big jumper here, from 17 to 8. I wouldn’t have expected it, but I think Miller is the clear one in a Miami on the verge of a jump. McCoy and Murray dropped, because the more I thought about drafting either at ADP just didn’t work for me. Foster falls to 21, where even if he misses 4-6 games he will give you first round value over the second half of the season. Hill jumps into the top 10, and he’s still one of the most puzzling pieces to the fantasy puzzle. With options I don’t love who were previously above him, well, here we are. Ellington has been creeping up and I think it’s a case of no competition and hopefully a case of less is more on touches. To round out Ingram, Randle, L. Murray, Ivory, and Stewart are all lead backs in varying degrees of goodness.
Flex-ible Options (23-30)
Top Backups (31-38)
Solid Backups (39-49)
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati
Darren Sproles, Philadelphia
Melvin Gordon, San Diego
LeGarette Blount, New England
Reggie Bush, San Francisco
Ameer Abdullah, Detroit
C.J. Spiller, New Orleans
Shane Vereen, New York (N)
Devante Freeman, Atlanta
Joique Bell, Detroit
Branden Oliver, San Diego
Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia
T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville
DeAngelo Williams, Pittsburgh
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay
Todd Gurley, St. Louis
Alfred Blue, Houston
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco
Tre Mason, St. Louis
Jerrick McKinnon, Minnesota
David Cobb, Tennessee
Knile Davis, Kansas City
Jay Ajayi, Miami


Tevin Coleman, Atlanta


Duke Johnson, Cleveland


Denard Robinson, Jacksonville
Tier four has a two high upside 2nd options (Abdullah may start as Detroit’s first), 1st or 2nd year players, and a player that flashed a couple years ago before injuries slowed his career projection to a stop. Gordon, Abdullah, and Crowell have the upside for me and the talent. Freeman and Cobb are better than their competition. Hyde and Martin, don’t really have competition. 31-38 is a pretty straight forward, Blount is the starter to start the season, but I’m just not feeling it, Yeldon is the starter in Jacksonville but I don’t want any part of him, and Gurley will be great but they’re playing it slow and Mason will play more early on at least. Davis, Bernard, and Spiller are second options, and Bell is hurt and the default second option. Of the backup options in the 39-49 range, Williams and Blue are behind players that will miss time early, Ajayi, Coleman, and Duke are all rookies, with Johnson having the highest upside pairing up with Crowell. Robinson was good, but Yeldon fits scheme as a bell cow, meaning his upside is probably around the Sproles or Vereen upside. The rest are second options of offenses with varying degrees of competence.
Rookies & Lottery Tickets (50-67)
Dropped Out
David Johnson, Arizona (49)
68) Chris Sims, Tampa Bay (51)
Cameron Artis-Payne, Carolina (NR)
69) Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay (54)
James Starks, Green Bay (57)
70) Montee Ball, Denver (58)
Josh Robinson, Indianapolis (45)
71) Robert Turbin, Seattle (60)
Matt Jones, Washington (NR)
73) Steven Ridley, New York (A) (61)
Khiry Robinson, New Orleans (NR)
76) Travaris Cadet, New England (62)
Bishop Sankey, Tennessee (52)
77) Ronnie Hillman, Denver (65)
Buck Allen, Baltimore (59)

Andre Williams, New York (N) (66)

Fred Jackson, Buffalo (64)

Terrance West, Cleveland (34)

Darren McFadden, Dallas (53)

Lorenzo Taliaferro, Baltimore (NR)

Roy Helu, Oakland (NR)

Jeremy Langford, Chicago (NR)

James White, New England (NR)

Danny Woodhead, San Diego (63)

Jonas Gray, New England (NR)

Johnson, Artis-Payne, Allen, Jones, Langford are all rookies with clear shots at #2 roles and are talented players. The rest are #2s or in a couple cases #4s who I think are talented or behind meh starters. On the dropped out side, well they all dropped out of the top 67 and are options that should be watched on waiver wires.

Wide Receivers
Stars (1-4)
Starters (5-11)
Starters With Questions (12-19)
Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh
Randall Cobb, Green Bay
Deandre Hopkins, Houston
Dez Bryant, Dallas
Julio Jones, Atlanta
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago
DeAnthony Thomas, Denver
Calvin Johnson, Detroit
Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay
A.J. Green, Cincinnati
Odell Beckham, New York (N)
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis
Golden Tate, Detroit

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay
DeSean Jackson, Washington

Emmanuel Sanders, Denver
Andre Johnson, Indianapolis


Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia
The big change up top is the loss of Jordy, and you’ll see that there are no other changes in the top two tiers. Tier three has seen a major overhaul and combined with tier four to make a bit more of a usable tier. I’m all in on Robinson this season, and despite his QB, he’s going to get a ton of targets.
Low Starters, High Flex/3rds (20-30)
Good Flex Options/3rds
(31-44)
Upside/Injured Starters
(45-54)
Brandon Marshall, New York (A)
Keenan Allen, San Diego
DeVante Parker, Miami
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans
Julian Edelman, New England
Torrey Smith, San Francisco
John Brown, Arizona
Mike Wallace, Minnesota
Victor Cruz, New York (N)
Jarvis Landry, Miami
Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City
Roddy White, Atlanta
Amari Cooper, Oakland
Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee
Brandon LaFell, New England
Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia
Michael Floyd, Arizona
Malcolm Floyd, San Diego
Devante Adams, Green Bay
Pierre Garcon, Washington
Eddie Royal, Chicago
Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh
Anquan Boldin, Arizona
Corey Brown, Carolina
Eric Decker, New York (A)
Steve Smith, Baltimore
Cody Latimer, Denver
Sammy Watkins, Buffalo
Kendall Wright, Tennessee
Marvin Jones, Cincinnati
Charles Johnson, Minnesota
Kenny Stills, Miami


Terrance Williams, Dallas


Marques Colston, New Orleans


Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona

The second half of the former Fine Starters tier, these are possession 2nds, starters who I’m wary of target upside and a few rookies. Adams and Cooks are second year players I’m probably too low on. Both will see a high amount of targets, and I’m admittedly more open to Cooks just busting out, but Cooks didn’t flash on a so-so receiving corps last season, and all the underlying studies say Adams wasn’t great last season. We’ll call the fifth tier the old standbys. Other than Allen, Green-Beckham, and Stills this is a collection of players that have been in league for a few years, who we have a pretty good grasp of place, talent, and regression. Parker is my Beckham this year, not to say that he will take the league by storm, but an injured rookie who will impact your fantasy season when he breaks into the starting lineup for the Dolphins. Cruz, White, and Lafell are all hurt and Royal and Brown have ascending to roles because of injury and not talent, and worry me.
Note: The Bryant news came out while I was writing this, he would have been 19th without the suspension and is now 27th. Still like him, just drops a round or two.
Lottery Tickets (55-74)
Dwayne Bowe, Cleveland
Doug Baldwin, Seattle
Cecil Shorts, Houston
Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati
Marques Lee, Jacksonville
Michael Crabtree, Oakland
James Jones, New York (N)
Phillip Dorsett, Indianapolis
Breshad Perriman, Baltimore
Harry Douglas, Tennessee
Marques Wheaton, Pittsburgh
Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis
Devin Funchess, Carolina
Brian Quick, St. Louis
Taylor Gabriel, Cleveland
Nick Toon, New Orleans
Percy Harvin, Buffalo
Rashad Greene, Jacksonville
Jeremy Kearse, Seattle
Andrew Hawkins, Cleveland
These are you lottery tickets, with upside and talent, but roadblacks or major questions in the way of breakouts. The Dorsett through Gabriel group is where I think the greatest value is if not the highest expected point totals.

Quarterback
Elite (Luck)
Really Good (2-6)
Wait, and Be Just Fine (7-17)
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
Phillip Rivers, San Diego

Russell Wilson, Seattle
Tony Romo, Dallas

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
Ryan Tannehill, Miami

Peyton Manning, Denver
Cam Newton, Carolina

Drew Brees, New Orleans
Matt Ryan, Atlanta


Matthew Stafford, Detroit


Tom Brady, New England


Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota


Eli Manning, New York (N)


Joe Flacco, Baltimore


Jay Cutler, Chicago
Jordy’s injury takes enough off Rodgers for me that it drops him to the top of tier 2, and that leaves Luck as the only elite fantasy quarterback. Not much change in tiers 1 & 2, but 3 is where the difference is. I combined Tiers 3 & 4 and made some order changes. Newton dropped a bit on the Benjamin news, because, who outside of Olsen do you trust at all. Tannehill is my darling this offseason and that, like Lamar Miller, could mean the success or failure of a few of my fantasy teams.

Tight End
Elite (Gronk)
High End Starters (2-5)
Low End Starters (6-10)
Rob Gronkowski, New England
Greg Olsen, Carolina
Julius Thomas, Jacksonville

Jimmy Graham, Seattle
Jason Witten, Dallas

Travis Kelce, Kansas City
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia

Michael Bennett, Chicago
Jordan Cameron, Miami


Delonte Walker, Tennessee
Tier two lost two players and gained one. I switched Bennett and Thomas on QB concerns for Thomas, and a bump for Bennett with White out. I was too far down on Kelce and adjusted accordingly. The Indianapolis TEs adjustment took place, and I’m certainly skeptical of Eifert and his breakout. Williams was the only other tight end to fall out of the top ten tight ends.
Solid Backups (11-17)
Lottery Tickets
Maxx Williams, Baltimore
Jordan Reed, Washington
Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis
Larry Donnell, New York (N)
Heath Miller, Pittsburgh
Richard Rodgers, Green Bay
Coby Fleener, Indianapolis
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay
Charles Clay, Buffalo
Antonio Gates, San Diego
Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati
Vernon Davis, San Francisco
Jared Cook, St. Louis
Owen Daniels, Denver

Mychal Rivera, Oakland

Jace Amaro, New York (A)

Ladarius Green, San Diego

Eric Ebron, Detroit

Josh Hill, New Orleans

Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota
Rodgers and Seferian-Jenkings are the high upside guys in the lottery ticket category, but they are nowhere near sure things.

Kickers and Defense
Kickers
Defense
Stephen Gostkowski, New England
Seattle Seahawks
Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis
Buffalo Bills
Dan Carpenter, Buffalo
St. Louis Rams
Cody Parkey, Philadelphia
Houston Texans
Dan Bailey, Dallas
New York Jets
Steven Haushka, Seattle
Miami Dolphins
Justin Tucker, Baltimore
Denver Broncos
Matt Bryant, Atlanta
Arizona Cardinals
Mason Crosby, Green Bay
Carolina Panthers
Blair Walsh, Minnesota
Detroit Lions
Caleb Sturgis, Miami
Minnesota Vikings
Phil Dawson, San Francisco
New England Patriots
Greg Zuerlein, St. Louis
Philadelphia Eagles
Brandon McManus, Denver
Baltimore Ravens
Matt Prater, Detroit
Kansas City Chiefs
Sebastian Janikowski, Oakland
Dallas Cowboys
Chandler Catanzaro, Arizona
Green Bay Packers
Nick Folk, New York
Cincinnati Bengals
Garrett Hartley, Pittsburgh
Cleveland Browns
Nick Novak, San Diego
San Francisco 49ers
Mike Nugent, Cincinnati
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ryan Succop, Tennessee
Indianapolis Colts
Graham Gano, Carolina
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Scobee, Jacksonville
Atlanta Falcons

This’ll be my last update before you draft and the season. Good luck to everyone and I’ll have a big board up in the next couple of days. And hopefully a bunch of college football previews. As always let me know what you think, where you disagree, and as always why I’m an idiot. Thanks for reading.