2015 Rambling Sports Week 3 CFB Picks

Record

Week	Straight Up	Against the Spread
1	92.3% (12-1)	42.3% (5-7-1)
2	78.6% (12-3)	50% (8-7)
Season	85.7% (24-4)	48.2% (13-14-1)

Starting to come back a bit against the spread, but it’s early and, well, this could really go either way. A few more losses, but even my losses weren’t all that bad. Hopefully we can turn it around against the spread.

Week 2 turned out to be more exciting and important than originally suspected, produced some eye opening results. Week 3 looks better, especially to start and that could mean a few less fireworks. 

Thursday, September 17^th, 2015

#11 Clemson (-6) at Louisville, 6:30 pm ESPN

So the question abounds about what we saw week 1 between Louisville and Auburn. Both came out and stunk up the joint week 2 against Houston and Jacksonville State respectively. Louisville looked like a very good defensive team with a young offense. Well that held up one week, as Houston came in and ran rough shod, and now Clemson comes in, and Louisville needs to win. Clemson will score points, but the key here is Louisville waking up from last week’s humiliation. Clemson 31-17.

Friday, September 18^th, 2015

#9 Florida State (-7.5) at Boston College, 7:00 pm ESPN

The offseason upset special for the Seminoles, and the first potential loss on the schedule means we get our first real look at a young Seminole squad. FSU has been fine, but inconsistent in their handling of a soft slate. Now they run into some #Dudes. Boston College game the ‘Noles a run for their money last season. A season, in which they upset USC at home early in the year. I think Florida State is too talented, but look for a scare deep into the third quarter for the ‘Noles. 28-17.

Saturday, September 19^th, 2015

Air Force at #4 Michigan State, 11:00 am ABC

Memphis at Bowling Green, 2:00 pm ESPN3

Michigan State, like Notre Dame later, is a top ten team welcoming a triple option offense who could certainly cause trouble. For Michigan State this probably means a closer than expected three quarters, leading to a 27-13 win. Now to the best game of the week. Alright, that’s a little hyperbole but it’s certainly a top three game. Memphis-Bowling Green pairs two of the best group of five teams. Memphis lost a good amount from last year’s defense, but they have the best offense of the Fuentes era, and a defense that should grow into their own. Bowling Green, put a scare into Tennessee and then put a whooping on Maryland. Memphis, might be their toughest non-con test (probably Tennessee). This should be a bit of a shootout and the winner has a leg up on the rest of the group of five and will be the early season small guy darling. I say Bowling Green pulls it out in a close one 38-35.

Northern Illinois at #1 Ohio State (-34.5), 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2

#14 Georgia Tech (-2.5) at #8 Notre Dame, 2:30 pm NBC

#18 Auburn at #13 LSU (-7), 2:30 pm CBS

Ohio State gets its toughest test since Virginia Tech, but NIU isn’t the giant slayer it has been in recent years. Ohio State rolls in this one 41-10. The 2:30 slate is pretty good this week, Georgia Tech-Notre Dame may be the best game of the week and that’s without ND’s injuries and taking the redshirt off of Brandon Wimbush. I think Kizer is going to be fine, Zaire wasn’t all that experienced and Kizer didn’t shrink from his role last week. Georgia Tech has been a juggernaut so far this season, but against much lesser opponents. Notre Dame has had troubles with the triple option, and this may be the best version they have faced. That said Notre Dame has one of their better defenses in recent seasons, and at least some suspense about their offensive plan. I haven’t been able to really envision the game script to this one, so we’ll say 28-27 ND in the upset. Auburn-LSU looks like the possible best game on the schedule but there is one big flaw with just looking at the rankings and that’s both have huge flaws, and they start at QB. Auburn lets theirs throw but he can’t see defenders, and LSU won’t let theirs throw. So then it comes down to the defenses and non-QB talent and LSU wins in both these categories. First, Auburn doesn’t have a Leonard Fournette (not many teams do) and, although Muschamp has made strides with the Auburn D, it isn’t quite where it needs to be. LSU 20-17 in an ugly slugfest.

South Carolina at #7 Georgia (-17), 5:00 pm ESPN

Stanford at #6 USC (-10), 7:00 pm ABC

#15 Mississippi at #2 Alabama (-7), 8:15 pm ESPN

A duo of top ten teams start of the evening slate against underwhelming conference opponents. South Carolina seems to give Georgia fits in years in which they underwhelm and it has Bulldog fans freaking the fuck out. I don’t think they have much to worry about, Georgia 41-24. Stanford lost to Northwestern, then ripped through UCF 31-7 last week. USC beat Idaho 59-9 last week, and has looked like a top ten team to start the season. Stanford is their first big test, but I think USC has enough defense and too much offense for the Cardinal, 38-17. Ole Miss-Alabama should be the best game of the week, but this is Chad Kelly’s first test at Ole Miss and that’s at least cause for pause. What isn’t in question in the ferociousness of the Rebels defense; Led by Nkemdiche this unit will give Kiffin fits, and will be our proof in the pudding about Jacob Coker. I think this is as close a matchup as we’ll have this season, Alabama 27-24, with home field as the difference.

#19 BYU at #10 UCLA (-17), 9:30 pm FS1

Is anyone talking about BYU-UCLA, a pair of freshmen (yes there is a considerable age difference) take the field with undefeated squads, and in BYU’s case against some impressive competition. Josh Rosen is rightfully the story. The 18 year old phenom has been as good as advertised in UCLA’s first two game. That said. Don’t sleep on Tanner Mangum, at 22 he’s a very old true freshmen but he’s shown moxie and has led the Cougars to victory over Nebraska and Boise State since taking over for Taysom Hill. I think UCLA comes out on top, but this is going to be an exciting shootout. UCLA 41-35.

There we are, ready for week 3 and a good slate of football, at least from a 10,000 foot view. Remember, all lines are as of publishing, they will change. Use my predicted scores are my guide to the spreads that change. Thanks for reading have a great third weekend of college football.