Alright so I finished up my pre-season rankings for my prediction system so I decided to make some lists to illustrate some things that came from that.
Top 25
Top 25
Rank
|
Team
|
Conference
|
Rating
|
HFA
|
1
|
Alabama
|
SEC
|
30.37
|
5.49
|
2
|
LSU
|
SEC
|
30.33
|
5.46
|
3
|
Stanford
|
PAC
|
29.03
|
3.91
|
4
|
USC
|
PAC
|
28.11
|
4.20
|
5
|
Tennessee
|
SEC
|
26.93
|
5.39
|
6
|
Washington State
|
PAC
|
23.19
|
3.14
|
7
|
Washington
|
PAC
|
22.57
|
4.09
|
8
|
Michigan
|
B1G
|
22.42
|
5.73
|
9
|
Clemson
|
ACC
|
22.40
|
5.15
|
10
|
Florida State
|
ACC
|
21.51
|
4.57
|
11
|
Utah
|
PAC
|
21.46
|
3.91
|
12
|
Georgia
|
SEC
|
21.39
|
5.25
|
13
|
Arkansas
|
SEC
|
21.00
|
4.24
|
14
|
Oklahoma
|
BXII
|
20.67
|
5.12
|
15
|
North Carolina
|
ACC
|
19.60
|
3.51
|
16
|
Oklahoma State
|
BXII
|
19.59
|
4.02
|
17
|
Florida
|
SEC
|
19.10
|
5.11
|
18
|
Mississippi State
|
SEC
|
19.05
|
4.30
|
19
|
Oregon
|
PAC
|
19.01
|
4.38
|
20
|
Michigan State
|
B1G
|
18.56
|
4.67
|
21
|
Louisville
|
ACC
|
17.49
|
3.77
|
22
|
BYU
|
Indep
|
17.13
|
3.99
|
23
|
Pittsburgh
|
ACC
|
16.92
|
3.02
|
24
|
Texas A&M
|
SEC
|
15.97
|
5.54
|
25
|
UCLA
|
PAC
|
15.86
|
3.99
|
Here we are, the
first Top 25 of the season and the first thing to say is that these are not how
I think the final Top 25 will look but who my system has as the best teams. There
are a lot of Pac-12 and SEC teams up top and some of them are going to fall
because of results. Some are going to fall because they were misevaluated by the
numbers. The first teams I’m a little worried about are the Washington team,
Mississippi State, and Pittsburgh. Other than that this is a fun place to start
a conversation.
Power Five & Group of Five Top 10s
Rk
|
Team
|
Conf
|
Rat
|
O.Rk
|
Rk
|
Team
|
Conf
|
Rat
|
O.Rk
|
|
1
|
BYU
|
Indep
|
17.13
|
22
|
1
|
Alabama
|
SEC
|
30.37
|
1
|
|
2
|
WKU
|
CUSA
|
12.93
|
36
|
2
|
LSU
|
SEC
|
30.33
|
2
|
|
3
|
Notre Dame
|
Indep
|
9.42
|
41
|
3
|
Stanford
|
PAC
|
29.03
|
3
|
|
4
|
San Diego State
|
MWC
|
7.89
|
44
|
4
|
USC
|
PAC
|
28.11
|
4
|
|
5
|
Bowling Green
|
MAC
|
7.85
|
45
|
5
|
Tennessee
|
SEC
|
26.93
|
5
|
|
6
|
Houston
|
AAC
|
7.53
|
47
|
6
|
Washington State
|
PAC
|
23.19
|
6
|
|
7
|
Temple
|
AAC
|
7.24
|
49
|
7
|
Washington
|
PAC
|
22.57
|
7
|
|
8
|
Western Michigan
|
MAC
|
6.95
|
50
|
8
|
Michigan
|
B1G
|
22.42
|
8
|
|
9
|
USF
|
AAC
|
6.72
|
51
|
9
|
Clemson
|
ACC
|
22.40
|
9
|
|
10
|
Memphis
|
AAC
|
6.59
|
53
|
10
|
Florida State
|
ACC
|
21.51
|
10
|
A different look here
as BYU was the only Group of Five team in the Top 25. I think this shows just
how stark the dichotomy between the big guys and the little guys. Oh and most
are going to be wondering why Houston and Notre Dame are so low. They both lost
quite a bit of talent from last season, but they both have big tests early to
prove me wrong.
Conference Ranks
Rk
|
Conference
|
Ave.
|
Best
|
Worst
|
1
|
Pac-12
|
17.57
|
Stanford (29.03)
|
Oregon State (3.26)
|
2
|
SEC
|
16.72
|
Alabama (30.37)
|
South Carolina (-1.28)
|
3
|
ACC
|
10.36
|
Clemson (22.40)
|
Georgia Tech (-.86)
|
4
|
Big Ten
|
8.76
|
Michigan (22.42)
|
Illinois (-3.34)
|
5
|
Big XII
|
6.94
|
Oklahoma (20.67)
|
Kansas (-9.87)
|
6
|
AAC
|
-0.62
|
Houston (7.53)
|
UCF (-9.07)
|
7
|
Independent
|
-2.06
|
BYU (17.13)
|
UMASS (-24.11)
|
8
|
Mountain West
|
-2.54
|
San Diego State (7.89)
|
Fresno State (-14.23)
|
9
|
MAC
|
-4.47
|
Bowling Green (7.89)
|
Akron (-16.28)
|
10
|
Conference USA
|
-5.09
|
WKU (12.93)
|
UTSA (-16.93)
|
11
|
Sun Belt
|
-9.75
|
Appalachian State (5.42)
|
Texas State (-27.51)
|
The big surprise here
is that the Pac-12 is higher on average. That being said as you saw in the top
25 the SEC has two teams better than Stanford but South Carolina drags down
that rank just enough. So the top two are still the age old question… Do you
like quality up top or consistency all the way through? The rest is pretty
straight forward with the Independents drug down by UMASS and AAC and MWC being
their own separate mini-tiers.
Division Ranks
Rk
|
Division
|
Ave.
|
Best
|
Worst
|
1
|
SEC West
|
20.07
|
Alabama (30.37)
|
Auburn (9.27)
|
2
|
Pac-12 North
|
18.46
|
Stanford (29.03)
|
Oregon State (3.26)
|
3
|
Pac-12 South
|
16.69
|
USC (28.11)
|
Arizona State (7.50)
|
4
|
SEC East
|
12.47
|
Tennessee (21.39)
|
South Carolina (-1.28)
|
5
|
ACC Atlantic
|
10.54
|
Clemson (22.40)
|
Boston College (.28)
|
6
|
ACC Coastal
|
10.18
|
North Carolina (19.60)
|
Georgia Tech (-.86)
|
7
|
B1G East
|
10.00
|
Michigan (22.42)
|
Maryland (-2.10)
|
8
|
B1G West
|
7.53
|
Northwestern (14.99)
|
Illinois (-3.34)
|
9
|
AAC East
|
-0.14
|
Temple (7.24)
|
UCF (-9.07)
|
10
|
AAC West
|
-1.09
|
Houston (7.53)
|
Tulane (-8.68)
|
11
|
MWC Mountain
|
-1.33
|
Boise State (5.67)
|
Colorado State (-9.35)
|
12
|
CUSA East
|
-1.88
|
WKU (12.93)
|
Charlotte (-7.91)
|
13
|
MAC West
|
-2.15
|
Western Michigan (6.95)
|
Eastern Michigan (-13.64)
|
14
|
MWC West
|
-3.74
|
San Diego State (7.89)
|
Fresno State (-14.23)
|
15
|
MAC East
|
-6.80
|
Bowling Green (7.89)
|
Akron (-16.28)
|
16
|
CUSA West
|
-8.83
|
Southern Miss (2.21)
|
UTSA (-16.93)
|
There aren’t a lot of
surprises here. I don’t know what else to say.
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