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Monday, October 31, 2016

2016 College Football Season: Alabama, Washington?, Clemson??, ???: The Conference Races

Alright, so I wanted to start this last week, but I ran out of time and didn't want to produce it late and the results were a little more ambiguous than I thought they'd be. Let's go over what this is... I wanted to preview the week's impact on the conference races. So, I separated each conference into three groups: Contenders (teams within 1 game of the lead), Eliminated (teams mathematically eliminated from division/conference races), The Rest (I mean that pretty self explanatory). Each of the key games are conference games that involve one or more contending teams.

AAC
Division: East
Contenders: USF (4-1), Temple (4-1)
Eliminated: UCONN (1-5)
The Rest: UCF (2-2), ECU (1-3), Cincinnati (1-4)
Key Games: Temple at UCONN

Division: West
Contenders: Navy (4-1), Tulsa (3-1), Houston (4-2)
Eliminated: None
The Rest: Memphis (2-1), SMU (2-2), Tulane (0-4)
Key Games: East Carolina at Tulsa

ACC
Division: Atlantic
Contenders: Clemson (5-0), Louisville (5-1)
Eliminated: Boston College (1-4)
The Rest: Wake Forest (2-2), Syracuse (2-2), Florida State (2-3), NC State (1-3)
Key Games: Syracuse at #3 Clemson, #5 Louisville at Boston College

Division: Coastal
Contenders: UNC (4-1), Virginia Tech (3-1)
Eliminated: None
The Rest: Pittsburgh (2-2), Georgia Tech (2-3), Miami (FL) (1-3), Virginia (1-2), Duke (0-3)
Key Games: Georgia Tech at #18 North Carolina, #23 Virginia Tech at Duke

Big XII
Contenders: Oklahoma (5-0), Oklahoma State (4-1)
Eliminated: Iowa State (0-5), Kansas (0-5)
The Rest: Baylor (3-1), West Virginia (3-1), Kansas State (3-2)
Texas Tech (2-3), TCU (2-3), Texas (2-3)
Key Games: #12 Oklahoma at Iowa State, #22 Oklahoma State at Kansas State

Big Ten
Division: East
Contenders: Michigan (5-0), Ohio State (4-1), Penn State (4-1)
Eliminated: Michigan State (0-5), Rutgers (0-5)
The Rest: Maryland (2-3), Indiana (2-3)
Key Games: #9 Nebraska at #6 Ohio State, Maryland at #2 Michigan, Iowa at #20 Penn State

Division: West
Contenders: Nebraska (4-1), Wisconsin (3-2), Minnesota (3-2), Iowa (3-2), Northwestern (3-2)
Eliminated: None
The Rest: Purdue (1-4), Illinois (1-4)
Key Games: #9 Nebraska at #6 Ohio State, #8 Wisconsin at Northwestern
Purdue at Minnesota, Iowa at #20 Penn State

CUSA
Division: East
Contenders: WKU (4-1), Middle Tennessee (3-1), Old Dominion (3-1), FIU (3-2)
Eliminated: None
The Rest: Charlotte (2-2), Marshall (1-3), FAU (0-4)
Key Games: FIU at WKU, UTSA at Middle Tennessee, Marshall at Old Dominion

Division: West
Contenders: Louisiana Tech (4-1), Southern Miss (3-1), UTSA (3-2)
Eliminated: Rice (0-5)
The Rest: North Texas (2-2), UTEP (1-4)
Key Games: Louisiana Tech at North Texas, Charlotte at Southern Miss, UTSA at Middle Tennessee

MAC
Division: East
Contenders: Ohio (4-1), Akron (3-2), Miami (OH) (3-2)
Eliminated: None
The Rest: Kent State (2-3), Buffalo (1-3), Bowling Green (0-4)
Key Games: Buffalo at Ohio, Toledo at Akron, Central Michigan at Miami (OH)

Division: West
Contenders: Western Michigan (4-0), Toledo (3-1)
Eliminated: None
The Rest: NIU (2-2), Central Michigan (2-3), Eastern Michigan (2-3), Ball State (1-3)
Key Games: #17 Western Michigan at Ball State, Toledo at Akron

Mountain West
Division: Mountain
Contenders: Wyoming (4-0), Boise State (3-1), New Mexico (3-1)
Eliminated: Utah State (1-4)
The Rest: Colorado State (2-2), Air Force (2-3)
Key Games: Utah State at Wyoming, San Jose State at #24 Boise State, Nevada at New Mexico

Division: West
Contenders: San Diego State (4-0)
Eliminated: Fresno State (0-5)
The Rest: Hawaii (3-2), San Jose State (2-3), UNLV (2-3), Nevada (1-3)
Key Games: Hawaii at San Diego State

Pac-12
Division: North
Contenders: Washington (5-0), Washington State (5-0)
Eliminated: None
The Rest: Stanford (3-3), California (2-3), Oregon (1-4), Oregon State (1-4)
Key Games: #4 Washington at California, Arizona at #25 Washington State

Division: South
Contenders: Colorado (4-1), Utah (4-2),  USC (4-2)
Eliminated: None
The Rest: Arizona State (2-4), UCLA (1-4), Arizona (0-5)
Key Games: UCLA at #21 Colorado, Oregon at USC

SEC
Division: East
Contenders: Florida (4-1), Kentucky (4-2)
Eliminated: None
The Rest: Tennessee (2-3), Georgia (2-4), South Carolina (2-4), Vanderbilt (1-3), Missouri (0-4)
Key Games: Georgia at Kentucky, #10 Florida at Arkansas

Division: West
Contenders: Alabama (5-0), Texas A&M (4-1), Auburn (4-1)
Eliminated: Ole Miss (1-4)
The Rest: LSU (3-1), Arkansas (1-3), Mississippi State (1-3)
Key Games: #1 Alabama at #15 LSU, #7 Texas A&M at Mississippi State, Vanderbilt at #11 Auburn

Sun Belt
Contenders: Troy (4-0), Appalachian State (4-0), Arkansas State (3-0)
Eliminated: South Alabama (1-4)
The Rest: Georgia Southern (3-2), Idaho (2-2), Louisiana (2-2), Georgia State (1-3)
ULM (1-3), New Mexico State (1-3), Texas State (0-3)
Key Games: UMASS at Troy, Texas State at Appalachian State, Arkansas State at Georgia State

2016 College Football Season: Alabama, Washington?, Clemson??, ???: A Deep Dive

 Alright, the second week of my deep dive into the best/worst matchups and games of the week. So let's start with...

Best Matchups
Home
Away
Home
Rating
Away
Rating
My
Spread
Date
Time
TV
Rating
Average
LSU
Alabama
13.039
31.891
-13.387
5-Nov
19:00
CBS
22.465
California
Washington
5.972
22.85
-13.577
5-Nov
21:30
ESPN
14.411
Ohio State
Nebraska
16.434
10.048
12.095
5-Nov
19:00
ABC
13.241
Arkansas
Florida
8.835
13.205
-0.129
5-Nov
14:00
CBS
11.02
USC
Oregon
16.73
5.286
15.641
5-Nov
18:00
ESPN
11.008
The best game of the week LSU-Alabama, and if I have to say anything other than the Coach O vs Coach Saban then well you don't really want this season to be great. If LSU-Bama weren't a thing Cal-Washington and Ohio State-Nebraska could carry a week so well. As for Arkansas-Florida and USC-Oregon were much better four weeks ago. But will probably be crazy because of what college football has always been.

Worst Matchups
Home
Away
Home
Rating
Away
Rating
My
Spread
Date
Time
TV
Rating
Average
Northern Illinois
Bowling Green
-9.349
-12.295
4.555
1-Nov
19:00
ESPNU
-10.822
ULM
South Alabama
-15.252
-7.69
-6.261
5-Nov
16:00
ESPN3
-11.471
Ohio
Buffalo
-5.334
-19.316
16.684
3-Nov
17:00
CBSSN
-12.325
Colorado State
Fresno State
-6,976
-18.23
13.59
5-Nov
14:30
-
-12.603
Rice
FAU
-15.258
-11.44
-2.502
5-Nov
14:30
ESPN3
-13.349
 I'm oddly looking forward to Colorado State-Fresno State, NIU-Bowling Green, and Ohio-Buffalo, if only for Fresno State upside, the rebuilds at NIU/Bowling Green/Buffalo. But you can totally not watch ULM-South Alabama & Rice-FAU.

Closest Gap
Home
Away
Home
Rating
Away
Rating
My
Spread
Date
Time
TV
Rating
Difference
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
2.393
8.942
-2.319
5-Nov
14:30
ABC
ESPN2
2.319
Kentucky
Georgia
3.623
9.649
-1.955
5-Nov
18:30
SECN
1.955
Louisiana
Idaho
-11.054
-7.514
-1.22
5-Nov
16:00
ESPN3
1.22
Texas Tech
Texas
-0.712
3.887
-0.571
5-Nov
11:00
FS1
0.571
Arkansas
Florida
8.835
13.205
-0.129
5-Nov
14:00
CBS
0.129
None of these games are great, but all but Louisiana-Idaho is interesting to me, and Oklahoma State has to play a wizard this week.

Biggest Gap
Home
Away
Home
Rating
Away
Rating
My
Spread
Date
Time
TV
Rating
Difference
Michigan
Maryland
19.669
-1.74
27.139
5-Nov
14:30
ESPN
27.139
West Virginia
Kansas
9.1
-12.794
25.788
5-Nov
18:00
ESPN2
25.788
WKU
FIU
5.402
-17.556
25.294
5-Nov
16:30
-
25.294
Appalachian State
Texas State
4.789
-17.204
24.928
5-Nov
14:30
ESPN3
24.928
Clemson
Syracuse
19.026
0.517
23.661
5-Nov
14:30
ABC
ESPN2
23.661
 Michigan gets a break after a rivalry. That break is against their former DC in year one at Maryland. So I still think that's a break, but... maybe not? West Virginia gets to lick their wounds against Kansas, technically WKU-FIU is important but WKU is so much more together, I don't have much to say about App State-Texas State, and lastly Clemson is going to have trouble with Syracuse just because Dino is getting that offense together more and more each week.