2017 College Footbal: Oh, Wow this Week is Pretty Alright: Deep Dive

Welcome to the deep dive, the post I almost always do, unless the week is busy or the slate is boring, or if I just don’t want to do it. This week we start, as always, with the highest average rating games.

Alabama-Mississippi is here in the vein of a good number of Bama games, in that, it’s propped up by the great ranking of Alabama. That said, this game makes two appearances in this deep dive and both boil down to Bama’s real good, and they’re gonna probably beat ‘em down. Of the other four we’ll single out Washington-Oregon State as a worse version of west coast Bama-Ole Miss. The other three though are some of my most anticipated contests of the week. Let’s work from Friday forward. Washington State-USC is full of conference, and national intrigue. Wazzu had some issues at Boise State a couple weeks back, but they’re playing good football on both sides of the ball. USC crushed Stanford, but has struggled for three quarters vs WMU and had to go to extras with Texas. That’s not to say I think USC bad, but a road game at Fireball Memorial Stadium (not it’s actual name, see gif for context) will be no small feat for Darnold and the Trojans. And yes, it’s worth staying up for. Tennessee-Georgia will be another illuminating conference game. Tennessee had trouble with Florida, and the offense has looked inept, but this is going to be defensive slogfest that gets sloppy and weird and that usually favors the underdog. That, and it’s Georgia and Mark Richt (Yes, I know.) is going to lose control of a game sooner or later. UT-UGA is worth the watch for the Dawgs defense alone. Lastly is Va Tech-Clemson, and man I just want to see someone test Clemson before they get to the playoff and the Hokies offense at least has a chance to test a top 2 defense. When VT is on defense Bud Foster is going to test Kelly Bryant better than most and I think ultimately that will be the way to beat Clemson.

Home	Away	Home Rating	Away Rating	My Spread	Date	Ave
Alabama	Mississippi	29.5	3.962	31.01	30-Sep	16.731
Washington State	USC	15.857	16.904	2.216	29-Sep	16.381
Virginia Tech	Clemson	10.618	21.541	-6.782	30-Sep	16.08
Oregon State	Washington	2.816	23.581	-17.674	30-Sep	13.199
Tennessee	Georgia	10.493	13.083	2.819	30-Sep	11.788

Home	Away	Home Rating	Away Rating	My Spread	Date	Ave
UNLV	San Jose State	-12.598	-11.631	0.514	30-Sep	-12.12
Bowling Green	Akron	-13.565	-12.068	0.501	30-Sep	-12.82
Kent State	Buffalo	-9.386	-17.408	9.181	30-Sep	-13.4
Fresno State	Nevada	-14.692	-12.943	0.598	30-Sep	-13.82
FIU	Charlotte	-11.902	-17.788	8.027	30-Sep	-14.85

It’s always funny to me how these bad games, team quality-wise, are the game that end up the closest in the rankings system. This week that includes a MAC contest, and a couple of MWC contests. These bad ones may be close late, but that’s the only reason to watch. Which brings us to the other two. Both Temple and Houston are worse than last season, but you should watch Ed Oliver every chance you get because it’s just way too much fun. Lastly, is the game I might be most interested in this week outside of WSU-USC and VT-Clem. Duke heads to Miami and I’m still skeptical of Duke, but I think at this point it’s more likely that they’re good than, I’m right. Miami has looked good this season, including a second half drubbing of Toledo. I hoping this game starts to sort out an ACC hierarchy, while also producing entertaining football.

Home	Away	Home Rating	Away Rating	My Spread	Date
Duke	Miami (FL)	3.596	6.433	-0.009	29-Sep
Bowling Green	Akron	-13.565	-12.068	0.501	30-Sep
UNLV	San Jose State	-12.598	-11.631	0.514	30-Sep
Fresno State	Nevada	-14.692	-12.943	0.598	30-Sep
Temple	Houston	1.435	2.083	1.272	30-Sep

And as usual the projected biggest blowouts are Alabama, Penn State, Arkansas?, Wyoming??, WMU??? Yeah, sure, why not?

Home	Away	Home Rating	Away Rating	My Spread	Date
Arkansas	New Mexico State	5.272	-12.674	22.313	30-Sep
Western Michigan	Ball State	7.373	-13.534	23.099	30-Sep
Penn State	Indiana	18.57	-0.417	24.286	30-Sep
Wyoming	Texas State	1.559	-21.208	24.867	30-Sep
Alabama	Mississippi	29.5	3.962	31.01	30-Sep

So there’s a deeper look at what to, and not to, watch this week. It’s a good week as highlighted in the prediction post and goes much deeper than a handful of games.