2020 Fantasy Football - First Positional Rankings - Tight End

Tight end has been super shallow and volatile year to year for quite some time outside of the elite of the elite. That is starting to change. There are still a couple smaller tiers at the top but a couple good drafts and elite players still with years left leave the position in a relatively good place. That said a low-end starter at tight end would slot in as a WR4/5 making a top guy valuable, but the drop off steeper than at the other positions. And not quite on par with the depth at quarterback which is in a similar position when looking at valuations.

 

That said let’s talk about how I did my first set of rankings. I once again did projections this year and while flawed I used them as a basis for this first set of rankings. The tiers are based on the fantasy points from those projections and then I ordered them within those tiers. Some of the cutoffs are arbitrary because, fuck it, they’re still my rankings after all. I still do sequential rankings but if players are in a tier, I will almost always have no qualms taking any player in that tier over anyone else.

Key for Abbreviations – Targets (Tar.), Points Per Reception Fantasy Points (PPR FP), Positional ADP (Pos. ADP), Difference between Pos. ADP & my rank (Diff)

 

Rank	Player	Team	Tar	Rec. Yards	TD	FP PPR	Pos. ADP	Diff
Elite Tier (1-4)
TE1	Travis Kelce	KC	134	1212	7	258	1	0
TE2	George Kittle	SF	115	1107	5	219	2	0
TE3	Mark Andrews	BAL	105	996	6	205	3	0
TE4	Darren Waller	LVR	112	1342	5	247	5	-1
Very Good Tier (5-7)
TE5	Dallas Goedert	PHI	103	747	6	182	16	-11
TE6	Zach Ertz	PHI	106	769	4	174	4	2
TE7	Hunter Henry	LAC	82	735	6	168	8	-1
This would normally be that transition year that would tank the value of both Eagles TEs but with there being no veteran depth in the receiving game and Ertz still being at the end of his prime I think we see a lot of 12 personnel for the Eagles as they get both of them involved quite a bit.
Very Good, But I Got Questions Y’all (8-13)
TE8	Evan Engram	NYG	81	582	5	139	6	2
TE9	Austin Hooper	CLE	67	543	4	130	12	-3
TE10	Rob Gronkowski	TB	59	583	6	132	9	1
TE11	Noah Fant	DEN	75	641	4	134	13	-2
TE12	Tyler Higbee	LAR	91	649	3	144	7	5
TE13	Chris Herndon	NYJ	63	550	5	128	21	-8
Herndon is going to be very useful for the Jets and because I don’t believe in Perriman or Mims this year I think Herndon is the third best receiving option behind Crowder and Bell.
Lots of Intriguing Options Tier (14-23)
TE14	Ian Thomas	CAR	74	439	6	129	22	-8
TE15	Hayden Hurst	ATL	66	545	4	124	11	4
TE16	Blake Jarwin	DAL	57	497	4	117	18	-2
TE17	TJ Hockenson	DET	73	545	4	118	15	2
TE18	Dawson Knox	BUF	66	508	5	118	33	-15
TE19	Mike Gesicki	MIA	68	476	5	119	14	5
TE20	Irv Smith Jr	MIN	52	346	5	105	27	-7
TE21	Jonnu Smith	TEN	58	475	2	102	17	4
TE22	Darren Fells	HOU	56	454	5	115	41	-19
TE23	Jace Sternberger	GB	56	562	5	126	31	-8
Now we’re cooking with gas. Thomas is going to thrive replacing Olsen and he’ll benefit from Bridgewater and a focus on McCaffrey out of the backfield drawing the eyes of underneath defenders. Dawson Knox. I didn’t think mid-tier TE2 was a bold stance but he had 388 yards and 2 TDs on 50 targets, and a bump of a target a game and slightly better efficiency of targets (56% catch rate) should make 66/508/5 a very attainable projection. Darren Fells isn’t going to light the world on fire, but he’s a good red zone threat and sure handed and a slight uptick and targets makes him a good TE2 option to pair with a risky TE1 option. Sternberger will be the number 1 TE receiving threat for the Packers offense this year. That’s all.
Low End Starters and High End Backups Tier (24-35)
TE24	Jack Doyle	IND	66	434	3	110	19	5
TE25	Will Dissly	SEA	40	408	5	101	32	-7
TE26	Greg Olsen	SEA	50	363	4	91	24	2
TE27	Gerald Everett	LAR	61	418	3	97	41	-14
TE28	Kyle Rudolph	MIN	50	331	3	85	23	5
TE29	Vance McDonald	PIT	60	432	3	100	41	-12
TE30	O.J. Howard	TB	41	279	4	77	25	5
TE31	Drew Sample	CIN	58	399	5	111	41	-10
TE32	Trey Burton	IND	41	270	3	70	41	-9
TE33	Jared Cook	NO	41	326	2	68	10	23
TE34	Jordan Thomas	HOU	51	379	4	98	40	-6
TE35	Eric Ebron	PIT	40	283	2	68	20	15
Let’s start with the two I’m lower on. Eric Ebron had an anomalous 2018 and a return to earth in 2019. Both he and Vance McDonald signed 2 year contracts with the Steelers this year and Ebron got slightly more money, but I McDonald is established and maybe I should middle there target numbers a touch more but that’ll still put Ebron as a mid-tier TE3. The other is Jared Cook, who had his highest yards per reception and TDs in his year 32 season. He had 65 targets last year, but the Saints added Emmanuel Sanders, and drafted Adam Trautman in the 3rd round in this year’s draft and I just think his target share goes down and he can’t replicate his TD numbers. I will admit as I write this that he is definitely someone I need to reassess before my next set of projections and rankings. On the flip side of guys I’m more bullish on than the public we already touched on Vance McDonald. I don’t think Ebron eats too far into his workload from last year and not inside the top 40 is a bit off. Lslty, Gerlad Everett is extremely talented, stuck behind a less dynamic TE, and mostly likely in his last season with the Rams. He also had almost the exact stat line that I have him projected for him in 13 games. The Rams made Higbee the 10th highest payed TE in football this offseason so I think they’ll want to justify it but Everett has produced enough to be a viable TE3 option if you need it.
Someone From This Tier is Going to do Something Tier (36-52)
TE36	Maxx Williams	ARI	28	192	1	47	41	-5
TE37	Tyler Eifert	JAX	38	195	2	58	41	-4
TE38	Jeremy Sprinkle	WAS	38	217	2	59	41	-3
TE39	Jason Witten	LVR	35	267	1	61	29	10
TE40	Marcedes Lewis	GB	20	136	1	31	41	-1
TE41	Jesse James	DET	20	135	1	33	41	0
TE42	Nick Boyle	BAL	37	237	1	54	41	1
TE43	Jimmy Graham	CHI	25	195	2	47	28	15
TE44	Mo Alie-Cox	IND	21	193	2	42	41	3
TE45	Devin Asiasi	NE	20	197	2	48	41	4
TE46	Anthony Firkser	TEN	27	263	1	54	41	5
TE47	Matt Lacosse	NE	30	202	1	46	41	6
TE48	Kaden Smith	NYG	30	191	2	54	41	7
TE49	Charles Scarff	BAL	37	172	2	55	41	8
TE50	Josh Oliver	JAX	20	144	2	41	41	9
TE51	CJ Uzomah	CIN	36	150	2	50	41	10
TE52	Ross Dwelley	SF	25	109	2	41	41	11
Whole Lotta Upside, With No Particular Place to Go Tier (53-66)
TE53	David Njoku	CLE	17	115	1	27	38	15
TE54	Cameron Brate	TB	15	108	1	29	41	13
TE55	Foster Moreau	LVR	14	97	1	27	41	14
TE56	Isaac Nauta	DET	17	99	1	28	41	15
TE57	Cole Kmet	CHI	13	97	1	26	26	31
TE58	Tyler Kroft	BUF	12	81	1	22	41	17
TE59	Deon Yelder	KC	12	102	2	28	41	18
TE60	Adam Trautman	NO	8	70	1	22	30	30
TE61	Dalton Schultz	DAL	12	79	1	23	41	20
TE62	Robert Tonyan Jr	GB	13	110	1	27	41	21
TE63	Jeff Heuerman	DEN	15	96	1	23	41	22
TE64	Josh Hill	NO	12	75	1	22	41	23
TE65	Chris Manhertz	CAR	17	139	1	29	41	24
TE66	Jaeden Graham	ATL	9	96	1	23	41	25