2020 Fantasy Football - First Positional Rankings - Running Backs

Zero RB has been the strategy of choice at RB for the past half-decade, if not longer, but I think as we turn the corner into the 2020s we’ll find a nice middle ground in the modified Zero RB realm. Get yourself someone with elite usage in both the run game and pass game and then load up on elite talent at other positions before moving on to take a collection of middling RBs. And this year sets up pretty well to do just that with a couple true bell cows and about a dozen more with elite workloads.

That said let’s talk about how I did my first set of rankings. I once again did projections this year and while flawed I used them as a basis for this first set of rankings. The tiers are based on the fantasy points from those projections and then I ordered them within those tiers. Some of the cutoffs are arbitrary because, fuck it, they’re still my rankings after all. I still do sequential rankings but if players are in a tier, I will almost always have no qualms taking any player in that tier over anyone else.

 

Key for Abbreviations – Targets (Tar.), Points Per Reception Fantasy Points (PPR FP), Positional ADP (Pos. ADP), Difference between Pos. ADP & my rank (Diff)

 

Rank	Player	Team	Rush	Rush Yards	Rush TD	Tar.	Rec. Yards	Rec. TD	PPR FP	Pos. ADP	Diff
McCaffrey Tier (1)
RB1	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	299	1401	11	129	859	4	419	1	0
Elite Tier (2-4)
RB2	Saquon Barkley	NYG	262	1267	9	68	406	3	291	2	0
RB3	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	286	1322	10	60	400	3	296	3	0
RB4	Alvin Kamara	NO	194	965	9	95	651	4	316	5	-1
Very Good Tier (5-9)
RB5	Aaron Jones	GB	220	1105	10	65	375	3	271	13	-8
RB6	Miles Sanders	PHI	221	1008	6	78	630	3	280	11	-5
RB7	Austin Ekeler	LAC	191	919	4	101	867	5	314	12	-5
RB8	Le'Veon Bell	NYJ	277	1151	7	81	532	3	294	18	-10
RB9	Derrick Henry	TEN	293	1397	14	25	195	2	274	6	3
Alright let’s get into it and talk about something that caused me more pain in RBs than in QBs. That is players with reasonable target and rush shares and production baselines (yards per rush & yards per target) that make us pretty confident in how they’ll perform this season. Meet Austin Ekeler, I have him projected at 191 rushes which resembles Kamara’s usage for the Saints and prorated to mirror his usage without Gordon last season. Ditto for his pass receptions, and this may be where I have to make an adjustment as Rivers was a check down matching and Tyrod has not been that in the past and we don’t know when or how Herbert will play for the Chargers. For now, I’ve made him part of tier three and put him midway but I’m either going to have to find a way to fix his projection or pick Ekeler in every league. We’ll see which wins out. My predictions are high on everyone in this group other than Henry. I have Sanders as a mid-tier RB1 instead of a low end RB1, but my two big differences are Aaron Jones and Le’Veon Bell. I don’t think my Jones projection is too far off, I have him about a rush a game lower than last season, 6 touchdowns lower, and a couple targets less. Outside of some regression on his Y/R towards his first two seasons efficiency I think he’s in line for one more big year in Green Bay before he has to figure out his future. And no, I’m not worried about Dillon. What to do with talented players coming off nightmare seasons will be a theme in this piece and the WR piece. I think the offense runs more efficiently with Darnold at the helm and that sees a few more carries and targets as they run more plays this season, a bit more efficiency with improved line play and you got yourself a mid-low RB1 season out of Bell.
Very Good, but I Got Questions Y’all Tier (10-14)
RB10	Dalvin Cook	MIN	217	997	8	60	429	1	245	4	6
RB11	Joe Mixon	CIN	290	1227	8	45	293	2	248	7	4
RB12	Josh Jacobs	LVR	265	1259	9	42	258	2	249	9	3
RB13	Todd Gurley	ATL	212	904	10	60	406	3	253	15	-2
RB14	Nick Chubb	CLE	284	1443	8	30	164	2	242	8	6
Since I named this tier what I did let’s just run through the questions: Cook: Will he play (most likely yes, he’s still on his rookie deal, and Minnesota signs extensions in July every year.) Mixon: Will he play (See: First part of Cook… Also it can’t get worse than last year on the ground for Cincinnati right?) Jacobs: Why doesn’t want to use him as a three down back when his calling card at Alabama was his receiving ability. Gurley: I mean does he still have knees? Chubb: Noticeable difference after Hunt came back, which limits his passing game usage but still a solid contributor.
We Could be Bellcows or Kareem Hunt (Sing to tune of “We Could Be Heroes) Tier (15-22)
RB15	Leonard Fournette	JAC	248	980	6	55	319	2	222	16	-1
RB16	Melvin Gordon	DEN	242	971	8	48	304	2	224	17	-1
RB17	James Conner	PIT	174	757	7	68	459	2	233	21	-4
RB18	Chris Carson	SEA	238	1074	7	42	258	2	217	19	-1
RB19	Derrius Guice	WAS	190	1108	8	56	433	3	264	32	-13
RB20	David Montgomery	CHI	280	1070	8	50	264	2	229	24	-4
RB21	Raheem Mostert	SF	184	1105	9	38	269	3	235	25	-4
RB22	Kareem Hunt	CLE	94	439	4	78	614	5	223	29	-7
Hi, I’m Brock and I can’t quit Derrius Guice. He’s the starter, I don’t have him over 200 carries, under 6 targets a game and under a dozen TDs combine. That all seems reasonable and I knocked him down a tier to account for the lack of any ability to stay healthy. To note as well I have Hunt 7 spots higher as a low end RB2 I think that’s well within reason considering his blazing pace as the RB 2 in Cleveland last year.
Solid Starters Tier (23-30)
RB23	Devin Singletary	BUF	195	999	7	52	248	3	219	23	0
RB24	David Johnson	HOU	221	885	9	40	287	2	212	20	4
RB25	Kenyan Drake	ARI	176	839	8	42	234	2	198	10	15
RB26	Tarik Cohen	CHI	78	322	3	96	552	4	202	38	-12
RB27	James White	NE	67	274	2	95	613	5	202	35	-8
RB28	Kerryon Johnson	DET	184	832	7	35	219	2	186	39	-11
RB29	Jonathan Taylor	IND	216	867	10	23	148	2	190	22	7
RB30	Sony Michel	NE	253	1023	7	21	98	0	168	34	-4
Hey, it’s the first player I’m lower on than consensus. And that man is Kenyan Drake. It’s not that I dislike Drake, he’s my top RB3, but I’m not sure I buy the torrid pace he was on at last season. He was a half yard more efficient per rush in Arizona, he doubled his TD production in half the games. Now I have him at about an even amount of rushes as he had in half a season last year, but that’s already 50 more rushes than in any full season, and he’s at 44% of the teams rushes with Murray (94) and Edmonds (74) as the only other players above 35 rushes on the team. So, there might be some room for upping his rushing total, but I don’t think there is too much room to increase his total much above 200 rushes. Cohen is a full tier above where he’s being drafted but in PPR I don’t see how he’s not in the RB3 range with nearly 100 targets and a handful of rushes each week. All he needs to do is bust one of the dozen or so touches a game and he’s a major piece in a win. Lastly, Kerryon Johnson. What to do with a player who has never gotten the run of play we expected mostly due to injuries. That said, he’s averaged about 14 rushes per game up to this point and I have him at 11.5 rushes and a couple targets a game that doesn’t seem unreasonable for a player who’s replacement/top backfield partner was drafted this year. And 39 just seems far too low for the nominal top back in a Stafford led offense.
RB2s/Receiving Backs Tier (31-40)
RB31	Tevin Coleman	SF	146	635	5	34	244	2	158	45	-14
RB32	Phillip Lindsey	DEN	121	596	5	54	247	2	164	41	-9
RB33	Alexander Mattison	MIN	140	645	5	39	268	0	154	44	-11
RB34	Damien Williams	KC	147	616	6	30	187	2	152	36	-2
RB35	Duke Johnson	HOU	93	412	2	70	495	3	172	48	-13
RB36	Matt Breida	MIA	107	533	4	50	315	2	160	43	-7
RB37	Latavius Murray	NO	155	643	5	34	185	1	146	46	-9
RB38	Ronald Jones II	TB	185	729	6	27	188	1	155	33	5
RB39	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	TB	165	637	5	34	217	2	148	30	9
RB40	D'Andre Swift	DET	92	368	4	55	327	4	155	26	14
Coleman and Mostert had the same number or carries last year with Breida having just less. Breida is now gone, there are plenty of options on the table in San Francisco, but even if Coleman’s gets nearly none of those Breida rushes he’s still in line for enough touches to make him a solid, if unspectacular, RB3, and a  very good RB4. Mattison bumps up a little on the Cook holdout and the fact that even lasts season he saw 100 rushes and performed well enough to deserve a couple more a game. As for Duke Johnson, well, I will always think that he’s never gotten the shot to be a lead back he derserves but with the receiving corps being injury prone and David Johnson being washed (?), has been a top 30 option at running back for the last three seasons. 8 rushes a game and 6 targets doesn’t seen unrealistic and that’s quite a bit of opportunity to have him outside of the RB3/4 range. Lastly, I’m 14 spots lower on D’Andre Swift. I think that year one Johnson is still the lead back and that the Lions backfield is a mess for at least one more year and the team leans on Stafford even as they continue to try and force a fake balance on the team.
Mid-Range Real World RB2s and Whatever Baltimore is… Tier (41-48)
RB41	Boston Scott	PHI	110	443	4	45	353	2	157	50	-10
RB42	Mark Ingram	BAL	139	643	5	25	146	2	141	28	14
RB43	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	108	415	4	42	233	2	134	14	27
RB44	Nyheim Hines	IND	44	165	1	67	362	3	130	54	-12
RB45	JK Dobbins	BAL	105	410	5	26	155	2	117	31	12
RB46	Tony Pollard	DAL	85	451	3	30	161	2	111	49	-5
RB47	Darrell Henderson	LAR	102	385	3	31	193	2	109	47	-2
RB48	Marlon Mack	IND	129	570	6	12	63	0	109	40	6
Much like the Lions I think that the Ravens are going to be a mess of a backfield. Ingram was good enough last year, Dobbins landed in the spot of spots and should eat into his workload but with Ingram in his final season I’m not sure there’s any rush to have Dobbins usurp him, and that still leaves Hill and Gus still hanging around in what should once again be a greatly productive backfield but one that at least now is muddled. Hines is slept on with the addition of Jonathan Taylor, but a Taylor breakout doesn’t preclude Hines from taking up a role similar to Ekeler when Gordon was around for the Chargers. And I’m not even bumping him that much from 58 targets last season to 67 this season accounting for an increase of usage with Rivers and a decrease because I do think Taylor, if given the chance, will be used more in the passing game in the league than he was at Wisconsin where his high rushing usage precluded too many more touches in the passing game. Lastly, let’s talk about CEH. I really like CEH, I think he landed in a great spot for him, I think he’ll be productive out of the backfield and should be perfectly suited for the Chiefs offense for the next five seasons. This year, with a truncated off-season and Damien Williams stepping up whenever leaned on last season I think CEH has a “disappointing” rookie campaign. My projections are probably a touch low through the air, especially yards and touchdowns but I believe that he doesn’t get a lion share of the work in his inaugural campaign.
Tier of Misfit Toys (49-54)
RB49	Joshua Kelley	LAC	88	329	3	50	226	1	116	60	-11
RB50	Malcolm Brown	LAR	186	726	5	19	111	1	131	81	-31
RB51	Adrian Peterson	WAS	103	483	4	25	147	1	110	61	-10
RB52	Jordan Howard	MIA	155	673	4	12	63	0	107	37	15
RB53	Jaylen Samuels	PIT	64	225	1	68	396	2	135	69	-16
RB54	Justin Jackson	LAC	70	362	3	38	199	0	104	53	1
This is my muddled tier where situations that suck go. For the Chargers I think Jackson probably gets leaned on early in the season and Kelley banks some nice weeks late. Peterson flies up this board if Guice gets hurt again, but at this point Guice is still the future and healthy. Howard is Howard, if they lean on him he’ll be of unspectacular use, but the addition of Breida looks to pigeon hole him as a two down back and personally makes him the second best back on his new team.Lastly Pitsburgh, Samuels is actually underrated after feeling like he had all of the hype last season. Snell may be the backup in name and depth chart but for fantasy purposes Samuels impact and input in the passing game make him the fantasy backup to you’d want from amongst the Steelers options.
A Whole Bunch of Young-ins and Some Wily Vets Tier (55-73)
RB55	Cam Akers	LAR	82	304	3	16	72	1	73	27	28
RB56	Rashaad Penny	SEA	47	246	2	13	90	1	56	57	-1
RB57	Chase Edmonds	ARI	74	315	4	22	104	1	83	58	-1
RB58	Chris Thompson	JAC	20	96	1	46	290	2	91	67	-9
RB59	Ryquell Armstead	JAC	40	150	2	29	114	1	66	65	-6
RB60	Rex Burkhead	NE	58	240	2	35	240	1	96	66	-6
RB61	Zack Moss	BUF	103	397	3	21	141	1	92	42	19
RB62	Antonio Gibson	WAS	33	159	2	36	315	2	97	52	10
RB63	Darynton Evans	TEN	55	213	1	35	185	2	80	56	7
RB64	Dion Lewis	NYG	52	225	1	26	158	1	71	73	-9
RB65	AJ Dillon	GB	82	308	3	14	103	1	77	51	14
RB66	Jamaal Williams	GB	57	220	2	34	204	2	92	62	4
RB67	Gio Bernard	CIN	38	154	2	37	234	2	90	81	-14
RB68	Darwin Thompson	KC	42	145	2	30	128	2	78	76	-8
RB69	Lynn Bowden	LVR	31	129	1	34	249	2	78	74	-5
RB70	Gus Edwards	BAL	70	369	3	7	52	0	67	81	-11
RB71	Frank Gore	NYJ	66	286	1	12	69	0	55	81	-10
RB72	Benny Snell Jr	PIT	71	282	2	15	88	0	61	81	-9
RB73	Dare Ogunbowale	TB	65	100	3	42	261	1	92	81	-8
I think the Rams backfield is going to be weird. I really like Akers, I really like Henderson, and Brown is serviceable and experienced and outside of a role for Henderson in the passing game in his sophomore season I think the Rams rushing attempts will be spread out, if not each week, then week to week, or more likely between the early season and late season. A similar, if more straight forward, situation for Zack Moss in Buffalo. Moss is a nice back, I liked him more than most in the lead up to the draft but Singletary was good in his rookie season and I think Moss is meant to be a replacement for the ageless Frank Gore and not a usurper for Singletary. I don’t buy that they’re just going to force feed Moss red zone carries but I don’t discount it as a fabrication or a fool’s errand. Just that I don’t think the amount of touches given to the rookie will be as stark a contrast to Singletary’s. AJ Dillon is the easiest difference to justify. His time is 2021 and unless the Packers don’t want to maximize the value of a potential compensation pick for losing Jones and get the last cheap year out of his contract I don’t see why they would want to force Dillon into the fold overzealously in 2020. Gio Bernard might be washed, he’s definitely being used less, and I think that continues but he’s still a useful vet and neither Willliams or Anderson were useful in their rookie seasons and it’s not like there is a lot of capital invested in either of them. Also don’t draft any of the Bengals RBs who isn’t Mixon.
One of you is Going to Shawshank Out of This Tier (74-89)
RB74	Brian Hill	ATL	78	326	3	18	116	1	81	81	-7
RB75	Reggie Bonnafon	CAR	31	227	2	18	111	1	63	81	-6
RB76	Corey Clement	PHI	43	176	2	18	139	1	62	81	-5
RB77	Eno Benjamin	ARI	32	119	2	33	206	1	71	78	-1
RB78	Ito Smith	ATL	61	230	3	15	79	1	68	64	14
RB79	Bryce Love	WAS	27	108	2	15	91	1	46	81	-2
RB80	Bo Scarbrough	DET	50	212	2	15	18	1	45	81	-1
RB81	Jeffery Wilson	SF	2	9	0	25	165	1	44	81	0
RB82	Ameer Abdullah	MIN	23	91	0	25	126	1	48	81	1
RB83	Dontrell Hilliard	CLE	15	57	2	14	110	0	43	81	2
RB84	TJ Yeldon	BUF	48	193	1	18	105	0	52	81	3
RB85	Jalen Richard	LVR	12	60	0	20	136	1	41	71	14
RB86	DeeJay Dallas	SEA	15	58	1	10	77	1	31	80	6
RB87	Ty Johnson	DET	31	133	1	9	31	0	29	81	6
RB88	Anthony McFarland Jr	PIT	25	95	1	6	35	0	25	55	33
RB89	Michael Boone	MIN	47	248	2	5	13	0	44	81	8
Love me some Ito Smith but Gurley’s the lead back until he falls apart and then the Falcons backfield becomes a muddled mess of contrasting styles and players that could gel into a smorgasbord of interesting pieces or an RB nightmare. As for Jalen Richard, well the Raiders added Devonate Booker in free agency and Lynn Bowden in the draft and it just appears that along with not wanting to give Jacobs more work they also are looking for a replacement for Richard and you can’t know what you have without putting them on the field. And that’s where I see Richard’s work going. Anthony McFarland Jr is a 4th round draft pick out of Maryland where he was very efficient bur rarely the feature back. He’s an intriguing prospect with work to do and fourth on the depth chart. McFarland is definitely one to watch, but unless the Steelers are going to cycle through a new RB every season, this seems like added insurance for the future if Conner leaves than an immediate impact signing. I’m going to add in the one player from the tier below I want to talk about. Damien Harris intrigues me because he’s a 2nd round pick from a year ago who didn’t show much but plays on a team where patience and growth are valued. He’s sitting way down the depth chart in preseason but you’d think he’d get some run at some point.
Hey, These Guys Were Projected Over a Point Per Game Tier (90-105)
RB90	JaMycal Hasty	SF	58	218	2	10	41	0	48	81	9
RB91	Justice Hill	BAL	40	156	2	5	24	0	33	72	19
RB92	Khari Blasingame	TEN	22	79	1	5	33	0	24	81	11
RB93	Trayveon Williams	CIN	21	81	1	6	33	0	23	81	12
RB94	Damien Harris	NE	11	45	1	10	51	0	22	63	31
RB95	Rodney Anderson	CIN	13	50	1	6	65	0	22	81	14
RB96	Myles Gaskin	MIA	26	95	1	6	24	0	19	81	15
RB97	Elijah McGuire	KC	29	97	1	6	39	0	22	81	16
RB98	Kalen Ballage	MIA	32	95	1	8	29	0	25	81	17
RB99	Ralph Webb	PIT	18	66	1	9	50	0	24	81	18
RB100	Brandon Bolden	NE	32	143	1	10	56	0	38	81	19
RB101	Tony Brooks-James	MIN	7	28	0	18	117	1	35	81	20
RB102	Trenton Cannon	NYJ	32	95	1	15	86	0	33	81	21
RB103	Josh Hokit	SF	23	83	1	8	35	0	26	81	22
RB104	Jordan Scarlett	CAR	13	48	0	9	43	0	18	81	23
RB105	Ryan Nall	CHI	22	86	1	8	52	0	25	81	24