2022 Fantasy Football - 2nd Ranks - Running Backs

 We’re still in an odd place with running backs, there are a group of bell cows, then a mirky group of two down backs, an interesting group of 3^rd down backs and a muddled mess of lottery tickets which no one can quite say for certain which will hit.

 

P.S. – I wrote this up over the weekend so things like Drake still being around and other cuts won’t be reflected. And an NR in Ranks Diff means it wasn’t in the last RB write-up.

 

The Elite Tier (1-2)
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
RB1	Jonathan Taylor	IND	318	1682	15	57	405	2	358	1	0	0
RB2	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	269	1237	10	123	876	5	402	2	0	0

Nothing to see here. Carry on and may fantasy fortunes be ever in your favor.

 

The Very Good Tier (3-9)
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
RB3	Najee Harris	PIT	319	1247	12	101	588	4	359	5	-2	-1
RB4	Derrick Henry	TEN	376	1826	17	41	286	1	353	4	0	-4
RB5	Alvin Kamara	NO	246	1142	13	71	690	3	333	10	-5	-20
RB6	Saquon Barkley	NYG	245	1091	8	78	481	4	286	9	-3	-3
RB7	Dalvin Cook	MIN	242	1147	9	52	370	1	252	6	1	4
RB8	Aaron Jones	GB	198	1005	9	80	549	5	298	8	0	-6
RB9	Austin Ekeler	LAC	216	1001	7	96	724	6	330	3	6	2

There’s nothing wrong with this tier compared to the top tier just the faintest whisper of a difference. We have two types of differences to study in running backs. Me vs ADP, and me vs me, the later is much more fraught with insecurities and second guesses, the former just with the fear of being wrong. My biggest change, especially this high up is my re-rank of Kamara. It looks more and more clear that he won’t see punishment for his altercation during the Pro Bowl, at least not this season. I’m also now 5 spots higher than ADP which seems to be a hedge between suspension and not. I’m also half a round lower on Ekeler, he was a high end RB1 but the Chargers keep trying to find someone to take the two down work and that worries me, not enough to drop him out of RB1 range or even the top 10, but just enough to worry me that even the Chargers are worried about his workload. I moved Jones back up a half tier because without Adams last year he saw a large increase in his passing game use. An uptick like that would negate any loss in rushing production to AJ Dillon.

 

The Very Good with Questions Tier (10-16)
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
RB10	J.K. Dobbins	BAL	230	1347	12	58	362	2	298	21	-11	-1
RB11	Javonte Williams	DEN	234	1042	8	61	417	3	264	13	-2	-5
RB12	Joe Mixon	CIN	326	1348	10	50	353	2	281	7	5	7
RB13	Nick Chubb	CLE	277	1470	11	20	148	1	246	12	1	7
RB14	D'Andre Swift	DET	188	808	10	91	610	3	291	11	3	2
RB15	Breece Hall	NYJ	216	859	12	55	342	4	254	18	-3	0
RB16	Leonard Fournette	TB	198	801	7	88	571	1	252	14	2	6

Mixon and Chubb got moved down 7 spots due to limited receiving upside but still reside at the fringe of RB1 territory, it might have slightly over-adjusted, especially on Mixon, but I think this is definitely the right tier. Fournette dropped a half tier too and it’s mostly because he doesn’t quite have the same rushing floor and he tops out at top 5 upside (nothing to scoff at but a slight limitation). Lastly, I’m still high on Dobbins who looks on pace to play week 1 and won’t have Edwards stealing carries to start the season.

 

A Tier of Conundrums (17-30)
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
RB17	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	222	993	8	58	396	2	240	15	2	-3
RB18	Elijah Mitchell	SF	237	1103	6	24	183	1	193	23	-5	5
RB19	Travis Etienne	JAX	183	754	10	63	423	5	252	17	2	-17
RB20	Kenneth Walker III	SEA	238	920	14	20	119	1	208	36	-15	2
RB21	David Montgomery	CHI	211	831	6	45	292	1	190	20	1	-5
RB22	Cam Akers	LAR	215	899	5	31	238	2	181	19	3	-5
RB23	Chase Edmonds	MIA	189	879	5	54	332	2	204	31	-8	-6
RB24	Miles Sanders	PHI	168	851	4	58	377	2	199	28	-4	3
RB25	Antonio Gibson	WAS	217	931	9	67	415	2	256	24	1	8
RB26	James Conner	ARI	197	779	10	37	264	1	203	16	10	2
RB27	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	178	785	6	61	415	2	214	26	1	5
RB28	Josh Jacobs	LVR	211	890	8	53	336	1	219	22	6	9
RB29	Damien Harris	NE	199	948	8	24	164	1	185	29	0	-1
RB30	Devin Singletary	BUF	190	895	6	33	194	1	174	32	-2	-5

We’ll start with my ADP disagreements first. I will continue to be higher on Walker and hernia (non-sports variety) surgery that will slow the rest of his pre-season but shouldn’t be too much of a hamper on his season. Edmonds is far too undervalued in fantasy, he’s going to be the #1 in Miami, he’ll split like during his time in Arizona but he’s been productive in both phases throughout his career. Speaking of Arizona I believe his former backfield mate is in for a fair amount of TD regression this season and that leaves me lower on him than consensus. As far as me vs me, I admitted fault with the Etienne rank in my last write up because I forgot about the Robinson injury. I lowered Gibson and Jones because I think they have limited receiving game upside and questionable roles in the run game. Jacobs last year was far to reliant on a TD to be useful and Gibson was good but the Commanders seem intent on not trusting him as a bell cow or in the pass game which is odd considering his usage as a WR in college.

 

The Last of the Starters and Best of the Handcuffs Tier (31-45)
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
RB31	Tony Pollard	DAL	157	795	4	58	399	2	200	27	4	-1
RB32	AJ Dillon	GB	194	869	7	32	254	2	194	25	7	-1
RB33	Cordarrelle Patterson	ATL	132	672	6	80	568	3	231	34	-1	-1
RB34	Dameon Pierce	HOU	183	724	9	31	198	2	180	39	-5	-14
RB35	Kareem Hunt	CLE	119	547	4	51	396	4	183	30	5	12
RB36	Darrell Henderson	LAR	160	718	4	38	238	2	159	41	-5	-7
RB37	Melvin Gordon	DEN	148	615	5	36	246	1	153	37	0	0
RB38	Jamaal Williams	DET	130	514	8	30	205	1	153	49	-11	0
RB39	James Cook	BUF	89	357	3	81	575	3	186	38	1	1
RB40	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	152	695	7	29	208	1	161	35	5	-6
RB41	Alexander Mattison	MIN	132	555	2	40	285	1	139	43	-2	1
RB42	Khalil Herbert	CHI	137	575	4	28	182	0	124	54	-12	1
RB43	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	80	284	3	22	130	1	78	63	-20	1
RB44	Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	90	386	6	29	178	1	115	46	-2	1
RB45	Rashaad Penny	SEA	102	572	4	14	97	1	108	33	12	-9

Pierce jumped up 14 spots as it looks more and more likely that he’s the best back in Houston and the one most likely to take the lead role. Hunt dropped because he’s fighting with management, and because both Watson and Brissett generally target their RBs a bit less. My ADP disagreement on Jamaal Williams boils down to Swift is oft injured, and Williams is good for 120+ rushes and 30+ targets a year as a handcuff. Herbert and Hubbard are this much higher than consensus because they showed sincere upside while filling in as starters last season, Herbert will have a larger role in the Bears offense versus Hubbard behind McCaffrey but ultimately this tier is about handcuffs/backups from top to bottom. Penny finished off last year strong and Seattle still added a 2^nd round running back to the roster, and although I moved him up my rankings from 54 to 45, I’m still considerably lower on him than concensus.

 

The Handcuff, Rookies, Upside, and More Questions Tier (46-60)
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
RB46	Michael Carter	NYJ	89	391	2	70	420	3	159	44	2	-10
RB47	J.D. McKissic	WAS	48	214	1	64	255	2	111	50	-3	-21
RB48	Nyheim Hines	IND	69	284	2	65	446	2	147	42	6	17
RB49	Zamir White	LVR	101	382	7	53	323	1	153	57	-8	-41
RB50	Tyler Allgeier	ATL	112	475	6	45	305	1	151	48	2	0
RB51	Raheem Mostert	MIA	113	639	4	27	192	1	136	52	-1	-15
RB52	Eno Benjamin	ARI	111	391	2	49	338	2	139	67	-15	-11
RB53	Brian Robinson Jr	WAS	133	495	5	15	90	1	102	55	-2	4
RB54	Rachaad White	TB	99	393	9	14	107	1	116	47	7	3
RB55	Mark Ingram	NO	80	361	3	37	340	1	124	66	-11	-2
RB56	Isiah Pacheco	KC	115	417	4	17	98	1	91	58	-2	NR
RB57	Snoop Conner	JAX	85	319	4	22	117	1	89	91	-34	-47
RB58	Isaiah Spiller	LAC	80	304	4	22	140	1	88	45	13	-3
RB59	Jeff Wilson	SF	83	352	4	12	82	1	78	70	-11	0
RB60	Gus Edwards	BAL	81	422	5	9	71	0	86	60	0	8

I was too low on McKissic in my first ranks, I still don’t quite know what that Washington backfield is going to be but I think it’s becoming clearer that Gibson is the back most likely to be most hurt by the changes. I dropped Hines 17 picks because he just has such limited upside as a pure 3^rd down back. He’s not a bad player or pick but he’s much more RB4 than RB3. Right behind him Zamir White makes a big jump here as he continues to settle into the backup role in Vegas. Abdullah is going to see receiving down work, and Jacobs is still the lead back but all the buzz from camp points towards White having a role and being the primary backup. Mostert is real good when he's on the field, he just has to stay on the field. Two rookies took big jumps up my rankings, Pacheco & Conner. Pacheco is showing out in Kansas City and although I’m not ready to anoint him as ready to take over for CEH like some are starting to want or hint at, I think he’s shown more than enough to have a greater role this season than expected. Conner moves up because much like Etienne I forgot Robinson was coming off an achilles injury and although Robinson looks like he will be ready for week 1 I don’t trust him to be impactful at least early in the season after said achilles injury. On the ADP side, I’m still high on Benjamin having an increased and decided receiving role in Arizona, and we already touched on Conner having opportunities in Jacksonville.

 

The Lottery Tickets (61-73)
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
RB61	Travis Homer	SEA	57	335	2	40	282	1	113	118	-57	NR
RB62	Marlon Mack	HOU	92	402	3	31	187	1	105	53	9	15
RB63	Rex Burkhead	HOU	92	363	3	34	225	1	113	76	-13	-1
RB64	Ty Montgomery	NE	42	193	1	53	344	1	103	93	-29	NR
RB65	James Robinson	JAX	80	365	3	16	90	1	81	40	25	37
RB66	Keaontay Ingram	ARI	25	94	2	15	99	1	48	85	-19	-1
RB67	Jerome Ford	CLE	34	135	2	10	72	0	42	100	-33	-3
RB68	Damien Williams	ATL	77	321	3	18	121	1	83	82	-14	10
RB69	Trey Sermon	SF	36	145	1	15	112	0	42	69	0	-67
RB70	Matt Breida	NYG	67	327	2	37	250	2	111	77	-7	-14
RB71	Hassan Haskins	TEN	73	272	5	8	49	0	67	74	-3	2
RB72	Pierre Strong Jr	NE	16	65	1	21	128	1	45	83	-11	12
RB73	Brandon Bolden	LVR	75	344	2	24	161	1	86	101	-28	35

Homer isn’t going to blow the socks off anybody but he’s going to be involved in the passing game in Seattle, because despite his athleticism Penny isn’t the receiving back many like to portray him as. It looks increasingly clear, at least early, that Ty Montgomery has a fair chance of taking over the James White receiving role in New England, I still probably favor Strong impact-wise I think it’s worth reading the tea leaves. I’m still high on Ford and that has to do with how much I liked him coming out of Cincinnati and a lack of enthusiasm for D’Ernest Johnson as the Browns #3. We’ll call it a gut shot but it might just be stubbornness. I’ve caught up to ADP on Trey Sermon and it’s all thanks to Mitchell having soft tissue issues early in camp and continued positivity from Shanahan about him.

 

One’s to Watch Tier (74-96)
Rank	Player	Tm	Rush	Rush Yds	Rush TDs	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TD	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
RB74	Zack Moss	BUF	45	178	2	10	63	0	44	84	-10	-52
RB75	Ke'Shawn Vaughn	TB	40	185	1	7	38	0	36	79	-4	-14
RB76	Kenyan Drake	LVR	16	73	1	18	113	0	38	61	15	23
RB77	Bryant Koback	MIN	7	26	0	31	217	3	68	118	-41	NR
RB78	Jerick McKinnon	KC	38	153	1	27	180	2	70	65	13	4
RB79	Dontrell Hilliard	TEN	22	123	1	5	35	0	27	75	4	-50
RB80	Benny Snell Jr	PIT	36	127	2	3	19	0	29	88	-8	20
RB81	D'Onta Foreman	CAR	27	113	2	12	93	1	49	62	19	-6
RB82	Kyle Juszczyk	SF	2	8	0	45	347	2	81	98	-16	20
RB83	Chris Evans	CIN	29	111	1	25	177	1	60	71	12	28
RB84	Samaje Perine	CIN	53	208	3	19	137	1	73	72	12	8
RB85	Boston Scott	PHI	77	336	3	6	39	0	61	80	5	13
RB86	Joshua Kelley	LAC	45	144	1	16	110	1	51	92	-6	14
RB87	Sony Michel	MIA	61	259	2	11	65	0	53	64	23	22
RB88	Rico Dowdle	DAL	36	135	1	6	41	0	32	118	-30	3
RB89	Gary Brightwell	NYG	22	84	1	12	67	1	33	118	-29	NR
RB90	Craig Reynolds	DET	54	226	1	11	72	0	45	104	-14	NR
RB91	Darrel Williams	ARI	44	171	1	12	90	0	45	56	35	9
RB92	Giovani Bernard	TB	12	48	0	25	167	1	46	89	3	NR
RB93	Mike Davis	BAL	41	150	2	9	54	0	40	73	20	16
RB94	Dare Ogunbowale	HOU	34	120	1	6	37	0	27	115	-21	NR
RB95	Tyler Badie	BAL	24	92	1	3	19	0	21	86	9	15
RB96	Kyren Williams	LAR	34	127	1	16	102	1	45	87	9	13

Of the guys I moved a bunch from last time, Moss is an overrated demise all-star, Koback is an interesting lottery ticket that shown flashes for Minnesota but I’m probably too high, Hilliard is the Titans third option and brings at least a slightly varied skill set compared to Haskins, Evans got bumbed a bit too high as the Bengals receiving option, Brightwell and Reynolds are on shallow backfield rosters, and Bernard and Ogunbowale are extreme longshot receiving options. Sorry for the run-on.