2022 Fantasy Football - 2nd Ranks - Wide Receiver

First things first, I messed up in my first run of rankings because I referenced the wrong set fantasy points calculations for my projections. So, slot receivers with a lot of targets but relatively low Y/T were affected most. Receiver continues to be incredibly deep top end, middle, and late. Which makes draft strategy and weighing option considerably tougher.

 

The Elite Tier (1-3)
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
WR1	Justin Jefferson	MIN	153	1381	9	294	2	1	-2
WR2	Stefon Diggs	BUF	169	1319	10	308	4	-2	1
WR3	Cooper Kupp	LAR	179	1434	10	333	1	2	1

Nothing too outlandish but just rearranged them, from the first set of ranks. Let’s make a case for each real quick:

Jefferson – Two seasons, both with at least 1400 yards, both with at least 7 TDs, enough said.

Diggs – Top receiver on one of the most pass happy offenses in the league, four straight 1000 yard seasons, and 4 straight 6+ TD seasons.

Kupp – 191 targets, 145 catches, 1947 yards, 16 TDs.

 

The Very Good Tier (4-8)
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
WR4	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN	129	1246	11	272	3	1	0
WR5	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	130	1069	8	241	6	-1	0
WR6	Davante Adams	LVR	127	960	9	235	5	1	0
WR7	Tyreek Hill	MIA	123	956	8	227	9	-2	0
WR8	Mike Evans	TB	151	1226	11	273	8	0	0

Almost literally nothing to see here.

 

The Very Good with Questions Tier (9-18)
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
WR9	A.J. Brown	PHI	130	1131	9	249	12	-3	0
WR10	DK Metcalf	SEA	129	1017	10	240	22	-12	0
WR11	Chris Godwin	TB	130	1110	8	250	24	-13	-3
WR12	Keenan Allen	LAC	147	1131	7	253	10	2	1
WR13	DJ Moore	CAR	170	1357	6	274	14	-1	1
WR14	Deebo Samuel	SF	134	1280	5	252	7	7	1
WR15	Terry McLaurin	WAS	131	1010	6	218	17	-2	0
WR16	Courtland Sutton	DEN	118	967	10	223	18	-2	0
WR17	Michael Pittman Jr	IND	128	1011	7	229	13	4	0
WR18	Tee Higgins	CIN	114	975	8	219	11	7	0

Again not much of a change for me, but ADP has a problem with me. Metcalf and Godwin are both going a full tier (12 WRs in ADP) lower than I have them. Metcalf is a bit more TD dependent without Wilson but he still ended up WR 14 last season and he possesses plenty enough talent and potential variance to end up a solid WR1. Godwin is an injury risk, but he’s been back at practice since the beginning of the month and the Bucs are gonna throw as much as any team in the league. I’ll easily take the risk on Godwin around the end of the WR1s. Deebo was a good receiver outside of his running ability last season but I expect some regression due to Lance focusing more on pushing the ball downfield than Garoppolo did last season. He’s still a very good player and excellent fantasy option, I’m just a little more wary than the market. Lastly, I have Higgins 7 spots lower than ADP and it comes down to my belief that the Bengals will be less efficient then the end of the year and another Burrow injury might cause a regression towards balance in the offense. I think he’s a very good WR2 instead of a fringe WR1.

 

The Solid Receivers Tier (19-30)
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
WR19	Diontae Johnson	PIT	147	999	6	228	19	0	0
WR20	Brandin Cooks	HOU	139	1101	6	237	21	-1	0
WR21	Amari Cooper	CLE	114	970	7	211	32	-11	0
WR22	Michael Thomas	NO	108	1169	7	243	25	-3	-37
WR23	Mike Williams	LAC	128	1070	8	232	15	8	1
WR24	Rashod Bateman	BAL	124	938	7	220	33	-9	-4
WR25	Marquise Brown	ARI	108	795	6	183	23	2	-1
WR26	Darnell Mooney	CHI	141	988	7	225	26	0	-3
WR27	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	119	1029	7	220	40	-13	-4
WR28	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	109	779	6	195	16	12	-10
WR29	Adam Thielen	MIN	116	968	8	223	30	-1	-1
WR30	JuJu Smith-Schuster	KC	112	909	6	204	29	1	-3

Now we’re getting somewhere. Thomas is the obvious one and it’s because he healthy (relatively), on the field, and garnering rave reviews. He’s dealing with a hamstring tweak which is worrying but low end WR2 price for a player with top 10 or 5 upside with risks, but not nearly the sizable risk he was last year, is worth it. Waddle is my other big mover in this tier and it all comes down to the way they’re using Gesicki. In-line and completely out of the best way to utilize a player of his talents. With regards to ADP, I’m still well behind on Waddle and although that hurts me I’m definitely comfortable with where I have him. Cooper is the WR1 on an NFL offense, and he’s put up 5 1000-yard seasons, and averaged 6 TDs a season in his 7-year career. My Aiyuk ranking is tied to my “drop” of Deebo, they are the two major receiving pieces of the 49ers pie and their rankings being push-pull just makes logical sense on a team that leans more towards balance than a robust passing game.

 

The Rookies & High-End WR2s Tier (31-48)
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
WR31	Chris Olave	NO	93	1047	8	218	45	-14	-1
WR32	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	109	884	8	213	51	-19	5
WR33	Tyler Lockett	SEA	115	928	6	211	43	-10	10
WR34	Allen Robinson	LAR	94	722	8	175	20	14	-12
WR35	Gabriel Davis	BUF	114	924	7	198	27	8	0
WR36	Drake London	ATL	104	847	6	196	39	-3	12
WR37	Christian Kirk	JAX	120	848	6	200	41	-4	1
WR38	Jerry Jeudy	DEN	113	883	7	190	31	7	1
WR39	George Pickens	PIT	117	965	6	215	58	-19	-23
WR40	Tyler Boyd	CIN	98	776	4	168	50	-10	-4
WR41	Allen Lazard	GB	97	820	7	191	38	3	0
WR42	Hunter Renfrow	LVR	106	820	6	197	34	8	-5
WR43	Robert Woods	TEN	122	928	5	199	42	1	-6
WR44	Kadarius Toney	NYG	100	724	4	165	44	0	-40
WR45	DeVonta Smith	PHI	107	858	6	188	37	8	20
WR46	Elijah Moore	NYJ	91	597	6	147	35	11	-2
WR47	Treylon Burks	TEN	95	854	8	198	46	1	-3
WR48	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	110	824	6	201	28	20	-6

ADP Differences:

Olave (14 Higher) & Wilson (19 Higher): Both Ohio State rookies should start for their teams. Obviously, I think Olave has a bigger hurdle to the WR1 job in New Orleans as I have Thomas at WR 22 instead of Wilson’s biggest competition, Elijah Moore, at WR 46. Both should be major contributors as rookies with Wilson being a more consistent part of his offense and Olave having a higher upside.

Robinson (14 Lower): I started off with Robinson in the mid-40s but moved him up a full 12 spots and find myself 14 spots above ADP, because he looks rejuvenated in LA and should be the leading outside receiver on a very good offense. I’m a sucker for Robinson and although last year worries me greatly, he’s extremely talented and playing with by far the best QB of his career.

Pickens (19 Higher): Count me in on the hype of the underwhelming but immensely talented Georgia Bulldog. I’m 19 spots higher on Pickens than ADP right now but I expect that gap to diminish as we move towards the season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (20 Lower): St. Brown obviously had a fantastic rookie season but the Lions were decimated by injuries a healthy Hockenson, Swift, and the addition of Chark means that there will be much more competition for targets, and that’s not to mention the addition of Jameson Williams around week 6. I moved him up 6 spots, and don’t think he’ll be terrible but I’m definitely not onboard with his high end WR3 ADP.

 

My Difference:

Robinson (12 Higher) & Pickens (23 Higher): See: Robinson & Pickens above

London (12 Lower): I still like London and think he could have a large role in this offense but ultimately the only member of this offense I trust what-so-ever is Pitts. London is going where he should be, this is me just adjusting him back towards consensus.

Toney (40 Higher): When I ranked these guys last Toney was seemingly on the outs with management and although I’m still incredibly worried about Toney’s inability to stay healthy, he deserves to be ranked as a WR4 if only because of his production in his limited on-field time.

Smith (20 Lower) I like Smith, and have I said receivers are ridiculously deep, he’s going to be a bit more hit or miss this year with Brown taking up more of possession receiver role, which for me means I think we see a more explosive but hit or miss season from Smith. Hopefully much more DeSean Jackson or Brandin Cooks, then any number of deep threat busts over the years.

 

The Risky Upside Tier (49-65)
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
WR49	Jakobi Meyers	NE	133	1007	5	221	57	-8	6
WR50	DeAndre Hopkins	ARI	77	601	6	144	36	14	-2
WR51	Isaiah McKenzie	BUF	91	654	4	156	76	-25	-112
WR52	Jameson Williams	DET	70	621	4	135	68	-16	7
WR53	Christian Watson	GB	80	704	6	162	65	-12	13
WR54	Jalen Tolbert	DAL	88	758	5	167	64	-10	-21
WR55	Chase Claypool	PIT	101	745	6	167	47	8	13
WR56	Alec Pierce	IND	99	880	5	188	74	-18	3
WR57	Mecole Hardman	KC	95	840	5	178	60	-3	6
WR58	Wan'Dale Robinson	NYG	78	558	4	134	75	-17	-48
WR59	Van Jefferson	LAR	79	609	4	130	80	-21	3
WR60	Randall Cobb	GB	71	575	3	125	90	-30	-30
WR61	Kenny Golladay	NYG	84	666	5	144	56	5	27
WR62	Skyy Moore	KC	71	623	4	138	48	14	-12
WR63	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	KC	74	626	5	130	52	11	-7
WR64	Michael Gallup	DAL	81	649	3	131	53	11	25
WR65	DJ Chark	DET	95	711	5	156	62	3	-11

McKenzie has clearly succeeded Beasley as the WR3 in Buffalo instead of Crowder requiring a triple digit jump in the rankings. Other large differences for me, are Wan’Dale (48 up) and his breakout in Giants camp, Cobb (30 up) and it becoming clear that Amari Rodgers hasn’t overtaken him in the slot, Golladay (27 down) and the fact that he seems like a player that feels useful but never quite outplays or performs younger players we think are ultimately less talented, and Gallup (25 down) who absolutely won’t be ready for week 1.

As far as my continuing fight against ADP… ADP hasn’t caught up to McKenzie (25 above) being WR3 on fantasy’s favorite offense, I think Williams (16 above) is going to be impactful the moment he hits the field for Detroit and therefore is a worthy stash as a WR5, Pierce (18 above) continues to make plays in Colts camp and provides a big athletic option for Matt Ryan, Robinson (17 above) taking over the slot role in New York, Jefferson (21 above) still the third option for a good LA offense, Cobb (30 above) the slot option and friend of the quarterback, and lastly I note Moore (14 below). I moved Moore up 12 spots from my last ranks but still lag behind ADP, I think he’ll be a part of the KC offense this year but I don’t really trust any receiving options in KC outside of Kelce and, oddly enough, JuJu.

 

The Someone’s Gonna Surprise Tier (66-83)
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
WR66	Marvin Jones	JAX	114	822	6	187	72	-6	-7
WR67	Byron Pringle	CHI	99	818	4	177	101	-34	1
WR68	Romeo Doubs	GB	71	588	4	132	67	1	-105
WR69	Jahan Dotson	WAS	64	504	3	113	63	6	12
WR70	Corey Davis	NYJ	70	508	4	117	77	-7	15
WR71	Nico Collins	HOU	93	657	3	135	70	1	3
WR72	Donovan Peoples-Jones	CLE	81	808	4	155	82	-10	1
WR73	Rondale Moore	ARI	83	586	3	147	61	12	13
WR74	Devin Duvernay	BAL	78	567	3	131	89	-15	10
WR75	Jarvis Landry	NO	71	705	4	141	59	16	-8
WR76	Quez Watkins	PHI	81	699	3	142	91	-15	-3
WR77	Bryan Edwards	ATL	75	663	4	136	96	-19	5
WR78	Josh Palmer	LAC	48	350	4	91	66	12	-18
WR79	Laviska Shenault Jr	JAX	63	406	3	101	93	-14	18
WR80	KJ Osborn	MIN	55	433	5	105	71	9	-64
WR81	Robbie Anderson	CAR	77	570	3	119	69	12	16
WR82	Parris Campbell	IND	45	324	3	80	73	9	-38
WR83	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	65	493	4	114	94	-11	5

Doubs will at worst be the Packers WR5 heading into the season, if that’s not worthy of a 105-spot jump for the 4^th round rookie then I don’t know what is. I also gave Osborn and Campbell 64 and 38 spot jumps respectively as both look to have holds on top 3 roles on their respective offenses. This was a relatively quiet tier overall, with no one else over 18 spots difference (which is a good bit but nothing spectacular), even on ADP the only player I want to note is Pringle (34 higher) who is still a top three option on an admittedly bad offense. And I’m not advocating splurging on him we’re talking WR 69 (Nice) he’s a guy to draft late and cut early when it’s clear no non-Mooney receiver on Chicago is worth anything.

 

The Deep Lottery Tickets Tier (84-111)
Rank	Player	Tm	Tar	Rec Yds	Rec TDs	FP	Pos ADP	Diff	Ranks Diff
WR84	Cedrick Wilson	MIA	54	415	4	103	98	-14	4
WR85	Curtis Samuel	WAS	55	391	3	89	87	-2	-50
WR86	DeVante Parker	NE	68	522	3	108	54	32	-27
WR87	David Bell	CLE	51	421	3	96	88	-1	1
WR88	Jalen Nailor	MIN	28	258	2	60	139	-51	-42
WR89	Danny Gray	SF	33	302	3	74	104	-15	-36
WR90	Rashard Higgins	CAR	49	388	3	87	115	-25	-17
WR91	Russell Gage	TB	74	540	4	128	49	42	22
WR92	Jalen Guyton	LAC	48	397	3	83	103	-11	29
WR93	AJ Green	ARI	71	556	2	108	79	14	12
WR94	Tre'Quan Smith	NO	46	495	4	104	132	-38	-6
WR95	KJ Hamler	DEN	69	506	3	106	78	17	-42
WR96	Kendrick Bourne	NE	68	550	4	123	81	15	-3
WR97	Kyle Philips	TEN	60	435	4	110	108	-11	-11
WR98	Calvin Austin III	PIT	50	435	3	97	124	-26	40
WR99	Velus Jones Jr	CHI	28	321	2	64	95	4	-12
WR100	Freddie Swain	SEA	57	434	6	113	127	-27	6
WR101	Chris Moore	HOU	68	466	3	108	134	-33	-26
WR102	Terrace Marshall	CAR	59	381	1	77	97	5	-10
WR103	Ben Skowronek	LAR	47	337	2	72	139	-36	-19
WR104	Tyler Johnson	TB	53	390	3	92	147	-43	16
WR105	Amari Rodgers	GB	21	163	1	37	106	-1	-48
WR106	James Washington	DAL	52	393	3	82	116	-10	14
WR107	Khalil Shakir	BUF	39	313	2	73	110	-3	-58
WR108	Tylan Wallace	BAL	41	373	3	86	126	-18	7
WR109	James Proche	BAL	49	416	2	90	105	4	22
WR110	Sammy Watkins	GB	27	216	1	43	84	26	-13
WR111	Erik Ezukanma	MIA	33	274	2	64	139	-28	18

This tier is pure lottery tickets, there are a lot of different types, styles, and ages (even among the rookies, Hi Velus). There’s going to be impact from this range, maybe because of injury, maybe because of breakouts but there’s always one, you just never know which one.