Alright first piece
for the NFL Draft week, is as always, Quarterback. We’ll follow with skill
positions (RB/WR/TE) on Sunday, offensive line (OT/G/C) Monday, Front 7
(Int/Edge/OBLB) on Tuesday, and DBs (CB/S) on Wednesday. Thursday will be big
board and a mock draft leading into the draft that evening. Back to the job at
hand, a much-anticipated QB class. This year’s class is deep at the top with
prospects with a bit of a drop off but a handful of very intriguing development
guys.
Player (Class
(as listed by the college)) | Team (Conference) | Height, Weight | Attempts
(Comp %) - Adjusted Yards per Attempt | Prod | Role (Gr)
Roles & Grades
– Starter (S) 8.0-7.1, Expected Starter (ES) 7.0-6.1, Potential
Starter (PS) 6.0-4.1, Backup (B) 4-3.1, and Undrafted Free Agent
(UDFA) 3.0-2.1
Caleb Williams
(Jr) | USC (P12) | 6’ 1 1/8”, 214 lbs. | 388 (68.56%) – 10.28 | 5.831 |
S (7.3)
Williams played too
much hero ball in 2023, and it showed in the bit of statistical regression. The
idea that he was foolish to think he needed to do too much on this USC team is hilarious
to me. He showed in 2022 that he could play in tempo and in system, in 2023 he continuously
showed that he could play well out of system and when things broke down. He’ll
need to reign it in a bit towards 2022 but he will have a great supporting
skill group heading into his rookie year.
Drake Maye (So) |
North Carolina (ACC) | 6’ 4 3/8”, 223 lbs. | 425 (63.29%) – 8.63 | 4.318 |
ES (6.8)
Jayden Daniels
(Sr) | LSU (SEC) | 6’ 3 1/4", 210 lbs. | 327 (72.17%) – 13.47 | 8.827 |
ES (6.5)
J.J. McCarthy (Jr)
| Michigan (B1G) | 6’ 2 1/2", 219 lbs. | 332 (72.29%) – 9.75 | 5.864 |
ES (6.3)
I lumped these three
together because they represent the spectrum of good quarterback play in my eyes.
Maye is youthful, fool-hardy, but with the tools to make it work. He handles
the pocket well, but he needs to work on consistency both in decision making
and accuracy, and although he, too a bit of a great degree than Williams, tried
to do too much this year he continued to make NFL caliber throws game in, and
game out. Daniels is an old head, along with Penix and Nix, and while there
were some good things at Arizona State going to LSU has made all the
difference. I liked Daniels more than I thought I would, he delivers the ball
on time, has a handle on pocket manipulation, and of course is a dynamic
runner. While his deep ball is pretty it’s the mundane that may end up being
his undoing at the next level. He took a major step in ’23 which is why he’s
ahead of Penix and Nix but he’s not a prospect devoid of risk. McCarthy wasn’t
leaned on at Michigan as much as the others at the top of this draft, but he
has flashes of things that translate well. He drives the ball outside the numbers
well, a good athlete, and clearly respected in the Michigan locker room. He
gets a little wide in his base which causes some power/accuracy issues, and gets
a bit long in the windup when he’s letting go of the deep ball but much like
Daniels I ended up liking him more than I thought I would.
Michael Penix Jr
(Sr) | Washington (P12) | 6’ 2 1/4", 216 lbs. | 555 (65.41%) – 9.19 |
4.562 | ES (6.1)
Bo Nix (Sr) | Oregon
(P12) | 6’2 1/8”, 214 lbs. | 470 (77.45%) – 11.15 | 9.012 | ES (6.1)
These two will be
lumped together throughout the process, and I can’t really quibble with that
too much. Penix has a number of season ending injuries in his past but he’s the
best recent quarterback at two Power 5 schools (Indiana & Washington). While
his throwing motion looks weird to the eyes it’s compact, snappy, and powerful,
he can get a little loose and it causes the ball to sail on him. He trusted
good receivers in Odunze/Polk/McMillan to make the tough catches and working
with a group that good comes with a bit of a chicken and egg conversation about
who was elevating who. I believe the answer to that question is yes. Nix also
starred at two Power 5 schools (Auburn & Oregon), but he may have the
largest evolution of the older trio at the top. Nix was known for being a high
variance, risk taking, poor decision making but extremely talented quarterback
at Auburn. The last two years at Oregon have seen him work much better in
structure, and improve on his tendency to force balls where they shouldn’t go. He's
turned into a legit NFL prospect, and a player teams can at least find
intriguing without worrying that he’s always a play away from a back breaking
decision.
Joe Milton III (RSSr)
| Tennessee (SEC) | 6’ 5 1/8”, 235 lbs. | 354 (64.69%) – 8.40 | 4.534 |
PS (5.5)
Jordan Travis
(RSSr) | Florida State (ACC) | 6’1 1/8”, 203 lbs. | 353 (64.02%) – 9.78 |
5.264 | PS (5.4)
Sam Hartman (Grad)
| Notre Dame (IND) | 6’1 1/8”, 211 lbs. | 301 (63.46%) – 9.28 | 4.553 |
PS (5.2)
Michael Pratt (Jr)
| Tulane (AAC) | 6’ 2 1/2", 217 lbs. | 283 (65.37%) – 9.21 | 4.395 |
PS (5.0)
Spencer Rattler
(RSSr) | South Carolina (SEC) | 6’ 1/4", 211 lbs. | 399 (68.92%) –
8.00 | 4.120 | PS (5.0)
Finishing out the top-10
(11) are a quintet of mostly older prospects (Pratt is a little over a year
younger than the other four). Let’s highlight what I like most and least about
them:
Milton – He’s highest because he has a special, special arm | Turnovers,
accuracy, and decision making are an issue
Travis – Got
better as the season went on, takes what given, and makes plays out of
structure | Arm is only good enough and coming off massive late season leg injury
Hartman – Hartman
is a good decision maker and athlete | Only has an adequate are and not a huge
playmaker
Pratt – Showed
up against P5 competition, does a good job getting the ball to the right player
| Can get stuck on pre-snap first read and needs to work on getting his base
consistent as the ball sails often
Rattler – A
baller who flashes those 5 star highs | A wild card who’s lows make it very
clear why he got replaced at Oklahoma
The Rest
|
Player |
Cl |
Tm |
Conf |
Ht |
Wt |
ATT |
AY/A |
Cmp% |
Prod |
Role |
Gr |
|
Joe Milton III |
RSSr |
TENN |
SEC |
77.125 |
235 |
354 |
8.40 |
64.69% |
4.534 |
PS |
5.5 |
|
Jordan Travis |
RSSr |
FSU |
ACC |
73.125 |
203 |
353 |
9.78 |
64.02% |
5.264 |
PS |
5.4 |
|
Sam Hartman |
Grad |
ND |
IND |
73.125 |
211 |
301 |
9.28 |
63.46% |
4.553 |
PS |
5.2 |
|
Michael Pratt |
Jr |
TULA |
AAC |
74.5 |
217 |
283 |
9.21 |
65.37% |
4.395 |
PS |
5.0 |
|
Spencer Rattler |
RSSr |
SoCa |
SEC |
72.25 |
211 |
399 |
8.00 |
68.92% |
4.120 |
PS |
5.0 |
|
Austin Reed |
RSSr |
WKU |
AAC |
73.5 |
220 |
470 |
7.33 |
61.49% |
3.254 |
PS |
4.7 |
|
Devin Leary |
Sr |
UK |
SEC |
73.25 |
215 |
371 |
7.25 |
56.33% |
2.891 |
PS |
4.5 |
|
Andrew Peasley |
Grad |
WYO |
MWC |
73.75 |
216 |
266 |
8.09 |
62.41% |
3.795 |
PS |
4.4 |
|
Kedon Slovis |
Sr |
BYU |
B12 |
74.5 |
223 |
266 |
6.31 |
57.52% |
2.674 |
PS |
4.3 |
|
Tanner Mordecai |
RSSr |
WIS |
B1G |
73.625 |
210 |
314 |
6.56 |
64.97% |
3.405 |
PS |
4.3 |
|
Chevan Cordeiro |
Sr |
SJSU |
MWC |
72.625 |
200 |
362 |
8.23 |
61.60% |
3.883 |
PS |
4.2 |
|
Taulia Tagovailoa |
RSSr |
MARY |
B1G |
70.75 |
185 |
437 |
7.70 |
66.36% |
3.805 |
PS |
4.2 |
|
Michael Hiers |
Grad |
SAMF |
FCS |
73 |
205 |
442 |
6.89 |
71.27% |
2.685 |
PS |
4.2 |
|
Jason Bean |
RSSr |
KAN |
BXII |
73.75 |
196 |
199 |
10.87 |
62.31% |
5.246 |
PS |
4.1 |
|
Jayden de Laura |
Jr |
ARI |
P12 |
72 |
205 |
128 |
8.50 |
69.53% |
4.773 |
PS |
4.1 |
|
Emory Jones |
RSSr |
CIN |
B12 |
74.25 |
203 |
322 |
6.57 |
61.18% |
3.139 |
PS |
4.1 |
|
Carter Bradley |
Sr |
SALA |
SBC |
75.125 |
213 |
326 |
8.32 |
67.79% |
3.676 |
B |
4.0 |
|
John Rhys Plumlee |
5th |
UCF |
BXII |
71.75 |
203 |
256 |
8.60 |
62.89% |
4.163 |
B |
4.0 |
|
Garrett Shrader |
Sr |
SYR |
ACC |
77 |
231 |
214 |
7.79 |
62.62% |
3.851 |
B |
4.0 |
|
Phil Jurkovec |
RSSr |
PITT |
ACC |
76.875 |
243 |
112 |
7.13 |
50.89% |
- |
B |
4 |
|
Darren Grainger |
RSSr |
GaSt |
SBC |
75.125 |
209 |
358 |
7.52 |
68.16% |
3.791 |
B |
3.9 |
|
Frank Harris |
RSSr |
UTSA |
AAC |
72.125 |
205 |
336 |
7.42 |
64.88% |
3.414 |
B |
3.7 |
|
Spencer Sanders |
Sr |
MISS |
SEC |
72.875 |
209 |
29 |
11.58 |
65.52% |
- |
B |
3.6 |
|
Gunnar Watson |
Sr |
TROY |
SBC |
74.375 |
200 |
439 |
8.70 |
61.05% |
3.631 |
B |
3.4 |
|
JT Daniels |
Grad |
RICE |
AAC |
74.125 |
237 |
287 |
8.83 |
63.07% |
3.576 |
B |
3.4 |
|
Jack Plummer |
Sr |
LOU |
ACC |
76.375 |
215 |
395 |
7.77 |
64.81% |
3.592 |
B |
3.3 |
|
Rocky Lombardi |
RSSr |
NIU |
MAC |
75.625 |
223 |
327 |
6.64 |
57.80% |
2.636 |
B |
3.1 |
|
Brennan Armstrong |
Grad |
NCSU |
ACC |
72.875 |
199 |
262 |
6.42 |
61.07% |
3.128 |
UDFA |
3.0 |
|
Ben Bryant |
6th |
NW |
B1G |
75.5 |
218 |
277 |
6.45 |
62.45% |
3.001 |
UDFA |
2.9 |
|
Jalen Mayden |
Sr |
SDSU |
MWC |
73.5 |
217 |
314 |
5.79 |
63.38% |
2.582 |
UDFA |
2.6 |
|
Keegan Shoemaker |
Sr |
SHSU |
CUSA |
73.75 |
201 |
419 |
5.49 |
63.01% |
2.384 |
UDFA |
2.5 |
|
DJ Irons |
RSSr |
AKR |
MAC |
75.375 |
205 |
133 |
4.85 |
66.17% |
2.272 |
UDFA |
2.4 |
|
Jeff Undercuffler Jr |
RSSr |
AKR |
MAC |
76.625 |
232 |
213 |
5.67 |
64.32% |
1.828 |
UDFA |
2.3 |
|
Gavin Hardison |
RSSr |
UTEP |
CUSA |
73.875 |
206 |
129 |
5.65 |
56.59% |
2.004 |
UDFA |
2.2 |
|
Zion Webb |
RSSr |
JVST |
CUSA |
74 |
200 |
220 |
5.42 |
50.45% |
1.973 |
UDFA |
2.1 |
|
Jiya Wright |
Sr |
ULM |
SBC |
71.75 |
205 |
204 |
5.29 |
52.45% |
1.914 |
UDFA |
2.1 |
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