2023 NFL Draft - Positional Rankings - Front Seven (INT/Edge/OBLB)

 

The front seven or at least the front four have never been more important in the game of football. Interior linemen, linemen who play heads up on the tackle or inside of that, edge rushers 4-3 DEs and 3-4 OLBs, and off ball linebackers (OBLB), 4-3 LBs, 3-4 ILBs. OBLBs have become devalued while also being one of the most obvious weak spots in a defense against the pass when bad. Much like RBs the NFL has made it clear how they value the position. This class is bad pretty poor for interior linemen, there is one really good player, and a handful of intriguing players, and then it’s rough. Edge rusher has one elite rusher and 10 more players who I’d expect to become starters. There’s good depth in the class. OBLB has three excellent prospects in my opinion with a bunch of prospects with flaws, stronger up top but kind of similar to the wide receiver class.

 

Player | Team (Conference) | Height, Weight

Tackles | Tackles for Loss | Sacks | Forced Fumbles | Production

40-Yard Dash | 10-Yard Split | Short Shuttle | 3-Cone | Vertical | Broad Jump | Role (Grade)

 

Explainer – Player, Team, Height, Weight, Tackles, Tackles for Loss (TFLs), Sacks, and Forced Fumbles are exactly what you’d think. Conference will be the conference for FBS teams and FCS/DII/DIII/NAIA outside of that. Production is just my attempt at creating one number that generally sums up a player’s production on the field. 40-yard dash (40) weirdly correlates to for linemen especially tackles, 10-yard split (10) ability to accelerate and get off the line, Short Shuttle (SS) ability to move and change directions horizontally, 3-Cone (3C) correlates with the ability to move and change directions and closely resembles pulling (3-cone and short shuttle are the two that teams really focus on for lienmen), and the Vertical (VJ) & Broad Jump (BJ) help quantify explosiveness and ability to convert power form the hips. Role & Grade go hand in hand, and there are 5 roles:

Starter (S) - 8.0 – 7.1 – Someone who I think has the ability to make an impact early, or who I think has the ability to be a long-term starter.

Expected Starter (ES) – 7.0 – 6.1 – Someone I expect to be a starter and long-term option but who has some concerns.

Potential Starter (PS) – 6 – 4.1 – Flawed prospect, and where most fall, varied levels of, oof that could sink his career.

Backup (B) – 4 – 3.1 – Potential to make the fringes of a roster, or at least expanded squads, much work to do

UDFA (UDFA) – 3 – 2.1 – The bottom level both in athleticism and production.

 

Top 5 Interior Linemen

Jalen Carter | Georgia (SEC) | 6’3”, 323 lbs

24 Tackles | 7 TFLs | 3 Sacks | 2 FF | 124.25 Prod

40: x.xx | 10: x.xx | SS: x.xx | 3C: x.xx | VJ xx | BJ: xx | S (7.4)

Carter is the best interior player in the draft, he has some decision-making questions off the field, but it’s immediately obvious when watching these guys that Carter possesses something the others don’t. He’s explosive, has varied moves, and dominates physically. Production is a bit on the low side but he’s disruptive even if he’s not getting the ultimate finish. On a loaded Georgia D in 2021 he was considered by many the best player on the field.

 

2023 NFL Draft - Positional Rankings - Offensive Linemen (OT/G/C)

 Next up we have the big men. Tackle is a bit weak up top but a solid second tier, guard has two really good players but little depth, and center is a position of relative strengths.

 

Player | Team (Conference) | Height, Weight | 40-Yard Dash | 10-Yard Split | Short Shuttle | 3-Cone | Vertical | Broad Jump | Role (Grade)

 

Explainer – Player, Team, Height, Weight are exactly what you’d think. Conference will be the conference for FBS teams and FCS/DII/DIII/NAIA outside of that. 40-yard dash (40) weirdly correlates to for linemen especially tackles, 10-yard split (10) ability to accelerate and get off the line, Short Shuttle (SS) ability to move and change directions horizontally, 3-Cone (3C) correlates with the ability to move and change directions and closely resembles pulling (3-cone and short shuttle are the two that teams really focus on for lienmen), and the Vertical (VJ) & Broad Jump (BJ) help quantify explosiveness and ability to convert power form the hips. Role & Grade go hand in hand, and there are 5 roles:

Starter (S) - 8.0 – 7.1 – Someone who I think has the ability to make an impact early, or who I think has the ability to be a long-term starter.

Expected Starter (ES) – 7.0 – 6.1 – Someone I expect to be a starter and long-term option but who has some concerns.

Potential Starter (PS) – 6 – 4.1 – Flawed prospect, and where most fall, varied levels of, oof that could sink his career.

Backup (B) – 4 – 3.1 – Potential to make the fringes of a roster, or at least expanded squads, much work to do

UDFA (UDFA) – 3 – 2.1 – The bottom level both in athleticism and production.

 

Top 10 Offensive Tackles

Paris Johnson Jr | Ohio State (B1G) | 6’6 3/8”, 313 lbs | 40: x.xx | 10: x.xx | SS: x.xx | 3C: x.xx | VJ: xx in | BJ: 110 in | S (7.2)

Broderick James | Georgia (SEC) | 6’5 3/8”, 313 lbs | 40: 4.97 | 10: 1.67 | SS: x.xx | 3C: x.xx | VJ: 30 in | BJ: 108 in | S (7.1)

Johnson has wonderful feet, moves well, has a few rough spots but he’s consistently good and in the right place. James is a mauler at the point of attack and despite looking a bit gangly gains ground and moves well.

2023 NFL Draft - Positional Rankings - Pass Catchers (WRs & TEs)

 

This is a slightly down receiver class, not that there aren’t a number of good, productive, athletic players but because this is a class full of slightly odd body types, and players who fill niche roles. It’s a small class, with 20 players under 5’10” in my in my top 50 and 11 players under 180 pounds. I clearly like many of these players but it is good to acknowledge that roles at the next level may be limited, even if they are talented and good players. Tight ends by contrast, are big, athletic, diverse, and one of my favorite position groups in this year’s draft at a position that is relatively shallow at the NFL level and hasn’t had a good draft class in a while.

 

Player | Team (Conference) | Height, Weight

Catches | Adjusted Yards per Target | Production

40-Yard Dash | 10-Yard Split | Short Shuttle | 3-Cone | Vertical | Broad Jump | Role (Grade)

Explainer – Player, Team, Height, Weight are exactly what you’d think. Conference will be the conference for FBS teams and FCS/DII/DIII/NAIA outside of that. Adjusted Yards per Target (AY/T) is yards per target where rushing receiving TDs19.3 yards. It allows us to make adjustments to the typical stats and get a fuller picture than yards per attempt provides. Production is just my attempt at creating one number that generally sums up a player’s production on the field. As for testing times 40-yard dash (40) denotes long (breakaway) speed, 10-yard split (10) helps to explain acceleration and burst, Short Shuttle (SS) is a change of direction drill, 3-Cone (3C) speaks to ability to cut and accelerate out of breaks, and the Vertical (VJ) & Broad Jump (BJ) help quantify explosiveness. Role & Grade go hand in hand, and there are 5 roles:

Starter (S) - 8.0 – 7.1 – Someone who I think has the ability to make an impact early, or who I think has the ability to be a long-term starter.

Expected Starter (ES) – 7.0 – 6.1 – Someone I expect to be a starter and long-term option but who has some concerns.

Potential Starter (PS) – 6 – 4.1 – Flawed prospect, and where most fall, varied levels of, oof that could sink his career.

Backup (B) – 4 – 3.1 – Potential to make the fringes of a roster, or at least expanded squads, much work to do

UDFA (UDFA) – 3 – 2.1 – The bottom level both in athleticism and production.

 

Top 15 Wide Receivers

 

Jaxson Smith-Njigba | Ohio State (B1G) | 6’0 5/8”, 196 lbs

5 | 5.38 | 0.30

40: 4.52 | 10: 1.65 | SS: 3.93 | 3C: 6.57 | VJ: 35 in | BJ: 125 in | S (7.4)

Quentin Johnson | TCU (BXII) | 6’2 3/4”, 208 lbs

60 | 12.34 | 8.13

40: 4.52 | 10: 1.59 | SS: 4.28 | 3C: 7.31 | VJ: 40.5 in | BJ: 134 in | S (7.1)

Smith-Njigba has the size and ability to play outside receiver but his best role at the next level is probably as a souped up version of Amon-Ra St. Brown. His agility drills (short shuttle and 3-cone) were absolutely fantastic, and while he’s not a burner he’s got plenty of speed to get open vertically. Johnson is more of your classic outside receiver, he’s not a burner either but he’s explosive, has good feet, and doesn’t shy from contact.

2023 NFL Draft - Position Rankings - Running Backs

 Running back has a couple wonderful options, and a lot of intriguing but flawed backs that can certainly fill roles. Much like receivers to come there is a peculiar abundance of undersized backs. Headlined by a very good prospect in Bijan Robinson there’s a choose your own adventure flair to this year’s class.

 

Player | Team (Conference) | Height, Weight

Touches | Adjusted Yards per Rush | Adjusted Yards per Target | Production

40-Yard Dash | 10-Yard Split | Short Shuttle | 3-Cone | Vertical | Broad Jump | Role (Grade)

Explainer – Player, Team, Height, Weight are exactly what you’d think. Conference will be the conference for FBS teams and FCS/DII/DIII/NAIA outside of that. Adjusted Yards per Rush (AY/R) & Adjusted Yards per Target (AY/T) is yards per rush/target where rushing TDs adds 18.4 yards and receiving TDs19.3 yards. It allows us to make adjustments to the typical stats and get a fuller picture than yards per attempt provides. Production is just my attempt at creating one number that generally sums up a player’s production on the field. As for testing times 40-yard dash (40) denotes long (breakaway) speed, 10-yard split (10) helps to explain acceleration and burst, Short Shuttle (SS) is a change of direction drill, 3-Cone (3C) speaks to ability to cut and accelerate out of breaks, and the Vertical (VJ) & Broad Jump (BJ) help quantify explosiveness. Role & Grade go hand in hand, and there are 5 roles:

Starter (S) - 8.0 – 7.1 – Someone who I think has the ability to make an impact early, or who I think has the ability to be a long-term starter.

Expected Starter (ES) – 7.0 – 6.1 – Someone I expect to be a starter and long-term option but who has some concerns.

Potential Starter (PS) – 6 – 4.1 – Flawed prospect, and where most fall, varied levels of, oof that could sink his career.

Backup (B) – 4 – 3.1 – Potential to make the fringes of a roster, or at least expanded squads, much work to do

UDFA (UDFA) – 3 – 2.1 – The bottom level both in athleticism and production.

Top 15 Running Backs

Bijan Robinson | Texas (BXII) | 5’11”, 215 lbs

277 | 7.41 AY/R | 11.75 AY/T | 8.89

40: 4.46 | 10: 1.54 | SS: x.xx | 3C: x.xx | Vert: 37 in | BJ: 124 in | S (7.4)

Jahmyr Gibbs | Alabama (SEC) | 5’9 1/8”, 199 lbs

195 | 6.99 AY/R | 7.17 AY/T | 5.96

40: 4.36 | 10: 1.51 | SS: x.xx | 3C: x.xx | Vert: 33.5 in | BJ: x in | S (7.1)

Robinson is really good but some of the upside comps for this man are a bit ridiculous. He’s very good and maybe just a step off elite. That said he’s well rounded in both phases of the game, with good balance and vision. Gibbs is explosive, he had an up and down year for an up and down offense but when watching him the thing you notice is his ability to get north-south and destroy intermediate pursuit angles.

 

2023 NFL Draft - Positional Rankings - Quarterbacks

 We’re a week out from the draft and as always, I’m “behind”, although if it’s always I’m right on schedule. We start where we do every year and where everything revolves around in the football world… Quarterback. It’s an interesting class of flawed yet interesting prospects, with no-one quite fitting neatly in a prototypical box.

 

Player | Team (Conference) | Height, Weight | Attempts | Adjusted Yards per Attempt | Completion % | Production | Role (Grade)

Explainer – Player, Team, Height, Weigth, Attempts, Completion % exactly what you’d think. Conference will be the conference for FBS teams and FCS/DII/DIII/NAIA outside of that. Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A) is yards per attempt but each TD adds 19.3 yards and each interception subtracts 45 yards. It allows us to make adjustments to the typical stats and get a fuller picture than yards per attempt provides. Production is just my attempt at creating one number that generally sums up a player’s production on the field. It is incredibly flawed but I’ve never found a single statistic that accurately sums up quarterback play… it’s a starting point and by no means the end all be all. Role & Grade go hand in hand, and there are 5 roles:

Starter (S) - 8.0 – 7.1 – Someone who I think has the ability to make an impact early, or who I think has the ability to be a long-term starter.

Expected Starter (ES) – 7.0 – 6.1 – Someone I expect to be a starter and long-term option but who has some concerns.

Potential Starter (PS) – 6 – 4.1 – Flawed prospect, and where most fall, varied levels of, oof that could sink his career.

Backup (B) – 4 – 3.1 – Potential to make the fringes of a roster, or at least expanded squads, much work to do

UDFA (UDFA) – 3 – 2.1 – The bottom level both in athleticism and production.

Top 10 (11) Quarterbacks

Bryce Young | Alabama (SEC) | 5’10 1/8”, 204 lbs | 380 Attt | 9.79 AY/A | 64.47% | 5.475 | ES (6.7)

C.J. Stroud | Ohio State (BXII) | 6’3”, 214 lbs | 389 Attt | 10.82 AY/A | 66.32% | 5.950 | ES (6.5)

Young and Stroud lead the class for me. The most obvious differences is in build, an obvious concern for Young, roughly five inches in difference Young will have issues around visibility in the pocket but he did well dealing with pressure in the pocket on a slightly underwhelming Bama offense. Stroud moves alright, he’s not an athletic freak but he showed against Georgia he can scoot when he needs to. What sets Young apart for me is his ability to anticipate routes, play outside of structure, and make tight window throws off platform. Stroud has the better pure arm, and showed some flashes with his legs and creativity, but his lack dynamism is a slight concern.