2014 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receiver

Next up on our preview of the fantasy football season we move to the outside of the field. Wide receiver is a deep position but the options for elite talent are limited to a select few. Unlike RB, however, wide receiver is much deeper when you get past your elite top options and good performers are still to be found in later rounds. I have struggled on how to set up this preview, unlike running back where I have a very specific set of criteria with which to judge running backs I have a less defined set of criteria on which I judge receivers. There are a couple stats I look at; first, is pass attempts which are fickle and need to be treated with caution. Teams that throw a lot may be heavy passing teams or they may be teams that are down a lot and these need to be differentiated. Second I look at the catch percentage, not receptions, but the catches in reference to the targets. Third and most importantly opportunity, you want a guy who is going to start at one of the top two spots on the depth chart and be out there on most snaps, unless it is a truly prolific offense. Past performance and type of receiver always come into consideration as well.

Ranking Criteria

Pass Heavy Offenses (In Order): Denver, Green Bay, Philadelphia, New England, Cincinnati, Detroit, San Francisco, Carolina, Seattle, Arizona, Dallas and Kansas City

The first six are no surprises all are expected to throw at an elevated rate and with good success. San Francisco, Carolina and Seattle are all teams that were well above .500 last seasons and still posted very good passing numbers which shows a willingness to throw the ball but not a rate driven up by late game scrambles to make up points quickly. Arizona’s head coach focuses much of his offenses on stretching the field and getting big plays through the air, Dallas is always in close games and tends to need to run up the score with a below average defense. Kansas City probably surprises some but they had just shy of 600 pass attempts last season but don’t really push the ball down the field all that well with the limitations of Alex Smith.

High pass attempts and behind a lot: Minnesota, Cleveland, Giants and Miami

These were all poor teams that needed to pass to have a chance at pulling out games they shouldn’t have won and that leads to questions about their strategies being pass oriented or just passing by necessity.

Above average passing games: New Orleans, San Diego, Indianapolis, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Baltimore

These are all teams with high pass numbers but all have shown a commitment to being more balanced and a tendency to run more than they can or should.

Elite Catch Rates (2013 best first): Nate Burleson (Cleveland), Julian Edelman (New England), Lance Moore(New Orleans), Doug Baldwin (Seattle), Marques Colston (New Orleans), Brandon Gibson (Miami), Keenan Allen (San Diego), Jordy Nelson (Green Bay), Randall Cobb (Green Bay) and Kendall Wright (Tennessee)

Now I would guess there is some variance year over year on this stat but all of these players have one of two things in common. 1) above average quarterback play and/or 2) slot receivers with short catch areas. Another note is Burleson, Gibson and Cobb all had low target numbers which might skew the results.

Poor Catch Rates (2013, worst first):  Santonio Holmes (Free Agent), Aldrick Robinson (Washington), Stephen Hill (Jets), Chris Givens (St. Louis Rams), Justin Hunter (Tennessee), Kenbrell Thompkins (New England), Torrey Smtih (Baltimore), Darius Heyward-Bey (Indianapolis), Jerome Simpson (Cincinnati) and Davone Bess (Free Agent)

This one finds a different combination, Smith, Heyward-Bey, Hill and Simpson are deep threats which will lower their conversion rate. Many on this list aren’t great recievers, like Heyward-Bey, Hunter, Thompkins and Bess. The others are raw prospects that need to grow into the positions.

Depth Chart Position: Instead of putting every teams depth chart down, I’ll just link you to the site I use… http://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchartpos/wr

For Your Consideration: The Rankings

Tier 1: Elite

1) Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions

2) Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos

3) A.J. Green, Cincinnati

4) Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys

5) Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears

6) Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers

To me these are the six elite wide receivers many will say that it may just be the top four but Marshall has been incredibly consistent average 162 points the last three years and not one year under 135. Nelson for his part has the best passer throwing to him and no other outside threat on the team to poach deep routes and targets from him. You would be very, very happy to have any of these six on your roster as your #1.

Tier 2: Very Good With Flaws

7) Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers

8) DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins

9) Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons

10) Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons

11) Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

12) Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears

13) Percy Harvin, Seattle Seahawks

14) Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers

15) Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This group has top five upside but everyone has a downside. Jones, White, Harvin and Cobb have top five talent but all had injury issues last season that leave doubts lingering. Brown, Fitzgerald and Jackson all have minor QB or offensive issue that leave me tepid. Jeffery for his part is just a second option on his team but still a top 10-15 talent. Once again these ranks aren’t me hating on any one of these players, they just have slight questions.

Tier 3: Injury, Youth and QB Questions

16) Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

17) Victor Cruz, New York Giants

18) Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles

19) Julian Edelman, New England Patriots

20) Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers

21) Wes Welker, Denver Broncos

22) Pierre Garcon, Washington Redskins

23) Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers

24) Golden Tate, Detroit Lions

25) Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts

26) Greg Jennings, Minnesota Vikings

27) James Jones, Oakland Raiders

28) Jericho Cotchery, Carolina Panthers

29) T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

30) Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins

31) Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens

This is another set of good options but they all fall into the second starter or premier bench options in most leagues. Johnson, Cruz, Jennings, Jones, Wallace and Smith all have relatively large QB or offense related questions that limit their production potential. Maclin, Crabtree, Welker and Wayne all have major injury red flags that worry me. Edelman, Garcon, Allen, Tate, Cotchery and Hilton need to show a year over year consistency to move up the rankings, Allen and Hill for youth reasons. I wouldn’t mind having any of these as my number two receiver but if I ended up with them as #1s I would have concerns coming out of my draft.

Tier 4: Good Bench Gambles/ Deep League Starters

32) Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints

33) Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs

34) Riley Cooper, Philadelphia Eagles

35) Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota Vikings

36) Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals

37) DeAndre “Nuke” Hopkins, Houston Texans

38) Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

39) Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers

40) Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans

41) Eric Decker, New York Jets

42) Vincent Brown, San Diego Chargers

43) Jacoby Jones, Baltimore Ravens

44) Marvin Jones, Cincinnati Bengals

45) Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars

46) Hakeem Nicks, Indianapolis Colts

47) Andre Hawkins, Cleveland Browns

48) Nate Washington, Tennessee Titans

49) Marcus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers

50) Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos

51) Chris Givens, St. Louis Rams

52) Mike Williams, Buffalo Bills

53) Denarius Moore, Oakland Raiders

54) Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills

55) Harry Douglas, Atlanta Falcons

56) Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys

57) Aaron Dobson, New England Patriots

58) Donny Avery, Kansas City Chiefs

59) Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The top of this group has high upside sleeper potential. The rest are solid bench options and occasional starters beyond just bye week fill-ins but now we’re getting into the territory of unknown commodities and people in new positions that they haven’t produced in yet.

Tier 4: Deep Deep Leagues/ Players to Watch

60) Jarrett Boykin, Green Bay Packers

61) Brian Hartline, Miami Dolphins

62) Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins

63) Josh Gordon, Cleveland Browns

64) Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens

65) Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints

66) Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints

67) Kenny Britt, St. Louis Rams

68) Rod Streater, Oakland Raiders

69) Rueben Randle, New York Giants

70) Mohammed Sanu, Cleveland Browns

71) Ryan Broyles, Detroit Lions

72) Cody Latimer, Denver Broncos

73) Danny Amendola, New England Patriots

74) Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers

75) Lance Moore, Pittsburgh Steelers (Too Low?)

76) Robert Woods, Buffalo Bills

77) Stevie Johnson, San Francisco 49ers

78) Tavon Austin, St. Louis (Will he be used right?)

79) Stephen Hill, New York Jets

80) Justin Hunter, Tennessee Titans

81) Jason Avant, Carolina Panthers

82) Jermaine Kerse, Seattle Seahawks

83) Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants

84) Quinton Patton, San Francisco (PT?)

85) Dexter McCluster, Tennessee Titans

86) Kenbrell Thompkins, New England Patriots

87) Malcolm Floyd, San Diego Chargers

88) Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

89) Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles

90) Marques Lee, Jacksonville Jaguars

These are guys to keep on rosters in deep leagues or if you have a large gut feeling to take flyers on butI don’t feel confident in any of them being week in week out studs. Except Austin who if used right has top 20 potential.

Tier 5: Need to Be in Here Somewhere

91) Ace Sanders, Jacksonville Jaguars

92) Josh Morgan, Chicago Bears (Too Low?)

93) Mario Manningham, New York Giants

94) Ted Ginn Jr., Arizona Cardinals

95) Jeremy Kerley, New York Jets

96) Austin Pettis, St. Louis Rams (See Tavon Austin)

97) Jerome Simpson, Minnesota Vikings

98) Dwayne Harris, Dallas Cowboys

99) Keshawn Martin, Houston Texans

100) Aldrick Robinson, Washington Redskins

101) Nate Burleson, Cleveland Browns (Way too low or old?)

102) Jared Abbredaris, Green Bay Packers

103) Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots

104) Darius Heyward-Bey, Indianapolis Colts

105) Andre Roberts, Arizona Cardinals

106) Santonio Moss, Free Agent

107) Miles Austin, Cleveland Browns (Injuries)

108) Sidney Rice, Seattle Seahaws

109) Brandon Gibson, Miami Dolphins

110) Davone Bess, Miami Dolphins

111) Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars (Suspension)

112) Santonio Holmes, Free Agent

113)  Robert Meachem, New Orleans Saints

There are a few guys in this group that worry me, one is Nate Burleson because he may be the number one in Cleveland but I don’t have much faith in him. The others are Josh Morgan who might be the #3 in Chicago and Austin Pettis if the offensive staff finds some competence with using weapons.

Wide receiver looks deep on first blush but the drop off in consistency means that loading up on flyers in leagues without restrictions or in deep leagues where you’re digging deeper into starting WR lineups.