2014 NFL Preview: AFC West

The AFC West was an also ran division a few years ago but 2014 saw a nice bounce back. Denver behind Peyton Manning was the AFC representative in the Super Bowl, Kansas City made the playoffs after a two win season in 2012, San Diego made the playoffs with a resurgent offense and a youth movement on defense, but Oakland continued to struggle because of bad roster management of the previous regime. This could be one of the best divisions in the AFC in 2014 if the three teams not named the Broncos continue to make strides and the Broncos continue to be among the class of the conference.

Quarterbacks

Denver Broncos – 1) Peyton Manning 2) Brock Osweiler

Kansas City Chiefs – 1) Alex Smith 2) Chase Daniels

Oakland Raiders – 1) Matt Schaub 2) Derek Carr 3) Matt McGloin

San Diego Chargers – 1) Phillip Rivers 2) Kellen Clemens

The Denver quarterback position is pretty simple Peyton Manning will be the QB ‘til he breaks or until father time takes him down. The neck injury may have hindered his ability to move the ball as deep downfield as he use to but he is still one of the most cerebral quarterbacks in the league. His backup Osweiler is still pretty much an unknown out of Arizona State and that leaves worries with a 38 year old quarterback in front of him. Kansas City brought Alex Smith in for a second rounder two off-seasons ago and it led to good results last season. The biggest knock on Alex Smith is the lack of arm strength that prevents him from consistently attacking a defense vertically but he is very accurate, very athletic and a relatively smart player who can execute when given an adequate game plan that fits his ability. Chase Daniels spent his first four years in the league sitting behind Drew Brees and was brought in this offseason to be the backup to Smith. Daniels doesn’t have a whole lot of film either but showed some in the little time he got. Oakland is Houston but with a better rookie and a veteran that had a couple years where he was better than average in the league. Schaub was not that in 2013 however and was so so much worse. Schaub only gets to a TD-INT ratio of 14-14 if you add his pick sixes to his touchdowns, but a new situation and an offense that every DC doesn’t know right away should assuredly help him be competent. Carr and McGloin add two young QBs who have question marks, McGloin showed signs of a pulse but lacks mobility and has an average arm which make him look like a Cassel type without the New England hype season to keep him around. Carr is a rookie with a big arm, but he has the same body as Bridgewater and showed a lack of accuracy at Fresno State last season. Phillip Rivers had a renaissance in 2014 under first year head coach Mike McCoy, we saw the accuracy and the ability to consistently push the ball down field. If Rivers can continue to curtail some of the bad decisions (I think he can), and keep the accuracy up he should be able to reclaim his status as a top ten QB in the NFL. Kellen Clemens is what he is, a good backup an occasional spot start but if asked to hold down the fort it will not end well. Final Rankings: Den, SD, KC, Oak

Running Backs

Denver Broncos – 1) Montee Ball 2) Ronnie Hillman

Kansas City Chiefs – 1) Jamaal Charles 2) Knile Davis 3) Cyrus Gray

Oakland Raiders – 1) Darren McFadden 2) Maurice Jones-Drew 3) Latavius Murray

San Diego Chargers – 1) Ryan Mathews 2) Danny Woodhead 3) Donald Brown

The 2013 Denver Broncos had a very respectable rushing attack, some of that is the accumulation of rushes in blowout wins, some is due to the ability of Peyton Manning to audible to a run against fewer men in the box, but most should go to the backs and their ability to take advantage of those situations. Ball has a lot to prove this season with the top spot completely to himself, Ball was a beast at Wisconsin but late in his career there and last season in Denver he had some fumbling issues. The key for him to stay on the field will ultimately be Peyton’s confidence in his pass blocking abilities which have yet to be fully tested. Hillman is a good spill option and may be the third down back early in the season. Kansas City has a very nice stable of running backs but the top two have had major knee injuries and Gray was injured in college. Charles is one of the most explosive backs in the league, but good enough between the tackles. He is just as dangerous catching the ball and is major factor on screens and routes out of the backfield. Knile Davis did a good enough job filling in for Charles and was very good spilling him last season. Gray hasn’t seen much action but shows good athleticism and burst but needs to get better at creating yardage off of his first cut. Overall this is a very good set of backs and with continued health will be a sense of stability for the Chiefs. Oakland’s running back strategy looks to be gamble on older oft-injured running backs and back them up with a low experience back with upside and no NFL production to speak of. McFadden for his part has all the tools to be one of the ten best running backs in football but at age 26 he has missed games in each of the last three seasons and has never been the season long factor he shouldn’t be. To back up their always injured starter the Raiders brought in Maurice Jones-Drew from Jacksonville who dealt with lower body injuries the second half of the season and missed most of 2012 with a foot injury. Jones-Drew is also 29 and in the age range and workload range where almost all running backs start to decline fast. To back up these two the Raiders have second year running back Latavius Muray from UCF who was on injured reserve last season. Murray is a big back at 6’3” 230 lbs and has had good reports out of Oakland mini-camps (use caution with OTA reports). So Oaklands top three are 26 year old hasn’t played a full season McFadden, 29 year old, used often and injured lately Jones-Drew and Murray a second year running back who missed 2013 on IR. San Diego added Danny Woodhead last year and Donald Brown this year to back up Ryan Mathews who has had injury issues early in his career. Mathews for his part missed no games last season but did have a nagging hamstring late in the year and saw ankle issues reappear in the playoffs. Before that he missed time with ankle and clavicle troubles in 2011 and 2012. Woodhead got his start with the Jets and saw his stock soar with the Patriots before landing in San Diego last season. He has predominantly been a receiving back throughout his career but a very good one of those and should once again be the third down back for the Chargers. Brown spent his entire career in Indianapolis first behind Peyton Manning and then Andrew Luck to mixed success and a wonder if he was ever playing up to his talent. 2013 probably should have been better as he looked to be the better back than Richardson most of last season but the Colts let him walk and he landed in SD. If Mathews goes down he should be a suitable spot replacement but needs to consistently hit the wholes to really be a good option for the Chargers. Final Rankings: KC, SD, Den, Oak

Receiving Corps

Denver Broncos – 1) Demaryius Thomas 2) Wes Welker 3) Emmanuel Sanders 4) Andre Caldwell 5) Cody Latimer TE1) Julius Thomas TE2) Joel Dreessen

Kansas City Chiefs – 1) Dwayne Bowe 2) Donnie Avery 3) Junior Hemingway 4) A.J. Jenkins TE1) Anthony Fasano TE2) Travis Kelce

Oakland Raiders – 1) James Jones 2) Rod Streater 3) Denarius Moore 4) Juron Criner TE1) David Ausberry

San Diego Chargers – 1) Vincent Brown 2) Keenan Allen 3) Malcolm Floyd 4) Eddie Royal TE1) Antonio Gates TE2) Ladarius Green

Denver has one of the three best QBs in the league depending on whose opinion you’re listening to, and that certainly makes any group of receivers look good but, this is a very good group onto themselves. Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders have had success outside of Manning with Tebow, Brady and Rothlesberger respectively. Thomas is the field stretcher with hand and speed to bring down the long ball, Welker is the prototype slot with quickness and an ability to get open in the clogged space between the hashes and Sanders can play inside or out and create at the intermediate level. Behind those three is Manning’s old teammate Andre Caldwell and the rookie out of Indiana Cody Latimer. I think Latimer takes playing time from an aging Caldwell but both should be useful options in an offense that airs the ball out plenty. Julius Thomas emerged last season as a real option for the Broncos and another threat to the seams that opens the field up even more and Dreessen isn’t a game changer but has sure hands as a check down option. Kansas City’s most productive receiver last season was Donnie Avery out of the slot underneath, many weeks he was the primary third and long option on passes that traveled fiver or so yards. Dwayne Bowe is the number one here but is a bit under-utilized because of the inability of Smith to stretch the field vertically and his inconsistent hands throughout his career. Behind them are two unknowns, Junior Hemingway was very productive in at Michigan in an inconsistent offense and A.J. Jenkins was traded by San Fran after little production his first two seasons there. The tight ends don’t bring a lot to the table but Fasano should be an average option and Kelce is an unknown but good athlete. The Raiders receivers are an interesting compilation, Jones came from Green Bay in free agency, Streater and Moore have been underproductive options in below average Raider offenses and is a third year receiver out of Arizona but hasn’t done much at the NFL level. James Jones was very productive in Green Bay and was a very good deep threat but there is always a healthy level of skepticism about WRs going from Hall of Fame level quarterbacking to average or worse passers in their next stop (see Greg Jennings), now his production may not be the same but Jones is a viable starting receiver in this league. Streater and Moore both brought down over 14.5 yards per reception last season but with inconsistent quarterback play neither put up great yardage but the underlying stats show receiver with ability. If both can continue to develop and the offense gets anywhere close to competent quarterback play this could be a receiving corps that surprises in 2014. Criner needs to step up and should opportunity in the slot role, he has the speed and ability to make an impact but has disappointed so far. San Diego has done a good job at bringing in receiver talent in recent years but injuries and a downturn in Rivers play have hindered some of the development. Vincent Brown has been a very consistent contributor for the Chargers but needs to stay healthy to reach his full potential. Keenan Allen was one of the biggest rookie surprises in the NFL and was a boon for the Chargers in 2013. Allen produced 1046 yards and 14.7 yards per catch and was a revelation for a squad that had multiple injuries to receiver Brown and Floyd. Floyd has shown flashes of great talent but injuries have tempered the optimism of many about him, but before he got injured he averaged almost 25 yards per catch. Gates at TE has been one of the best performers at his position but age and a myriad of foot injuries have slowed him in recent years but he is still a solid and consistent target for Rivers. The biggest upside here may be the second tight end Ladrius Green. Green had just 17 receptions last season but average 22 yards on those catches and is still raw and extremely athletic and should continue to grow into a very dangerous receiving threat. The success of this group will ultimately be the health of Gates, Brown and Floyd but youngsters Green and Allen bring a level of excitement and promise that should make fans extremely excited. Final Rankings: Den, SD, Oak, KC

The offenses in this Division showed a great turn towards the positive in 2013 and outside of Denver need to show that those strides will carry over in 2014. Denver has a hall of fame QB and a great receiving corps, ultimately the running games ability to develop with Montee Ball will be the biggest key to making sure that big leads turn into going away wins. San Diego has the second best QB in the division and has a promising group of receivers that if healthy could rival Denvers, the running backs are good but not spectacular but I like the progress seen so far under the Mike McCoy regime. Kansas City will go as far as Alex Smith can take them and that has a ceiling on it. Smith is a good quarterback but he doesn’t threaten defenses vertically and that limits things. The receivers are good enough but not really something to write home about, but the running back depths is really good and Jamaal Charles is a premier back in the league. Oakland needs stabilization from the quarterback position and I don’t see Schaub being good enough nor Carr being ready year one to do the things that are needed to compete in this division.

Defense

Denver Broncos – 4-3 Key Players: DE Derek Wolfe, DT Sylvester Williams, SLB Von Miller, CB Aqib Talib, SS T.J. Ward Impact Needed: DT Terrance Knighton, SS Rahim Moore, CB Bradley Roby, CB Chris Harris

Denver had a very promising defense coming into the 2013 campaign but injuries and age caught up key places that left them vulnerable much of the season. Heading into a new year the Broncos need Von Miller to return to form at LB to help create pressure off the edge. In the middle the combination of Sylvest Williams and Terrance Knighton need to get pressure up the middle with the increased effectiveness of offenses in the Division. In the backfield the addition of Aqib Talib and rookie Bradley Roby look to ease the transition from the Champ Bailey era in Denver at CB. T.J. Ward and Rahim Moore have the ability to be one of the league’s best safety combinations and with improved front seven play should be a force to reckon with. This unit has the ability to wreak havoc on the AFC West and with improved back four play to be even better in 2014 than a solid showing in 2013.

Kansas City Chiefs – 3-4 Key Players: NT Dontari Poe, OLB Justin Houston, ILB Derrick Johnson, OLB Tamba Hali, SS Eric Berry, CB Sean Smith Impact Needed: ILB Nico Johnson, OLB Dee Ford, FS Husain Abdullah, CB Chris Owens

Kansas City was a team that highlighted the importance of coaching in the NFL. This was a unit that had a lot of players recognized in the postseason but the output in 2012 was mediocre at best. The Chiefs cut Brandon Flowers after a subpar 2013 but the Chiefs defense brings back a lot of talent. Eric Berry is one of the best FS in the league and has the ability to roam over the top and be a playmaker. Berry and Sean Smith are the stalwarts in the back four which will need help from Husain Abdullah and Chris Owens. The front four is deep, Dontair Poe has taken his freak athleticism and turned into one of the most dominant nose tackles in the league. Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are very good OLBs and Houston is a beast of a pass rusher. Those two will be complimented by rookie Dee Ford out of Auburn who will probably be a situational pass rusher year one as he transitions from 4-3 defensive end. Derrick Johnson anchors the middle and this looks to be a very good unit once again in 2014.

Oakland Raiders – 4-3 Key Players: DE Lamar Woodley, DE Justin Tuck, WLB Sio Moore, CB D.J. Hayden, FS Charles Woodson, CB Carlos Rogers Impact Needed: SLB Khalil Mack, CB Chimdi Chekwa

Oakland’s offseason approached seemed to focus a lot on the short term. The additions of Woodley and Tuck don’t do much for the future and put a lot of the impetus on success on aging players coming off of subpar performances with good pedigree. In the back four Charles Woodson and Carlos Rogers are good vets but don’t have much upside and need to perform well along with Chimdi Chekwa to just make this an average defense. The future has some bright spots, the last two first round picks, Kahlil Mack and D.J. Haden are very good athletes and Mack has game chaning upside if nothing else he looks good enough to provide a rookie season in the mold of Von Miller’s in Denver. This is a group that doesn’t have a great upside but the development of young players and stabilizing forces of vets should improve this unit from a disappointing 2013.

San Diego Chargers – 3-4 Key Players: DE Corey Liuget, ILB Manti Te’o, OLB Dwight Freeney, FS Eric Weddle Impact Needed: OLB Melvin Ingram, OLB Larry English, CB 

Shareece Wright, CB Jason Verrett

San Diego has done a very good job of bringing in talent on the defensive side of the ball the last couple of drafts. Now they need those players to begin performing at a higher level. The biggest improvements are in the front seven with players like Corey Liuget, Melvin Ingram, Larry English and Manti Te’o all have shown flashes but now need to put it all together to mold a cohesive unit that. Veterans Dwight Freeney and Eric Weddle play key roles at OLB and CB and need to recreate very good 2013s. Rookie corner Jason Verett could be the key cog and should be a very good option for this defense in the slot to start the season. The Chargers are a nice young players ready to pop and veterans who continue to perfrom and I have high hopes for the development of this unit in 2014.

Kansas City has the best group of talent on the defensive side of the ball but the corners need to develop and lean on the front seven early on to be a consistent unit. Denver and San Diego are very comparable, good young talent and a nice corps of veterans but the secondary play is subpar and young players need to take the next step to catch up to the Chiefs. Oakland has a ways to go but they are building a nice core of youth that should pay dividends in the future.

Denver is the best team in the division with one of the best offenses in the league and a defense that is good enough to take advantage of the positive positions the offense will put them in. Kansas City should be good once again with Andy Reid and staff putting them in position to utilize the talent they have on the roster and mitigate the weaknesses on the team. Oakland should be better but don’t have an upside that is above average and this is a team that needs a solid performance to put them in position for the future. San Diego is ready to compete once again, the offense has good leadership and a nice core of talent but the defense needs to see continued improvement from the younger players.

1) Denver Broncos

2) San Diego Chargers

3) Kansas City Chiefs

4) Oakland Raiders