The 2013
season saw the AFC South take a bit of a dive in quality. Houston was expected
to win the division and contend for the AFC crown but injuries at RB,
unimaginative play-calling and well below average QB play doomed them to the
first pick in the draft. Jacksonville and Tennessee where about what was
expected of them, although Tennessee didn’t make as many strides as expected.
Indianapolis, however didn’t regress to the extent that many, including me,
thought they would. That is the power of a very good QB and a weak division.
Quarterbacks
Houston Texans – 1) Ryan Fitzpatrick 2) Case Keenum 3) Tom Savage
Indianapolis Colts – 1) Andrew Luck 2) Matt Hasselbeck
Jacksonville Jaguars – 1) Chad Henne 2) Blake Bortles
Tennessee Titans – 1) Jake Locker 2) Charlie Whitehurst
The Texans
are the Browns from last season, four options, none of them enticing or even
all that palatable. Fitzpatrick is a good spot start, but he isn’t the
quarterback you want leading your team into the season. Keenum has done well
enough in spots but doesn’t have the upside of quarterback of the future.
Lastly, Tom Savage is the rookie of the bunch, with a big arm but questionable
accuracy and refinement. If Savage has to start this season it will be trouble
for the Texans. Andrew Luck is one of the best young quarterbacks in the league
and finally has the weapons at receiver to put up the numbers that would befit
a quarterback of his stature. Luck needs to work on his accuracy and decision
making but his pocket skills and ability to throw on the run are top notch.
Hasselbeck should be able to fill in a couple times if necessary but if Luck
goes down for the year, the oft injured backup will be a spot of consternation
for the Colts. Chad Henne should be a backup, he fits into that
Fitzpatrick/Hasselbeck role really well but because of the need to build up
rookie Blake Bortles he will be the starter in Jacksonville. Bortles for his
part has the physical build you would want from your starter but needs to work
on mechanics and pushing the ball downfield with more consistency. Locker has
one more season to prove to the new regime that he is still the quarterback of
the future. For Locker unfortunately he still seems more comfortable outside
the pocket than in it, with a healthy offensive line in front of him 2014 will
be his chance to carry the Titans. Whitehurst is a non-factor for me he keeps
getting backup jobs but hasn’t shown anything that would get you excited. Final Rankings: Ind, Ten, Jac, Hou
Running Backs
Houston Texans – 1) Arian Foster 2) Andre Brown
Indianapolis Colts – 1) Trent Richardson 2) Vick Ballard 3) Ahmad
Bradshaw
Jacksonville Jaguars – 1) Toby Gerhart 2) Jordan Todman 3) Denard
Robinson 4) Storm Johnson
Tennessee Titans – 1) Shonn Greene 2) Bishop Sankey 3) Jackie Battle
The thing
that jumps out to you with the Texans running back depth chart is first, they
only have two really intriguing options, and two, both of those options are
injury prone. Foster has been hurt each of the last two seasons and came into
the league off of a knee injury. Andre Brown was on the injury list 15 weeks
the last two seasons with a leg injury. If I had to pick out the player that
could benefit most and may have to play it would be rookie Alfred Blue from LSU
who is a bruising back that should be able to thrive in an offense that is
going to need to rely on the running game while the offense figures out what
the QB can do. Indianapolis traded a first round pick for Trent Richardson,
which for better or worse means that he is the starting running back.
Richardson was atrocious last season, rushing for 3 yards a rush and a long of
22 for a running back that cost you a first rounder you’re going to need much
better production than that. Behind Richardson the Colts have Vick Ballard and
Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw is the more exciting option of the two, but has major
injury risk that limits his upside. Ballard for his part missed all of last
year with a knee injury. So to sum up the Indianapolis running back situation,
Trent Richardson who averaged 3 yards a carry and two injury prone backups who
could be better but may not stay on the field. Toby Gerhart is the starter in
Jacksonville to start the season for better or worse, and personally I think
for better. In his years behind Peterson in Minnesota he has averaged above
four yards per carry and has shown some flashes in very limited time. Behind Gerhart
are a bunch of unproven commodities, Jordan Todman, Dennard Robinson and Storm
Johnson. Todman has been with the Jaguars for two season but has seen only a
handful of carries as he was third on the depth chart. Dennard Robinson is the
most intriguing player to me as he moves into his second year of transition to
a skill position after playing quarterback his entire college career at
Michigan. If he finds his stride he could be fun WR/RB tweener in an Antwaan
Randle El mold. Storm Johnson may end up second on the depth chart, he’s a
solid producer at the college level with good athleticism who should be able to
stand up to a pass rush and get good yards out of the backfield. The Titans
backfield is a puzzle that may not have all the pieces to complete the picture.
Shonn Greene is an average running back at best and require too much of the
offenses commitment to get going. Bishop Sankey could be the key that make this
engine go, but as always with rookie running backs he needs to be good in pass
protection and won’t be able to bounce to the outside as often as he did at
Washington. Jackie Battle fits in here, if only as a third down back to spill
either one of the two in front of him but he isn’t anything more than a spell
back who can catch the ball out of the backfield. Final Rankings: Hou, Jac, Ten, Ind
Receiving Corps
Houston Texans – 1) Andre Johnson 2) DeAndre Hopkins 3) Keshawn
Martin 4) DeVier Posey TE1) Garrett Graham TE2) Ryan Griffin
Indianapolis Colts – 1) Reggie Wayne 2) Hakeem Nicks 3) T.Y.
Hilton 4) Da’Rick Rogers TE1) Dwayne Allen TE2) Coby Fleener
Jacksonville Jaguars – 1) Cecil Shorts 2) Ace Sanders 3) Allen Robinson 4) Marques Lee TE1) Marcedes Lewis
Tennessee Titans – 1) Kendall Wright 2) Nate Washinton 3) Justin
Hunter 4) Dexter McCluster TE1) Delanie Walker
For all the
shortcomings of the rest of the Houston offensive roster the receiving options
are very good. Andrew Johnson leads the group and although he is aging a bit he
is still one heck of a big possession threat that gets open and does very good
work. On the other side of the field second year player DeAndre “Nuke” Hopkins
is a beast of a player with a beast of a nickname that can stretch the field and
provide a much different threat to a defense than Johnson. Hopkins showed this
in his rookie season by putting up a very impressive 15.4 yards per reception,
which placed him 20th in the NFL. Martin is a quick slot type in his
third season with Houston and has put up eight yards a reception which is
respectable for a slot and Posey the fourth receiver in limited time over the
past two years has put up a little over ten yards a reception. In four receiver
sets the Texans are a very dangerous and very good combination of deep threat
and underneath catching ability that should enhance whoever starts for the
team. Indianapolis took another step in the right direction in the offseason to
put a competent receiving corps around quarterback Andrew Luck, by adding Hakeem
Nicks to the mix. No longer will the Colts be forced to put Darius Heyward-Bey
on the field which should reduce the drops and take some of the pressure off of
T.Y. Hilton. Hilton for his part is an explosive threat out of the slot, Hilton
followed up his rookie season (17.2 ypc) with an impressive 13.2 yards per
catch on 30 more receptions in 2014 while handling the bulk of the pressure
with Wayne out with a knee injury. Wayne for his job is aging a bit but is
still one of the surest catchers in the league and can high point with the best
of them. If he returns to health in 2014 he will be a boon for Luck and the
offense. Nicks was the biggest acquisition to the targets and he gives the
Colts an outside receiver to put across form Wayne. Nicks has had some injury
concerns in his past but in the deep passing game of the Giants put up 16 yards
a catch last season and should be able to stretch the field against man
coverage and stretch the defense vertically for Wayne and Hilton to work
underneath. Da’Rick Rogers didn’t play until week 12 of his rookie year but the
wide receiver out of Tennessee has the talent to be a very good wideout in the
NFL . He needs to work on drops and his route running constancy but he is a
valuable fourth option on a team that has three very good players in front of
him. It gets deeper for the Colts as their two TE picks from two years ago have
shown to both be very good receiving options from the tight end position. If
Allen comes back from injury in 2014 and returns to 2012 form Fleener and him
should be one of the best receiving tight end duos in the league. Jacksonville
has to be ruing the lost opportunity with Justin Blackmon being suspended
indefinitely for substance abuse problems. The young receiver has immense
talent and with him leading the way the Jaguars would have had one of the most
promising receiving corps in the league. Instead, this is a shallow corps that
needs a lot of young and unproven players to make immediate impacts in 2014.
Cecil Shorts is the leader of the bunch and has been productive early in his
career with above 12 yards a reception, the issue is that without a consistent
threat across from him his production dropped by four yards a reception in
2013. The problem for shorts in 2014 is he still doesn’t have anyone proven
around him. The second receiver on the roster is Ace Sanders the speedy slot
receiver out of South Carolina who had a semi-productive rookie campaign.
Behind those two the next spots on the roster are the second round rookies in
Allen Robinson and Marquise Lee one of which will be the starter on the outside
opposite Shorts. I like both Robinson and Lee, and I would bet that Robinson
will be the starter as he is more of possession receiver and has less drops
concerns than Lee does coming off their respective 2013 college campaigns.
There just aren’t any reliable options behind Cecil Shorts on this roster. At
first blush I didn’t have positive thoughts about the Tennessee receiving
corps, but then I went to check the numbers. Kendall Wright stands out first
off because I expected to see like 7-8 yards per catch and good yardage because
he got the ball thrown his way so much. Imagine my surprise when, I looked and
saw that in a year with almost 100 catches he racked up 11.5 yards per catch.
That is mighty impressive. From ’08-’13 Nate Washington has put up 15.5 yards
per catch or more all but two of those season and never dropped below 12.5. He
should have an even greater increased role this year with Kenny Britt off the
roster. The biggest upside on the roster is Justin Hunter who only had 18
receptions but put up almost 20 yards a catch last season. If he can
consistently catch the ball and continue to improve his route running Hunter
could breakout as a beast in 2014. McCluster is known as a game breaking player
who can make small gains into big plays but the numbers don’t back that up. He
averaged 10 yards a carry just once and that was in his rookie year three years
ago if he is going to live up to the billing. Final Rankings: Hou, Ind, Ten, Jac
This
division is a bit of an offensive conundrum, the quarterback play, outside of
Luck, is subpar. The running back depth is shallow, but the wide receiver corps
are deep and some of the best in the league. Indianapolis is probably the best overall on account of luck and
the second best receiving corps. Tennessee
has the second best quarterback of the bunch and a receiver group just behind
Indy and Houston, the key thing in favor of Tennessee is that Sankey the rookie
running back isn’t as far behind the Houston backs as Fitzpatrick is Locker. Houston has a great receiving corps and
the best running backs in this division, but the running backs both have major
injury concerns and the quarterback play is well below average. Jacksonville is in a similar QB
situation with Henne but Bortles has upside that none of the Houston QBs have.
The receivers have talent and Gerhart may end up the best running back in the
division, but 2014 may not be the year it all comes together.
Defense
Houston Texans – 3-4 Key Players: DE J.J. Watt,
OLB Whitney Mercilus, ILB Brooks Reed, ILB Brian Cushing, CB Jonathan Joseph,
CB Kareem Jackson Impact Needed: DE Jared Crick, DT Louis Nix III, OLB
Jadeveon Clowney, CB Brandon Harris, SS D.J. Swearinger
The Texans
defense was by all accounts one of the top ten units in the league last season
and a look at the talent populating their base 3-4 set to see why. That all
starts with J.J. Watt, what is a beast of a 3-4 DE and there is really no good
or equal comparison to his talent or impact on a football game by anyone in
football. Behind Watt, are the linebackers Mercilus, Reed, Cushing and rookie
freak Jadeveon Clowney. Mercilus had seven sacks in 2013, Reed and Cushing can
play sideline to sideline, and Clowney if nothing else is a freak athlete who
should be able to impose his presence on the edge of an offense. Behind the
front seven, Jonathan Joseph is a top level talent and Kareeme Jackson has
improved after a rough rookie campaign. Brandon Harris and D.J. Swearinger both
should improve and with that you have a beast of a defense. This doesn’t even
account for increased production out of Jared Crick and the addition of Louis
Nix in the nose tackle rotation that make this front seven one of the scariest
in the NFL.
Indianapolis Colts – 3-4 Key Players: ILB D’Qwell Jackson, OLB Robert Mathis, CB
Vontae Davis Impact Needed: DE Ricky Jean-Francois, OLB Erick Walden, FS
LaRon Landry
Indianapolis
had some moments on defense but an overall inconsistent year highlighted by
inconsistent play in the backfield and below average talent on the line. Walden
was given a much larger contract than he probably should have and he played
below that level, if this defense is to take another stop this season it needs
better play from Walden especially with Robert Mathis suspended to start the season.
At safety LaRon Landry can lay the wood but he gets lost too much in coverage
to be a rock for the Colts defense. Davis for his part was a nice acquisition,
but he needs to stay healthy. This is a defense that needs to keep adding
pieces but the offense should put them in a lot of positions to be aggressive
and make the opponent drive the length of the field.
Jacksonville Jaguars – 4-3 Key Players: MLB Paul Posluszny, SS Jonathan
Cyprien Impact Needed: DE Tyson Alualu, DE Chris Clemons, DE Red Bryant,
DE Andre Branch DT Ziggy Hood, CB Dwayne Gratz, CB Will Blackmon
The Jaguars
collection of talent is intriguing and the players added in free agency where
with the clear intent to improve the pass rush. With the release of Babin
(6/19) the impetus for the pass rush falls to Alualu, Clemons, Bryant and Andre
Branch. Clemson and Bryant were brought over from the Super Bowl champs both
are good players, but without the rotation and creativity of their prior
defense they will almost assuredly be less productive this season. Branch and
Alualu have been in Jacksonville for two and four years respectively the
release of Babin suggests that they like the improvement of one of them and
more than likely that is Branch. Up the middle is the strength of this defense
with Paul Posluszny and Jonathan Cyprien holding down the MLB and SS positions.
If the Jaguars are going to take a leap then they will need push from Ziggy
Hood up the middle and Gratz and Blackmon at CB. I like the staff and program
in Jacksonville but there are a lot of holes to fill and a lot of question
marks to answer.
Tennessee Titans – 3-4 Key Players: DT Jurrell
Casey, OLB Akeem Ayers, CB Jason McCourty, FS Michael Griffin Impact Needed:
DE Derrick Morgan, OLB Shaun Phillips, CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson
The Titans have
actually had a solid defense the last couple of seasons but the biggest missing
piece was the pass rush from the OLB. Defensive
backfield is a solid collection but the loss of Alterraun Verner at cornerback
is going to be tough to replace right away. McCourty and Michael Griffin are
very good and will be of great importance but it will be the effectiveness of
the front seven in getting pressure that will be the real key. Casey and Ayers
are able players but Ayers is not really a pass rusher. The good news is both
Casey and Derrick Morgan combined for 16.5 sacks last season. Shaun Phillips is
going to need to add some pass rush off the edge and Wreh-Wilson needs to pick
up the slack from the loss of Verner and take strides in his sophomore season.
The Titans should be good enough but I don’t think they added the explosive
threat that would bump them up the ladder of defenses.
The defenses
have as many questions as the offenses. Houston
should be a force to reckon with, even if the offense puts them in bad field
position a little more often than optimal. Tennessee
doesn’t have the playmakers to make put the fear of god into offenses like
Houston but they should be a solid unit that doesn’t put their offense into
many bad positions. Indianapolis for
their part has pieces but doesn’t have a unit that screams cohesiveness or
scary. They were predicated on takeaways last season and that should lead to
some regression in 2014 but they have some players and good scheme and good
field position should be helpful. Jacksonville
added a very good amount of veteran talent to the defensive line and have some
young players that have the chance to grow into major roles but this is still a
defense in transition.
Much like
the AFC East the best team goes to the offense that is so far ahead of its compatriots.
Indianapolis has the best QB by far, a great set of receivers and a defense that
should have plenty of opportunities to pin its ears back. Tennessee has solid
components on both sides but no unit that is elite and a quarterback and pass
rush situation that don’t inspire a whole lot of confidence. Houston doesn’t
have a quarterback on the roster that is a quality NFL option but the defense
should be elite and is loaded with some very impressive talent. Jacksonville
has been building a very impressive view for the future but does not yet have
the talent in place on both sides of the ball and still looks to be a couple
years out from the view of the future coming to fruition.
1) Indianapolis
Colts
2) Tennessee
Titans
3) Houston Texans
4) Jacksonville
Jaguars
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