The AFC East
has been dominated the last decade by the New England Patriots, who have won
the division nine time with the Dolphins taking the top spot in 2008. The Jets
have been the second most consistent in that time making the playoffs four
times and making the conference championship game in two of those years. Since
the historic 2007 campaign by the Patriots it has felt like the armor has
cracked but no one in the division has been able to take much bite out of their
supremacy but both all three challengers have young pieces in place but have
any made the strides necessary to overthrow the kings in 2014.
Quarterbacks
Buffalo Bills – 1) EJ Manuel 2) Thaddeus Lewis
Miami Dolphins – 1) Ryan Tannehill 2) Matt Moore
New England Patriots – 1) Tom Brady 2) Ryan Mallett
New York Jets – 1) Geno Smith 2) Michael Vick
As far as
quarterbacks are concerned this conference is Tom Brady then everyone else and
that is with a Brady that was sub-optimal last season. Mallett is less proven
than the other 2nd options, which is both a worrisome with Brady’s
age, but doesn’t have the negative associations the others have from playing
time. Ryan Tannehill ranks second and although he hasn’t yet reached what many
had hoped he would be I’m going to give him a bit of a pass. Tannehill has been
hampered in his young pro career first by having to play under Mike Sherman,
who isn’t exactly the most creative figure and then by an offensive line that
would struggle against blocking dummies have certainly had an effect on his
improvement to this point in his career. The last two are both in the same boat
for me, they are both raw young quarterbacks that need to work on multiple
areas to become average starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Smith needs to work
on his accuracy and consistency, last year he showed strides a couple times but
never showed it consistently afterwards. Manuel was hurt most of 2014 and was
subbed for better than expectedly by Thad Lewis which should put some pressure
on Manuel in camp. The backups stack up like this Vick, Lewis, Mallett, Moore. Final Rankings: NE, MIA, NYJ, BUF
Running Backs
Buffalo Bills – 1) C.J. Spiller 2) Fred Jackson 3)
Anthony Dixon 4) Bryce Brown
Miami Dolphins – 1) Knowshon Moreno Ed Note: (Knee Injury reported 6/20) 2) Lamar Miller 3)
Daniel Thomas
New England Patriots – 1) Shane Vereen 2) Steven Ridley 3) Brandon
Bolden 4) James White
New York Jets – 1) Chris Johnson 2) Bilal Powell 3) Chris
Ivory
The Bills
brought in Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown to bolster what is a very good
backfield but to add some youth behind Fred Jackson. Jackson has taken some
carries from Spiller the last couple years both because of Spiller’s inconsistency
and his aptitude to get injured. Dixon and Brown were backups in SF and PHI
respecitively before coming to the Bills but should be nice change of pace and
spill backs in what is now one of the best backfields in the league talent
wise. Miami drafted both Miller and Thomas to become workhorses in recent
drafts but neither has shown the ability to take hold of the role for
themselves, which lead directly to the acquisition of veteran Knowshon Moreno.
Moreno won the battle for the starting job in Denver last season over Rookie
Montee Ball and had a very productive season for the Broncos, but Moreno is oft
injured which makes the depth of this corps very shallow and uncertain. Any
improvement in the offensive line should immediately be beneficial to all of
the backs in this system. New England has been running back by committee almost
exclusively for the last three or four seasons, to the ire of fantasy owners,
with pretty good success. Ridley is probably the most talented of the bunch but
fumbling problems have found him on the bench each of the last two seasons and Vereen
has been injured just about every year. Bolden did a good job in spot duty last
season but lacks the explosiveness of Vereen or Ridley. The addition of James
White through the draft who can catch the ball well out of the backfield and
pass block adds a third down back to spell Vereen when injured and make this
four man backfield competent in all areas. The Jets are the most lackluster of
the bunch, Chris Johnson is a name and a competent fantasy back but he misses
too many holes and doesn’t bust enough big plays to make up for the mental
lapses. Powell is a bit of an unknown journey man back who can do an honest job
and Ivory was never good enough to earn the top place in a New Orleans
backfield that was in dire need of someone to step up and take control. Final Rankings: BUF, NE, MIA, NYJ
Receiving Corps
Buffalo Bills – 1) Sammy Watkins 2) Mike Williams 3) Robert Woods 4) Marquise
Goodwin TE1) Scott Chandler TE2) Tony Moeaki
Miami Dolphins – 1) Mike Wallace 2) Brian Hartline 3) Brandon
Gibson 4) Jarvis Landry TE1)
Charles Clay
New England Patriots – 1) Julian Edelman 2) Danny Amendola 3) Kenbrell
Thompkins 4) Aaron Dobson 5) Bradon LaFell TE1) Rob Gronkowski TE2) D.J.
Williams
New York Jets – 1) Eric Decker 2) Stephen Hill 3) David
Nelson 4) Jeremy Kerley TE1) Jeff Cumberland TE2) Jace Amaro
The Bills
pick of Sammy Watkins in the first round and trade for Mike Williams show a
concerted effort to get E.J. Manuel weapons to succeed in his second year in
Buffalo. With the trading of Stevie Johnson this is a very young receiving
corps with the next two on the depth chart being second year players. Robert
Woods and Marquise Goodwin found roles for themselves last season. Both will
play out of the slot in 2014 with Woods being an across the middle threat and
Goodwin and his impressive speed helping the bust the seam over the top with his
speed. The success of this offense will be based around the running game but
the ability of the young receiving threats to improve and grow will be the key
to offensive success in of the 2014 Bills offense. Miami’s receiving corps has
some talent but the biggest obstacle may be the ability of the offensive line
to give Tannehill time to throw. Wallace’s production is predicated on the ability
of him to get open on deep routes that take time materialize and the last
couple years have not seen the ability of that to happen consistently. Hartline
for his part is a very good compliment to Wallace as his game is predicated on
short routes and an ability to get separation at the line of scrimmage. The
x-factor for this offense may be Jarvis Landry, the rookie from LSU, who isn’t
as big or fast as you would want but caught everything that came his way in his
career at LSU. The slots and Clay from the TE position will be good underneath
but if a pocket materializes this year the deep ball should be more in play in
2014. New England is once again in the position it has been in every year
except for the mammoth 2007 campaign. They don’t have the outside talent or
threat to be extremely explosive but Edelman and Amendola should be able to
exploit the middle and terrorize the inside of the defense when healthy. The
biggest passing catalyst is probably the health of Rob Gronkowski and his
ability to stretch the field in the seam and give Brady a consistent deep
threat. The Patriots passing game is predicated on the health of the options
and the consistency of the Brady deep ball which ebbed and flowed last season
between good and below average. The Jets passing game was bad in 2013, between
Geno Smith and the rookie growing pains and Mark Sanchez’s inability to stop
his regression as a passer they underwhelmed for the entirety of last season’s
campaign. Stephen Hill is the deep threat on this team but his inconsistent
hands and underdeveloped route running abilities have held him back. The big acquisition
in the offseason was Eric Decker who spent the last couple seasons in Denver
and looked very good but he is transitioning from Peyton Manning to Geno Smith
and/or Michael Vick which is at least one step down in QB talent. Decker is a
sound receiver but I have my doubts about how good he will be as a de facto number
one receiver in a below average passing attack. At the slot the Jeremy Kerley
has to be feeling some heat after the Jets drafted Jalen Saunders who fits
perfectly into the Kerley mold in this year’s draft. At TE Jeff Cumberland is a
solid if unspectacular player and Jace Amaro comes in as a big bodied rookie
who has the ability to make an early impact on this offense up the seams. Final Rankings: BUF, NE, MIA, NYJ
Overall the
offenses in this division are uninspiring but New England, at least production wise, should be a top third
offense in the league with Tom Brady at the helm. The next best should be Buffalo but that is very much dependent
on the play of E.J. Manuel and the health of C.J. Spiller and an aging Fred
Jackson. Miami should slot in third
but a suspect at best offensive line needs to take a jump forward to be
anything more than a hit or miss unit that has parts but not a cohesive unit
that scares defenses. The Jets bring
up the rear with suspect QB play, below average running back play and a
receiving corps with a lot of question.
Defense
Buffalo Bills – Scheme: 4-3
Key Players: DE Mario Williams, DT Marcel Dareus, WLB Kiko Alonso, CB
Leodis McKelvin, CB Stephon Gilmore Impact Needed: SS Aaron Williams, DE
Alan Branch, CB Corey Graham
The Bills
made a concerted effort the last couple season to bring in talent on the
defensive side of the ball to return to competence and then more and the
efforts have shown in a defense that seemed to take some strides in 2013. The
back four was still a bit of an enigma but the front seven showed flashes of beastliness.
Mario Williams was brought in during free agency two years ago and underwhelmed
in 2012 but him and Dareus have greatly improved a front that lacked
disruption, combining for 23.5 sacks in 2013. Kiko Alonso had a breakout rookie
campaign providing two sacks and four interceptions. The big loss for this
group is Jairus Byrd at safety who left for New Orleans but Leodis Mckelvin,
Stephon Gilmore and Aaron Williams are intriguing young players who make up a
secondary that has the talent to take a step forward in 2014. This group was
alright last season but they have the pieces in place to improve upon the
improvement from 2013.
Miami Dolphins – Scheme: 4-3
Key Players: DE Cameron Wake, DT Jared Oderick, MLB Dannell Ellerbe, CB
Brent Grimes, CB Cortland Finnegan Impact Needed: FS Louis Delmas, DE
Dion Jordan
Cameron Wake
came out of nowhere two years ago after being picked up in free agency from the
CFL but the rest of the defense has lagged behind in terms of disruption.
Oliver Vernon was the leader of the team in sacks but was the only other player
to have more than four and a half sacks on the entire defense. The line needs
to be better for this defense to be elite next season, the worrisome thing from
a solid 2013 campaign was the fact that four of the top seven tackles leaders
where defensive backs. If Oderick and Starks make strides in 2014 this could be
again one of the better defenses in the league, but could also be one of the
more disruptive.
New England Patriots – Scheme: Multiple
Key Players: DT Vince Wilfork, DT Tommy Kelly Impact, MLB Jerod Mayo, CB
Darrelle Revis Impact Needed: DT Dom
Easley, DE Chandler Jones, SLB Dont’a Hightower, CB Alfonzo Dennard
The
headliner for this team is the addition of Darrelle Revis to a unit that has
had trouble with the consistency of play in the back four the last couple of
seasons. Revis is used correctly is at worst the third best cornerback in the
NFL. The key to the success of the 2014 defense will none the less be the
health and effectiveness of Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly and incoming rookie Dom
Easley and the disruption in the middle of the line. Chandler Jones is a freak
athlete at DE and has the ability to be a poor man’s version of Watt in Houston
and the play of the linebackers. Jerrod Mayo is a rock and one of the most
consistent middle linebackers in the league and Dont’a Hightower is in his
second season out of Alabama and is a heady player who should show signs of
improvement with another year of development from the staff in New England.
This defense has the pieces but the health of the front three/four are the key
to success of the rest of a group with talented question marks in the back
seven.
New York Jets – Scheme: 3-4
Key Players: DE Sheldon Richardson, ROLB Quinton Coples Impact
Needed: DE Muhammad Wilkerson, CB Dee Milliner, CB Kyle Wilson, SS Calvin Pryor, FS Antonio Allen
The Jets
Defense has been the bastion of hope on a team that has consistently underwhelmed
in the Rex Ryan era. The biggest question marks heading into 2014 is the
defensive backfield, Kyle Wilson has underwhelmed as an outside corner but has
the talent and ability to be a good slot corner. Milliner was underwhelming in
year one, which has become more of the norm in the last few seasons for top
cornerbacks coming out of college. The safety duo of Antonio Allen and rookie
Calvin Pryor fit the mold of Ryan safeties with Pryor being the attacking hard
hitting FS and Allen being the over the top help for the back seven. If the
young promising talent of the front seven continues to come together and
Wilkerson can take leap in his second season then this could be another impressive
unit in the division.
Final Defensive Rankings: MIA, BUF,
NE, NYJ
Ultimately
in this division I think the gulf between the Patriots offense and the rest of
the groups is too large to predict anyone else to win it but there is some
intriguing young talent populating the rosters all around that will make major
contribution in 2014. This division is surprisingly a great combination of defenses
with underwhelming offensive units, outside of New England, that could surprise
this season. Now onto the standings…
1) New England Patriots
2) Buffalo Bills
3) Miami Dolphins
4) New York Jets
No comments:
Post a Comment