2017 College Football Season: Top/Bottom Ten's and Conference Overviews

Let us start to work our way down from the 10,000 ft view that is the 1-130 ranks. By looking at those at the tops and bottoms of the two groups we split teams in.

The top of the big boys list is what you'd expect with all four playoff teams return to that level in my preseason ranks. The bottom is a little weird. My rankings seem to hold up Pac-12 teams and I'll admit I don't have a surefire way outside of letting it settle out over a few years. It's also important to note that all of these are my systems power ranks and not my personal feelings. At the top of the Group of 5 ranks we have the usual suspects minus THE usual suspect. Boise State is auspiciously missing from this list. The bigger thing is probably Temple and Western Michigan still being right up there despite loosing coaches that brought them to nigh unmatched heights. That said, Troy brings back literally there entire offense from last season, USF is loaded and gets Charlie Strong; whom I still believe in. Memphis was better in what was suppose to be a down year. Wyoming has Josh Allen and a really good coach. At this point Navy is Navy, and Houston has Ed Oliver. If you don't know who Ed Oliver is, you have 2 more years to watch him and you absolutely need to. I won't focus in on the bottom 10 too much because it's just shitting on poor teams and that's not really enjoyable unless they're a rival of your team and in that case you can do it yourself.

Power 5 Top 10				Group of 5 Top 10
Team	Conf.	Div.	Rating	Team	Conf.	Div.	Rating
Alabama	SEC	West	30.62	Western Michigan	MAC	West	9.76
Washington	PAC	North	25.26	USF	AAC	East	9.61
Clemson	ACC	Atl	21.88	Memphis	AAC	West	5.50
Ohio State	B1G	East	21.83	Colorado State	MWC	Moun	5.29
Florida State	ACC	Atl	21.70	Troy	SuB	-	3.66
Penn State	B1G	East	20.33	Temple	AAC	East	3.13
Auburn	SEC	West	19.37	BYU	Indep	-	3.02
Colorado	PAC	South	18.28	Wyoming	MWC	Moun	2.81
Washington State	PAC	North	18.08	Navy	AAC	West	2.60
USC	PAC	South	17.30	Houston	AAC	West	2.49
Power 5 Bottom 10				Group of 5 Bottom 10
Baylor	BXII	-	-2.90	Connecticut	AAC	East	-14.16
Iowa State	BXII	-	-3.06	New Mexico State	SuB	-	-15.53
Notre Dame	Indep	-	-4.21	Ball State	MAC	West	-15.61
Rutgers	B1G	East	-5.06	Charlotte	CUSA	East	-16.29
Texas Tech	BXII	-	-6.65	Rice	CUSA	West	-17.06
Illinois	B1G	West	-7.81	UTEP	CUSA	West	-17.61
Michigan State	B1G	East	-8.13	Fresno State	MWC	West	-18.35
Purdue	B1G	West	-8.52	Buffalo	MAC	East	-20.99
Virginia	ACC	Coa	-9.49	UAB	CUSA	West	-22.50
Kansas	BXII	-	-17.66	Texas State	SuB	-	-23.23

 

 I will, however, draw your attention to the conferences that pop up most in both lists. At the P5 level the ACC and Pac-12 show up in the top 10 and on the bottom the lower levels of the Big Ten and Big XII are pretty bad. At the G5 level, the AAC shows up big in the top 10, while Conference USA needs some things to change in major ways if they're going to return to the glory that caused the Big East to raid there ranks.

With the general idea of conference strength starting to get fill out let's continue to narrow our preview parameters and take a look at the conference level. The columns are pretty self explanatory but I'll just address Variance really quick. I wanted to give you an idea how much ratings varied within the conference. Whether there was a wide range from to to bottom or if it's a pretty consistent conference good or bad. Low number is good, high is bad, and there's some noise in there due to 10-14 data points in each conference.

No shock at the top. Yes the ACC gave the SEC a run for their money last season, but it's the relative quality at the bottom of the conference that makes the SEC so good. I discussed the Pac-12 at the top and my personal ranks would have the ACC as the second best conference pretty easily, but these ranks are based on my preseason numbers. As we move down the ranks, the variance in the Big Ten and Big XII caught my eye. And it makes sense. At the top of the Big Ten you have Ohio State/Penn State/Michigan/Wisconsin but you also have Purdue/Illinois/Rutgers. As for the Big XII, well Kansas is trending in the right direction generally but it's still a multi-year rebuild and the top isn't nearly as strong as the tops of the rest of the Power 5. As we start to look at the bottom half of the chart I like the way this chart shows the split between P5 and G5, but highlights the strange split we're starting to see between the AAC and the rest of the G5. There's still work to be done, before they can out and out claim to be on the level with the bottom of the P5, but they're consistent from top to bottom but seem to produce a legitimate monster from their ranks each season. I threw the independents in here for fun, but there's not really anything to say about them and they aren't affiliated with each other so I really shouldn't include them here. 

The G5 is AAC on one side, CUSA on the other and then three conferences with similar standing in the CFB universe. The Mountain West has a Boise problem. Now that's not really relevant to the chart I'm doing this around, but I'm not sure where I'd have a chance to speak on this. Problem is the wrong word in a vacuum, but in the current reality we live in with perception shaped the way it is, the Mountain West has a Boise problem. We judge the MWC on Boise so when they show out in the early part of the season we praise them, but we don't really lay it at the feet of the conference. Then in conference play when Boise drops a game, we don't say, "Hey, Colorado State just beat Boise they're pretty good." We say, "Man Boise lost again in conference I guess they just can't get back to the level they were at." I say this looking at this year as a year where Colorado State may legitimately be better than the Broncos. And we'll give them some due, but we'll mostly talk about them through a blue colored lens and that seems incredibly unfair to what has been a much better conference than I think many know because of TV contracts and west coast start times. I love the MAC and as 75% Big Ten football that gets weird late night during the week it's the best, but it could really use some consistency outisde of Toledo being good but always coming second in it's division every year. Yes like the AAC and other G5 conferences it has an as soon as we get a good coach ya'll hire him away from problem, but the thing keeping it from starting a run like the AAC is recruiting and that's a real shame because the "Craddle of Coaches" is real good fun when it's rolling. Now the conference of these three that has the chance to get on an AAC like roll is the Sun Belt. it has a SEC problem, but the way they've handled attrition and addition should make fans of the conference happy. There's one other thing. After this season, Idaho heads to FCS and New Mexico State heads to independence and that means that the average for the conference should go up and continued success and quality from the likes of Arkansas State/Appalachian State/Georgia Southern and a resurgent Troy means we should have some interesting battles for king of the lesser conferences. Where the Sun Belt mostly added teams with built in fan bases and traditions, and the AAC tried to addthe most succesful teams they could while keeping a modest eye on markets and housholds, Conference USA went all out for TV markets and households right as that entire way of doing business was falling apart. They've added a couple interesting pieces, but the overall strategy seemed to lean heavily on off the field conditions and it has shown in product, produciton, and ratings. The real bummer is they've completely wasted a really nice run of talented WKU teams. It's not a good conference and currently has no real identity and that's a crying shame because it really was something to behold before it had to Frankenstein itself back together.

Conference Overview
Conference	Highest Rated	Lowest Rated	Average	Variance
SEC	Alabama (30.62)	Missouri (3.55)	10.82	46.01
PAC	Washington (25.26)	UCLA (-2.84)	9.99	64.06
ACC	Clemson (21.88)	Virginia (-9.49)	7.69	60.25
B1G	Ohio State (21.83)	Purdue (-8.52)	5.95	122.26
BXII	Oklahoma (14.97)	Kansas (-17.66)	1.63	87.35
AAC	USF (9.61)	UCONN (-14.16)	-1.67	47.94
Indep	BYU (3.02)	UMASS (-13.81	-3.39	43.45
MWC	Colorado State (5.29)	Fresno State (-18.35)	-7.38	51.16
MAC	Western Michigan (9.76)	Buffalo (-20.99)	-7.87	60.29
SuB	Troy (3.66)	Texas State (-23.23)	-8.49	47.19
CUSA	WKU (2.26)	UAB (-22.50)	-11.84	36.42

On to divisions, and it's status quo at #1 again. The SEC West is the best division in CFB, and it's not all that close. After the SEC West, there are two more divisions without a team rated below 0; The ACC Atlantic and the SEC East. The two may be the most consistent and even divisions in the country this year. In the Atlantic you have quite possibly the best trio of teams in a division and conference: Clemson|Florida State|Louisville. Add in a good NC State team, a tricky Wake Forest, BC's defense, and Syracuse's offense and you have a great six team division. But Syracuse and BC have to field the other side of the ball so you have a very good division with a couple teams that have major problems. As for the SEC East, well everybody's pretty good, but no one's great, which makes for a very competitive year and a very mediocre perception. There are two other divisions in what is tentatively tier 2 of the divisional rankings and those are the two Pac-12 divisions. The north has three of the four best teams in the conference (UW|WSU|STAN) and Oregon who made a great hire, but CAL and OSU aren't great. In the South USC is going to be really good, Colorado is in a very good place, and Utah has been extremely consistent. It's brought down by ASU|UA and UCLA has been consistently inconsistent. Tier three is B1G country and the other ACC division. The B1G East is really good up top with OSU|PSU|UM but MSU has bottomed out to near Rutgersian levels and #TeamChaos (IU) isn't really a divisional asset. The B1G West is, well not as good. It doesn't have the variance that the East does, but Purdue and Illinois are still pretty bad. The B1G East is Wisconsin and the rest and that'll need to change for it to move up in the ranks. As we move into the G5 we again have a division that stands out from it's peers.The AAC West is by far the best division in the G5 at the moment. The AAC East and the MWC Mountain have the pedigree to give the East a run, but a division with Houston, Memphis, and Navy is in really good shape right now. If SMU can make an ascension with Chad Morris and Tulsa can keep being consistently fun and above average, while the rest of the conference continues to make great hires the sky is the limit for the division. Let's head to the AAC East while we're at it. USF is the best team in the conference this year and it isn't close compared to their division. If Temple|Cincy|UCF can keep the high levels they're playing/played at in recent years this could be a very good division in it's own right and make this a conference to really keep an eye on. As mentioned earlier I like the set-up of the MWC Mountain with Boise State, Colorado State, Utah State, and Wyoming all have good foundations and coaches, but Air Force has a ways to go to be Navy west, New Mexico is at least a consistent level of below average. So the foundations is there, but perception is going to be slow to catch up. The MAC West gets a lot better with if CMU is resurgent and CMU returns to what it was in the middle of the last decade. Right now the division is buoyed by WMU|NIU|Toledo and being held back by Ball State. That gets us through the fifth divisional tier And into the depths of CFB. The last four divisions are interesting in that CUSA East (Poor WKU), CUSA West, and MWC West are just consistently bad. Where as the MAC East is bad on average and a large range with Buffalo being one of the worst teams in FBS. 

Divisional Overview
Division	Highest Rated	Lowest Rated	Average	Variance
SEC-W	Alabama (30.62)	Mississippi State (4.55)	12.65	74.98
P12-N	Washington (25.26)	California (-.94)	10.83	73.12
ACC-A	Clemson (21.88)	Boston College (1.16)	10.30	58.71
P12-S	Colorado (18.28)	UCLA (-2.84)	9.15	53.58
SEC-E	Georgia (13.73)	Missouri (3.55)	8.99	10.36
B1G-E	Ohio State (21.83)	Michigan State (-8.13)	5.95	122.26
ACC-C	Georgia Tech (11.64)	Virginia (-9.49)	5.07	48.10
B1G-W	Wisconsin (15.57)	Purdue (-8.52)	4.02	69.13
AAC-W	Memphis (5.50)	Tulane (-6.28)	1.11	13.10
MWC-M	Colorado State (5.29)	Air Force (-12.81)	-3.83	50.00
MAC-W	Western Michigan (9.76)	Ball State (-15.61)	-4.12	68.25
AAC-E	USF (9.61)	UCONN (-14.16)	-4.45	67.34
CUSA-E	WKU (2.26)	Charlotte (-16.29)	-9.55	37.77
MWC-W	San Diego State (-1.37)	Fresno State (-18.35)	-10.94	27.00
MAC-E	Miami (OH) (-5.21)	Buffalo (-20.99)	-11.61	135.69
CUSA-W	UTSA (-6.19)	UAB (-22.50)	-14.12	24.66

So there we are. This piece ended up about twice as long as I expected it to and I enjoyed thinking about it a bunch. Hopefully you enjoyed reading it, and helped you look at where CFB is right now form an overall, conference, and divisional level. To sum it up, SEC still on top, ACC coming quickly, my system loves the Pac-12, B1G bottom holding it back, BXII in danger of falling into a middle 2 tier with the AAC, MWC/MAC/SuB are solid conference where good football can be played, and the CUSA is poor and wasting WKU. College football is back Saturday and it feels like it's been gone for an eternity.