2018 College Football Season: Week 5 Preview: I've Learned Not to Underestimate the Inevitable

I’m going to try to tie these headlines into the opening of these preview pieces. This week we head deeper into a season that seems to have an inevitability about who the best teams are and what the playoff will look like. I want to fight this, but I’d agree it looks like some combo of Georgia/Bama/Ohio State/Penn State/Oklahoma. Now PSU/OSU is this week, and Washington/Stanford/Oregon will have something to say about all of this but the elite this year seem to be separating themselves. But… This is college football and just when you think you have a grasp of what it is, it will rip your heart out and get weird (say hello Wisconsin-BYU).

Weekday Slate (Thursday/Friday)

I don’t know what either Miami or UNC are but Miami should be able to whoop UNC but Pitt should have as well, and the ACC doesn’t like nice things that aren’t Clemson.

Early Slate (11:00-13:00)

The theme of the early slate looks to be a mixed bag of “Beat ‘Em Down” and “hmm, that could be interesting”. Bama, A&M, MSU, Oklahoma State, Indiana, and Georgia Tech should have easy Saturday mornings. Clemson gets a tricky date with a clicking Dino Babers offense, BC comes off a terrible loss to Purdue with a tricky spot against Temple, WVU gets shootout-y with a Texas Tech team that seems to be clicking for a nearly off the hot seat Kliff Kingsbury, and Buffalo gets an 8-possession game against an Army team that went toe to toe with Oklahoma.

Afternoon Slate (14:30-15:30)

Let’s split this slate up too.

Don’t Look Unless Alerted – UCONN/Cincy, App/S. Alabama, Okla/Bay, KSU/UT, UCF/Pitt, UGA/Tenn, Aub/So. Miss, Vandy/Tenn Tech, and NW/UM. These are bad games or blowouts that aren’t worth watching unless you notice everybody on twitter talking about it.

The rest are all either close or interesting in some way. I don’t know what Troy is right now, between the beat downs Nebraska and Oklahoma State took this week I have questions about their biggest win and loss so far this year. This game against Coastal should continue to sort that out. ECU and ODU both pulled impressive performances against better opponents this week and, although ODU’s was more impressive it’ll be interesting to see what a double hangover looks like. Virginia/NC State hangs out on here because UVA refuses to put together a full game of any sort of dominance and NC State was shockingly dominant on the road at Marshall last week. Louisville-FSU probably belongs on the don’t look list, but I kept it here because it’ll show us a little more about the ‘Noles progress (NIU was a pretty good performance) and give a barometer matchup with regards to UVA. Wake is coming off of back to back disappointing performances against Notre Dame and BC and Rice shouldn’t provide too much resistance, but if they do, it’s time to get worried about where Wake is in regard to this season. Nebraska/Purdue might be fun, or not, and might tell us everything, or nothing. And that’s fun right? Right!?!? I left WMU-MiOh on here because I just want to find out what kind of team the Broncos are, because right now I honestly don’t know. Lastly, Air Force-Nevada should be some fun MWC-tion and like the fourth screen experience.

Evening Slate (17:00-18:30)

WSU-Utah are two evenly matched teams that are going to play an ugly, and close, football game. Watch the last 6 minutes of game time. Georgia Southern-Ark State should be fun because we get to sort out the top of the Sun Belt and because it’s two teams with divergent styles of play; Southern wants to go fast, Arkansas State wants to score a bunch. Miss State-Florida is a worst version of WSU-Utah that’s less competitive but will be jarringly weird football considering the Mullen-MSU relationship. UNM-Liberty is a don’t look game, as are UAB-Charlotte and UTSA-UTEP. EMU-NIU should be a fun game if NIU can find anything on offense in conference play. FAU heads to MTSU after getting handled by UCF but they should pay it forward against MTSU. TCU-Iowa State is a battle of two teams that desperately need a win to save their seasons and any hope of halfway decent bowl consideration. Loser leaves here with 3 losses on the year and an 0-2 start to conference season. Oh, how I’d hate to be Duke, and especially Duke’s offense, this week. Va Tech will be out for blood after an upset loss to ODU. We get to watch Boise’s offense play Wyoming’s defense this week, while we try to forget the other half of this game. Watch Hawaii at SJSU if only because they’re going to score at least 60 and it’s going to be entertaining. I’m going to single handedly start North Texas watch and based on La Tech’s offense and their performance against LSU this should be a really nice test for the Mean Green. The 7:30 slate might be the best single set of games of the season so far. Kentucky-South Caorlina will either set up a showdown for the SEC East title between UGA and Kentucky or will set the stage for UGA to run away with the division. Penn State-Ohio State is a playoff game for all intents and purposes, and with the Wisconsin loss to BYU it’s a pretty important game nationally for the Big Ten who rebounded in week 4 but still shit the bed two weeks ago. Stanford went to OT this week to top Oregon on the road and has to turn around and face undefeated Notre Dame immediately. ND got their shit together against Wake on Saturday but have not faced a team of Stanford’s caliber all year (yes, I know about the Michigan game, they were a mess on offense Stanford isn’t.). I mean good luck being able to flip through all of that while also hitting less important but interesting games on the side.

The Late Slate (After 19:30)

So, the late slate starts a bit early this week, but I didn’t want to short change UW-BYU and bury it under the 18:30 slate. BYU is going to shorten the game and Washington hasn’t exactly been putting teams away this season. Let’s see if BYU can go 2-0 against UW schools. LSU-Miss has a chance to be a SEC after dark game. Yes, that’s not a thing, I don’t care. This game could be a problem for an LSU team that’s is incredibly inefficient on offense and is welcoming an offense lead by Jordan Ta’amu that can score in a flash when properly functioning. Bama cleaned house against the Rebels, can LSU? Arizona State gets a night off when it welcomes Oregon State, and if the Devils take that approach, they might still win, but the Beavers aren’t playing horribly under Jonathan Smith in year 1 and with recent disappointments this could be a tricky spot for Herm and company. Arizona-USC has all the makings of #PAC12AfterDark. It’s a matchup of two underperforming teams in the middle of the desert in the middle of the night (for everybody but the players on the field) and involves a Khalil Tate that’s hopefully getting healthier. The sneaky game of the night is Fresno-Toledo. This is a fun mid-major matchup relatively akin to a bracket buster game in the CBB. It won’t be your first screen game but keep it in your rotation. The last game of the night, the weekend, and the late slate is Cal-Oregon. This is your official #Pac12AfterDark game. There will be points, there will be Justin Herbert, there will be an Oregon letdown from the Stanford game that allows Cal to be competitive far later into the game than should be allowed considering the talent of both teams and especially the quality disparity at quarterback. Plan your Sunday morning accordingly because this looks like a late slate that goes all night.

Home	Away	Home Rating	Away Rating	My Spread	Fav. Win%	Date	Time	TV
Miami (FL)	North Carolina	15.704	-6.469	25.951	77.9%	9/27	19:00	ESPN
Tulane	Memphis	-9.021	8.658	-15.886	67.2%	9/28	19:00	ESPN2
Colorado	UCLA	3.849	-3.011	10.241	61.2%	9/28	20:00	FS1
Alabama	Louisiana	33.054	-14.369	52.926	100.0%	9/29	11:00	SECN
Texas A&M	Arkansas	9.869	-6.888	16.758	68.1%	9/29	11:00	ESPN
Michigan State	Central Michigan	24.215	-15.682	44.492	98.0%	9/29	11:00	FS1
Kansas	Oklahoma State	-6.642	7.710	-12.659	63.8%	9/29	11:00	-
Boston College	Temple	12.109	-3.474	18.282	69.7%	9/29	11:00	ESPNU
Clemson	Syracuse	28.287	8.139	25.036	76.9%	9/29	11:00	ABC
Georgia Tech	Bowling Green	-3.055	-21.707	22.099	73.8%	9/29	11:00	ACCN
Texas Tech	West Virginia	8.836	8.422	4.321	55.0%	9/29	11:00	ESPN2
Buffalo	Army	7.943	3.915	5.266	56.0%	9/29	11:00	CBSSN
Rutgers	Indiana	-13.989	4.868	-15.773	67.0%	9/29	11:00	BTN
NC State	Virginia	16.034	5.165	15.012	66.2%	9/29	11:20	ACCN
Ball State	Kent State	-15.231	-14.027	-0.608	51.1%	9/29	13:00	EPSN+
Georgia State	ULM	-18.952	-6.990	-10.454	61.4%	9/29	13:00	ESPN+
Ohio	UMASS	-6.199	-7.792	4.088	54.7%	9/29	13:00	ESPN3
Connecticut	Cincinnati	-17.258	5.353	-20.891	72.5%	9/29	14:30	CBSSN
Appalachian State	South Alabama	0.914	-13.314	17.188	68.5%	9/29	14:30	ESPN+
Troy	Coastal Carolina	4.172	-6.525	13.048	64.2%	9/29	14:30	ESPN3
East Carolina	Old Dominion	-21.611	-9.817	-8.830	59.7%	9/29	14:30	ESPN3
Oklahoma	Baylor	27.130	-1.635	33.873	86.4%	9/29	14:30	ABC
Kansas State	Texas	-1.909	11.935	-9.716	60.6%	9/29	14:30	FS1
Louisville	Florida State	-3.263	1.206	-0.946	51.4%	9/29	14:30	ESPN2
UCF	Pittsburgh	19.818	-3.012	25.643	77.5%	9/29	14:30	ESPNU
Wake Forest	Rice	2.606	-22.355	27.828	79.9%	9/29	14:30	ACCN
Nebraska	Purdue	-8.615	1.200	-4.515	55.2%	9/29	14:30	BTN
Miami (OH)	Western Michigan	-11.610	-4.225	-5.564	56.3%	9/29	14:30	ESPN+
Georgia	Tennessee	29.517	-10.085	44.842	98.3%	9/29	14:30	CBS
Air Force	Nevada	-11.833	-9.927	0.140	50.6%	9/29	15:00	ESPNN
Auburn	Southern Miss	17.530	-7.232	29.797	82.0%	9/29	15:00	SECN
Vanderbilt	Tennessee Tech	-0.075	-22.636	25.242	-	9/29	15:00	SECN
Northwestern	Michigan	8.182	20.722	-9.929	60.9%	9/29	15:30	FOX
Washington State	Utah	9.566	6.523	6.210	57.0%	9/29	17:00	P12N
Georgia Southern	Arkansas State	-4.326	3.606	-5.997	56.7%	9/29	17:00	ESPN+
Mississippi State	Florida	16.674	10.566	10.188	61.1%	9/29	17:00	ESPN
New Mexico	Liberty	-7.979	-1.974	-4.496	55.2%	9/29	17:00	-
Eastern Michigan	Northern Illinois	-3.758	-6.853	4.129	54.8%	9/29	17:00	ESPN+
UAB	Charlotte	-5.226	-17.708	13.626	64.8%	9/29	18:00	ESPN3
Middle Tennessee	FAU	-8.015	2.448	-9.175	60.1%	9/29	18:00	-
UTSA	UTEP	-18.608	-35.169	17.648	69.0%	9/29	18:00	ESPN+
TCU	Iowa State	9.860	4.024	9.623	60.5%	9/29	18:00	ESPNU
Duke	Virginia Tech	14.959	8.443	8.918	59.8%	9/29	18:00	ESPN2
SMU	Houston Baptist	-3.109	-22.636	21.442	-	9/29	18:00	ESPN3
Wyoming	Boise State	-2.301	17.738	-18.163	69.6%	9/29	18:00	CBSSN
San Jose State	Hawaii	-28.606	4.525	-32.044	84.4%	9/29	18:00	-
FIU	Arkansas - PB	-3.680	-22.636	20.718	-	9/29	18:30	ESPN+
North Texas	Louisiana Tech	18.416	2.434	17.887	69.3%	9/29	18:30	-
WKU	Marshall	-13.048	0.965	-11.947	63.0%	9/29	18:30	-
Kentucky	South Carolina	15.493	15.787	3.611	54.2%	9/29	18:30	SECN
Penn State	Ohio State	24.724	25.890	4.341	55.0%	9/29	18:30	ABC
Notre Dame	Stanford	25.861	24.461	6.230	57.0%	9/29	18:30	NBC
Washington	BYU	18.964	6.057	17.192	68.5%	9/29	19:30	FOX
LSU	Mississippi	17.287	6.931	15.734	67.0%	9/29	20:00	ESPN
Arizona State	Oregon State	6.619	-15.871	26.033	78.0%	9/29	21:00	P12N
Arizona	USC	0.430	12.581	-8.957	59.8%	9/29	21:30	ESPN2
Fresno State	Toledo	11.254	1.064	12.524	63.6%	9/29	21:30	ESPNU
California	Oregon	10.486	5.656	7.411	58.2%	9/29	21:30	FS1