So, an abbreviated intro to the
college football season this year as being a bit more in depth with my fantasy
projections and rankings took more time than I anticipated. This is my starter
sheet (Yes I UF-UM & UA-UH have happened those results aren’t factored into
this sheet) for the season my initial ranks take into account a handful of
things: (From left to right) W-L Is an adjustment of the wins and losses for
strength of opponent last year, Yards/Touches/Line Starts/Tackles/PDs returning
are all adjusted against the average across college football and the spread of
each category and summed together to get Sum Returning, Red Zone Eff. is modified like true field go percentage and I’ve
found is rather constant year over year and lastly recruiting rankings,
adjusted for importance of each class and adjusted in comparison to the average
college team. Those 8 categories are then summed to make the initial rating
which is then adjusted throughout the season. Below this table I’ve also
included the home field advantages (HFA) for each team as well.
Team
|
Conf.
|
Div.
|
W-L
|
Sum
Ret.
|
Red
Zone
Eff
|
Recr.
|
Tot. Pts
|
Georgia
|
SEC
|
East
|
25.59
|
1.29
|
1.46
|
2.47
|
32.12
|
Clemson
|
ACC
|
Atl
|
25.85
|
-0.01
|
3.18
|
1.75
|
30.77
|
Alabama
|
SEC
|
West
|
26.05
|
-0.99
|
2.44
|
2.49
|
29.00
|
Notre Dame
|
Indep
|
-
|
23.41
|
-2.37
|
1.20
|
1.58
|
21.44
|
Oklahoma
|
BXII
|
-
|
22.68
|
-0.98
|
0.20
|
1.72
|
22.65
|
Ohio State
|
B1G
|
East
|
19.78
|
-1.13
|
1.08
|
2.74
|
21.34
|
LSU
|
SEC
|
West
|
15.36
|
4.19
|
0.96
|
1.96
|
26.66
|
Michigan
|
B1G
|
East
|
18.94
|
-1.13
|
1.39
|
1.79
|
19.86
|
UCF
|
AAC
|
East
|
15.33
|
3.16
|
2.00
|
-0.02
|
23.64
|
Florida
|
SEC
|
East
|
14.40
|
2.98
|
1.30
|
1.60
|
23.25
|
Texas A&M
|
SEC
|
West
|
17.48
|
-1.35
|
1.68
|
1.50
|
17.97
|
Utah
|
PAC
|
South
|
13.55
|
2.56
|
0.84
|
0.57
|
20.08
|
Missouri
|
SEC
|
East
|
14.97
|
0.88
|
1.01
|
0.34
|
18.08
|
Auburn
|
SEC
|
West
|
12.24
|
1.63
|
1.41
|
1.73
|
18.64
|
Michigan State
|
B1G
|
East
|
9.06
|
3.49
|
0.68
|
0.79
|
17.52
|
Cincinnati
|
AAC
|
East
|
8.37
|
3.80
|
1.35
|
-0.06
|
17.25
|
South Carolina
|
SEC
|
East
|
11.43
|
1.29
|
-0.74
|
1.07
|
14.33
|
Oregon
|
PAC
|
North
|
4.24
|
6.09
|
0.82
|
1.26
|
18.50
|
Iowa State
|
BXII
|
-
|
9.84
|
1.90
|
0.18
|
0.15
|
13.98
|
Minnesota
|
B1G
|
West
|
4.47
|
5.49
|
1.52
|
0.28
|
17.25
|
Texas
|
BXII
|
-
|
13.47
|
-3.85
|
0.10
|
1.80
|
7.68
|
Syracuse
|
ACC
|
Atl
|
10.88
|
-1.49
|
1.82
|
0.07
|
9.78
|
Iowa
|
B1G
|
West
|
8.64
|
0.56
|
1.77
|
0.38
|
11.91
|
Penn State
|
B1G
|
East
|
13.43
|
-5.75
|
1.84
|
1.61
|
5.38
|
Mississippi State
|
SEC
|
West
|
13.12
|
-4.31
|
1.30
|
0.91
|
6.71
|
Washington
|
PAC
|
North
|
15.46
|
-6.84
|
1.01
|
1.20
|
4.00
|
Pittsburgh
|
ACC
|
Coa
|
12.94
|
-1.78
|
-0.83
|
0.45
|
9.00
|
Stanford
|
PAC
|
North
|
12.63
|
-3.39
|
0.18
|
1.09
|
7.13
|
Duke
|
ACC
|
Coa
|
10.49
|
-0.53
|
0.17
|
0.25
|
9.85
|
Kentucky
|
SEC
|
East
|
13.40
|
-3.72
|
0.07
|
0.61
|
6.65
|
Virginia Tech
|
ACC
|
Coa
|
4.39
|
5.45
|
-0.38
|
0.79
|
15.70
|
Tennessee
|
SEC
|
East
|
6.08
|
3.84
|
-0.96
|
1.35
|
14.16
|
Appalachian State
|
SuB
|
East
|
5.02
|
4.18
|
1.96
|
-1.04
|
14.30
|
Northwestern
|
B1G
|
West
|
12.48
|
-3.48
|
0.43
|
0.13
|
6.08
|
Boise State
|
MWC
|
Moun
|
9.39
|
-1.14
|
0.68
|
0.00
|
7.79
|
Indiana
|
B1G
|
East
|
4.85
|
4.59
|
-0.66
|
0.12
|
13.49
|
Wake Forest
|
ACC
|
Atl
|
5.07
|
3.10
|
0.64
|
-0.06
|
11.86
|
Baylor
|
BXII
|
-
|
4.24
|
3.09
|
0.71
|
0.56
|
11.68
|
Hawaii
|
MWC
|
West
|
1.69
|
8.36
|
-0.65
|
-0.81
|
16.96
|
Washington State
|
PAC
|
North
|
11.35
|
-5.40
|
1.76
|
0.18
|
2.50
|
Army
|
Indep
|
-
|
10.09
|
-3.53
|
2.02
|
-1.04
|
4.01
|
Northern Illinois
|
MAC
|
West
|
3.95
|
5.09
|
-0.53
|
-0.94
|
12.65
|
Florida State
|
ACC
|
Atl
|
6.45
|
0.76
|
-1.72
|
1.96
|
8.21
|
West Virginia
|
BXII
|
-
|
10.78
|
-4.05
|
0.37
|
0.34
|
3.40
|
TCU
|
BXII
|
-
|
7.23
|
-0.13
|
-0.51
|
0.82
|
7.28
|
Miami (FL)
|
ACC
|
Coa
|
6.89
|
-2.26
|
0.86
|
1.48
|
4.71
|
NC State
|
ACC
|
Atl
|
8.04
|
-3.73
|
1.81
|
0.47
|
2.85
|
Texas Tech
|
BXII
|
-
|
1.87
|
3.02
|
1.10
|
0.05
|
9.06
|
Western Michigan
|
MAC
|
West
|
-1.57
|
8.80
|
-0.75
|
-0.46
|
14.82
|
UCLA
|
PAC
|
South
|
3.00
|
3.53
|
-1.82
|
1.20
|
9.44
|
Virginia
|
ACC
|
Coa
|
2.31
|
2.45
|
0.83
|
0.06
|
8.10
|
Georgia Southern
|
SuB
|
East
|
4.04
|
1.68
|
0.10
|
-0.70
|
6.81
|
Vanderbilt
|
SEC
|
East
|
9.34
|
-4.01
|
-0.34
|
0.15
|
1.13
|
Arizona State
|
PAC
|
South
|
4.07
|
-0.16
|
0.15
|
0.67
|
4.56
|
Fresno State
|
MWC
|
West
|
11.28
|
-8.37
|
2.41
|
-0.66
|
-3.71
|
Purdue
|
B1G
|
West
|
7.45
|
-2.59
|
-0.27
|
0.01
|
2.02
|
Oklahoma State
|
BXII
|
-
|
4.64
|
-2.33
|
1.41
|
0.46
|
1.84
|
FIU
|
CUSA
|
East
|
-0.68
|
5.32
|
-0.15
|
-0.51
|
9.30
|
Boston College
|
ACC
|
Atl
|
6.65
|
-2.23
|
-0.26
|
-0.18
|
1.74
|
California
|
PAC
|
North
|
1.68
|
1.65
|
-0.19
|
0.25
|
5.05
|
Louisville
|
ACC
|
Atl
|
-1.06
|
6.05
|
-2.15
|
0.50
|
9.38
|
San Diego State
|
MWC
|
West
|
2.28
|
2.02
|
-0.66
|
-0.44
|
5.21
|
Utah State
|
MWC
|
Moun
|
5.04
|
-2.33
|
1.37
|
-0.97
|
0.79
|
Georgia Tech
|
ACC
|
Coa
|
5.32
|
-2.92
|
0.50
|
0.14
|
0.13
|
BYU
|
Indep
|
-
|
3.27
|
-0.39
|
0.35
|
-0.19
|
2.66
|
USC
|
PAC
|
South
|
2.23
|
-1.38
|
-0.17
|
2.04
|
1.34
|
Temple
|
AAC
|
East
|
2.64
|
0.50
|
0.06
|
-0.62
|
3.09
|
Southern Miss
|
CUSA
|
West
|
-5.98
|
8.68
|
0.46
|
-0.51
|
11.34
|
Kansas State
|
BXII
|
-
|
2.36
|
0.81
|
-0.52
|
-0.14
|
3.32
|
Wisconsin
|
B1G
|
West
|
3.98
|
-2.89
|
0.88
|
0.50
|
-0.42
|
Maryland
|
B1G
|
East
|
3.40
|
-1.35
|
-0.81
|
0.70
|
0.60
|
Arizona
|
PAC
|
South
|
-2.36
|
4.41
|
-0.46
|
0.18
|
6.17
|
Nebraska
|
B1G
|
West
|
1.81
|
-0.44
|
-0.70
|
1.00
|
1.23
|
Troy
|
SuB
|
East
|
3.66
|
-2.11
|
0.00
|
-0.75
|
-1.31
|
Marshall
|
CUSA
|
East
|
0.30
|
0.37
|
0.46
|
-0.32
|
1.17
|
Oregon State
|
PAC
|
North
|
-5.27
|
7.04
|
-1.12
|
0.07
|
7.75
|
Tulane
|
AAC
|
West
|
-0.44
|
2.13
|
-0.47
|
-0.59
|
2.77
|
Louisiana
|
SuB
|
West
|
-0.26
|
2.38
|
-0.79
|
-1.07
|
2.65
|
Memphis
|
AAC
|
West
|
-2.94
|
2.41
|
0.46
|
-0.24
|
2.11
|
USF
|
AAC
|
East
|
-1.19
|
1.37
|
-0.77
|
-0.23
|
0.55
|
ULM
|
SuB
|
West
|
-5.13
|
5.33
|
-0.24
|
-1.10
|
4.19
|
Wyoming
|
MWC
|
Moun
|
1.45
|
-1.44
|
-1.05
|
-1.13
|
-3.60
|
Arkansas State
|
SuB
|
West
|
0.46
|
-2.56
|
0.59
|
-0.80
|
-4.86
|
Toledo
|
MAC
|
West
|
-3.00
|
0.14
|
0.86
|
-0.41
|
-2.27
|
Ohio
|
MAC
|
East
|
-0.81
|
-3.06
|
2.33
|
-1.08
|
-5.69
|
Mississippi
|
SEC
|
West
|
2.04
|
-5.06
|
-0.79
|
1.08
|
-7.78
|
Air Force
|
MWC
|
Moun
|
-6.93
|
3.92
|
1.26
|
-1.09
|
1.08
|
Nevada
|
MWC
|
West
|
0.97
|
-3.58
|
0.07
|
-0.76
|
-6.88
|
Buffalo
|
MAC
|
East
|
2.12
|
-5.70
|
1.34
|
-1.36
|
-9.30
|
Houston
|
AAC
|
West
|
-2.06
|
-0.87
|
-0.64
|
-0.04
|
-4.47
|
SMU
|
AAC
|
West
|
-2.03
|
-1.05
|
-0.25
|
-0.46
|
-4.84
|
Liberty
|
Indep
|
-
|
-6.78
|
4.93
|
-0.02
|
-1.94
|
1.13
|
North Texas
|
CUSA
|
West
|
-4.70
|
0.58
|
1.23
|
-1.00
|
-3.31
|
Colorado
|
PAC
|
South
|
-4.63
|
0.35
|
-0.13
|
0.23
|
-3.83
|
UAB
|
CUSA
|
West
|
2.33
|
-7.76
|
1.29
|
-0.78
|
-12.67
|
Coastal Carolina
|
SuB
|
East
|
-1.76
|
-1.33
|
-0.79
|
-1.22
|
-6.42
|
Charlotte
|
CUSA
|
East
|
-7.26
|
3.33
|
-0.09
|
-1.14
|
-1.84
|
Middle Tennessee
|
CUSA
|
East
|
1.85
|
-6.61
|
0.09
|
-0.77
|
-12.06
|
Louisiana Tech
|
CUSA
|
West
|
-9.35
|
4.16
|
0.49
|
-0.62
|
-1.16
|
Illinois
|
B1G
|
West
|
-7.96
|
2.35
|
-1.31
|
0.07
|
-4.50
|
Arkansas
|
SEC
|
West
|
-5.25
|
-1.07
|
-1.71
|
0.68
|
-8.42
|
Eastern Michigan
|
MAC
|
West
|
-3.22
|
-3.89
|
0.45
|
-1.17
|
-11.72
|
Ball State
|
MAC
|
West
|
-11.01
|
4.81
|
-1.27
|
-1.03
|
-3.70
|
Miami (OH)
|
MAC
|
East
|
-2.36
|
-5.51
|
0.15
|
-1.00
|
-14.22
|
Tulsa
|
AAC
|
West
|
-13.40
|
5.02
|
-0.09
|
-0.80
|
-4.24
|
FAU
|
CUSA
|
East
|
-5.41
|
-3.32
|
-0.33
|
-0.40
|
-12.78
|
Georgia State
|
SuB
|
East
|
-12.73
|
4.49
|
-0.55
|
-0.93
|
-5.23
|
East Carolina
|
AAC
|
East
|
-10.37
|
2.23
|
-1.14
|
-0.49
|
-7.55
|
North Carolina
|
ACC
|
Coa
|
-7.89
|
-2.22
|
-0.62
|
0.79
|
-12.15
|
Texas State
|
SuB
|
West
|
-18.03
|
8.70
|
-0.97
|
-1.03
|
-2.64
|
UNLV
|
MWC
|
West
|
-10.37
|
0.67
|
-0.80
|
-0.92
|
-10.75
|
Navy
|
AAC
|
West
|
-3.23
|
-6.94
|
-0.74
|
-0.83
|
-18.68
|
Rutgers
|
B1G
|
East
|
-10.14
|
-2.25
|
-1.44
|
0.05
|
-16.03
|
UTSA
|
CUSA
|
West
|
-12.62
|
1.15
|
-1.73
|
-0.65
|
-12.71
|
San Jose State
|
MWC
|
West
|
-11.86
|
0.44
|
-1.64
|
-0.83
|
-13.46
|
Kansas
|
BXII
|
-
|
-8.56
|
-0.08
|
-1.52
|
-0.25
|
-10.50
|
Connecticut
|
AAC
|
East
|
-14.43
|
3.40
|
-2.77
|
-0.96
|
-11.35
|
Kent State
|
MAC
|
East
|
-18.41
|
6.13
|
-1.23
|
-1.21
|
-8.58
|
Akron
|
MAC
|
East
|
-9.75
|
-3.30
|
-1.90
|
-1.37
|
-19.62
|
New Mexico State
|
Indep
|
-
|
-16.63
|
1.39
|
-1.61
|
-1.33
|
-16.80
|
WKU
|
CUSA
|
East
|
-21.79
|
3.87
|
-0.34
|
-0.61
|
-14.98
|
South Alabama
|
SuB
|
West
|
-10.84
|
-5.77
|
-1.51
|
-1.09
|
-24.98
|
Colorado State
|
MWC
|
Moun
|
-12.58
|
-5.77
|
-0.50
|
-0.37
|
-24.99
|
Bowling Green
|
MAC
|
East
|
-15.58
|
-1.06
|
-1.77
|
-0.87
|
-20.35
|
UMASS
|
Indep
|
-
|
-5.47
|
-11.86
|
-1.40
|
-0.98
|
-31.57
|
Rice
|
CUSA
|
West
|
-16.79
|
-1.22
|
-1.95
|
-1.23
|
-22.41
|
Old Dominion
|
CUSA
|
East
|
-14.73
|
-6.95
|
0.60
|
-1.18
|
-29.21
|
New Mexico
|
MWC
|
Moun
|
-12.07
|
-7.86
|
-1.36
|
-1.13
|
-30.28
|
Central Michigan
|
MAC
|
West
|
-21.71
|
-0.30
|
-1.47
|
-1.07
|
-24.85
|
UTEP
|
CUSA
|
West
|
-27.87
|
-4.60
|
-1.37
|
-1.34
|
-39.78
|
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