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Monday, August 26, 2019

2019 College Football: Season Preview

So, an abbreviated intro to the college football season this year as being a bit more in depth with my fantasy projections and rankings took more time than I anticipated. This is my starter sheet (Yes I UF-UM & UA-UH have happened those results aren’t factored into this sheet) for the season my initial ranks take into account a handful of things: (From left to right) W-L Is an adjustment of the wins and losses for strength of opponent last year, Yards/Touches/Line Starts/Tackles/PDs returning are all adjusted against the average across college football and the spread of each category and summed together to get Sum Returning, Red Zone Eff. is modified like true field go percentage and I’ve found is rather constant year over year and lastly recruiting rankings, adjusted for importance of each class and adjusted in comparison to the average college team. Those 8 categories are then summed to make the initial rating which is then adjusted throughout the season. Below this table I’ve also included the home field advantages (HFA) for each team as well.

Team
Conf.
Div.
W-L
Sum
Ret.
Red
Zone
Eff
Recr.
Tot. Pts
Georgia
SEC
East
25.59
1.29
1.46
2.47
32.12
Clemson
ACC
Atl
25.85
-0.01
3.18
1.75
30.77
Alabama
SEC
West
26.05
-0.99
2.44
2.49
29.00
Notre Dame
Indep
-
23.41
-2.37
1.20
1.58
21.44
Oklahoma
BXII
-
22.68
-0.98
0.20
1.72
22.65
Ohio State
B1G
East
19.78
-1.13
1.08
2.74
21.34
LSU
SEC
West
15.36
4.19
0.96
1.96
26.66
Michigan
B1G
East
18.94
-1.13
1.39
1.79
19.86
UCF
AAC
East
15.33
3.16
2.00
-0.02
23.64
Florida
SEC
East
14.40
2.98
1.30
1.60
23.25
Texas A&M
SEC
West
17.48
-1.35
1.68
1.50
17.97
Utah
PAC
South
13.55
2.56
0.84
0.57
20.08
Missouri
SEC
East
14.97
0.88
1.01
0.34
18.08
Auburn
SEC
West
12.24
1.63
1.41
1.73
18.64
Michigan State
B1G
East
9.06
3.49
0.68
0.79
17.52
Cincinnati
AAC
East
8.37
3.80
1.35
-0.06
17.25
South Carolina
SEC
East
11.43
1.29
-0.74
1.07
14.33
Oregon
PAC
North
4.24
6.09
0.82
1.26
18.50
Iowa State
BXII
-
9.84
1.90
0.18
0.15
13.98
Minnesota
B1G
West
4.47
5.49
1.52
0.28
17.25
Texas
BXII
-
13.47
-3.85
0.10
1.80
7.68
Syracuse
ACC
Atl
10.88
-1.49
1.82
0.07
9.78
Iowa
B1G
West
8.64
0.56
1.77
0.38
11.91
Penn State
B1G
East
13.43
-5.75
1.84
1.61
5.38
Mississippi State
SEC
West
13.12
-4.31
1.30
0.91
6.71
Washington
PAC
North
15.46
-6.84
1.01
1.20
4.00
Pittsburgh
ACC
Coa
12.94
-1.78
-0.83
0.45
9.00
Stanford
PAC
North
12.63
-3.39
0.18
1.09
7.13
Duke
ACC
Coa
10.49
-0.53
0.17
0.25
9.85
Kentucky
SEC
East
13.40
-3.72
0.07
0.61
6.65
Virginia Tech
ACC
Coa
4.39
5.45
-0.38
0.79
15.70
Tennessee
SEC
East
6.08
3.84
-0.96
1.35
14.16
Appalachian State
SuB
East
5.02
4.18
1.96
-1.04
14.30
Northwestern
B1G
West
12.48
-3.48
0.43
0.13
6.08
Boise State
MWC
Moun
9.39
-1.14
0.68
0.00
7.79
Indiana
B1G
East
4.85
4.59
-0.66
0.12
13.49
Wake Forest
ACC
Atl
5.07
3.10
0.64
-0.06
11.86
Baylor
BXII
-
4.24
3.09
0.71
0.56
11.68
Hawaii
MWC
West
1.69
8.36
-0.65
-0.81
16.96
Washington State
PAC
North
11.35
-5.40
1.76
0.18
2.50
Army
Indep
-
10.09
-3.53
2.02
-1.04
4.01
Northern Illinois
MAC
West
3.95
5.09
-0.53
-0.94
12.65
Florida State
ACC
Atl
6.45
0.76
-1.72
1.96
8.21
West Virginia
BXII
-
10.78
-4.05
0.37
0.34
3.40
TCU
BXII
-
7.23
-0.13
-0.51
0.82
7.28
Miami (FL)
ACC
Coa
6.89
-2.26
0.86
1.48
4.71
NC State
ACC
Atl
8.04
-3.73
1.81
0.47
2.85
Texas Tech
BXII
-
1.87
3.02
1.10
0.05
9.06
Western Michigan
MAC
West
-1.57
8.80
-0.75
-0.46
14.82
UCLA
PAC
South
3.00
3.53
-1.82
1.20
9.44
Virginia
ACC
Coa
2.31
2.45
0.83
0.06
8.10
Georgia Southern
SuB
East
4.04
1.68
0.10
-0.70
6.81
Vanderbilt
SEC
East
9.34
-4.01
-0.34
0.15
1.13
Arizona State
PAC
South
4.07
-0.16
0.15
0.67
4.56
Fresno State
MWC
West
11.28
-8.37
2.41
-0.66
-3.71
Purdue
B1G
West
7.45
-2.59
-0.27
0.01
2.02
Oklahoma State
BXII
-
4.64
-2.33
1.41
0.46
1.84
FIU
CUSA
East
-0.68
5.32
-0.15
-0.51
9.30
Boston College
ACC
Atl
6.65
-2.23
-0.26
-0.18
1.74
California
PAC
North
1.68
1.65
-0.19
0.25
5.05
Louisville
ACC
Atl
-1.06
6.05
-2.15
0.50
9.38
San Diego State
MWC
West
2.28
2.02
-0.66
-0.44
5.21
Utah State
MWC
Moun
5.04
-2.33
1.37
-0.97
0.79
Georgia Tech
ACC
Coa
5.32
-2.92
0.50
0.14
0.13
BYU
Indep
-
3.27
-0.39
0.35
-0.19
2.66
USC
PAC
South
2.23
-1.38
-0.17
2.04
1.34
Temple
AAC
East
2.64
0.50
0.06
-0.62
3.09
Southern Miss
CUSA
West
-5.98
8.68
0.46
-0.51
11.34
Kansas State
BXII
-
2.36
0.81
-0.52
-0.14
3.32
Wisconsin
B1G
West
3.98
-2.89
0.88
0.50
-0.42
Maryland
B1G
East
3.40
-1.35
-0.81
0.70
0.60
Arizona
PAC
South
-2.36
4.41
-0.46
0.18
6.17
Nebraska
B1G
West
1.81
-0.44
-0.70
1.00
1.23
Troy
SuB
East
3.66
-2.11
0.00
-0.75
-1.31
Marshall
CUSA
East
0.30
0.37
0.46
-0.32
1.17
Oregon State
PAC
North
-5.27
7.04
-1.12
0.07
7.75
Tulane
AAC
West
-0.44
2.13
-0.47
-0.59
2.77
Louisiana
SuB
West
-0.26
2.38
-0.79
-1.07
2.65
Memphis
AAC
West
-2.94
2.41
0.46
-0.24
2.11
USF
AAC
East
-1.19
1.37
-0.77
-0.23
0.55
ULM
SuB
West
-5.13
5.33
-0.24
-1.10
4.19
Wyoming
MWC
Moun
1.45
-1.44
-1.05
-1.13
-3.60
Arkansas State
SuB
West
0.46
-2.56
0.59
-0.80
-4.86
Toledo
MAC
West
-3.00
0.14
0.86
-0.41
-2.27
Ohio
MAC
East
-0.81
-3.06
2.33
-1.08
-5.69
Mississippi
SEC
West
2.04
-5.06
-0.79
1.08
-7.78
Air Force
MWC
Moun
-6.93
3.92
1.26
-1.09
1.08
Nevada
MWC
West
0.97
-3.58
0.07
-0.76
-6.88
Buffalo
MAC
East
2.12
-5.70
1.34
-1.36
-9.30
Houston
AAC
West
-2.06
-0.87
-0.64
-0.04
-4.47
SMU
AAC
West
-2.03
-1.05
-0.25
-0.46
-4.84
Liberty
Indep
-
-6.78
4.93
-0.02
-1.94
1.13
North Texas
CUSA
West
-4.70
0.58
1.23
-1.00
-3.31
Colorado
PAC
South
-4.63
0.35
-0.13
0.23
-3.83
UAB
CUSA
West
2.33
-7.76
1.29
-0.78
-12.67
Coastal Carolina
SuB
East
-1.76
-1.33
-0.79
-1.22
-6.42
Charlotte
CUSA
East
-7.26
3.33
-0.09
-1.14
-1.84
Middle Tennessee
CUSA
East
1.85
-6.61
0.09
-0.77
-12.06
Louisiana Tech
CUSA
West
-9.35
4.16
0.49
-0.62
-1.16
Illinois
B1G
West
-7.96
2.35
-1.31
0.07
-4.50
Arkansas
SEC
West
-5.25
-1.07
-1.71
0.68
-8.42
Eastern Michigan
MAC
West
-3.22
-3.89
0.45
-1.17
-11.72
Ball State
MAC
West
-11.01
4.81
-1.27
-1.03
-3.70
Miami (OH)
MAC
East
-2.36
-5.51
0.15
-1.00
-14.22
Tulsa
AAC
West
-13.40
5.02
-0.09
-0.80
-4.24
FAU
CUSA
East
-5.41
-3.32
-0.33
-0.40
-12.78
Georgia State
SuB
East
-12.73
4.49
-0.55
-0.93
-5.23
East Carolina
AAC
East
-10.37
2.23
-1.14
-0.49
-7.55
North Carolina
ACC
Coa
-7.89
-2.22
-0.62
0.79
-12.15
Texas State
SuB
West
-18.03
8.70
-0.97
-1.03
-2.64
UNLV
MWC
West
-10.37
0.67
-0.80
-0.92
-10.75
Navy
AAC
West
-3.23
-6.94
-0.74
-0.83
-18.68
Rutgers
B1G
East
-10.14
-2.25
-1.44
0.05
-16.03
UTSA
CUSA
West
-12.62
1.15
-1.73
-0.65
-12.71
San Jose State
MWC
West
-11.86
0.44
-1.64
-0.83
-13.46
Kansas
BXII
-
-8.56
-0.08
-1.52
-0.25
-10.50
Connecticut
AAC
East
-14.43
3.40
-2.77
-0.96
-11.35
Kent State
MAC
East
-18.41
6.13
-1.23
-1.21
-8.58
Akron
MAC
East
-9.75
-3.30
-1.90
-1.37
-19.62
New Mexico State
Indep
-
-16.63
1.39
-1.61
-1.33
-16.80
WKU
CUSA
East
-21.79
3.87
-0.34
-0.61
-14.98
South Alabama
SuB
West
-10.84
-5.77
-1.51
-1.09
-24.98
Colorado State
MWC
Moun
-12.58
-5.77
-0.50
-0.37
-24.99
Bowling Green
MAC
East
-15.58
-1.06
-1.77
-0.87
-20.35
UMASS
Indep
-
-5.47
-11.86
-1.40
-0.98
-31.57
Rice
CUSA
West
-16.79
-1.22
-1.95
-1.23
-22.41
Old Dominion
CUSA
East
-14.73
-6.95
0.60
-1.18
-29.21
New Mexico
MWC
Moun
-12.07
-7.86
-1.36
-1.13
-30.28
Central Michigan
MAC
West
-21.71
-0.30
-1.47
-1.07
-24.85
UTEP
CUSA
West
-27.87
-4.60
-1.37
-1.34
-39.78



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